Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

Thomas R. Morrison said:

This could finally be over by this time next year, possibly even a little bit sooner.

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That's a big 'could', it could also lead to a stronger more resilient strain of the virus, I can see it now, people get that first shot and think they're immune and go around without masks giving ammunition to the virus to mutate resistance to the vaccine...

That's just one scenario...

I think what we need more of is perseverance than too much hope, I doubt by this time next year all is well and back to pre 2020 normalcy, things just don't happen that fast, especially with the situation we are dealing with...I'm sorry, I'm not trying to pour rain on your hopes but let's not jump too far with this vaccine and create false hopes from it...There are still too many unknown variables in this situation, this vaccine is promising, time will certainly be the tell...

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You've been noticeably quiet in regards to these vaccines @AD1184 what's your thoughts on these vaccines and their future effect on this pandemic?...

Personally I'm more concerned with the latter, 'effect on this pandemic', not just the direct effects of inoculating enough of a percentage of the population to call herd immunity, but people's actions after receiving their injections and also could this virus mutate a resistance before herd immunity is achieved, if that's possible...

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nivek said:

That's a big 'could', it could also lead to a stronger more resilient strain of the virus, I can see it now, people get that first shot and think they're immune and go around without masks giving ammunition to the virus to mutate resistance to the vaccine...

That's just one scenario...

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While it's true that we've seen how some vaccines of the past, and antibiotics, can help to produce new and stronger strains of a contagion - like MRSA for example - I don't think you're properly weighing the risk factor of the alternative: what we have in the US right now....skyrocketing infections of millions of people and animals from coast to coast. The more hosts that get infected with the virus, the more likely it is to mutate, and the more likely it is that one of those mutations will be even worse than the original strain. Our incompetent national response to this virus is imperiling everyone else on this planet.

Halting the unchecked spread of this virus must be our top priority, and a vaccine is the best way to do that. Virologists have learned why previous vaccine efforts have on occasion led to stronger virus strains, and they now know how to minimize that risk. An unvaccinated population taking inadequate safeguards - the situation we're in right now - is the far greater risk to world health.

nivek said:

I think what we need more of is perseverance than too much hope, I doubt by this time next year all is well and back to pre 2020 normalcy, things just don't happen that fast, especially with the situation we are dealing with...I'm sorry, I'm not trying to pour rain on your hopes but let's not jump too far with this vaccine and create false hopes from it...There are still too many unknown variables in this situation, this vaccine is promising, time will certainly be the tell...

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I think that perseverance and hope tend to go hand-in-hand: millions of people are succumbing to "pandemic fatigue" and a light at the end of the tunnel can fortify their resolve to maintain their safety protocols until a reasonably safe and very effective vaccine is available in a few months. I'm not looking forward to the moderate side effects of these vaccines - a day of serious discomfort in a significant percentage of patients, but vaccines are how we beat yellow fever, polio, measles, mumps, and many other infectious diseases. This is not our first rodeo; there are good reasons why we have our kids vaccinated against dangerous pathogens. And the alternative is unthinkable - to allow the virus to infect the entire population while praying that a more lethal strain doesn't emerge from the billions of opportunities that we give it to do so.

I still have some questions, and I want to see more scientific analysis of these two vaccines. But at this point I see little cause for alarm...except perhaps regarding the rising number of anti-vaxxers in our population (a recent poll found that 35% of US citizens have said that they won't take a coronavirus vaccine when one becomes available). Because the longer it takes to achieve herd immunity, the more people will die, and the more chances the virus will have to mutate into even more deadly, infectious, or vaccine-resistant strains.

I'm not any anti-vaxxer by any means, I've had my share of vaccinations in the Navy going overseas...I'm not saying I won't ever get one of these vaccinations if they work, just not right away...I'm cautiously optimistic, wait and see, a few months from now if all things are going well with the vaccine programs then perhaps, but not so soon...I understand why there isn't a flu vaccine which actually works long term, because the flu virus changes too quickly and they say covid doesn't...I think thats the reason we haven't beaten the common cold yet either because it changes even faster than the flu virus...

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nivek said:

I'm not any anti-vaxxer by any means, I've had my share of vaccinations in the Navy going overseas...I'm not saying I won't ever get one of these vaccinations if they work, just not right away...I'm cautiously optimistic, wait and see, a few months from now if all things are going well with the vaccine programs then perhaps, but not so soon...I understand why there isn't a flu vaccine which actually works long term, because the flu virus changes too quickly and they say covid doesn't...I think thats the reason we haven't beaten the common cold yet either because it changes even faster than the flu virus...

