Wars & Rumours of Wars
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nivek
As Above So Below
Baltic intelligence says Russia is building legal pretexts for hybrid strikes
Latvian intelligence is warning that Russia is preparing possible provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drones or any other hybrid attacks, in an effort to pressure NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine."We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland — not a conventional war, because Russia is not capable of that right now, but hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems," Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital.
The most immediate concern, according to Latvian intelligence, is not that Moscow is ready for a full-scale war with NATO, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin could miscalculate because the surrounding institutions are feeding him the version of reality he wants to hear.
The Baltic states and Poland are NATO allies, meaning a Russian provocation there could quickly test America’s treaty commitments and risk a broader confrontation. It also comes as Washington and its allies weigh how far to go in supporting Ukraine and tightening sanctions on Moscow.
Latvian intelligence argues that Putin is not only looking for ways to pressure NATO countries to back off Ukraine, but may also be receiving distorted assessments from inside his own system — raising the risk that Russia could misjudge Western resolve.
"The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions," Latvian intelligence said.
"We see more and more signs that Putin wants to receive only positive news. He is isolated, and that makes decision-making even more problematic as decisions are not based on the real situation," Latvian intelligence added.
The Latvian warning tracks with concerns raised by Polish officials during Fox News Digital reporting in June in Poland, where officials described Russia’s hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank as already underway. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki pointed to assassinations, drone activity, cyberattacks and attacks on critical infrastructure on NATO territory, including what he described as a Russian-instigated cyberattack on Polish energy infrastructure intended "to black out part of Poland."
Amb. Krzysztof Olendzki also described the Belarus border as part of a Russian and Belarusian campaign to weaponize illegal migration against NATO countries.
Latvian intelligence also assessed that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia, despite Moscow’s public claims that it has absorbed the pressure.
"Russia says publicly that sanctions do not matter, but its own internal assessments show that sanctions are biting," Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital. "They may not change Putin’s mindset, but they limit Russia’s financial resources and thus opportunities and force to make difficult choices regarding recruitment, military spending, and pressure on businesses. Its war economy is a crumbling ‘house of cards.’"
The assessment comes as Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, known as SAB, released a public report detailing how Russia is intensifying "lawfare" against the West — using courts, legal claims and international institutions to pressure Western governments, weaken support for Ukraine and create possible justification for more aggressive actions.
The report outlines Russian efforts to study Iran’s experience challenging Western sanctions through international legal mechanisms.
Russian experts have analyzed Iran’s 2016 case against the United States at the International Court of Justice and are looking for ways to adapt similar tactics against Western countries, according to the Constitution Protection Bureau.
(More on the link)
Trump's White House UFC fight target of 'explosive drones' plot with 'staged snipers' designed to kill thousands as FBI arrests five suspects
The FBI thwarted an alleged plot to use drones and sniper teams to harm attendees at Sunday's UFC Freedom 250 celebration at the White House, according to federal officials. The suspected masterminds planned to use explosive drones to hit buildings nearby to cause confusion and force an evacuation of the event, the officials told Fox News. Then, during the scramble, the plotters allegedly hoped that attendees would be steered towards their sniper team in waiting, the officials added. After that, the suspects allegedly planned a 'second wave' attack that involved rushing the White House gates, officials revealed.
As of Monday, five people were taken into custody in connection with the plan. Investigators have identified 23 people potentially involved in planning. The White House event drew around 4,300 attendees, including President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and countless other top Cabinet officials. Just outside of the White House on the National Mall, thousands of people were in the area watching the UFC fights. June is a popular time for tourists to come to Washington, too, and America 250 events have drawn large crowds to the city. Officials said the FBI was first tipped off to the scary plot on June 10 and worked with law enforcement to find probable cause for an arrest. One suspect was taken into custody in Cincinnati, according to officials.
The plotters allegedly discussed their plans in encrypted Signal chats, which investigators later accessed. Officials said that at least 23 Signal users were involved in discussing the alleged plan, including operational details on how to carry it out. Some of those in the chat went so far as to travel to Fredericksburg, Virginia, around June 12 or June 13 to prepare for the attack. The town is just about an hour's drive south of Washington. One suspect allegedly told authorities the group was targeting 'capitalist elites' and 'billionaires.'
Several billionaires were there, including Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg, Paramount and CBS boss David Ellison, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and others. Many in the presidential line of succession were also at the Sunday evening event. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and FBI Director Kash Patel were all there. Also on the alleged target list were politicians who received donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), according to sources.
