Will World War Three be the End of the World?

[AlienView]

I ask this now in view of the current Russia Ukraine War which may escalate out of control.
The relations between the world's major nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, have never been worse with Russian leader Putin putting his countries large nuclear arsenal on alert.

Say things go from bad to worse; Putin launches a few nukes because his army can not defeat the Ukrainians.

And/or the war spills over into say Poland, now a NATO country.

Say from there it turns into an all out 'hot war' with nukes.

- Considering the Planet's climate is already bad from global warming and pollution - Will even a limited nuclear war create an Earth with an unlivable environment?

Considering that some with resources and connections will shelter deep under ground in fortified bunkers with at least a few years of food and water - But in the long run will anyone survive?

If this current Russian Ukraine conflict leads to WWIII will it be the end of the World ?

 

[Kchoo]

If nukes are used, they will not be ICBM.
So, not the end of the world.

But, if nukes are used, it will become tit for tat, and Putin knows he can't afford that.

Further, I think he has realized nothing good will come to him now. He has already lost more than he can ever gain... his only chance if it isn't too late, is to beg forgiveness, back off, and play nice.

But, I do not think he will be on this planet much longer. Somebody is going to get him.

 

[nivek]

I grew up and lived through the cold war seeing its triumphant end with Ronald Reagan as President...Now here we are 40+ years later and a real possibility of a nuclear detonation is on our horizon once more...Many of these leaders like Biden and Putin have also lived through the cold war, hopefully they use those past experiences to guide their actions moving forward...

...

 

[Dejan Corovic]

Ronald Reagan and Gorbachev had one good idea: uniting US & CCCP against alien invasion. Seriously, they both talked about it. They both knew their own people well. People love wars. People want wars. Half of all art is devoted to wars and heroes.

That's why we need this alien disclosure ASAP.

 

[nivek]

I grew up and lived through the cold war seeing its triumphant end with Ronald Reagan as President...Now here we are 40+ years later and a real possibility of a nuclear detonation is on our horizon once more...Many of these leaders like Biden and Putin have also lived through the cold war, hopefully they use those past experiences to guide their actions moving forward...

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I'm concerned about the 'leaders' we will have after Biden and Putin...We have seen more radical ideas rise up through the political spectrum in ALL parties and affiliation...What strong arm individual will take over Russia once Putin dies or steps down, what far right or far left politican will we see take the presidency once Biden's horrible first and only term is finished?...Whatever happens the trend does not look good...

...

 

[nivek]

If there is another world war it may spell the end of society as we know it and may take the world decades to recover...

...

 

[pigfarmer]

As dusty as the reference may be go read Barbara Tuchman's Guns of August and you'll instantly see the reference. Alternatively you could listen to Dan Carlin's Blueprint for Armageddon series if you have a lot of time. He mentions Sir Ernest Henry Shackleton's Antarctic expedition 1914-1916. The war started just as he left for his expedition and it was the first on an industrial scale that horrified everyone. A result of treaty obligations that lined up like dominoes that led to war. Shackelton was in disbelief to return and hear that it was still going on when no one at the time thought loss and destruction could continue at that rate beyond a matter of weeks. It certainly did.

The Russians are doing what Russians generally do in these matters; crudely bludgeon without the regard for the individual soldier (or about anything else) that we have. As true today as it was 150 years ago, 100, 50 years and today. They can take the pounding and keep at it so what they are doing in Ukraine is not a surprise. Leadership comes directly from the top - and I mean directly. In WW2 Stavka grew into a more professional organization that functioned well but still wore the draconian yoke of centralized control. There was military genius to be found but in general individualists were shot and those that toed the line retained. It had a drastic impact on the war early on for lack of competence, a factor that took two years at least to overcome. We've seen a number of top Russian generals get killed - I wonder how many were really by the Ukrainians.