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I dunno if you've read about the roll-out plans of "Operation Warp Speed" (they're detailed in the second link I shared), but they're going to give first-responders and high-risk senior citizens the vaccine first (starting next month) - this group comprises about 15% of the US population. Then they're going to give the moderate-risk people and teachers and so forth the next round of treatments, and that group comprises 30-35% of the US population. People like you and me won't even have access to the vaccine until the third round in the late spring or summer. So by the time we could get it, about 50% of Americans will have already taken it. If there are any surprises, chances are they'll show up before we're even eligible to get it. We'll have months to watch the roll-out, and nearly 150 million "guinea pigs" ahead of us. That's why I feel like I'll be able to make a safe and informed choice, by the time I can get in line for this vaccine (and I'm favoring the Pfizer vaccine because it has more mild and infrequent side effects like headache and fever lasting for up to 12 hours following the booster shot).

There's always the risk of very rare side effects - I have a friend who went through weeks of hell after a bad allergic reaction to a vaccine. But those risks will be easy to quantify once we have a sample of 150 million vaccinated people to consider.

And I'd be willing to face some fairly gnarly side effects, because I'm living in mortal fear of catching this virus and then passing it on to my mother who I'm looking after (she has cancer and emphysema and is nearly 80 - an extremely high mortality risk if she gets infected). The thought of catching this thing, and then inadvertently murdering my own immunocompromised mother by passing it along it to her, has been giving me the worst insomnia of my life.

So are these vaccines only starting in the US?...Are the Europeans getting started with vaccination plans?...I haven't read all the details surrounding distribution, I assumed many of the worst cases may get it first but I also heard that there are 4 states that will start inoculation first before the rest of the country...

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nivek said:

So are these vaccines only starting in the US?...Are the Europeans getting started with vaccination plans?...I haven't read all the details surrounding distribution, I assumed many of the worst cases may get it first but I also heard that there are 4 states that will start inoculation first before the rest of the country...

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They say ours in Australia will be ready by next March.

Australia is 'on track' to deliver a coronavirus vaccine by March next year, Greg Hunt says (sbs.com.au)

nivek said:

You've been noticeably quiet in regards to these vaccines @AD1184 what's your thoughts on these vaccines and their future effect on this pandemic?...

Personally I'm more concerned with the latter, 'effect on this pandemic', not just the direct effects of inoculating enough of a percentage of the population to call herd immunity, but people's actions after receiving their injections and also could this virus mutate a resistance before herd immunity is achieved, if that's possible...

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I wrote a couple of posts about vaccination this month:

How is The Coronavirus affecting your life?
Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

It seems like most developed countries are first planning to distribute the vaccine to front line workers and those who're at very high risk.

That wont get us herd immunity, but it should drastically cut the mortality rate as the vast vast majority of the dead are elderly - with frontline healthcare workers also making a disproportionate amount probably thanks to constant exposure given them a larger viral load.

Cutting the COVID mortality rate will also help ease pressure on the medical system and reduce the other hidden killer - excess deaths due to the system being overloaded.
As of October, the US had already reached 300,000 excess deaths compared to yearly averages, and it's likely to have hit 400,000 by now. While COVID is a minimal concern for most aged below 50, the system being unable to deal with other cases is a danger to all groups as the CDC found.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

AstraZeneca will have enough COVID-19 vaccine for 200 million doses this year

AstraZeneca will have enough of its candidate vaccine for 200 million doses by the end of 2020, with drug substance for 700 million doses by the end of the first quarter of 2021 globally, operations executive Pam Cheng said on Monday.

Cheng told a briefing that the company would keep the "active" drug substance in stock while it awaited regulatory approval around the world.

She said there would be enough vaccine for 20 million doses in Britain by the end of the year, with enough "active" drug substance for 70 million doses for the UK by the end of Q1 2021.

She said she expected that to translate into 4 million finished vaccine doses by the end of 2020, and 40 million finished doses by the end of Q1 next year.

Those calculations were based on using two full doses, she said, although trial data suggests higher efficacy when the initial shot is a half dose.

"If we go with a half dose you can imagine for the initial dose, we will be able to double the number of vaccinations here," she said.

She said the figures referred to the vaccine doses being manufactured by AstraZeneca, and not those being made by manufacturing partners.

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Trudeau: Canadians won't be among the first to get vaccine

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday Canada will have to wait for a vaccine because the very first ones that roll off assembly lines are likely to be given to citizens of the country they are made in.

Trudeau noted Canada does not have vaccine-production facilities. The United States, the United Kingdom and Germany do.

Trudeau said it is understandable that an American pharmaceutical company will distribute first in the U.S. before they distribute internationally.

"Shortly afterwards they will start honoring and delivering the contracts that they signed with other countries including Canada," Trudeau said. “We’re expecting to start receiving those doses in the first few months of 2021.”

Trudeau said Canadians won’t have to wait for everyone in the U.S. to be vaccinated before Canada gets doses.

The issue was discussed at the G-20 this past weekend and Trudeau said he’s working with allies to make sure there is a free flow of contracts. He said countries recognize that “no one place gets through COVID-19 until all places are through COVID-19.”

