AD1184
Celestial
The authors here are selective in what data they choose to include and also count the discredited Stanford Santa Clara County antibody study and the dubious contemporaneous Los Angeles one.
Their 'analysis' is taking four figures of IFR from different antibody studies and averaging them. They conflate infection fatality rate (IFR) and case fatality rate (CFR), not understanding the difference. The early reports of the CFR of Covid-19 were not an estimate of the IFR. The CFR of influenza is an overestimate of the IFR of influenza, much like the CFR of Covid-19 is an overestimate of the IFR of Covid-19.
Antibody testing in the UK suggests an infection fatality rate between 0.8-1.0% (or higher, as the death certificate data arguably provide an underestimate).
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30135-3/fulltext
AD1184
Celestial
That's not very scientific of you.
nivek
As Above So Below
Is this proof China was in the grip of Covid MONTHS before it told the world? Satellite photographs of a hospital car park in coronavirus epicentre suggests pandemic was already taking hold last October
One satellite image shows Hubei Women and Children's Hospital car park in the city of Wuhan, China, in October 2018 (left, 393 cars marked in red). The other shows the same location almost exactly a year later, in October 2019 (right, 714 cars marked in red). Now spot the difference. That is what a team of researchers from Harvard and Boston Universities are doing. They have so far pored over 111 images of medical facilities in the place where the coronavirus pandemic began - and those pictures appear to reveal a trend.
Namely that, from August last year, something was making those medical facilities much busier than normal. This exercise in 'digital epidemiology' was published this week, adding to suspicions that the virus was making people ill far earlier than previously thought.
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One satellite image shows Hubei Women and Children's Hospital car park in the city of Wuhan, China, in October 2018 (left, 393 cars marked in red). The other shows the same location almost exactly a year later, in October 2019 (right, 714 cars marked in red). Now spot the difference. That is what a team of researchers from Harvard and Boston Universities are doing. They have so far pored over 111 images of medical facilities in the place where the coronavirus pandemic began - and those pictures appear to reveal a trend.
Namely that, from August last year, something was making those medical facilities much busier than normal. This exercise in 'digital epidemiology' was published this week, adding to suspicions that the virus was making people ill far earlier than previously thought.
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Dejan Corovic
As above, so bellow
I appreciate your opinion, but I was right in principle, only my execution was sloppy.
Granted!
But let's look at a run rate.
Spanish flue lasted more or less 2 years or 24 months. Our dear COVID-19 started beginning of February 2020, we are at the beginning of Jun 2020, let's call it 4 months. 24 divided by 4 equals 6, in both the Old and the New Testament. So, if we take the most pessimistic assumption that the death rate will stay constant for the next 20 months, we get 6 x 413,000 = 2.48 million. That is still 20.2 times less.
Sure, we can split hairs, but the principle still holds: "it is the science that saved our collective hide" And scientists should be bestowed with every social privilege they possibly can ask for.
Of course, the real picture is much more optimistic. COVID-19 can mutate as much as it likes but every day we are one day closer to having the vaccine. Probably we'll have a vaccine around Christmass and it will hit mass market around next spring.
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nivek
As Above So Below
Dejan Corovic
As above, so bellow
OK, so I obviously can't do maths.
But the principle holds, that science saved tens of millions of lives in comparison with 100 years earlier.
nivek
As Above So Below
nivek
As Above So Below
It seems to me the more this coronavirus mutates the less likely any vaccine currently in development will work...I think this is the reason we do not have a vaccine for the common cold, because it mutates too rapidly...
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AD1184
Celestial
Was it scientific ignorance that caused such a high mortality in the Spanish Influenza epidemic? Or was it merely the virulence of the disease, coupled with, as now, pig-headed refusal to take sensible measures to kerb its spread?
The following picture was taken in 1918:
The following report is from March, 2020:
Face masks: WHO stands by recommendation to not wear them if you are not sick or not caring for someone who is sick - CNN
Until very recently, the WHO and many national health authorities and scientific advisers were saying that masks don't work. Or, spookily (scientifically?), they only work for doctors. Now, faced with the reality that, yes, mask usage by the general public has a large effect on the rate of disease spread, they have had to U-turn (although there are several national health authorities, particularly in east Asia, who knew this about masks all along, and did not struggle to remember what was known about the spread of respiratory infections in 1918).
The scientific advice in this country was to do nothing (because they were sticking rigidly to a plan for the wrong disease), until a U-turn in mid-March, which was far too late to prevent an enormous tragedy. Far from benefiting from scientific advances, the strict hospital admission criteria coupled with the expected case load and lack of effective treatment meant that many thousands were told "can you die at home, please?"
