Wars & Rumours of Wars

Rick Hunter

Celestial
Charred remains of Putin's tanks lie smouldering in the street as Russian death toll climbs | Daily Mail Online

Russian losses mount..
They will fight to the last man.
When they run out of ammo they will
Use knives. When they are out of those fist.. when it's over Russia will have nothing left to fight for.

Never been in combat before so I really can't say how I would react. I do hope that, if I was facing an invasion, I would have the courage and determination to fight until the enemy was gone or I was dead. I don't accept the notion that the government of Ukraine is totally blameless for it's situation, but I am cheering on the common people of that nation. They seem to be doing a helluva job.
 
This is not good news:

Most people in Sweden and Finland now want to join NATO after war broke out in Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

The Finns and the Swedes now want to join NATO, despite their historic neutrality. Russia has threatened military retaliation if they join. If they were not interested even at the height of the Cold War, they shouldn't be let in now. Finland and Sweden are most useful as buffer states between NATO and Russia.

As a subject of a NATO-member country (one of the original 12), I resent NATO obligations being extended to more and more states, particularly at a time of such escalating tensions. Liberal internationalists in the western world seem to have been taken over by a kind of euphoria in this moment, and are relishing the conflict with Russia. NATO's ethos ought to be discipline and restraint, and not reckless gambling when overcome with passion.

The only hope we can cling to is that NATO membership is by invitation only, and an invitation is extended only after the unanimous agreement of all existing member countries, and that the leadership of at least one of those countries will see sense. It is not solely up to would-be members to decide. However, I do worry as there is madness in the air.

Russia tests us. They are the ones pushing us into NATO. A year ago most finns were still holding to neutrality, but no one would have expected something like this. We certainly don't want Russia to be coming into our country like they have into Ukraine. We have no guarantees on what Putin wants next or how far he is willing to go, maybe he decides to go for another non NATO country behind his border, that would be us. If he wants something like borders before 1917, "the Russian Empire" back, he is insane.

Finns will never accept russian rule, we have too negative history with them already and our ideas of freedom are rather incompatible. We have western and nordic values here and are more akin to Sweden, Denmark and Norway, than former eastern block countries.

All of this will naturally drive us all towards NATO, if they keep pushing. Cause we think if push comes to shove that it is better to take a chance with a large force backing you, than without it. The illusions have been pretty much shattered. Russia has gone so unpredictable that for many people here war is on the horizon either way at some point, as they are right behind our eastern border like always. They were the boogeyman before, but now the boogeyman is out of the closet and tearing people up. There is still some hope though. Either Putin is ousted or something else comes which slows or stops this, but not holding my breath.

We will continue to follow this, but the NATO card is definately now on the table. It gets harder should swedes go there before us, as then we are the only neutral northern buffer nation, which will be sitting there alone and vulnerable.
 
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Rick Hunter

Celestial
I don't think NATO should expand. It will probably lead to a new Warsaw Pact sort of coalition that could well include both Russia and China. Not good.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
 

wwkirk

Divine
So now Ukraine calls on PlayStation and Xbox to block Russian accounts and to ban Russian cats from international competition… This is just getting pathetic...How is this going to hurt Putin?...Are we witnessing Western Mass pyschosis?...

...

Ukraine calls on PlayStation and Xbox to 'block' all Russian accounts



.

Poor strategy from a PSYOPs perspective. The numerous ban and proposals of bans that primarily affect ordinary Russians could result in turning the Russian populace towards Putin. That goes for banning Russian athletes and even dumping Russian vodka. None of that stuff is relevant to Putin or his war effort. Instead, it makes it seem like the West hates Russians themselves.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
I don't think NATO should expand. It will probably lead to a new Warsaw Pact sort of coalition that could well include both Russia and China. Not good.

Yup. Read Guns of August and then come back and tell me extensive treaty obligations are a good idea. They can be but I'd think but it's not like they're signing up for Netflix, you'd think there would be some serious consideration first.

All they want is maybe the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine. I bet the Russians will draw a line and tell Ukraine what they can have while Russia keeps the useful ports, etc. I believe @AD1184 said as much a while ago.; take what they want and leave the ruin to whoever wants it. I'd think they would be open to humanitarian corridors just to get rid of extraneous mouths to feed.

