Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek

As Above So Below
Tour de France warns teams: two Covid-19 positives and you're out

Tour de France organisers have told teams that they will boot them off the race if they return two positive Covid-19 tests in seven days, official sources said on Friday.

The measure concerns not only the riders, but other team staff inside the "race bubble".

The 2020 Tour will start on August 29 in Nice. There are 28 teams each with eight riders and a total of 25 to 30 people in the bubble.

Tour organisers and a team that had received the health protocols confirmed the measures on Friday.

All the riders must undergo two PCR nasal tests in the days leading up to the start of the Tour.

A team can replace a rider who tests positive before the race.

During the race anyone who tests positive would have to leave the race bubble. Riders would therefore automatically withdraw from the race.

A daily check-up will be carried out within the teams and each doctor will have to report any problems to the race Covid unit.

All those in the race bubble will have to undergo another PCR swab test on the two rest days - September 7 and 14.

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AD1184

Celestial
The mystery of the western European 'surge' (which means more daily SARS-Cov-2 positive tests, in absolute terms) continues. France and Spain have both been removed from the 'air bridge' of countries from which travellers entering Britain may do so without quarantine. The recent daily case numbers for the two countries look like this:
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However, the daily death rates attributed to Covid look like this:

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Both 'surges' are apparently so severe that they are rivalling the original peak in the spring in terms of the number of new cases each day, but there is barely a blip in terms of the number of new deaths reported. Spain shows a pair of large single-day spikes, but this looks like data from delayed reporting due to re-examination of earlier deaths, rather than new deaths as a result of the ongoing case 'surge'. given the fact that they are not against a background of a rising death count in either case.

I know of no good sources for other useful data series relating to the two countries, like the number of tests performed each day, and the number of new hospitalizations of patients with Covid-19 (or, should I say, with positive SARS-CoV-2 tests).

The situation is similar in Britain, although the numbers of new cases are not as high, nor have they grown as quickly as in these two countries. I also know where to look for national and regional data on new hospital admissions for Covid patients and can see that as well as there being hardly anyone dying of Covid in this country at present, our hospitals are also dealing with an extremely small caseload, and have speculated whether this apparently small number may itself be an exaggeration. Now the Mail has taken notice of it:

Cases are going up... but hospitals are EMPTY because spike in infections is down to younger people | Daily Mail Online


Some speculations and explanations are offered. One I have seen to explain away the lack of a clinical manifestation of the Covid-19 case 'surge' in other European countries: the disease is spreading in populations of young people, who have much lower hospitalization rates than the elderly, although I do not find this satisfactory, as it is not obvious why the virus should be sparing the elderly now. It is also suggested that the virus is now less deadly in Europe due to a genetic change, although this is not supported by genetic evidence. A behavioural reason is suggested, with social distancing and mask usage meaning that people are on average getting smaller infective doses, and so less severe disease, but there are also plenty of encounters happening without social distancing rules, with many people ignoring them, but only falling numbers of deaths.

It is also suggested that perhaps those who are most vulnerable have already died. However, if there are ongoing cases, then there is still susceptibility of the population. It is thought that there is a long-term immunity from Covid, so those among the susceptible population who are catching it could not have had it before now. It would seem statistically improbable that the susceptible population could have already been cleared of the most vulnerable, who are likely to die of the disease. Unless, you could fall susceptible to Covid again on a short time span, and those in the susceptible population have by-and-large already had Covid. However, this is not in accordance with what has been reported in scientific and medical circles about what is known of Covid immunity (i.e. that there broadly is a long-lasting immunity to Covid, and people are not catching the virus for a second time).

What I think should be done is that a cohort of volunteers should be recruited from those testing positive and have them undergo weekly testing to see how for how long they test positive. People are usually tested once and, if positive, are required to isolate for two weeks, and no follow up testing is performed. In settings where follow-up testing has been performed, people have tested positive for up to 55 days, and it could be even more, as there does not seem to be a wealth of research in this area:

Experts question use of repeated Covid-19 tests after a patient recovers

The patient in the above story may have tested positive for even longer than this, it is not known. The rules in her circumstance called for two negative consecutive tests. But what if she tested positive in one in every three tests, say, for a longer period if these tests had been performed? Or one in five tests over an even longer period?