It was also scientific advice that informed Britain's poor preparations. The pandemic preparedness plan said that there was no need for a large number of contact tracers, as these would only be useful during the very early stages of the pandemic to establish the likely severity. It turns out that contact tracers, and large numbers of them, are useful all throughout a pandemic of a disease such as Covid. The press is distracted by nonsense that this is something to do with funding cuts and austerity, but if your war plan says that a weapon in your armoury is no longer needed, then you don't keep it around. It was this scientific 'advance' that said that something crucial was now obsolete, when the previous generation knew better.
The following picture was taken in 1918:
The following report is from March, 2020:
Face masks: WHO stands by recommendation to not wear them if you are not sick or not caring for someone who is sick - CNN
Until very recently, the WHO and many national health authorities and scientific advisers were saying that masks don't work. Or, spookily (scientifically?), they only work for doctors. Now, faced with the reality that, yes, mask usage by the general public has a large effect on the rate of disease spread, they have had to U-turn (although there are several national health authorities, particularly in east Asia, who knew this about masks all along, and did not struggle to remember what was known about the spread of respiratory infections in 1918).
The scientific advice in this country was to do nothing (because they were sticking rigidly to a plan for the wrong disease), until a U-turn in mid-March, which was far too late to prevent an enormous tragedy. Far from benefiting from scientific advances, the strict hospital admission criteria coupled with the expected case load and lack of effective treatment meant that many thousands were told "can you die at home, please?"
It was also scientific advice that informed Britain's poor preparations. The pandemic preparedness plan said that there was no need for a large number of contact tracers, as these would only be useful during the very early stages of the pandemic to establish the likely severity. It turns out that contact tracers, and large numbers of them, are useful all throughout a pandemic of a disease such as Covid. The press is distracted by nonsense that this is something to do with funding cuts and austerity, but if your war plan says that a weapon in your armoury is no longer needed, then you don't keep it around. It was this scientific 'advance' that said that something crucial was now obsolete, when the previous generation knew better.
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nivek
As Above So Below
I've been watching India's statistics and I've got the feeling this virus is set to explode and spread like wildfire there anytime soon...I really hope not but it seems inevitable...There are so many people in that country their medical facilities would collapse quickly if they were faced with a full blown outbreak...
platood
Adept
Was it scientific ignorance that caused such a high mortality in the Spanish Influenza epidemic? Or was it merely the virulence of the disease, coupled with, as now, pig-headed refusal to take sensible measures to kerb its spread?
The following picture was taken in 1918:
The following report is from March, 2020:
Face masks: WHO stands by recommendation to not wear them if you are not sick or not caring for someone who is sick - CNN
Until very recently, the WHO and many national health authorities and scientific advisers were saying that masks don't work. Or, spookily (scientifically?), they only work for doctors. Now, faced with the reality that, yes, mask usage by the general public has a large effect on the rate of disease spread, they have had to U-turn (although there are several national health authorities, particularly in east Asia, who knew this about masks all along, and did not struggle to remember what was known about the spread of respiratory infections in 1918).
The scientific advice in this country was to do nothing (because they were sticking rigidly to a plan for the wrong disease), until a U-turn in mid-March, which was far too late to prevent an enormous tragedy. Far from benefiting from scientific advances, the strict hospital admission criteria coupled with the expected case load and lack of effective treatment meant that many thousands were told "can you die at home, please?"
It was also scientific advice that informed Britain's poor preparations. The pandemic preparedness plan said that there was no need for a large number of contact tracers, as these would only be useful during the very early stages of the pandemic to establish the likely severity. It turns out that contact tracers, and large numbers of them, are useful all throughout a pandemic of a disease such as Covid. The press is distracted by nonsense that this is something to do with funding cuts and austerity, but if your war plan says that a weapon in your armoury is no longer needed, then you don't keep it around. It was this scientific 'advance' that said that something crucial was now obsolete, when the previous generation knew better.
Look at the picture well. Read the sign close! So now in 2020, when we spot a person going maskless in public should we call them out? If we don’t are we not doing enough to help protect people who are at higher risk of developing serious complications if they contract COVID-19?
nivek
As Above So Below
Was it scientific ignorance that caused such a high mortality in the Spanish Influenza epidemic? Or was it merely the virulence of the disease, coupled with, as now, pig-headed refusal to take sensible measures to kerb its spread?
The following picture was taken in 1918:
The following report is from March, 2020:
Face masks: WHO stands by recommendation to not wear them if you are not sick or not caring for someone who is sick - CNN
Until very recently, the WHO and many national health authorities and scientific advisers were saying that masks don't work. Or, spookily (scientifically?), they only work for doctors. Now, faced with the reality that, yes, mask usage by the general public has a large effect on the rate of disease spread, they have had to U-turn (although there are several national health authorities, particularly in east Asia, who knew this about masks all along, and did not struggle to remember what was known about the spread of respiratory infections in 1918).
