nivek
As Above So Below
I wonder if they are predicting these storms from warming models or actual probabilities?...
I wonder if they are predicting these storms from warming models or actual probabilities?...
3FEL9
Islander
spacecase0
earth human
the version of warming that we are told by the news says it is more violent,
but if you look at history at warm times they are nice stable weather.
the reason the warming and cooling happens is energy from the sun.
here are the reasons why it happens as history shows us.
lots of sun energy causes warming, and the way it does this is by expanding the upper atmosphere,
that causes more insulation and more room for weather systems to happen, also it shields from cosmic rays that make clouds, so it is sunnier. makes for a fantastic place for plants to live.
when solar output drops, the upper atmosphere collapses and the cosmic rays are let in, so there is less insulation, more clouds, and less room for the weather to happen. so, less sun, cooler, and more random weather.
nivek
As Above So Below
The Weather Channel says the Atlantic waters are cooler than normal and probably will suppress the hurricanes this season...
Why the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Is Different from This Time Last Year, and What It Could Mean for Hurricane Season
3FEL9
Islander
CasualBystander
Celestial
Well... maybe.
People keep claiming this but not proving it.
Global warming reduces the polar/equatorial temperature differential.
Not sure the source/sink differential on storms will change a lot.
Caeldeth
Noble
They predict how violent a hurricane season will be by 30 years of statistical predictors with seasons that are similar is sea level pressure and air pressure in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The prediction of how violent a hurricane season will be is really just a guess. Many times they have called for an above average hurricane season and it becomes a historically low. Weather changes all the time, that is why I don't put any stock into long range weather models.
Yes and no. As casual pointed out it reduces the polar equatorial temputure differential. Warmer tempurtures could increase the amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere. It could effect storm formation around the mid latitudes like last years very violent hurricane season. Global warming may decrease the temputure at the poles and the equator which would decrease the amount of storms but make what storms do form very violent.
spacecase0
earth human
guess I should give my bias about now,
I love science
want to know how the world works
and these strange things called "anomaly"
you don't figure out how things work when everything is going well, you find out things where things are broken.
so I have looked at where people disagree
"global warming" totally had me convinced for many years,
but in reading the ICCP reports (did I spell that right ?)
it became clear that they were conflicting older reports
and the executive summaries were clearly summaries of fictional documents
just saying that when someone is lying, it is pretty clear.
they not only attacked logic, they crushed the scientific method.
when leaked emails have the phrase "the medieval warm period problem", you know you are dealing with someone that has an agenda. they are not seeking the truth at all.
this upset me a huge amount.
what these people are doing is a huge attack on science.
so,
when I went looking I found that the sun activity is linked to the weather.
they did not do pointless things in medieval europe, yet they recorded the sunspot number...
this is the "secret" to how the old farmers almanac predicts the weather with more than a 3/4 accuracy (they admitted this a while ago)
another thing, the idea of global weather is totally pointless. your farm output does not grow globally, it grows with roots in the ground in one spot. (so go look at historical farm output if this idea is annoying)
I guess my real bias is after all that is that if you get ready for warming, and you get cooling, you die
if you get ready for cooling (or nothing), then you are just fine.
when I started planting crops by sun activity and predicted weather based on that prediction, I stopped having weather related crop failures.
my small scale tests show us how critical this link to sun activity and local weather is.
I sure am not going to run out of food, but I worry about others.
I love science
want to know how the world works
and these strange things called "anomaly"
you don't figure out how things work when everything is going well, you find out things where things are broken.
so I have looked at where people disagree
"global warming" totally had me convinced for many years,
but in reading the ICCP reports (did I spell that right ?)
it became clear that they were conflicting older reports
and the executive summaries were clearly summaries of fictional documents
just saying that when someone is lying, it is pretty clear.
they not only attacked logic, they crushed the scientific method.
when leaked emails have the phrase "the medieval warm period problem", you know you are dealing with someone that has an agenda. they are not seeking the truth at all.
this upset me a huge amount.
what these people are doing is a huge attack on science.
