Wars & Rumours of Wars

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
I'm having a tough time coming up with a scenario in which Russia could use a nuclear weapon and somehow be better off for having done so. Doesn't mean they don't do their own weird calculus and come up with a different scenario but I'd think there would have to be some specific incident they could hang their hat on. A false flag operation to the conspiracy minded is not out of the realm of possibility, but this has already cost them severely and Ukrainian defenses have only improved. The chances of a Russkie gotterdammerung isn't zero but what would provoke it?

Also, is Putin actually still in charge or has he already been quietly replaced for 'health reasons' ?
 

1963

Noble
I'm having a tough time coming up with a scenario in which Russia could use a nuclear weapon and somehow be better off for having done so. Doesn't mean they don't do their own weird calculus and come up with a different scenario but I'd think there would have to be some specific incident they could hang their hat on. A false flag operation to the conspiracy minded is not out of the realm of possibility, but this has already cost them severely and Ukrainian defenses have only improved. The chances of a Russkie gotterdammerung isn't zero but what would provoke it?

Also, is Putin actually still in charge or has he already been quietly replaced for 'health reasons' ?

You know PF? ... I genuinely think that this could be it! apart from actually being invaded by the Chinese because they're defence capabilities have been so depleted in a year or so...what else could be the provocation for using these hitherto deadly ornaments other than the threat of them being ignored!?... This is in my opinion, an even more dangerous juncture of mankind's prospective future than the Cuban Missile crisis! .... Call me a wimp if you like... but i'm worried for the safety of my kids and grandkids! :Unsure:

Cheers Buddy.
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
What ability does Britain have to intercede on behalf of Finland should Russia invade? Its military is the smallest it has been in centuries. Throughout the 20th century, until the 1990s, Britain maintained at least 300,000 active military personnel. Now there are only half that number across all branches, despite the population of the country being larger than ever. Many of its Navy's ships cannot leave port, and of those that can, many are not up to full combat readiness, with equipment missing or unserviceable. Not that the Royal Navy would be impressive even if all of its ships were usable. And not that the conventional military threat posed by Russia is particularly formidable, either. However, it is not clear how a conventional conflict between nuclear powers could be ensured to stay conventional, and is thus unwise to provoke in any circumstance.

The main advantage of Great Britain is that it's weapon systems are much more modern then Russian. British submarines are quieter, its anti-tank missiles are 2 generations ahead of Russian, British tanks have all the mod-cons like night vision, networking etc., while T-72 tanks don't even have night vision. Britan got x2 brand spanking new aircraft carriers, while Russian's last carrier blew itself up due to poor maintenance. Typhoon's missiles have longest range in the world and it can wipe out Russian planes without even getting close to them. Not to mention Brimstone missile of which Typhoon can fire probably about 16 at once and wipe out whole Russian armored columns. Etc. etc.

War in Ukraine had proven that one doesn't need more soldiers, one just needs better quality modern weapon systems. Probably Britain can defeat Russia completely on its own.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
I would assume Finland has already made necessary preparations for this move given the circumstances?...

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Russia CUTS power supplies to Finland: Moscow-run state electricity company says it will stop supplying Helsinki at midnight over 'payment issues' amid tensions over NATO

Russia will suspend electricity supplies to Finland this weekend, a supplier said on Friday as tensions rise over Helsinki's NATO bid amid Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine. 'We are forced to suspend the electricity import starting from May 14,' said RAO Nordic, a subsidiary of Russian state energy holding Inter RAO. 'RAO Nordic is not able to make payments for the imported electricity from Russia.' The firm is not directly faced with Western sanctions over the invasion into Ukraine, Montel News reports.

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AD1184

Celestial
Turkey could be putting the brakes on Sweden and Finland's moves to join NATO.

Turkey not ‘positive’ about Finland, Sweden bids to join NATO, Erdoğan says

Turkey not ‘positive’ about Finland, Sweden bids to join NATO, Erdoğan says
Turkish president says he doesn’t want alliance to repeat ‘mistakes.’

