Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

AD1184

Celestial
I think the state of the epidemic in England is better than some imagine. There are lots of concerns in the media about a second wave of Covid, and a reported recent uptick in cases. Looking at the data for London we see the following about the number of new cases and about the number of people who are going into hospital:

upload_2020-8-6_17-5-34.png
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

We see a recent rise in people testing positive. The increase in cases has not been accompanied by a similar increase in new hospitalizations. Earlier in the epidemic, the cases were known about primarily because people were turning up in hospitals with symptoms and testing positive for the virus in that setting. Nowadays, far more cases are being detected 'in the community' while the numbers of people being admitted into hospital keep trending downwards.

This suggests a few possibilities. I thought earlier on that maybe the lengthening of the day had something to do with it as people get more vitamin D, because of the falling numbers in new cases and the low antibody prevalence. However, the subsequent accelerating spread in the southern United States and other locations suggests that this is likely not the reason.

Another possibility is that London has attained, or is close to attaining, herd immunity. London was hit hard and early by the pandemic and did a poor job of managing the spread of the disease. It may be the case, according to some recent reports, that circulating common cold viruses may confer an immunity to a significant proportion of individuals such that the threshold for getting herd immunity to Covid may be significantly lower than the 60-80% of the population assumed initially.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-exposure-common-cold-coronaviruses-immune.html

Furthermore, it is known that antibodies are not the whole story when it comes to viral immunity or for determining how many people have had the virus. Antibody presence may be undetectable in some people, or may have only a limited window of detectability. Mass antibody testing kits also have reliability issues.

The seroprevalence of Covid-specific antibodies peaked among blood donors in London at around 16% in mid-May:

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https://assets.publishing.service.g...ID19_Surveillance_Report_week_31_FINAL_V2.pdf

If antibody prevalence were the be-all and end-all of Covid immunity, then you would expect a rising susceptibility of Londoners to Covid currently, more large outbreaks and more people going into hospital with the virus. As it is, these things are not happening. It is also known that some people have a primarily T-cell mediated immune response instead of an antibody one, which is much more difficult to detect. It is therefore the case that the true cumulative spread of Covid throughout the population in London is unknown, but certainly higher than the antibody seroprevalence studies would suggest.

What is also the case is that someone can test positive on a RT-PCR test for Covid (the most common testing method) long after they have got over the virus, perhaps months after the initial infection. More tests are being performed in new testing centres, and the criteria for getting a test are being made less strict. These facts could explain the noted rise in positive tests. i.e. The Trumpian explanation of more tests equalling more cases may apply to London (and England more broadly). It would likely also apply to certain places in the US like New York, but not everywhere. As I keep saying, every locality is in its own phase of the Covid epidemic.

There may not be second waves after all. What constitutes a second wave is fairly arbitrary, as the term is ill-defined. But I would take a second wave to be a resurgence of the disease in an area that has already had a severe London- or New York-scale epidemic. I would not consider an area which locked down early before there were many infections, relaxed its lockdown and then saw infections start to climb again to be going through a second wave. It is an interrupted first wave. If someone is bleeding out of an artery and a tourniquet is applied to stem the bleeding, when you relax the tourniquet and bleeding resumes that is not a second wound, it is still the first wound. I have not yet seen evidence of a second wave in any of the badly affected parts of the world. If people who had the virus before start to demonstrably become infected again in an area then that would be a clear sign of a second wave.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
I'm in a rural county of North Carolina, there's an average of 130 people per square mile, less than 40,000 people in this county with a couple towns congregating that population, of that we have had less than 400 confirmed infections and 4 deaths with less than 70 active infections currently...We have fared better than some areas and I'm told about 20 percent of the county has been tested...It seems testing can become redundant at some point because someone could get tested with a negative result one week and the next week get exposed unknowingly and spread it around before realizing since the person will likely think he or she is fine judging by last week's testing results...

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AlienView

Noble
US deaths predicted at nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1

"SEATTLE — A widely cited
University of Washington model predicts U.S. deaths from COVID-19 will reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1.