There are parallels to the late 1930s with Ukraine playing the role of the Sudetenland. I don't think anyone is going to bother to sign a new version of a Munich Agreement to obtain 'peace in our time.' Difference is that we are dealing with nuclear powers and we can't just rush in and eject the bully - and that's exactly what Russia has reminded us of repeatedly.

Zelensky gave a surprise underground press conference yesterday and made a list of the former Soviet republics that are next and he's probably right. No good answer to this.
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
I think its all in Putin's head.

After Soviet Union's collapse Russia recovered on a huge influx of capital from West. That's how Russian living standard skyrocketed. If anything West just wants to do business in Russia, make money, be happy. How can Russia feel threatened by the West when the most powerful country in the Europe, Germany, disarmed itself for the last 70 years? If Russia was a true democracy this war in Ukraine would never happen. Russia would maybe even become member of EU. But how can you explain advantages of co-operation to somebody who's paranoid and stuck in the past?

Populism is a cancer of mankind.
 

AD1184

Celestial
I think its all in Putin's head.

After Soviet Union's collapse Russia recovered on a huge influx of capital from West. That's how Russian living standard skyrocketed. If anything West just wants to do business in Russia, make money, be happy. How can Russia feel threatened by the West when the most powerful country in the Europe, Germany, disarmed itself for the last 70 years? If Russia was a true democracy this war in Ukraine would never happen. Russia would maybe even become member of EU. But how can you explain advantages of co-operation to somebody who's paranoid and stuck in the past?

Populism is a cancer of mankind.
The current Russian mindset was influenced heavily by the events of the 1990s and 2000s, where Russia saw its former territories and allies consumed by NATO and by EU expansionism. The EU is threatening because it puts the newly acquired territory behind enormous economic walls that greatly limit existing relations with third countries. NATO is threatening because it is an implicitly anti-Russian military alliance. Russia was deliberately isolated and excluded by these expansions. Needless to say, Russian interests were not considered, or were dismissed when these actions were undertaken.

It is a lot easier to see the actions of one's own side as unthreatening, e.g. signals intelligence missions by NATO aircraft in the Black Sea, and warships going up to the territorial limit of Russian waters in the same location, which have all been going on for a long time. But if the Russians were flying military aircraft and sending warships into the Gulf of Mexico, then America would be apoplectic. Russia has been rather tolerant of these actions, compared to what would happen if the situation were the reverse. Russia is a former imperial power, but it has also been almost ceaselessly invaded over its long history.
 

AD1184

Celestial
Russia tests us. They are the ones pushing us into NATO. A year ago most finns were still holding to neutrality, but no one would have expected something like this. We certainly don't want Russia to be coming into our country like they have into Ukraine. We have no guarantees on what Putin wants next or how far he is willing to go, maybe he decides to go for another non NATO country behind his border, that would be us. If he wants something like borders before 1917, "the Russian Empire" back, he is insane.

Finns will never accept russian rule, we have too negative history with them already and our ideas of freedom are rather incompatible. We have western and nordic values here and are more akin to Sweden, Denmark and Norway, than former eastern block countries.

All of this will naturally drive us all towards NATO, if they keep pushing. Cause we think if push comes to shove that it is better to take a chance with a large force backing you, than without it. The illusions have been pretty much shattered. Russia has gone so unpredictable that for many people here war is on the horizon either way at some point, as they are right behind our eastern border like always. They were the boogeyman before, but now the boogeyman is out of the closet and tearing people up. There is still some hope though. Either Putin is ousted or something else comes which slows or stops this, but not holding my breath.

We will continue to follow this, but the NATO card is definately now on the table. It gets harder should swedes go there before us, as then we are the only neutral northern buffer nation, which will be sitting there alone and vulnerable.
Joining NATO may actually place Finland and Sweden in greater danger than if they stayed out. You could be volunteering as a target of Russian ire when you are not already. As barbaric as Russia's Ukrainian invasion is, I do not think it is evidence of Russian expansionism. The Russians told us that bringing Ukraine into the western orbit was their red line, that they considered it an existential threat to their country, and that they would fight tooth and nail to prevent it from happening. They were emphatic about this. Would that we had listened to their warning.

They are having a hard time taking Ukraine, and if they wanted to go any further westward that is into NATO territory, where they absolutely could not make any realistic progress with conventional means, and NATO has a powerful nuclear deterrent. Russia's current interests are likely in those same countries where it has had a more recent historic influence, whereas Finland and Sweden have long been within the western sphere of influence. Although the Soviet Union had designs upon Finland and invaded 80 years ago, it did not managed to acquire it.

