Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek

As Above So Below
Is there any evidence that the strain spread by minks is not also prevented by the current vaccine contenders?

This isn't answering your question but I guess adding to it, if the minks are allowed to remain alive they are giving the virus time and fuel to continue to make new strains from this animals, it only takes one bad one to emerge, maybe six months from now or next week, or even a year or two later...This is a huge gamble risking all our lives, the minks must die...

...
 

AD1184

Celestial
Is there any evidence that the strain spread by minks is not also prevented by the current vaccine contenders?
The mutation is in the virus's spike protein, which is exactly the wrong spot we would want such a mutation to take place. The mutant strain is reported to be less sensitive to antibodies of people who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 in in vitro testing.

More than 200 people diagnosed with mink-related coronavirus in Denmark

Whether or not current vaccines will work to prevent it is is currently unknown. It seems that such a question is not easily answerable without similar testing as went into the vaccines in the presence of current dominant strains of the virus. It is at least a possibility that it could interfere with the effectiveness.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
A quote from that Independent UK article:

...

Mutations making the virus less sensitive to antibodies have been a concern for “a long time” but remained theoretical until Monday 2 November, when Danish scientists saw the results of their studies.

They sent a risk assessment to the government on 3 November, warning that continued mink breeding could result in a substantial spread of the mutated virus and pose “a major risk to public health”.


.
 

Xuu

Honorable
The mutation is in the virus's spike protein, which is exactly the wrong spot we would want such a mutation to take place. The mutant strain is reported to be less sensitive to antibodies of people who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 in in vitro testing.

More than 200 people diagnosed with mink-related coronavirus in Denmark

Whether or not current vaccines will work to prevent it is is currently unknown. It seems that such a question is not easily answerable without similar testing as went into the vaccines in the presence of current dominant strains of the virus. It is at least a possibility that it could interfere with the effectiveness.

Makes sense, thanks!
 

August

Metanoia
Analysis: Does the coronavirus mink mutation pose a genuine risk in the fight against Covid-19?
BB1aSw7d.img
 

nivek

As Above So Below
We're getting over a half million new cases a day now and over 9000 deaths and climbing per day, the US, Italy, and Poland are out of control, well many countries have lost containment of the virus...

Screenshot_20201110-225107.jpg
 

AD1184

Celestial
The US looks like it is probably heading for at least 2,000 deaths a day in a couple of weeks' time, given the size of the current growing peak relative to that of the summer.
upload_2020-11-11_14-21-2.png

Despite some recent political mythologizing, including directly from Joe Biden, that coronavirus is mostly endemic to Republican states, the top ten states by number of new cases reported yesterday show five Democrat states and five Republican states, by both presidential votes and by state governor (Democrat: California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin; Republican: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Texas). There is only one Republican state in the top five (Texas).

US election 2020: Fact-checking Trump and Biden on Covid
 

AD1184

Celestial
This BBC article says that the Danish mink cull is in fact proceeding and that 2.85 million have been culled:

Coronavirus: Denmark shaken by cull of millions of mink

However, the Danish government admits that it exceeded its legal authority in ordering the cull, and is attempting to bring in emergency legislation to get retrospective permission for the cull order. There is currently a battle in the Danish parliament over it.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
This BBC article says that the Danish mink cull is in fact proceeding and that 2.85 million have been culled:

Coronavirus: Denmark shaken by cull of millions of mink

However, the Danish government admits that it exceeded its legal authority in ordering the cull, and is attempting to bring in emergency legislation to get retrospective permission for the cull order. There is currently a battle in the Danish parliament over it.

This is a no-brainer, it sounds more like China trying to protect its investment in these minks and to hell with everyone else...

...
 

AD1184

Celestial
There are a number of problems with a vaccine solution to the Covid-19 pandemic, even assuming that the vaccine is safe.

Vaccine effectiveness is generally age-dependent. They are more effective in younger people than in older people, who are the most vulnerable to Covid-19 infection. The 90% effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is for the study group as a whole, and the age distribution of the volunteers is likely to be younger than the general populations in countries that have been badly affected (all of the 'data' that were released were contained initially only in a press release, and not in a published study, I don't know if that situation has changed in the interim).