The forecast of 295,011 deaths is 137,000 more than the roughly 158,000 U.S. deaths reported so far. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model assumes that many states will impose new stay-at-home orders as deaths climb.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention monitors the model along with forecasts from about 30 other modeling groups. Combined, the models predict from 168,000 to 182,000 total COVID-19 deaths by Aug. 22.

US deaths predicted at nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1

Remmber though, as I pointed out earlier, this is based on the assumption that all the Coronaviurs deaths
are related to only the Coronavirus and not other underling health issues which may have contributed.

- Still the statistics do not look good !!!


 

nivek

As Above So Below
Remmber though, as I pointed out earlier, this is based on the assumption that all the Coronaviurs deaths
are related to only the Coronavirus and not other underling health issues which may have contributed.

- Still the statistics do not look good !!!

I think a good percentage of the people who died because of covid19 had underlying health issues but someone could have underlying health issues and not die for another 10 years or 2 years from now then covid19 comes along and destroys them...You're right though the stats don't look good, we could have handled this pandemic a whole lot differently and wiser than we did, I think this pandemic is far from over, the Spanish flu lasted 2 years, and we've barely got past half a year...

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nivek

As Above So Below
Strange...

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Twitter scientist who died of COVID-19 turned out to be a hoax. It only gets weirder from there.


What first seemed to be a tragic story — a professor was forced to work in-person and later died from COVID-19 — now seems to be a strange hoax.

Multiple reports and information uncovered from online sleuths suggest the Twitter account @Sciencing_Bi, who claimed to be a bisexual professor of Native American descent, may have actually been fake. It appears it was the creation of BethAnn McLaughlin, the head of a group called MeTooSTEM, which aims to fight sexual harassment in scientific fields.

In June, the account @Sciencing_Bi claimed on Twitter that her employer, Arizona State University, forced her to deliver lecturers in person in April to some 200 students, which led to her getting the coronavirus. On July 31, McLaughlin announced from her Twitter account, @McLNeuro, the @Sciencing_Bi had died from COVID-19.

But ASU officials said it had no reports of a faculty member dying from the coronavirus and that it never employed a professor matching @Sciencing_Bi's description. The university had also closed its campus in March.

"We have been looking into this for the last 24 hours and cannot verify any connection with the university," ASU spokesperson Katie Paquet told BuzzFeed News. "We have been in touch with several deans and faculty members and no one can identify the account or who might be behind it."

An ASU representative, meanwhile, told Gizmodo that "unfortunately, this appears to be a hoax."

Meanwhile, Twitter suspended both @McLNeuro and @Sciencing_Bi, telling multiple outlets the accounts had violated its "spam and platform manipulation policies." All of the tweets from both accounts are no longer accessible but screenshots of some posts obviously live on.



The account @Sciencing_Bi had apparently tweeted for years about their experiences as an indigenous woman, being LGBTQ in academic circles, and, more recently, their long, drawn-out suffering from COVID-19.

Lots of folks familiar with this particular corner of science Twitter pointed out inconsistencies with @Sciencing_Bi's stories, including (now-inaccessible) instances where they apparently used stock images to accompany apparent real-life experiences.

At the end of June, after claiming her dean had asked her to take a DNA test to prove her ancestry, @Sciencing_Bi asked people to support her by sending donations to McLaughlin’s Venmo account.

McLaughlin has denied she had created @Sciencing_Bi out of whole cloth, but did admit she had access to the account. She claimed to Gizmodo that as far as she knew @Sciencing_Bi had died of COVID-19, a fact she said she gathered via a family contact. McLaughlin reportedly declined to reveal @Sciencing_Bi's actual identity and also said she had met her in real life.

McLaughlin told BuzzFeed News: "I’m not going to dox anyone. Thank you for your interest."

Yet after @Sciencing_Bi's alleged death, McLaughlin seemed to suggest they were in an intimate relationship, tweeting: "Looking at her side of the bed and crying. Just a lot of crying. I literally can do nothing.”



