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As Above So Below
The Fight for the Future of Star Wars
The relative failure of ‘Solo’ has Lucasfilm in retreat, reverting to the franchise’s original model … and perhaps overreacting.
Four weeks ago, the Star Wars franchise was flying casual. Each of the first three entries in the rebooted tentpole property—The Force Awakens (2015), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016), and The Last Jedi (2017)—had made more than $1 billion worldwide, and presales and projections suggested that Solo: A Star Wars Story, the second Star Wars anthology movie, would break the record for a Memorial Day opening and extend Disney’s streak of lucrative Lucasfilms.
With the franchise’s finances seemingly sound, Lucasfilm flexed: On the day of Solo’s debut, The Hollywood Reporter revealed plans for more spinoffs starring “a slew of characters,” including a Boba Fett flick from James Mangold and Simon Kinberg, the duo behind 2017’s Oscar-nominated Logan.
What a difference a month makes. Since late May, much of the discourse surrounding Star Wars has centered on Solo’s surprisingly soft release, which featured an $84.4 million three-day domestic take and a steep, 65 percent drop-off in its second week.
Solo, which has grossed less than $200 million domestically and less than $350 million worldwide, will likely be the first film in the franchise to lose money, as compared to its budget (reportedly more than $250 million) and marketing costs. In assessing the situation, some sources have even invoked the F-word: “flop,” a foreign term where Star Wars is concerned.
Star Wars fatigue, which seemed like a hypothetical prospect when we invoked it last winter, now looms as a serious threat.
The recent torrent of cautionary news for the franchise carries real risks of overreaction, both on our part and on Lucasfilm’s. For one thing, yellow lights can turn green again: Even if these spinoff projects are frozen for now, Lucasfilm president Kathleen Kennedy could turn off the tractor beams at any time. For another, there’s no shortage of Star Wars on the way: In addition to dependable (if predictable) crowd pleaser J.J. Abrams’s trilogy-ending Episode IX, due out next December, Last Jedi director Rian Johnson has his own trilogy in the offing, and Game of Thrones adapters David Benioff and D.B. Weiss are also developing a cinematic series of an unspecified length.
At minimum, that’s six confirmed films in the pipeline, not to mention an animated TV series slated for this fall and a live-action TV show that will likely launch alongside Disney’s streaming service late next year. Spinoffs or no, it’s unlikely that Star Wars will experience any extended droughts at the theater after Episode IX. The suits may be easily startled, but Star Wars will soon be back, and in greater numbers.
That Solo is seen as a failure highlights the lofty baselines by which we judge Star Wars. The movie worked in a number of ways, got good (but not great) reviews, was the top draw in America in consecutive weeks, and made hundreds of millions of dollars. By comparison, the franchise spinoff that unseated Solo from the top spot at the box office, Ocean’s 8, got worse reviews and will likely make less money, but is generally regarded as a greater success.
That’s partly because of Ocean’s 8’s lower budget—maybe if Lucasfilm picked directors it could keep around and didn’t have to resort to repeated pricy reshoots, it wouldn’t be as big a deal that one of its movies might make “only” $400 million—but it’s also because Star Wars is a singular entity, even among major moneymakers.
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The relative failure of ‘Solo’ has Lucasfilm in retreat, reverting to the franchise’s original model … and perhaps overreacting.
Four weeks ago, the Star Wars franchise was flying casual. Each of the first three entries in the rebooted tentpole property—The Force Awakens (2015), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016), and The Last Jedi (2017)—had made more than $1 billion worldwide, and presales and projections suggested that Solo: A Star Wars Story, the second Star Wars anthology movie, would break the record for a Memorial Day opening and extend Disney’s streak of lucrative Lucasfilms.
With the franchise’s finances seemingly sound, Lucasfilm flexed: On the day of Solo’s debut, The Hollywood Reporter revealed plans for more spinoffs starring “a slew of characters,” including a Boba Fett flick from James Mangold and Simon Kinberg, the duo behind 2017’s Oscar-nominated Logan.
What a difference a month makes. Since late May, much of the discourse surrounding Star Wars has centered on Solo’s surprisingly soft release, which featured an $84.4 million three-day domestic take and a steep, 65 percent drop-off in its second week.
Solo, which has grossed less than $200 million domestically and less than $350 million worldwide, will likely be the first film in the franchise to lose money, as compared to its budget (reportedly more than $250 million) and marketing costs. In assessing the situation, some sources have even invoked the F-word: “flop,” a foreign term where Star Wars is concerned.
Star Wars fatigue, which seemed like a hypothetical prospect when we invoked it last winter, now looms as a serious threat.
The recent torrent of cautionary news for the franchise carries real risks of overreaction, both on our part and on Lucasfilm’s. For one thing, yellow lights can turn green again: Even if these spinoff projects are frozen for now, Lucasfilm president Kathleen Kennedy could turn off the tractor beams at any time. For another, there’s no shortage of Star Wars on the way: In addition to dependable (if predictable) crowd pleaser J.J. Abrams’s trilogy-ending Episode IX, due out next December, Last Jedi director Rian Johnson has his own trilogy in the offing, and Game of Thrones adapters David Benioff and D.B. Weiss are also developing a cinematic series of an unspecified length.
At minimum, that’s six confirmed films in the pipeline, not to mention an animated TV series slated for this fall and a live-action TV show that will likely launch alongside Disney’s streaming service late next year. Spinoffs or no, it’s unlikely that Star Wars will experience any extended droughts at the theater after Episode IX. The suits may be easily startled, but Star Wars will soon be back, and in greater numbers.
That Solo is seen as a failure highlights the lofty baselines by which we judge Star Wars. The movie worked in a number of ways, got good (but not great) reviews, was the top draw in America in consecutive weeks, and made hundreds of millions of dollars. By comparison, the franchise spinoff that unseated Solo from the top spot at the box office, Ocean’s 8, got worse reviews and will likely make less money, but is generally regarded as a greater success.
That’s partly because of Ocean’s 8’s lower budget—maybe if Lucasfilm picked directors it could keep around and didn’t have to resort to repeated pricy reshoots, it wouldn’t be as big a deal that one of its movies might make “only” $400 million—but it’s also because Star Wars is a singular entity, even among major moneymakers.
.
