Global Cooling or Global Warming?

Discussion in 'The Natural World' started by nivek, Aug 17, 2017.

  1. spacecase0

    spacecase0 earth human

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    1,177
    you just asked for research showing the soon timeline, so I linked it to you,
    do you not agree with the logic and data in the link I posted ?
    or is just that the conclusion they make is not very popular right now due to the political push for global taxes under the guise of climate issues ?
    I read your links, claiming that we can't predict something that we clearly can predict is not what I would call data. they each look like they are trying to get people not to worry, I don't see anything in them that is actually convincing.
     
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  2. Caeldeth

    Caeldeth Noble

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    No, I don't agree with the data. It's fear mongering at its finest. You should read the articles I posted. It debunks the entire myth that some magical ice age is going to appear out of absoloutly nowhere. Also, no. We cannot predict solar minimums. Zharkova is the only person in the world who believes she is correct, every other reputable solar scientist in a nut shell is saying she is very intelligent and knows her field, but she is wrong.

     
    Last edited: May 30, 2018
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  3. spacecase0

    spacecase0 earth human

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    1,177
    I did read the articles that you posted. I have also read actual ICCP reports and much more on the topic.
    what I posted has solid data from the past that matches the predictions that have been made with solid physics ideas. and from when it was posted the predictions have not changed, so they absolutely got this current solar min. accurate way before it happened.
    I guess from your point of view the weather reporter is also a fear monger.
    by your reply it seems like you did not read much of that site I linked to.
    so,
    let me sum it up for you.
    when modeling the energy the sun puts out
    you can look at it as gravitational pull of the planets on the sun (tides), or
    you can also look at the sun as a generator, the sun is made of plasma (electrically conductive) and the planets are little magnets orbiting (yes, this makes an electric generator), so you calculate out angular momentum and can figure out how much energy the generator will be putting out.
    either way the math works out the same.
    and when you run the numbers, you get a match to solar activity, and that matches weather on earth through now proven paths like gamma rays creating clouds and they get through when the earth has less of a magnetic shield (that is driven by the energy from the sun)
    this matches as far past as we have data.
    so it is not like an ice age is going to happen out of no where, it happens out of disrupted solar cycles and the magnetic field of the planet mercury when it resolidifies from being melted by the sun magnetic reversals
     
  4. Caeldeth

    Caeldeth Noble

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    Let me say this again. You cannot predict solar minimums. You can try, but you can't. You can come close to a prediction, but you can't. You simply cannot predict a solar minimum. It is a bit like making a long range weather foreast. Take that long range weather foreast with a grain of salt because it's never accurately predicted. If some of the best solar scientists say that it is impossible to predict, it's impossible to predict.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2018
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  5. Ottilie

    Ottilie Adept

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    Though I am definitely in the Global Warming camp these days per the science I do love the idea of a Global Cooling with serious winters! :) In my teen years I came across Marion Zimmer Bradley's Darkover novels - and fell in love with the culture she created around a world with fierce winters. Love, love, loved it! Am nostalgic for it to this day.
     
  6. 3FEL9

    3FEL9 Islander

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    2,222
    Dont you have any good winters in your area ?
     
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  7. Castle-Yankee54

    Castle-Yankee54 Celestial

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    Our last 3 winters have been fairly mild where I am......but usually means next year will be bad at least for snow.
     
  8. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Here you go, whether one wants to deny it or not, an ice age is coming, probably a mini ice age, but I have no doubts about it after much personal research into the subject...This is just a few research papers...

    Liu et al., 2011 “Climate events worldwide, such as the MWP and LIA, were seen in a 2485-year temperature series. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature both occurred during the EJE [Eastern Jin Event (343–425 AD)], but not in the late 20th century. The millennium-scale cycle of solar activity determined the long-term temperature variation trends, while century-scale cycles controlled the amplitudes of temperature. Sunspot minimum events were associated with cold periods. The prediction results obtained using caterpillar-SSA showed that the temperature would increase until 2006 AD on the central-eastern Plateau, and then decrease until 2068 AD, and then increase again.

    Evans, 2016 Four manifestations of unconventional climate influences are identified, each with at least as much effect on surface temperature as the direct heating effect of changes in total solar irradiance (TSI): external-driven albedo; countervailing cooling during TSI peaks, implied by the absence of corresponding peaks in the surface temperature record (the “notch”); the long-term sensitivity of surface warming to TSI increases; and the delay of ∼11 years between changes in underlying or smoothed TSI and the corresponding changes in surface temperature. We hypothesize these are all manifestations of a single force whose exact mechanism is unknown but whose crucial properties can be deduced: “Force X” modulates the Earth’s albedo, and lags TSI by one sunspot cycle or half the ∼22-year cycle of the Sun’s hydromagnetic dynamo. A second, alternative hypothesis is of “force N” for the notch and “force D” for the delayed force causing the other three manifestations. The notch-delay solar model can explain the global warming of the last few decades and centuries in terms of force X/D. Several solar indicators including TSI peaked ∼1986, but surface warming continued until ∼1998, which is explained by the delay. The notch-delay hypothesis predicts sustained and significant global cooling starting sometime in the period 2017 to 2022, of ∼0.3°C but perhaps milder (TSI estimates vary), as force X/D falls off in response to the marked decline in underlying TSI from around 2004—one of the three biggest and fastest falls in TSI since sunspot records began in 1610.”