McLaughlin even held a Zoom memorial for @Sciencing_Bi, to which just five people showed up. McLaughlin was the only person who claimed to have met her offline.

This is also not the first instance of controversy surrounding McLaughlin. A March report from Science Magazine detailed that McLaughlin, while heading MeTooSTEM, allegedly "sidelined people of color and bullied volunteers, activists, and fellow leaders."

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Standingstones

Celestial
Get ready for a big spike of Corona virus. The Sturgis SD bike rally starts August 7 and goes for 10 days. The city expects 250,000 bikers to show up! There is no way that you can expect safe procedures to be implemented. I wouldn’t think that many bikers will be wearing masks or be following any sort of rules. Good luck to those who show up.
 

AlienView

Noble
Wearing A Mask Could Be Even More Important Than We Thought

"
A new paper and growing observational evidence suggest that a mask could protect you from developing a serious case of COVID-19 — by cutting down on the amount of virus that takes root in your body.

Katherine Wu reported on that evidence for the New York Times.

Email the show at shortwave@npr.org.

This episode was produced by Brent Baughman, edited by Deb George, and fact-checked by Abby Wendle.
 

AD1184

Celestial
Wearing A Mask Could Be Even More Important Than We Thought

"
A new paper and growing observational evidence suggest that a mask could protect you from developing a serious case of COVID-19 — by cutting down on the amount of virus that takes root in your body.

Katherine Wu reported on that evidence for the New York Times.

Email the show at shortwave@npr.org.

This episode was produced by Brent Baughman, edited by Deb George, and fact-checked by Abby Wendle.
The benefits of wearing a facial covering are manifold: [...]

Any time you are exposed to projected and airborne respiratory droplets, a covering will reduce the number that might reach your mouth/nose. This reduces the amount of virus particles that you are exposed to. Many viruses induce a disease in an infected person that has a strong dependence on the number of virus particles that person was initially exposed to. You get a milder disease the fewer particles you were exposed to.
Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus
(From 1st of April, four months ago)
 

nivek

As Above So Below
US records over 2,000 deaths in 24 hours for first time since May as death toll surpasses 160,000 - and Dr Fauci warns there is 'trouble ahead' for cities like Boston, Chicago and Detroit if they don't act now to stop COVID-19 spread

(Excerpt)

The US added 2,060 deaths in 24 hours as of 8.30pm on Thursday, AFP reported, citing the Johns Hopkins University live tally. The last time the US recorded more than 2,000 deaths in a 24-hour period was on May 7.

Deaths have increased by 10,000 in just nine days. On a per-capita basis, the US now ranks 10th highest in the world for both cases and deaths.

Coronavirus deaths are still rising in 23 states, while cases are increasing in 20 states, according to a Reuters analysis comparing data from the past two weeks to the previous two.

the_US.jpg

positive_cases_acro.jpg
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Norwegians are told to avoid ALL travel abroad as coronavirus surges

Norwegians have been told to avoid all unnecessary travel abroad amid an 'alarming' surge in cases in the country.

The country's health minister, Bent Hoie, announced the tightening of rules, adding that it applied regardless of Covid-19 infection levels in their intended destination. There have been 263 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the last week in Norway with a significant proportion of them coming from abroad, according to MSN. 'When Norwegians travel abroad, the risk of infections increases, regardless of what country they visit,' Hoie told reporters today. 'We are therefore recommending that Norwegian citizens don’t travel abroad unnecessarily.'

The Scandinavian country also confirmed anyone arriving of the Czech Republic, France, Monaco and Switzerland from August 8 must undergo a 10-day home quarantine period, in addition the previously announced 'red' countries. There have also been some changes to the quarantine-free travel from selected regions of neighbouring Sweden.

Earlier in the week, cruise ships were banned from Norwegian waters for 14 days following outbreaks on two voyages of the Hurtigruten vessel, MS Roald Amundsen. The ship made trips around the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, with boarding and disembarking in Tromsø. The first voyage between 17-24 July had 209 guests, and the second from 24 to 31 July had 178.