The scientific advice in this country was to do nothing (because they were sticking rigidly to a plan for the wrong disease), until a U-turn in mid-March, which was far too late to prevent an enormous tragedy. Far from benefiting from scientific advances, the strict hospital admission criteria coupled with the expected case load and lack of effective treatment meant that many thousands were told "can you die at home, please?"
It was also scientific advice that informed Britain's poor preparations. The pandemic preparedness plan said that there was no need for a large number of contact tracers, as these would only be useful during the very early stages of the pandemic to establish the likely severity. It turns out that contact tracers, and large numbers of them, are useful all throughout a pandemic of a disease such as Covid. The press is distracted by nonsense that this is something to do with funding cuts and austerity, but if your war plan says that a weapon in your armoury is no longer needed, then you don't keep it around. It was this scientific 'advance' that said that something crucial was now obsolete, when the previous generation knew better.
Speaking of mask wearing and it's benefits, if nothing else the Surgeon General states it will give us Americans more freedom of movement...Take notice of the last two paragraphs before the Twitter link...
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Surgeon General Jerome Adams says wearing coronavirus masks will give Americans 'more freedom'
Surgeon General Jerome Adams on Sunday encouraged people to wear a mask to stop the spread of the coronavirus — saying the face coverings don’t infringe on Americans’ “freedom” and will help to get the economy up and running.
“Some feel face coverings infringe on their freedom of choice- but if more wear them, we’ll have MORE freedom to go out. Face coverings [leads to] less asymptomatic viral spread [leads to] more places open, and sooner!” Adams wrote on Twitter. “Exercise and promote your freedom by choosing to wear a face covering!”
The surgeon general had originally said in February that masks are “not effective” to prevent transmission, and urged people to protect themselves by staying home when they are sick and washing their hands thoroughly with soap and water.
He changed his tune in early April after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidelines that Americans should wear face-coverings in public. Nevertheless, orders to wear face masks have been met with resistance in some parts of the country.
nivek
As Above So Below
Fired Florida department of health data scientist who publicly questioned accuracy of its covid numbers releases her own stats - which show thousands MORE cases as Sunshine State sees worrying spike
Rebekah Jones, left, was ousted last month for violating Health Department policy. Now Jones has now launched her own dashboard, top right; her data shows only two counties currently meet the requirements for further easing of lockdown. She questions the way the state records how many people test positive, bottom right. Most of Florida began easing lockdown May 4; further restrictions eased June 5. New daily coronavirus cases exceeded 2,000 for a second day in a row Sunday. That forced some newly reopened bars to close their doors again.
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Rebekah Jones, left, was ousted last month for violating Health Department policy. Now Jones has now launched her own dashboard, top right; her data shows only two counties currently meet the requirements for further easing of lockdown. She questions the way the state records how many people test positive, bottom right. Most of Florida began easing lockdown May 4; further restrictions eased June 5. New daily coronavirus cases exceeded 2,000 for a second day in a row Sunday. That forced some newly reopened bars to close their doors again.
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nivek
As Above So Below
Fears of a second lockdown grow as coronavirus infections surge in 17 mostly southern states, bringing record number of new cases and hospitalizations
At least 17 states across the US have seen COVID-19 infections surge in the last week as record numbers of new cases and hospitalizations continue to sweep through the likes of Florida, Texas and Alabama. Several of the states, mostly in the South, have seen an increase in new cases since Memorial Day as health officials warn of a potential surge in new coronavirus infections as states push ahead with reopening. Alabama reported a record number of new cases for the fourth day in a row on Sunday. Alabama reported a record number of new cases for the fourth day in a row on Sunday. Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Carolina all had record numbers of new cases in the past three days. In Louisiana, which had been one of the earlier virus hot spots, new cases were again on the rise with over 1,200 - the most there since May 21.
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At least 17 states across the US have seen COVID-19 infections surge in the last week as record numbers of new cases and hospitalizations continue to sweep through the likes of Florida, Texas and Alabama. Several of the states, mostly in the South, have seen an increase in new cases since Memorial Day as health officials warn of a potential surge in new coronavirus infections as states push ahead with reopening. Alabama reported a record number of new cases for the fourth day in a row on Sunday. Alabama reported a record number of new cases for the fourth day in a row on Sunday. Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma and South Carolina all had record numbers of new cases in the past three days. In Louisiana, which had been one of the earlier virus hot spots, new cases were again on the rise with over 1,200 - the most there since May 21.
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Dejan Corovic
As above, so bellow
Spaceman spiff
Noble
Finland is in a calm period now, theres about 1 new death per 3 days and 5-25 new cases per day. Its definately slowed down. Also the cases in my municipality are at an all time low, so I could get a haircut and do some shopping today, thankfully.
nivek
As Above So Below
It's beginning to get bad in my state of North Carolina, even in the rural county I live in this virus is spreading more rapidly again...NC is opening up again but I am staying home, people aren't wearing masks as they should and in the article below it's obvious we are facing a problem and masks may become mandatory by law in this state...