    Torres and Guzmán, 2016 “Conclusions Based on our results, we propose the use of the Wolf’s Number Oscillation Index (WNOI) – as a more uniform alternative to the ONI – in the range over 30 and below -30. The analysis of the material presented and the arguments discussed allows us to define a possible relationship between phenomena related to Solar Cycle, the ENSO, climatic conditions, as well as some criteria for the establishment of public policies for preservation and remediation of the environment in the long run. We can conclude that solar activity oscillations impact the earth climatic conditions to such a extent that they become measurable only in the long run. The magnitude of the Solar Cycle – from 7 to 17 and a mean of 11.2 years – seems to support this statement. Based on the similarities of the Solar Cycles 5 and 24 we can expect a longer period of cold weather for the years 2022 y/o 2034, corresponding to the Solar Cycles 24 and 25.

    Salvador, 2013 “Using many features of Ian Wilson’s Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar minimums in their right time periods. The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr.”

    A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades
     
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  9. Ottilie

    Ottilie Adept

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    Ha! ;) I grew up with glorious winters, tho I live in sunny climes now. It was the way Marion Zimmer Bradley created a world of snow along with a culture that was wrapped up in the cozy of winter.

    (Our current culture is very winter unfriendly! Mainly winter is 'dangerous' and something to be endured rather than the exotic elixir it is - Ice Storms! :) Amazing!)
     
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  10. Caeldeth

    Caeldeth Noble

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    682
    So let me get this straght. You believe we are going to plunged into a horrible ice age in the next year or so. Our planet is 1.5C warmer since 1880. Your magical ice age, which won't happen anytime soon would only drop the temputure 0.3C. Now... how exactly would that bring an ice age? Your getting yourself paranoid, you wouldn't even notice your magical ice age even if it were to happen. Our warming would basically cancel it out.
     
  11. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Not paranoid, just following my own research, I can tell you are set in your beliefs which is fine, I'm not trying to take your warmulist blanket away from you, you will probably need it when it gets colder...
    b0004
     
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  12. Castle-Yankee54

    Castle-Yankee54 Celestial

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    The thing is that even if an ice age were to begin next winter.......its such a slow process we'd both be long dead by the time it was even obvious. A little ice age even takes some time to confirm and is also a slow process......though one could begin more rapidly if there were to be an eruption similar to Mount Toba.
     
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  13. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    27,448
    Of course, this cannot happen overnight or even in a year or two, it takes time, even a 30 year stretch can change average temperatures quite a bit...Also like you said the only way an ice age would happen quickly is if we had a major volcanic eruption...Not holding my breath for that to happen but its always an unknown possibility...I'm certainly not expecting rapid changes but if I'm going to be around for another 40 or 50 years it doesn't hurt to be prepared, especially if signs along those years give more indication of the coming cold...Its all very natural cycles of warming periods and colder periods, nothing magic about it...
     
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  14. Caeldeth

    Caeldeth Noble

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    Well, if the planet has warmed 1.5c how do you believe the temputure dropping 0.3c is going to cause an ice age? It wouldn't even be noticeable.
     
  15. Castle-Yankee54

    Castle-Yankee54 Celestial

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    I agree it never hurts to be prepared.....within reason of course. But 40 or 50 is still to short of a time period to now for sure. If a little ice age were to happen again it likely would take longer to know for sure.
     
  16. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Well you're fixated on one paper that estimated that 0.3c, there are dozen of other papers which you probably haven't read yet, on that link, its good research unless you're glass is full...
     
  17. Caeldeth

    Caeldeth Noble

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    Well, in the link you provided it said it would cause a 0.3c drop or perhaps even milder. So how do you think a 0.3c drop would effect a planet which has warmed 1.5c since 1880? You said you studied this extensivly, so I would expect an answer to my question without dodging it.
     
  18. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    I think the drop over the next 30 to 50 years will be more based upon a wide range of studies and research, not just that one paper that you are fixated on, but don't worry about it, I know what I need to do for my future, enjoy the warm weather and sunshine...q37
     
  19. Caeldeth

    Caeldeth Noble

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    682
    The 20 or so links in reseached into the subject last night all said a 0.3c drop or even milder. Where are the links that are saying anymore than that? I'm just asking questions on a subject you said you are well versed in and have done extensive research into. You can hold the sarcastic comments and answer my questions about the subject, because you are a more learned man on the subject than me. Or you can continue to dodge the question. I'm trying to learn here. So learn me.
     
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  20. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    27,448
    Yeah some do others state more drops, I'll pull up some other sources later today and post, I have about 8 main sources that branch out into various papers and studies and simulations...To me this subject is an interesting topic because its difficult to pin down anything definite, but the overall picture is a pattern of cooling then warming then cooling and so forth but with a long term cooling trend in the big picture which is extremely gradual...
     

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