Despite the concerns for air travellers and cruise ships, the Norwegian Institute for Public Health (FHI) and the government are yet to enforce face covering on public transport. It is believed they are considering putting in place the restriction during rush hour in big cities such as Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim and Stavanger.

'We recommend that employers arrange for half of their employees to have a home office, where this is possible. Reducing the number of people traveling by public transit during rush hour is important,' said Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg. Health minister Hoie said that further guidance on the use of face coverings would be issued by August 14.

There is also a new nationwide ban on serving alcohol after midnight in bars and pubs, with a maximum limit of 200 people at events set to remain. Norway has had 9,468 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 256 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

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AlienView

Noble
US records over 2,000 deaths in 24 hours for first time since May as death toll surpasses 160,000 - and Dr Fauci warns there is 'trouble ahead' for cities like Boston, Chicago and Detroit if they don't act now to stop COVID-19 spread

(Excerpt)

The US added 2,060 deaths in 24 hours as of 8.30pm on Thursday, AFP reported, citing the Johns Hopkins University live tally. The last time the US recorded more than 2,000 deaths in a 24-hour period was on May 7.

Deaths have increased by 10,000 in just nine days. On a per-capita basis, the US now ranks 10th highest in the world for both cases and deaths.

Coronavirus deaths are still rising in 23 states, while cases are increasing in 20 states, according to a Reuters analysis comparing data from the past two weeks to the previous two.

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View attachment 10450
Nivek since you do an extensive amount of research, can you find who {age, type of medical pre-existing condtion, ethnic identity/race, economic class, etc.} that is most vulnerable {dying at the higher rates} than say less vulnerable younger people and kids ???

We already know right from the beginning that older people and people with pre-existing conditions are more
vulnerable and that supposedly there are higher rates among African Americans and Latinos.

Anything more definitive on who is actually getting it and who is dying from it ???
 

AD1184

Celestial
Nivek since you do an extensive amount of research, can you find who {age, type of medical pre-existing condtion, ethnic identity/race, economic class, etc.} that is most vulnerable {dying at the higher rates} than say less vulnerable younger people and kids ???

We already know right from the beginning that older people and people with pre-existing conditions are more
vulnerable and that supposedly there are higher rates among African Americans and Latinos.

Anything more definitive on who is actually getting it and who is dying from it ???


Risk factors for mortality in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies
Risk factors for mortality among COVID-19 patients - ScienceDirect
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
Comorbidity and its impact on 1590 patients with COVID-19 in China: a nationwide analysis
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Child Hospitalization Rates Have Risen, CDC Says

Children with Covid-19 are being hospitalized more frequently, and about a third of those hospitalized in a subset of a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study needed intensive care.

Hospitalization rates of children increased steadily between March and July, with higher rates among Black and Latino kids than others, according to the study.

The CDC analyzed data for 576 pediatric hospitalization cases in 14 states, finding that about eight children are hospitalized for every 100,000 infected, compared with more than 164 adults per 100,000.

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nivek

As Above So Below
I'm in a rural county of North Carolina, there's an average of 130 people per square mile, less than 40,000 people in this county with a couple towns congregating that population, of that we have had less than 400 confirmed infections and 4 deaths with less than 70 active infections currently...We have fared better than some areas and I'm told about 20 percent of the county has been tested...It seems testing can become redundant at some point because someone could get tested with a negative result one week and the next week get exposed unknowingly and spread it around before realizing since the person will likely think he or she is fine judging by last week's testing results...

...

Two more deaths in the county I reside in, which is kind of a spike for us, it's been a while since someone died from Coronavirus in this area...I've been staying at home most of the time these days, only going out when I have to...