Trudeau said having pre-bought an array of vaccine candidates from foreign manufacturers will help get Canadians effective doses as soon as possible and noted Canada pre-bought millions of doses.

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I know this is going to sound full blown Lone Gunman (that's the disclaimer)

My wife and I wear masks as required, wash our hands, no problem with any of that. Cotton or paper masks, no gloves, no eyewear. But of necessity we travel in and out of Manhattan regularly using trains and subways, occasionally taxis. My mother-in-law has three home health aides that come in from Brooklyn and Queens daily and use mass transit. They have been doing so all along.

In my hateful retirement twilight zone I work at a local big box store that puts on a good show for customers but does absolutely nothing when the doors close or you are out of sight despite the dire warnings and policy they post. I am quite literally in throngs of people on a daily basis. The number of people hacking and sneezing and farting and blowing their odors in my face hasn't abated one bit. Without exaggeration 3-5 times busier than normal as shown by sales and employee profit shares. A lot more people in there than normal.

When I say throngs I am not kidding. I find myself wrestling 100-200 foot lengths of this big nasty 200 amp direct burial URD cable - armpit to armpit coiling up that heavy monster while our glasses and masks fall off. We're not 6 inches away much less 6 feet. There are times when I flee because we are literally pressing flesh - but I did that before I ever heard of covid anyway. In general people are a stinky unclean lot; that's why there are no kosher cannibals.

Since mid-March just think about how many people have circulated in very close proximity. I am aware of several confirmed cases but none that required hospitalization. Most are back on the clock and from what they've said, yeah it'll get you damned sick and it's nasty. I don't doubt it's reality. It's the math. Statistically shouldn't we all be dropping like flies? Isn't this one daily super spreader event? Yet locally things are quiet - hospitals are fine.

Does anyone else in this forum have that level of exposure? What I see directly in person, which is an admittedly narrow p.o.v, just doesn't add up with what I see and hear in the media. So.... we're just lucky?

I'm not dumb enough to tear off the mask and declare it a hoax but I'm observant enough to say 'something's not right here'

After Admitting Mistake, AstraZeneca Faces Difficult Questions About Its Vaccine

Some trial participants only got a partial dose of AstraZeneca’s vaccine. Experts said the company’s spotty disclosures have eroded confidence.

The announcement this week that a cheap, easy-to-make coronavirus vaccine appeared to be up to 90 percent effective was greeted with jubilation. “Get yourself a vaccaccino,” a British tabloid celebrated, noting that the vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, costs less than a cup of coffee.

But since unveiling the preliminary results, AstraZeneca has acknowledged a key mistake in the vaccine dosage received by some study participants, adding to questions about whether the vaccine’s apparently spectacular efficacy will hold up under additional testing.

Scientists and industry experts said the error and a series of other irregularities and omissions in the way AstraZeneca initially disclosed the data have eroded their confidence in the reliability of the results.

Officials in the United States have noted that the results were not clear. The head of the flagship federal vaccine initiative suggested that the vaccine’s most promising results may not have reflected data from older people.

The upshot, the experts said, is that the odds of regulators in the United States and elsewhere quickly authorizing the emergency use of the AstraZeneca vaccine are declining, an unexpected setback in the global campaign to corral the devastating pandemic.

“I think that they have really damaged confidence in their whole development program,” said Geoffrey Porges, an analyst for the investment bank SVB Leerink.

Michele Meixell, a spokeswoman for AstraZeneca, said the trials “were conducted to the highest standards.” After the error in the dosage was discovered, British regulators signed off on the plan to continue testing it in different doses, according to a statement that Ms. Meixell attributed to Oxford.

AstraZeneca was the third company this month to report encouraging early results on a coronavirus vaccine candidate. At first glance on Monday morning, the results looked promising. Depending on the strength at which the doses were given, the vaccine appeared to be either 90 percent or 62 percent effective. The average efficacy, the developers said, was 70 percent.

Almost immediately, though, there were doubts about the data.

The regimen that appeared to be 90 percent effective was based on participants receiving a half dose of the vaccine followed a month later by a full dose; the less effective version involved a pair of full doses. AstraZeneca disclosed in its initial announcement that fewer than 2,800 participants received the smaller dosing regimen, compared with nearly 8,900 participants who received two full doses.

The biggest questions were, why was there such a large variation in the effectiveness of the vaccine at different doses, and why did a smaller dose appear to produce much better results? AstraZeneca and Oxford researchers said they did not know.

Crucial information was also missing. The company said that the early analysis was based on 131 symptomatic Covid-19 cases that had turned up in study participants. But it did not break down how many cases were found in each group of participants — those who received the half-strength initial dose, the regular-strength initial dose and the placebo.

“The press release raised more questions than it answered,” said John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College.

Adding to the confusion, AstraZeneca pooled the results from two differently designed clinical trials in Britain and Brazil, a break from standard practice in reporting the results of drug and vaccine trials.

(More on the link)

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