Nobody wants to pop nukes in the middle of that breadbasket, although it is a possibility that can't be discounted. If you could explain the situation to Shakelton he'd understand based on his own experience - that something totally nuts can become reality. But I think it more likely that raw materials, grain, oil etc are at the heart of this and not necessarily exterminating Nazism in Ukraine or a desire to free Russian speaking peoples. Not sure when they started to give a crap about people - they didn't. I happen to be reading a book about Kursk right now and right in that same area the Russians lost 500K+ soldiers attempting to take Kiev. The scale is enormous compared to now. Ultimately they did. National Socialism must be like crabgrass, you can never get rid of that ****. They are in it for the material wealth and access to the Sea of Azov and Black Sea to exploit it from the beginning which I find much more likely. I can't see the use of a nuke short of some dramatic change in what we have now, even as a face saving gesture. It won't win the war for anyone - hard to see any reason to do so.

I think a much more likely place to worry about it Korea. This scares the bejeezus out of me because those people, North and Soth, are ****ing nuts.

South Korea to create new command that would control strategic weapons

South Korea to create new command that would control strategic weapons​

By Daehan Lee
Monday, Jul 11

South Korea's Hyunmoo II missile system, left, and a U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, right, fire missiles during a combined military exercise between the two countries at an undisclosed location in the Asian nation on July 29, 2017. (South Korean Defense Ministry via AP)
SEOUL — South Korea will establish a strategic command by 2024 to oversee the country’s preemptive strike strategy and the assets to execute it, the Defense Ministry said during a meeting with the newly elected president.
During a July 6 seminar led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, the ministry discussed key defense policies meant to counter the threat of North Korean nuclear missiles, including the Kill Chain strategy and well as more efficient efforts to develop defense capabilities.
The ministry said the strategic command, which would fall under the purview of the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, is to integrate and efficiently operate all South Korean armed forces’ strategic weapons systems, currently controlled by each military branch individually. The command would also give the orders to subordinate military assets to strike enemy targets or intercept hostile missiles as part of the Kill Chain strategy and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan.
Kill Chain is a preemptive strike strategy that the South Korean military would implement against key North Korean military facilities, such as missile silos, when intelligence organizations confirm an imminent attack. KMPR involves the use of ballistic missiles and highly explosive weapons against an offensive nuclear attack. Its purpose is essentially the total destruction of North Korea’s capital Pyongyang.
The units and capabilities that would fall under the forthcoming strategic include:

• The Army’s Missile and Strategic Command, which operates Hyunmoo ballistic missiles.
• The Air Force’s Missile Defense Command, which operates PAC-3 anti-air missiles, F-35A fighter jets and Global Hawk surveillance aircraft.
• The Navy’s 3000-ton submarines that feature sub-launched ballistic missiles.
• Military surveillance satellites.
• Cyberwarfare- and space-focused forces.

The military is also expected to adjust the duties of the Army’s Missile and Strategic Command and the Air Force’s Missile Defense Command.
“The key assets of Kill Chain and KMPR are individually managed by the Army, Navy and Air Force. I can assure that the STRATCOM [strategic command] would be highly efficient if those divided strategic assets of each military branch are combined as one single unit,” Uk Yang, the associate research fellow of Asan Institute for policy studies, told Defense News.
The former commander of the Air Force’s Air Defense Command, Myung-guk Kwon, agreed. “This means that one commander at a combined command center could execute offensive and defensive operations based on analyses of coherent information. I believe this will be an efficient command system.”
For the chain of command, a three-star general or admiral is expected to take the lead of the planned command, with the military branches taking turns to lead.
The Defense Ministry also said it plans to strengthen intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities; preemptive strike capabilities; and the country’s missile defense architecture.

 

[pigfarmer]

A friend gave me Citadel: The Battle of Kursk by Robin Cross


Wouldn't have gone looking for it but it was a nice gift, I'm enjoying it. No maps, or any decent ones anyway. Books like this absolutely require maps. Published 1993, well made and bound, beautiful paper; things like that go overlooked anymore. British author, writes very well, no effort at all to read and he paints very human characters out of dusty two dimensional historical figures. I feel as if I should be in an overstuffed leather chair in front of a big fireplace, drinking cognac and talking about things like 'von Manstein's riposte... ' and so forth.