(More on the link)
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Is April's supposed Iranian drones formation (moving together like a "Jellyfish" as witnessed by the downed F-15E Strike Eagle pilot) rather just another US Military plot to perpetuate the war with Iran? Because at this point I guess nobody knows what to believe anymore...
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
I don't know because of the nonsense that spews out of media orifices masquerading as news. I follow some open source channels on X but don't necessarily take them as gospel.
The Iranian mediators seem to be making more reasonable statements like maybe that last outburst from Trump got their attention. A lot of the IRGC rhetoric we hear is intended for internal consumption, nobody can seriously think they won anything. They don't seem to be shooting at anything so we have no need to shoot back, there are mine clearing operations in progress, tanker traffic has been increasing and fuel prices here have been dropping very noticeably. Still high but on its way down. I've heard there is a humanitarian crisis in the making in Iran and that some of the frozen assets could be used to purchase US grains, food, medicine, that sort of thing. I really have no problem with "blowing the shit" out of them but in the end its the populace that suffers not the dictatorship, very much like what's happening in Cuba right now.
Having seen what we've done over the past 25 years that doesn't seem to be the case here, thank God. Between Venezuela, Cuba and Iran this administration has been taking a different approach. No virtue signaling, huge expensive military operations and no talk of nation building. I do know the Defense Production Act was used to increase munitions stockpiles, also that the Navy has had to rethink its shipbuilding requirements and capabilities and that overall they're talking about a massive 1.5 trillion defense spending bill. Maybe that'll placate the military industrial complex sufficiently. I'm sure something else to blow up will come along soon enough.
The Iranian mediators seem to be making more reasonable statements like maybe that last outburst from Trump got their attention. A lot of the IRGC rhetoric we hear is intended for internal consumption, nobody can seriously think they won anything. They don't seem to be shooting at anything so we have no need to shoot back, there are mine clearing operations in progress, tanker traffic has been increasing and fuel prices here have been dropping very noticeably. Still high but on its way down. I've heard there is a humanitarian crisis in the making in Iran and that some of the frozen assets could be used to purchase US grains, food, medicine, that sort of thing. I really have no problem with "blowing the shit" out of them but in the end its the populace that suffers not the dictatorship, very much like what's happening in Cuba right now.
Having seen what we've done over the past 25 years that doesn't seem to be the case here, thank God. Between Venezuela, Cuba and Iran this administration has been taking a different approach. No virtue signaling, huge expensive military operations and no talk of nation building. I do know the Defense Production Act was used to increase munitions stockpiles, also that the Navy has had to rethink its shipbuilding requirements and capabilities and that overall they're talking about a massive 1.5 trillion defense spending bill. Maybe that'll placate the military industrial complex sufficiently. I'm sure something else to blow up will come along soon enough.
I definitely will continue despising X, as well as most of social media platforms for that matter. I'm still only keeping my YouTube account though, as long as the fewer and fewer honest, sincere and serious YT channels survive there. As for mainstream/legacy media outlets, for the VERY most part I really can't even read their headlines, oh well...
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
X is largely drivel, I look at it during my morning routine but I admit Grok is handy at times.
Last night we watched a movie on Amazon Prime and this morning X is showing me clips of it. No secrets anymore at least as far as we are concerned.
Makes me wonder how They, whoever They are, can possibly keep a lid on the stuff Grusch has been talking about or whatever other mystery there might be. One tiny leak from one person would be enough in today’s environment to bust the whole thing open.
Last night we watched a movie on Amazon Prime and this morning X is showing me clips of it. No secrets anymore at least as far as we are concerned.
Makes me wonder how They, whoever They are, can possibly keep a lid on the stuff Grusch has been talking about or whatever other mystery there might be. One tiny leak from one person would be enough in today’s environment to bust the whole thing open.
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
U.S. Strikes Iran in Response to Attack on Commercial Vessel
Obviously there are rogue elements of the IRGC that refuse to acknowledge the reality of the situation. Frankly if I were the man actually launching those drones I'd find a reason to go take a cigarette break very far away (and I don't smoke) because inevitably something Made in the USA is going to come screaming back in on the same track soon enough.
Right now I have my nose in this book and it centers around the situation in Imperial Japan just before and after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It gets into detail about personalities, culture etc and those were certainly some hardcore crazy m***********s and you couldn't write more nail biting fiction. Those who knew they had to sue for peace were under constant threat of violence and assassination and I can only imagine something very similar and equally disconnected from reality is plying out in Iran right now. At the time extreme elements referred to gyokusai, which translates literally as "shattering like a jewel" or "dying gallantly as a jewel shatters". They'd literally prefer national suicide without taking into account what the population might actually think. At least they had a leader who could put an end to it, I doubt Iran's would have and in any case that doesn't matter anymore.