Let us suppose for a moment that Russia has no plans to take Finland and Sweden by force (and have they given any indication that they intend to do so?). Given the Russians know what their own plans are, and we assume for the sake of argument that they are not to interfere with Finland and Sweden, how will a move to join NATO by those countries be received by Russia? Remember, NATO is an implicitly anti-Russian military alliance. It seems more an affront to Russia, rather than a necessary defensive measure, and will likely feed the Russian perception that NATO is plotting to encircle them (not wholly unjustified, particularly if NATO formally extends an invitation to Finland and Sweden).

NATO's actions are, by the articles of its charter, supposed to be undertaken to promote stability in Europe. That instruction is rather open to interpretation, and actions contravening it can be justified by the simple act of self-deception, but given that there are doubts as to whether admitting Finland and Sweden would promote stability, I think it is better to maintain the status quo than to admit them. Instead, Finland and Sweden should wait until there is an EU defensive pact.

A military incursion into Finland and Sweden would require a lengthy build-up of an invasion force. The Russian armed forces are likely to be almost spent, even if they are successful in Ukraine, having experienced heavy losses of men and equipment. It is unlikely that they will have a further appetite for more invasions in the foreseeable future. Finland and Sweden were happy to remain outside of NATO during the last period of clear Russian expansionism in the Soviet era. The desire for their peoples to join now, then, seems more about trying to teach Russia a lesson for its Ukraine invasion, than a necessary step to protect themselves. It seems that the two countries have been caught up with the groundswell of popular western sentiment for punishing Russia over its Ukraine invasion.
 
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pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
At a more general level any behavior i.e a precipitous rush to join NATO is a reaction to Russian behavior. Granted western countries exhibit similar and even identical behaviors at times but Russia is perceived to be a threat because it has demonstrated that it is. There were and are alternatives to what they are doing.

Provoking reaction and possibly suffering from unintended consequences goes both ways.
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Russia is a former imperial power, but it has also been almost ceaselessly invaded over its long history.

Yeah, "sick man of Europe" for very long time. Russia consistently loost wars against smaller countries, like Finland, Poland and Afghanistan. And when its fighting against bigger countries they go in 800 km deep, like both France and Germany got all the way to the Moscow.

Russian's biggest problem is low population density and enormous borders. Basically its few large cities with lots of empty space in between. These huge distances slow down everything that happens in Russia. Compare that to Germany or Britain, where one can almost walk from a city to a city.

Needless to say, Russian interests were not considered, or were dismissed when these actions were undertaken.

Well, Russia is posturing most of the time. Russian economy is only of the size of economy of New York stat or South Korea. For such a small economy they are burdened with outsized expense for military and space programs. Britain has bigger GDP than Russia, but it has no space program ( which is usually 100% funded from taxpayer's money ).

But thing is that Russians are very much divided about this war, and division line is old vs young. Old people watch state TV, while young people get info from Internet. Young Russians want to be part of the Western culture and greater world, while old people, ehhh, want to stay home and watch state TV :).
 
Joining NATO may actually place Finland and Sweden in greater danger than if they stayed out. You could be volunteering as a target of Russian ire when you are not already. As barbaric as Russia's Ukrainian invasion is, I do not think it is evidence of Russian expansionism. The Russians told us that bringing Ukraine into the western orbit was their red line, that they considered it an existential threat to their country, and that they would fight tooth and nail to prevent it from happening. They were emphatic about this. Would that we had listened to their warning.

They are having a hard time taking Ukraine, and if they wanted to go any further westward that is into NATO territory, where they absolutely could not make any realistic progress with conventional means, and NATO has a powerful nuclear deterrent. Russia's current interests are likely in those same countries where it has had a more recent historic influence, whereas Finland and Sweden have long been within the western sphere of influence. Although the Soviet Union had designs upon Finland and invaded 80 years ago, it did not managed to acquire it.