Point is, what's old is new again. Different dictator, different times but not so much we don't have at least some sense of deja vu. The resources the Nazis were after are probably still there.

Went back and fished out a couple of quotes I thought supported what I posted earlier

p.76 & 77- after the post-Stalingrad reorganization ....

Fear of draconian punishment was a large factor in the Red Army's continuing tactical inflexibility up to the army level. After the war American general Omar Bradley commented that a US lieutenant was granted greater authority on the Elbe than a Russian divisional commander. Only a front [Soviet designation of a front is several armies operating together] commander could, on occasion, exercise personal initiative. At lower levels, armies, corps and divisions were the pawns of Stavka, rigidly bound by plans and instructions from higher commands. Even a general was most reluctant to assume responsibility for an action without a detailed accompanying dokumenta.

Even after the great encirclements of 1941 ...... Hitler had not come close to destroying the manpower which Stalin remorselessly fed into the Soviet war machine

after an inability to destroy the Soviet industrial base in the north, which was 80% of it's total capacity ......

... in August 1941 Hitler had fatally switched his main effort from the centre to the south, elevating the seizure of industries of the Donbas to the status of strategic objective.

 

[Todd Feinman]

Pigfarmer, you would make an excellent librarian!

 

[pigfarmer]

excellent librarian

I'd like that, honestly.

 

[Todd Feinman]

I'd like that, honestly.

I assume you have an undergraduate degree? If so, you could apply for and attend a remote MLIS program. I bet you have very good computer skills. If you can't get the MLIS, then you might be able to get a different position in a library, but it may not pay as well. You should certainly investigate!

 

[Todd Feinman]

You just need that degree and an... Infinite amount of patience.

 

[nivek]

A question for history buffs, could Hitler have won WW2 in Europe had he not double-crossed Stalin by breaking the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and invaded Eastern Europe?...

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[Todd Feinman]

A question for history buffs, could Hitler have won WW2 in Europe had he not double-crossed Stalin by breaking the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and invaded Eastern Europe?...

...

I'm no expert, but hard to say.. Hitler needed fuel and even if he was eventually able to take Russia, could he deal with a guerilla insurgency there? The US would still be ramping up production of military hardware, and it is hard to imagine that Germany would win, long-term. Perhaps if Hitler had focused on producing more and more jets, and eventually developed nuclear bombs, things would have turned out differently, though it would be a matter of timing. I just don't see how Germany could have managed to hold all of the territory necessary for world domination.

 

[pigfarmer]

I assume you have an undergraduate degree? If so, you could apply for and attend a remote MLIS program. I bet you have very good computer skills. If you can't get the MLIS, then you might be able to get a different position in a library, but it may not pay as well. You should certainly investigate!

I have a BS in Information Technology. Can't spell bullshit without a BS in IT

Very interesting idea - thanks ! Never once dawned on me to even look at it and now I will.

 

[pigfarmer]

In May of 1941 you could make a plausible argument that they already had won WW2 since they already controlled much of Europe.

At that point Nazi Germany had the training, equipment and manpower that vastly outstripped literally any other power save the Soviet Union. If they had simply consolidated their gains up to that point they had the manpower, arms and equipment to hold continental Europe as long as they wished. Spain and Italy were fascist and without any distraction Germany could have driven the British from Egypt. The Middle East would have taken on a very different character - the political intrigue in that region we see now is mild by comparison. The Mediterranean would be fascist, they would control the Suez canal and direct routes to the Indian Ocean and their Axis partners.

In context, In May of 1941 the United States was not at war with Imperial Japan or anyone else. Many of the former colonial territories resented European hegemony - India being a big one. Had Egypt and the Middle East fallen India would have thrown off British rule much earlier and on their own terms. Without the strike at Pearl Harbor there would have been no US declaration of war on Japan. In reality Hitler declared war on the US four days later as a result and a secure and unengaged Nazi Germany would have been a far more credible, possibly existential threat. Also in context, we were not yet a particularly credible world military power; we had lots of potential but no experience.