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Friday his country doesn’t like the idea of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

Finland’s leaders announced Thursday their intention to pursue membership in the transatlantic military alliance “without delay.” Sweden is expected to follow suit in the coming days. But those moves, which come in response to Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, have sparked criticism in Turkey, which has been a NATO member since 1952.

“Right now, when it comes to Sweden and Finland, we follow the developments but not with a positive opinion,” Erdoğan told reporters in Istanbul, adding that he wouldn’t want to repeat what he claims were “mistakes,” including the admission of Greece into NATO. Without evidence, Erdoğan also accused the Nordic countries of harboring terrorists — a charge he often lobs at domestic opponents and Western countries during disagreements.
[...]​

The text of the North Atlantic Treaty, in article 10, states:

Article 10
The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument of accession.
Accession is not by majority agreement, but by unanimous agreement of all parties to the treaty. So, if Turkey does not want Finland, and/or Sweden to join, then they will not join. Of course, Erdogan could be causing an obstruction simply as a diplomatic ploy for gaining a quid pro quo out of the US or the other NATO members.

NATO is said, by its cheerleaders, to be about defending freedom from autocracy. However, there is notably an autocrat, Recep Erdogan, leading NATO member Turkey.

Erdogan has enjoyed warmer relations with Putin than other NATO members in recent years, being accused of undermining the NATO agreement by purchasing the Russian S-400 air defence system, and Turkey's role in the F-35 fighter programme was axed as a result.

Turkey has, though, given meaningful assistance to Ukraine, also, in selling it the Bayraktar drones which have been extremely effective in destroying Russian military vehicles since the February invasion, and by blocking the Bosporus to the passage of Russian warships.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Turkey could be putting the brakes on Sweden and Finland's moves to join NATO.


For years it seems Erdogan has been quibbling about Scandinavian countries’ alleged support for Kurdish militants and other groups which Turkey labels as terrorists...Whenever he gets the chance he throws this up in Europe's face and here now again he's tossing that rotten egg...Europe and the US will put a pacifier in his mouth and give him a few concessions to gain back his support for the new memberships, which was never really lost in the first place, Erdogan is just showing his arse...

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nivek

As Above So Below
Finland has had a treaty with Russia since 1948 but when Finland joined the European Community it was replaced in the 90s with a new treaty...Given the circumstances today I would assume this treaty will be null and void...

...

Russia, Finland Sign Political Treaty

Finland and Russia signed a political treaty today that dissolved a 1948 agreement limiting Finland's role in Western Europe and obliging it to help defend the Soviet Union against attack.

The post-World War II treaty ruled out Finland's membership in the European Community and gave rise to the term "Finlandization" to describe a weak country accommodating itself to a strong one in order to maintain its autonomy.

The senior Russian official who signed today's accord said Russia had no problem with Finnish joining the EC.

"We will go along with it and support it," Deputy Prime Minister Gennadi Burbulis said at a news conference after signing the agreement with Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho.

Finland's parliament is currently debating whether the country should apply for EC membership. A decision is expected within a few months.

The new agreement -- Russia's first political treaty with a Western country -- replaces the 1948 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which required Finland to help defend the Soviet Union against any attack through Finnish territory.

Finland and Russia have now committed themselves not to use force against each other and to respect their 800-mile border. They also promise to respect the rights of each other's citizens on their territories.


The treaty is valid for 10 years and will automatically be renewed for five-year periods unless annulled by either party.

At the signing ceremony, Aho said Finland will aid Russia and participate in international projects aimed at alleviating its economic problems.

Aho and Burbulis also signed economic and regional trade agreements that call for development of border regions and the Russian areas around Murmansk, St. Petersburg and the autonomous region of Karelia.


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nivek

As Above So Below
A tacticle nuclear exchange seems to be less avoidable now...