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NC Sees Record Number Of COVID-19 Deaths, Hospitalizations
North Carolina reported 36 coronavirus-related deaths Tuesday, marking the biggest day-over-day increase in fatalities from the virus as the state's death toll rose to 1,154, according to data released by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.
The spike in deaths in the state comes days after the CDC announced that the state-level ensemble forecasts in North Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, Utah and Vermont suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks will likely exceed the number of deaths during the previous four weeks.
Hospitalizations for illness related to novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, also rose sharply overnight to 829, up from 797 reported Tuesday. As of Tuesday, North Carolina confirmed 45,853 cases of COVID-19, including 751 confirmed since Monday.
The most recent batch of data is a result of state labs processing more than 13,000 tests, increasing the total number of tests processed in the state to more than 651,000.
A survey of 85 percent of the state's hospitals show that 74 percent of both inpatient and intensive care unit hospital beds were occupied Tuesday, NCDHHS said.
COVID-19 outbreaks in congregate living facilities, such as nursing homes, residential care facilities and correctional facilities rose to 6,877 confirmed cases Tuesday. The case count represents about 15 percent of the total cases of COVID-19 confirmed in the state.
As of Tuesday, 107 of the state's 409 nursing home facilities had a COVID-19 outbreak. State health officials also reported outbreaks at 60 residential care facilities and 22 correctional facilities. About 63 percent of the deaths from COVID-19 in North Carolina have occurred in such congregate living facilities, according to NCDHHS data.
As the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations grow, state public health officials are now considering whether to make cloth face coverings mandatory, Gov. Roy Cooper said Monday.
Under the state's current "Phase 2" restrictions, which is set to expire June 26, masks must be worn by personal care workers, such as in hair and nail salons. Cooper said a decision about how— or if — the state progresses into Phase 3 will be announced early next week.
"The health experts are looking carefully at the numbers and the science and we will let the people of North Carolina know at the first of next week whether we will go into the next phase, and if so, what that phase will look like," Cooper said during a news conference Monday.
Masks could possibly be a component of the decision, he said.
"It's absolutely in discussion right now regarding whether we make cloth face coverings mandatory and in what way we do it," Cooper said. "We want people to voluntarily to do this, but we are looking at additional rules to potentially make these mandatory."
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NC Sees Record Number Of COVID-19 Deaths, Hospitalizations
North Carolina reported 36 coronavirus-related deaths Tuesday, marking the biggest day-over-day increase in fatalities from the virus as the state's death toll rose to 1,154, according to data released by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.
The spike in deaths in the state comes days after the CDC announced that the state-level ensemble forecasts in North Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, Utah and Vermont suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks will likely exceed the number of deaths during the previous four weeks.
Hospitalizations for illness related to novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, also rose sharply overnight to 829, up from 797 reported Tuesday. As of Tuesday, North Carolina confirmed 45,853 cases of COVID-19, including 751 confirmed since Monday.
The most recent batch of data is a result of state labs processing more than 13,000 tests, increasing the total number of tests processed in the state to more than 651,000.
A survey of 85 percent of the state's hospitals show that 74 percent of both inpatient and intensive care unit hospital beds were occupied Tuesday, NCDHHS said.
COVID-19 outbreaks in congregate living facilities, such as nursing homes, residential care facilities and correctional facilities rose to 6,877 confirmed cases Tuesday. The case count represents about 15 percent of the total cases of COVID-19 confirmed in the state.
As of Tuesday, 107 of the state's 409 nursing home facilities had a COVID-19 outbreak. State health officials also reported outbreaks at 60 residential care facilities and 22 correctional facilities. About 63 percent of the deaths from COVID-19 in North Carolina have occurred in such congregate living facilities, according to NCDHHS data.
As the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations grow, state public health officials are now considering whether to make cloth face coverings mandatory, Gov. Roy Cooper said Monday.
Under the state's current "Phase 2" restrictions, which is set to expire June 26, masks must be worn by personal care workers, such as in hair and nail salons. Cooper said a decision about how— or if — the state progresses into Phase 3 will be announced early next week.
"The health experts are looking carefully at the numbers and the science and we will let the people of North Carolina know at the first of next week whether we will go into the next phase, and if so, what that phase will look like," Cooper said during a news conference Monday.
Masks could possibly be a component of the decision, he said.
"It's absolutely in discussion right now regarding whether we make cloth face coverings mandatory and in what way we do it," Cooper said. "We want people to voluntarily to do this, but we are looking at additional rules to potentially make these mandatory."
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