But he did launch Barbarossa and lost the war as a result in June 1941. Everything after that date was just the drama playing out, their goose was cooked. I really don't think anyone under those circumstances would have been capable of defeating the Soviets in defense. Period. The bulk of the killing, the titanic clashes of WW2 happened on the Eastern Front. Things like The Battle of the Bulge or Bastogne or any of the icons we Americans hold dear literally pale by comparison.

There is a general connection to Fortean topics here. There was a case made that assassinating Hitler would be counterproductive to Allied interest - and that's accurate. He stuck his fingers in everything, did what the hell he wanted without the qualifications to do so and squandered precious resources. Me-262 jets for example. Cronies like Ferdinand Porsche were able to dangle various wonder weapon concepts at him that he absolutely loved - cool ones like enormous tanks, etc. He had a predilection for advanced gadgetry as the leader of a country that already excelled at such things. He had a fascination with the occult too. This has created a mysticism, a belief that they just might've come up with something truly radical even by today's standards. I think that's a cultural memory or some such, a belief that's filtered down over time. Nazi Bell, death rays, all that. Lots of hype, very little substance. Hollywood loves stuff like that - makes me want to watch Raiders of the Lost Ark again. I've been to the Aberdeen Proving Grounds a couple of times and have seen lots of German armor and equipment. Believe me, if they had something, they used it.

 

[Todd Feinman]

I have a BS in Information Technology. Can't spell bullshit without a BS in IT

Very interesting idea - thanks ! Never once dawned on me to even look at it and now I will.

Good Lord! You ought to look at it immediately and see if it is a feasible thing for you to do and would pay enough. You Shoulda been a librarian a long time ago! Again, the requirement for endless patience with people is actually the most important part of the job........ Being a "Patientarian"
If you can do computer networks and other stuff, you could also get a job as a library IT guy, too.

 

[pigfarmer]

Good Lord! You ought to look at it immediately and see if it is a feasible thing for you to do and would pay enough. You Shoulda been a librarian a long time ago! Again, the requirement for endless patience with people is actually the most important part of the job........ Being a "Patientarian"
If you can do computer networks and other stuff, you could also get a job as a library IT guy, too.

At 58 I’m not certain there’s a return on investment there, but what the hell. Some people start new careers much later in life.

Hell, if a local library even had a historical reading group I’d go. Probably have to start one

 

[Todd Feinman]

At 58 I’m not certain there’s a return on investment there, but what the hell. Some people start new careers much later in life.

Hell, if a local library even had a historical reading group I’d go. Probably have to start one

Age, and cost and payoff certainly are a big part of the decision. I'm 53 now, and have been at the library I work at now for 28 years. You could still get a job as a library IT person --but you would make a great reference librarian.
Actually many of the librarians I went to school with were considerably older that you are --they got into the profession before the MLS was required, and had to end up getting one to stay in the profession or progress to management, but it still might be an option for you --it would take about three years to get through a MLIS program. You could probably do it remotely --maybe through University of WA or a different school offering a remote program. You could also get a different kind of job in a library --like working in a makerspace!

 

[AlienView]

Nobody wants to pop nukes in the middle of that breadbasket, although it is a possibility that can't be discounted.

Could they not see what was happening pre WWII?

Hitler made it plain and clear - And yet the World did nothing - Let him arm to the teeth, form military alliances with the coming axis powers of Japan, Italy, etc. and just stood by and gave him and the Axis the advantage.

How many lives could have been saved and suffering stopped if the rest of the World acted to stop him?

Same thing with this new Hitler, Putin, in Russia - Economic sanctions are obviously totally insufficient
and we are back to a situation that requires a first strike that tells Putin that we, the United States, et al,
are going to stop him one way or the other - Not sitting by and waiting for Putin to either complete
his genocide {by definition the elimination of the Ukraine is a genocide} slowly by bombing Ukraine out of
existence or launching one or more nukes to speed up the process if he can't afford the cost of the slow
rate his genocide is going at.

If Hitler was stopped WWII would not have happened.
- If Putin is stopped WWIII can still be prevented!