Using the flu vaccine as an example, a 75% rate of inoculation in vulnerable aged people is considered a very good rate of vaccination. The flu vaccination is typically about 75% effective, meaning that in such a scenario the flu vaccine gives around 56% coverage for this age group. The 44% not covered comprise those who were not, or could not, be inoculated, and those who were inoculated but in whom the vaccine is not effective.

Pfizer claims only that their vaccine causes a 90% reduction in symptomatic cases and not a 90% reduction in infections due to the virus. It may be much less effective in preventing asymptomatic infection. In turn, a vaccinated, asymptomatic individual may still be able to spread the virus to others without realizing. This is currently unknown.

We do not know yet how safe the vaccine is in older, vulnerable people.

Given that there is likely to be a significant proportion of older and otherwise vulnerable people who will not have direct vaccine coverage, they will need to rely upon any kind of herd immunity effect in the population, assuming that the complication mentioned above, of not necessarily preventing infection and transmission, is not a factor. The herd immunity threshold might be as high as 60-80%. If it is 60%, then about 67% of the population will have to be vaccinated, meaning that the number of doses required is about 134% of population, as it is a two-dose vaccine. It is difficult to persuade younger people to get vaccinated, so getting two-thirds of them vaccinated will be no easy task, given that it is likely to be legally (and certainly ethically) impossible to make vaccination compulsory for adults. This is a completely new vaccine technology, so people might be understandably wary of voluntarily accepting such an inoculation, as there has been no long-term monitoring of its safety as it is brand new.

There are of course problems with delivery of this vaccine, as it needs to be stored at cryogenic temperatures, much below those in typical medical refrigerators in doctor's surgeries. A vaccine centre will therefore need some kind of cryogenic refrigeration plant.
 

August

Metanoia
There are a number of problems with a vaccine solution to the Covid-19 pandemic, even assuming that the vaccine is safe.

Vaccine effectiveness is generally age-dependent. They are more effective in younger people than in older people, who are the most vulnerable to Covid-19 infection. The 90% effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is for the study group as a whole, and the age distribution of the volunteers is likely to be younger than the general populations in countries that have been badly affected (all of the 'data' that were released were contained initially only in a press release, and not in a published study, I don't know if that situation has changed in the interim).

Using the flu vaccine as an example, a 75% rate of inoculation in vulnerable aged people is considered a very good rate of vaccination. The flu vaccination is typically about 75% effective, meaning that in such a scenario the flu vaccine gives around 56% coverage for this age group. The 44% not covered comprise those who were not, or could not, be inoculated, and those who were inoculated but in whom the vaccine is not effective.

Pfizer claims only that their vaccine causes a 90% reduction in symptomatic cases and not a 90% reduction in infections due to the virus. It may be much less effective in preventing asymptomatic infection. In turn, a vaccinated, asymptomatic individual may still be able to spread the virus to others without realizing. This is currently unknown.

We do not know yet how safe the vaccine is in older, vulnerable people.

Given that there is likely to be a significant proportion of older and otherwise vulnerable people who will not have direct vaccine coverage, they will need to rely upon any kind of herd immunity effect in the population, assuming that the complication mentioned above, of not necessarily preventing infection and transmission, is not a factor. The herd immunity threshold might be as high as 60-80%. If it is 60%, then about 67% of the population will have to be vaccinated, meaning that the number of doses required is about 134% of population, as it is a two-dose vaccine. It is difficult to persuade younger people to get vaccinated, so getting two-thirds of them vaccinated will be no easy task, given that it is likely to be legally (and certainly ethically) impossible to make vaccination compulsory for adults. This is a completely new vaccine technology, so people might be understandably wary of voluntarily accepting such an inoculation, as there has been no long-term monitoring of its safety as it is brand new.

There are of course problems with delivery of this vaccine, as it needs to be stored at cryogenic temperatures, much below those in typical medical refrigerators in doctor's surgeries. A vaccine centre will therefore need some kind of cryogenic refrigeration plant.

Yes they said here that the Vaccine must be kept at -71 C. They are working on refrigeration eskies.
 
Top