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I think a good percentage of the people who died because of covid19 had underlying health issues but someone could have underlying health issues and not die for another 10 years or 2 years from now then covid19 comes along and destroys them...You're right though the stats don't look good, we could have handled this pandemic a whole lot differently and wiser than we did, I think this pandemic is far from over, the Spanish flu lasted 2 years, and we've barely got past half a year...
...
I agree with you nivek - it's important to note that a huge percentage of people with underlying conditions (diabetes, hypertension, CVD) live happy and productive lives for decades with those conditions. It's no less of a tragedy that somebody dies from this virus if they had an underlying condition - having an underlying condition doesn't mean that you're a terminal patient on their last legs; it just means that your health is somewhat less resilient than that of perfectly healthy people, and therefore you're more likely to perish when the virus hits you hard as it does in some patients.

This nightmare could actually drag on much longer than the Spanish flu pandemic - that outbreak spread so far and wide that about 70% of the world's population got infected in the first two years, which produced a herd immunity effect. We're six months into this hellstorm and less than 2% of the population has tested positive so far. So at this rate, this could drag on for another 20 years. Unless they devise an effective vaccine.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Old Jerry works maybe 50' from me. Man is over 80 and is still humping 5 gallon buckets of paint with ease up and down ladders. Sick as hell. Got all the symptoms. Waiting on the test result.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Old Jerry works maybe 50' from me. Man is over 80 and is still humping 5 gallon buckets of paint with ease up and down ladders. Sick as hell. Got all the symptoms. Waiting on the test result.

That's really messed up, totally irresponsible IMO, he should have stayed at home, fraking common sense, even if it isn't covid19, he's showing symptoms and should at least stay home until the test results come back...

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pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
That's really messed up, totally irresponsible IMO, he should have stayed at home, fraking common sense, even if it isn't covid19, he's showing symptoms and should at least stay home until the test results come back...

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He is being responsible, I wasn't being clear. As soon as he felt sick he stayed out, isolated and went for testing. I heard about it yesterday afternoon because he called in. There have been two other people that I know who work there since April who are confirmed to have had it, got over it, got tested and came back. One was about 40, the other 67. Probably more I don't know about.

I'll find out Tuesday what the story with this poor guy is unless somebody calls me before then.

All FT employees over 65 were given 8 paid weeks to do with as they pleased. A sensible few left and didn't come back. He chose to go out just a couple of weeks. Says it's financial pressure. I have had several conversations with him and with the 79 year old man I regularly work alongside. Short answer - they're just in too deep and have too little going on elsewhere. Giving up their jobs is more of an existential threat than the virus, to them anyway.

That issue is a separate conversation - those who devote themselves to something at the expense of all else. Easy to fall into that trap sometimes and age is only a part of it.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
He is being responsible, I wasn't being clear. As soon as he felt sick he stayed out, isolated and went for testing. I heard about it yesterday afternoon because he called in. There have been two other people that I know who work there since April who are confirmed to have had it, got over it, got tested and came back. One was about 40, the other 67. Probably more I don't know about.

I'll find out Tuesday what the story with this poor guy is unless somebody calls me before then.

Thanks, hopefully it doesn't hit him hard if he does have covid19, age doesn't seem to matter as much, many older folk are making it thru, although some suffer horribly from it...

All FT employees over 65 were given 8 paid weeks to do with as they pleased. A sensible few left and didn't come back. He chose to go out just a couple of weeks. Says it's financial pressure. I have had several conversations with him and with the 79 year old man I regularly work alongside. Short answer - they're just in too deep and have too little going on elsewhere. Giving up their jobs is more of an existential threat than the virus, to them anyway.

I do wonder sometimes if some of the financial hardships people endure are really due to living outside one's financial means...Probably the case for some but not everyone who's suffering financial strains...

That issue is a separate conversation - those who devote themselves to something at the expense of all else. Easy to fall into that trap sometimes and age is only a part of it.

This is a great topic for conversation, you should start a thread...:D

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Even Asymptomatic People Carry the Coronavirus in High Amounts

A study out of South Korea found that people who are infected with the coronavirus but don’t have symptoms have just as much of the virus in their bodies as people with symptoms. That doesn’t fully answer the question of how easily they transmit the disease, but it is alarming for people trying to track the virus’s spread.

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