At the population level, follow-up testing is not performed. In those limited circumstances where it is performed, it is usually abandoned after two consecutive negative tests. Someone should really perform a study where they keep testing, and keep testing for a period of months, and not give up after the first consecutive pair of negative tests. The volunteers could be paid for this inconvenience. Although it is difficult to know for sure when someone contracted the virus after testing positive, as the RT-PCR test does not tell you this information. So even if you were to recruit volunteers into this hypothetical study, you have no idea for how long they could have been able to test positive, you only know when their first positive test was (which will in most people be their first test).

Currently we have large numbers of people in Europe who were exposed to Covid in the spring at the peak of the epidemic and were told not to trouble the health systems to ask for a test unless their symptoms were so severe that they had to be admitted into hospital. Now there is all this testing capacity (which is still growing) with not many people left requiring hospitalization, and it is now turning increasingly to community testing, i.e. testing of those younger and less vulnerable people who were told to deal with the illness on their own at home. We know also that the virus can be detected by an RT-PCR test for months after the infection.

I saw a report that said that three quarters of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in France currently are asymptomatic. This could be post-symptomatic in many cases. The possible symptoms for Covid-19 are so vague, being the same in many cases for a multitude of other endemic viral and bacterial infectious diseases, that the presence of symptoms and a corresponding positive SARS-Cov-2 test are not in themselves enough evidence to diagnose Covid-19 at this point in countries like France, Spain, or the United Kingdom. Someone could have caught SARS-CoV-2 months ago, got over it, still be shedding enough viral fragments to have a good chance of testing positive with an RT-PCR test, and have in the meantime caught another cold or flu virus, or similar, and have symptoms from that (or even from hay fever).
 
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nivek

As Above So Below
A behavioural reason is suggested, with social distancing and mask usage meaning that people are on average getting smaller infective doses, and so less severe disease, but there are also plenty of encounters happening without social distancing rules, with many people ignoring them, but only falling numbers of deaths.

This is what I think is happening, smaller doses, minimal exposure with social distancing and masks is helping in keeping people out of the hospital, however there's a certain percentage of people not wearing masks and parties being thrown without masks and social distancing, etc, etc...These people not complying will undoubtedly expose some people to a higher dose at some point in their interactions with others and cause hospitalizations to randomly spike...

It is also suggested that perhaps those who are most vulnerable have already died.

I don't accept that for a minute, with only 23 million confirmed cases out of close to 8 billion people in the world, it's not logical to assume that within those 23 million the most vulnerable have died and assume the other 7 billion 977 million people who haven't been exposed to the virus will not die from it...Of course there's likely a much higher number of cases and deaths than reported...

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nivek

As Above So Below
France numbers continue to climb as well as in Spain, I'm noticing the death count rising slightly in France as well...How is it again the US has the virus under control Mr. President?...

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AlienView

Noble
Can COVID-19 be passed via currencies (dollar bills, coins, checks, etc.)?

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Yes, SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes the disease COVID-19) can survive on surfaces like dollar bills. How long the virus survives is dependent on the surface itself as well as environmental conditions. At most, the virus will persist for 2-3 days under optimal conditions.

Preliminary findings suggest that COVID-19 may persist on money for a longer period of time than cardboard/paper-based products because cash in the United States is composed of 25% linen and 75% cotton, not paper.

Current research has shown that cash may be a potential vector of transmissible diseases, such as bacteria and viruses; however, no research has been done on COVID-19 virus specifically. For this reason, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends thoroughly washing hands after handling money and moving towards cashless payment methods when possible.

Can COVID-19 be passed via currencies (dollar bills, coins, checks, etc.)? | FAQ
 

pepe

Celestial
The deaths are low even though we have taken measures, they should be higher and I think it is a good sign that the virus is weakening and not waiting for its moment whilst changing its jacket. It doesn't target age groups or harm minorities more because of a ethnic difference.

A team was actually created to study why ethnic minorities were dying more so than the more wealthy.

Why don't we just see it and say it how it is anymore.

Maybe one day we will have to because of a collateral damage scenario.

Anyhow, hope you are all well here and ready for the flu season to put the ghost of Jesus in you.
 
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pepe

Celestial
Can COVID-19 be passed via currencies (dollar bills, coins, checks, etc.)?