so,
when I went looking I found that the sun activity is linked to the weather.
they did not do pointless things in medieval europe, yet they recorded the sunspot number...
this is the "secret" to how the old farmers almanac predicts the weather with more than a 3/4 accuracy (they admitted this a while ago)
another thing, the idea of global weather is totally pointless. your farm output does not grow globally, it grows with roots in the ground in one spot. (so go look at historical farm output if this idea is annoying)
I guess my real bias is after all that is that if you get ready for warming, and you get cooling, you die
if you get ready for cooling (or nothing), then you are just fine.
when I started planting crops by sun activity and predicted weather based on that prediction, I stopped having weather related crop failures.
my small scale tests show us how critical this link to sun activity and local weather is.
I sure am not going to run out of food, but I worry about others.
CasualBystander
Celestial
Well...
We won't be testing that theory this year.
The area of formation and near the coast is colder than normal. I believe it was quoted as coldest in 18 years.
Last year had above normal sea surface temperatures.
nivek
As Above So Below
I wanted to reply to this bit first...I am convinced and have been for many years that we are heading into a mini ice age, this warming is short term at best and it's a natural occurrence...With that said the gases we pump into the atmosphere is actually going to make that ice age colder than it would have been naturally...There hotter the weather gets, eventually it snaps back colder...
I've been preparing for the cold, we may not see it for 20 or 30 years but it cpuld get considerably colder in 10 years, I'll be old by then, old people cannot handle the cold well, I have to be prepared...If it stay warm so be it, I had something keeping me busy lol...
Caeldeth
Noble
That is just for the probable area of formation and that is, in most cases the mid latitudes. This does not account for the northeast seaboard which is not in the "probable" area of statistics and probable outcome of the weather models that are used. In my opinion though, this will not be a major hurricane season like last year. Wouldn't rule out some big boys though later in the season.
CasualBystander
Celestial
Temperature profile could change significantly during the summer.
We are going into a weak El Nino. Does that make hurricanes more or less likely?
Caeldeth
Noble
A weak El Nino is a toss up. It warms the ocean in the equatorial Pacific, but at the same time increases wind sheer in that same area that is favored for development. So when storms do form in years where there is El Nino influence they need to find that "sweet spot" to avoid that wind sheer so it can undergo rapid cyclonic development and become your category 4 and 5's. But in most cases, the amount of named hurricanes increases, the amount of violent long lived hurricanes decreases during years of El Nino influence.
CasualBystander
Celestial
Starting from below normal temperature water (except for a diagonal stripe far off the coast) I would expect a below average season.
Caeldeth
Noble
More than likely quieter in the Atlantic because of cooler water temp and the weak El Nino creates wind sheer in the Atlantic, but a much more active Pacific season because El Nino alters the sheer in such a way in the Pacific that it creates a breeding ground for violent Typhoons.
nivek
As Above So Below
From all the data I've seen it appears the Atlantic Ocean is cooler than normal this year, this should stifle hurricane production enough giving us a reasonable break from that type weather...What I think may occur as a result too is a cooler autumn and an earlier winter of bitter cold and snow...
CasualBystander
Celestial
California (which is always bitching) is bitching about drought again - a good hurricane should cure that.
It is amazing how few hurricanes walk up the Baja peninsula to hit California.
Is it the California Current that causes this?
Caeldeth
Noble
Last hurricane to hit California was 1858. They so rarely hit California because the ocean temputure in the northern Pacific has a sharp temputure cutoff. At the Baja water temps are in the 80's just 20 or 30 miles north of this it is in the high 60s to low 70s. That creates a roadblock and rips any tropical development apart before reaching the west coast.
Also has a lot to do with the winds. The prevailing winds in the northern hemisphere blow east to west. That is the track hurricanes usually follow. But in the Pacific the winds blow these storms away from land.
Its not impossible for a hurricane to hit California. Just damn near impossible.
3FEL9
Islander
Was he beat up by La Niña ?
CasualBystander
Celestial
Well...
He was slapped around a little bit.
Not sure it could be called a beating.
Let's just call it a progressive El Nino.