Let us suppose for a moment that Russia has no plans to take Finland and Sweden by force (and have they given any indication that they intend to do so?). Given the Russians know what their own plans are, and we assume for the sake of argument that they are not to interfere with Finland and Sweden, how will a move to join NATO by those countries be received by Russia? Remember, NATO is an implicitly anti-Russian military alliance. It seems more an affront to Russia, rather than a necessary defensive measure, and will likely feed the Russian perception that NATO is plotting to encircle them (not wholly unjustified, particularly if NATO formally extends an invitation to Finland and Sweden).

NATO's actions are, by the articles of its charter, supposed to be undertaken to promote stability in Europe. That instruction is rather open to interpretation, and actions contravening it can be justified by the simple act of self-deception, but given that there are doubts as to whether admitting Finland and Sweden would promote stability, I think it is better to maintain the status quo than to admit them. Instead, Finland and Sweden should wait until there is an EU defensive pact.

A military incursion into Finland and Sweden would require a lengthy build-up of an invasion force. The Russian armed forces are likely to be almost spent, even if they are successful in Ukraine, having experienced heavy losses of men and equipment. It is unlikely that they will have a further appetite for more invasions in the foreseeable future. Finland and Sweden were happy to remain outside of NATO during the last period of clear Russian expansionism in the Soviet era. The desire for their peoples to join now, then, seems more about trying to teach Russia a lesson for its Ukraine invasion, than a necessary step to protect themselves. It seems that the two countries have been caught up with the groundswell of popular western sentiment for punishing Russia over its Ukraine invasion.

Russian or Soviet scare tactics are nothing new here, you should look up the term "finlandization". I kinda doubt we were ever truly neutral, it was more trying to appease to one or both directions. We are in the middle of west and east here, both sides have their allies and spheres of influence. We tried to hold out as long as we could, but maybe we ultimately have to choose a side here, before having the decision be made for us by a hostile invading nation. Ukraine hesitated, and the decision was made for them by Putin.

Our people have a long history of not wanting to upset, and at the same time on a citizen level bearing fear and resentment towards our former foes and invaders(you will not see this on the political or diplomat level, they know only to kiss ass as always). Even when our trade and diplomatic relations with them has been good, there was always the lingering fear of the eastern bear awakening again and coming across the border. This has changed now, a wake up call. There are no guarantees anymore.

Concerning NATO membership. Not my decision ultimately, maybe not even my people's, but our parlament's. There is a chance that NATO decision will be made outside of whatever the popular vote will be. What guarantees of peace do we have, either way? Are we between Scylla and Charybdis here?
 
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nivek

As Above So Below
The invasion of Ukraine – city-by-city: Russians enter the crucial port city of Mykolaiv, Mariupol is pummelled by constant shelling and 15,000 troops regroup for Kyiv onslaught

Vladimir Putin's forces have made further gains in Ukraine, seizing control of a nuclear power plant and reducing cities to rubble as Volodymyr Zelensky desperately battles to save his country from the invading forces on the ninth day of fighting.

Russian troops attacked the Zaporizhzhia plant in the early hours of Friday, with CCTV capturing a fierce gun battle that sparked a fire in a six-storey training building just outside the main complex.

Warships are still poised off the coast of Odessa, while the port city of Mykolaiv, near Kherson which was the first city claimed by Russia, is feared to be the next under Putin's control.

Kyiv continues to face intense shelling but has so far been spared a major assault, with Russia's main attack force stalled for days in a miles-long convoy on a highway to the north.

But there are growing concerns that the stationary troops are regrouping and amassing logistical supplies before launching a fierce onslaught on the capital.

Putin want to 'sever' Ukraine in half and deprive the north of resources needed to keep fighting the war - a siege tactic reminiscent of how he won the Chechen war in 2000.

Just over a week after Putin launched his savage campaign, MailOnline assesses the gains being made by the Russians in the cities where they are meeting fierce resilience from Ukraine.


54951647-10577243-image-a-305_1646404573554.jpg


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Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Some Russian vox pop on the Ukraine invasion:



That video is not completely representative because there was only one young person who wanted to talk.

But one can see that all the old folks stick with Putin. Young ones are afraid for their future.

There are reports that Russians leaving Russia are joining 1.2M of Ukrainian refugees. Good UK left EU, because EU's becoming refugee sponge at a rate of 1M/year.
 
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pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
But one can see that all the old folks stick with Putin

If you lived there would you run your mouth just because a reporter stuck a microphone in your face?
I sure as hell wouldn't, even here where there isn't any immediate danger of being pitched down a well.
 
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