Just noticed a disturbing change in the official number of infections in my area:
March 17
"There are now 136 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Louisiana, with 94 of those in New Orleans alone, one of the hottest spots in the nation."
Louisiana Coronavirus Updates: 3rd death from virus; business closings expand
March 18
"Coronavirus in Louisiana: Now 280 COVID-19 cases in state, 196 in New Orleans"
This is what epidemiologists mean when they talk about "exponential spread" - when infections from a contagion double every day (or even every two or three days), it doesn't take long for an entire nation of hundreds of millions of people to become infected. Gauging from the rapid acceleration of new cases in the US, we've gone from being about two weeks behind Italy, to being about 8 days behind Italy.
It's also important to bear in mind that the official cases lag the actual cases by about eight days (and most infections go unreported because most people only get mild symptoms that don't require professional medical intervention), and at this point it's reasonable to assume that the official numbers multiplied by about 1000 will give a fairly accurate estimate of
the actual number of people who are infected right now without even knowing it, because they haven't shown symptoms yet.
Let's see what this means if we extrapolate forward. About one week ago, the Ohio Department of Health Director estimated that 1% of the US population was infected. Let's estimate conservatively and double this number each week to see where it's heading:
-1 week: 1%
+0 week: 2% (today)
+1 week: 4%
+2 weeks: 8%
+3 weeks: 16%
+4 weeks: 32%
+5 weeks: 64%
That's pretty alarming - at this rate the virus could infect the entire country by May 1st, unless we take drastic action to keep people from coming into contact with other people and their infectious sneezes, coughs, and their mucosal residues left behind on doorknobs, handles, countertops, tables, etc.