I haven't seen anyone in the media that has made mention of that, I'd imagine mostly shallow sound byte nature of it all that panders to shallow sound byte thinking.
Obviously there are rogue elements of the IRGC that refuse to acknowledge the reality of the situation. Frankly if I were the man actually launching those drones I'd find a reason to go take a cigarette break very far away (and I don't smoke) because inevitably something Made in the USA is going to come screaming back in on the same track soon enough.
Right now I have my nose in this book and it centers around the situation in Imperial Japan just before and after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It gets into detail about personalities, culture etc and those were certainly some hardcore crazy m***********s and you couldn't write more nail biting fiction. Those who knew they had to sue for peace were under constant threat of violence and assassination and I can only imagine something very similar and equally disconnected from reality is plying out in Iran right now. At the time extreme elements referred to gyokusai, which translates literally as "shattering like a jewel" or "dying gallantly as a jewel shatters". They'd literally prefer national suicide without taking into account what the population might actually think. At least they had a leader who could put an end to it, I doubt Iran's would have and in any case that doesn't matter anymore.
I haven't seen anyone in the media that has made mention of that, I'd imagine mostly shallow sound byte nature of it all that panders to shallow sound byte thinking.
nivek
As Above So Below
Gulf countries strongly condemn Iran's drone attack on Bahrain as rising tensions threaten MOU
Several Gulf countries have strongly denounced Iran's Saturday drone strikes on the island nation of Bahrain, while vowing to stand united against any possible aggression from Tehran in the future.This escalation poses the greatest threat yet to the memorandum of understanding signed last week by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
After Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, the U.S. launched overnight airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone and radar sites. Iran responded Saturday with the drone strikes on Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.
The Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, called Iran's attack on Bahrain "treacherous," adding that it will undermine ongoing peace efforts in the Middle East.
The GCC represents the interests of Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, several of which released their own statements condemning Iran.
Bahrain itself issued a response, confirming that Iran flew a number of drones into its territory and calling the strikes a "flagrant threat" to the nation's security. It remains unclear exactly which areas Iran targeted.
(More on the link)
Dejan Corovic
As above, so bellow
Want to predict Trump's next move?
Here it is spelled out on US Department of War site as National Security Policy:
Here it is spelled out on US Department of War site as National Security Policy:
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
They've shown remarkable patience so far with limited retaliatory strikes but it certainly sounds like the policy of 'blow the shit' out of them is inevitable. Those negotiating are not in control of the radical factions who want jihad.
Whatever we destroy they can't replace and I know last night CENTCOM worked over quite a number of the IRGC's sites that can reach into the Strait. That may quiet them down a while but I doubt it. When the time comes they'll green light the Israelis who will be more than happy to drop that million pound shit hammer on them.
Gas prices have dropped precipitously and I would have said in a week or two they'd be back to pre war levels, now I doubt it.
Whatever we destroy they can't replace and I know last night CENTCOM worked over quite a number of the IRGC's sites that can reach into the Strait. That may quiet them down a while but I doubt it. When the time comes they'll green light the Israelis who will be more than happy to drop that million pound shit hammer on them.
Gas prices have dropped precipitously and I would have said in a week or two they'd be back to pre war levels, now I doubt it.
AD1184
Celestial
The initial US/Israeli strategy was to assassinate as many Iranian political leaders as possible. It is hardly surprising, then, that there is no coherent executive branch of the Iranian government remaining with authority to negotiate afterward. That creates a bit of a sticky wicket when your off-ramp for ending the conflict relies on the existence of one.
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
And if those leaders were still alive this would be simpler? The answer is kill some more. It would be exponentially worse had none of this happened and then one day there was evidence of a nuclear test. In that case Israel would not fail to act and it would be disastrous
nivek
As Above So Below
Hundreds of thousands dead and billions spent for 12 miles, insane...
Another video from the western city of Ryazan shows two men engaging in an intense fistfight outside a petrol station until someone intervenes.
In a third video, filmed in the town of Serov, a woman is seen with a bloodied nose after a man allegedly punched her and violently attacked both her and her companion during a fight over fuel.
It comes as Putin acknowledged that the country was suffering from 'a certain shortage' of fuel in an interview published by the Kremlin Sunday, after repeated Ukrainian strikes in their four-year war.