Sweden announces it WILL follow Helsinki and apply to join NATO as furious Putin warns of a 'response' and 'moves nuclear-capable missiles to Finland's border

Magdalena Andersson, Swedish Prime Minister, confirmed that her country will join Finland in bidding to become part of NATO after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a re-think of security policy. She spoke a day after Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin made her own announcement, saying the 'historic' day marked the 'start of a new era.' The moves came despite threats of a 'response' from Vladimir Putin, who was today hosting a summit of ex-Soviet heads of state in Moscow, if NATO 'infrastructure' is allowed to encroach on Russia's border. He spoke as video revealed a battery of nuclear-capable Iskander missile moving through Russia, allegedly on their way to the Finnish border - putting them within striking distance of Helsinki.

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nivek

As Above So Below
This Skynews article is a bit interesting, a small peek into what is being said from the Chinese on their government sanitised and propaganda approved social media networks...

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The Great Translation Movement: 'Despicable' group accused of smearing China's image insists it's exposing online 'echo chamber'

They say they are just volunteers translating posts from the Chinese internet. State media call them "a despicable anti-China smear campaign" and "psychological warfare".

The Great Translation Movement (TGTM) started on Reddit after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Users posted translations of some of the nationalistic opinions trending on Chinese social media.

For instance, on a story about retired British soldiers volunteering to fight, the top-rated comment was "Demons disguised as angels. Laughable".

Another wrote: "Ukraine is a sharp knife stabbed at Russia in the hands of the United States."


The account has moved beyond the war in Ukraine to cover the lockdown in Shanghai, COVID conspiracy theories and online reaction to international news, such as an earthquake in Japan (to which one user reacted: "Wonderful, when will Mt Fuji erupt?"), as well as the casual racism that is often a feature of Chinese social media.

"We are just Chinese people who hate the Chinese echo chamber, and with a passion big enough to translate these comments over a sustained time," says a person behind the Twitter account, contacted by Sky News via direct messages, who wishes to remain anonymous.

They say a number of volunteers are involved, from different countries, and that Chinese tends to be their native language.

TGTM's popularity has prompted a fierce reaction from Chinese state media.

The Global Times, which is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has published a number of articles, describing the volunteers as people of Chinese descent who "hate their native country", accusing it of fuelling racism against Asians and saying that it cherry picks "nice and radical comments".

"The image of China and Chinese people in their depiction has been arrogant, populist, cruel and bloodthirsty," the Global Times wrote.

TGTM does agree with part of that.

"We did cherry pick our comments, but we cherry pick the most upvoted ones, which for the most of the time (well every time actually), happens to be some radical lunatics," TGTM told Sky News.

"The growing number of absurd comments on the Chinese internet we see today is a culmination of what the CCP intended them to be, the long-term effects of mass censorship and propaganda, the exclusion of the outside world exacerbated by the language barrier, the collectivist Confucian culture of unquestioningly obeying one's rulers no matter how despotic they may be, the memories of the student protesters' political consequences during the budding democracy of Tiananmen 1989, the destruction of scholarly thought and values during the Cultural Revolution."

(More on the link)





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nivek

As Above So Below
Julian Assange predicted the $40 Billion payment to Ukraine in 2011:
The real goal of war is to wash money out of United States and European tax bases into the hands of the trans-national security corporations. The goal is to have an endless war, not a successful war. Very soon it will become normal to have a constant war going on. Children will reach adulthood with the understanding there is always a war going on.


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Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Little bit off the current hot topic, but still quite fresh:



Addition:

Actually this dove tails into what Jullian Asagne was saying. War is just a money laundering opportunity to flush out wast amounts of tax payers money. It was the same during Vietnam war.

 
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Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow

Snipers don't use red dots. That would be idiotic because one would advertise where he's shooting from. Additionally, bullets don't fly in straight line but follow parabolic curve bot vertically and horizontally, so laser dot would be useless as an aid. Idea of snipers using red dots only comes from Hollywood movies. Totally fake ...
 
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