(More on the link)
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Russians fight over fuel at gas stations as Putin admits to shortages in wake of Ukrainian attacks
In Moscow, two women waiting in a queue were filmed screaming at each other after one accused the other of cutting in line. '**** you! I'll smash your face in!' one of them shouts.Another video from the western city of Ryazan shows two men engaging in an intense fistfight outside a petrol station until someone intervenes.
In a third video, filmed in the town of Serov, a woman is seen with a bloodied nose after a man allegedly punched her and violently attacked both her and her companion during a fight over fuel.
It comes as Putin acknowledged that the country was suffering from 'a certain shortage' of fuel in an interview published by the Kremlin Sunday, after repeated Ukrainian strikes in their four-year war.
(More on the link)
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pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
This is what happens when your decapitation strike goes limp.
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
Ahh, back to blowing up Iran, no surprise there. What did they think was going to happen? I've read that the IDF was involved but am not sure at this point
Can't embed the video but it's worth a look
U.S. Forces Complete Another Round of Strikes Against Iran
Public Releases | July 8, 2026
USCENTCOM
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed an additional round of strikes against Iran, July 8, to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. forces struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline. The latest strikes follow successful execution of offensive strikes in Iran the night before.
CENTCOM forces hit approximately 80 Iranian military targets July 7, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats, to impose heavy costs for Iran violating the ceasefire by attacking three commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. forces remain vigilant, lethal, and prepared to execute operations directed by the Commander in Chief.
Can't embed the video but it's worth a look
U.S. Forces Complete Another Round of Strikes Against Iran
Public Releases | July 8, 2026
USCENTCOM
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed an additional round of strikes against Iran, July 8, to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. forces struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline. The latest strikes follow successful execution of offensive strikes in Iran the night before.
CENTCOM forces hit approximately 80 Iranian military targets July 7, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats, to impose heavy costs for Iran violating the ceasefire by attacking three commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. forces remain vigilant, lethal, and prepared to execute operations directed by the Commander in Chief.
AD1184
Celestial
What did the Trump administration think was going to happen?
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
That Iran would successfully develop a nuclear weapon and couple it with their ballistic missile capability, that's what. I don't think there's dispute over that. Last I checked I don't speak for the Trump administration or anyone else.
IMO no one seriously expected to end the dispute through negotiation, attempting to do so has created dissent within his own Cabinet and the GOP. At least it can be said they did try and offered Iran a number of off ramps that they have repeatedly rejected in one form or another either due to the fragmentation of leadership or their own unrealistic determination. Likely both. The US military can certainly inflict pain when and where it chooses and personally I hope they continue to do so, I suppose it's theoretically possible to reach a tipping point with the IRGC. In the meantime have zero empathy for Iran and just want to enjoy the show.
Dejan Corovic
As above, so bellow
Option #1 - you go to Iran to fight for president, you came back home with PTSD and body parts missing.
Option #2 - with that same money, you go to university, get better living standard for yourself and your family till the end of life..
pigfarmer
tall, thin, irritable
Option #1 - nobody's talking about another Iraq/Afghanistan shitshow. Many people join the military to gain skills and various benefits and the majority are not in combat.
Option # 2 - 'Democratic Socialism' is just Socialism with a happy sounding wrapper and historically it just doesn't work and most certainly not on this scale. 'Democratic reforms through elections' ? Are you aware of what's going on in Maine right now or the story behind that Biden/Harris mess? Even Democrats have objected to the Party installing who they like which they do at their leisure when convenient.
There are solid reasons why Voter ID is a current bipartisan concern, it's the Democratic Party that objects to keep itself in power. Right now I live under a liberal Democratic government and you would shit bricks if you had to pay the taxes I do, I certainly don't consider them fair - I pay and pay for literally everything.
That's a silly meme not an accurate political statement.
At least I can speak my mind here without fear of The Government locking me up.
Option # 2 - 'Democratic Socialism' is just Socialism with a happy sounding wrapper and historically it just doesn't work and most certainly not on this scale. 'Democratic reforms through elections' ? Are you aware of what's going on in Maine right now or the story behind that Biden/Harris mess? Even Democrats have objected to the Party installing who they like which they do at their leisure when convenient.
There are solid reasons why Voter ID is a current bipartisan concern, it's the Democratic Party that objects to keep itself in power. Right now I live under a liberal Democratic government and you would shit bricks if you had to pay the taxes I do, I certainly don't consider them fair - I pay and pay for literally everything.
That's a silly meme not an accurate political statement.
At least I can speak my mind here without fear of The Government locking me up.