"
Yes, SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes the disease COVID-19) can survive on surfaces like dollar bills. How long the virus survives is dependent on the surface itself as well as environmental conditions. At most, the virus will persist for 2-3 days under optimal conditions.

Preliminary findings suggest that COVID-19 may persist on money for a longer period of time than cardboard/paper-based products because cash in the United States is composed of 25% linen and 75% cotton, not paper.

Current research has shown that cash may be a potential vector of transmissible diseases, such as bacteria and viruses; however, no research has been done on COVID-19 virus specifically. For this reason, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends thoroughly washing hands after handling money and moving towards cashless payment methods when possible.

Can COVID-19 be passed via currencies (dollar bills, coins, checks, etc.)? | FAQ

72 hours on hard surfaces so yes this isn't a suprise but when the high street and night time economies have been so effected it's no suprise when funnelled toward having things delivered ( the one thing keeping developed economies nearer to ticking over) they say there is no evidence the virus can be passed on by parcels. If they had to come clean it would be near curtains for the flow.

Nice huh ?
 

nivek

As Above So Below
The deaths are low even though we have taken measures, they should be higher and I think it is a good sign that the virus is weakening and not waiting for its moment whilst changing its jacket.

I think that's because of what @AD1184 suggested, that social distancing and mask wearing is minimizing the amount of exposure to the virus thereby minimizing the severity of the illness in many...

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AD1184

Celestial
I think that's because of what @AD1184 suggested, that social distancing and mask wearing is minimizing the amount of exposure to the virus thereby minimizing the severity of the illness in many...
That was not really my contention to explain the current case numbers. That was what was advanced in that Mail article, and in other news outlets to account for what we are seeing in this country and in western Europe.

I was sceptical as to whether there are even case surges at all, and am not convinced until I see a strong argument specifically against the point I made that people can test positive on RT-PCR tests for months after the infection and that these are largely delayed discoveries of past infections.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
....people can test positive on RT-PCR tests for months after the infection and that these are largely delayed discoveries of past infections.

Surely a means to detect how long the virus has remained active within any given individual can be devised so we are not 'recounting' someone who has remained positive for months?...For example, I would think if someone has remained positive for a couple months the virus would spread further in theirs bodies and cause more damage than someone who has been recently tested positive and previously had no virus within their body...
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nivek

As Above So Below
If this tribe is completely isolated, then how did they get infected with covid19?...

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Isolated island tribe in India hit by the coronavirus

Ten members of India’s Great Andamanese tribe have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to local officials. Although six of the 10 have recovered and are quarantining at home, the outbreak raises concerns about the safety of the group and other indigenous people in the remote archipelago. Indian authorities sent a team of health officials to Strait Island on Sunday after six members of the tribe tested positive for the virus. “The team tested 37 samples and four members of the Andamanese tribe were found to be positive. They were admitted in hospital,” Avijit Ray, a senior health officer in charge of disease management in the Andamans, told AFP. The Great Andamanese tribe consists of just over 50 surviving members who live on the tiny Strait Island, where the Indian government is in charge of looking after them. Sanjiv Mittal, a senior government officer for tribal welfare, told AFP that authorities were doing their best to keep all members of the tribe healthy.

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AlienView

Noble
If this tribe is completely isolated, then how did they get infected with covid19?...

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Isolated island tribe in India hit by the coronavirus
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If outsiders got close enough to test them - Then obviously they are not all that isolated!

They should have been listed as "basically isolated' and not completely isolated.

All it would take is one person to acquire the virus from an outsider to begin spreading it around.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
If outsiders got close enough to test them - Then obviously they are not all that isolated!

They should have been listed as "basically isolated' and not completely isolated.

All it would take is one person to acquire the virus from an outsider to begin spreading it around.

Obviously my question was a rhetorical one...They are monitored by the Indian government and its likely there is some form of at least mild contact going on that perhaps very few people knew about...If they were 100% isolated there is no way for the virus to reach them, this news reveals much...

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pepe

Celestial
I think that's because of what @AD1184 suggested, that social distancing and mask wearing is minimizing the amount of exposure to the virus thereby minimizing the severity of the illness in many...

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Well it is a very good point as usual from 1184 but I still think it's losing potency. I can't think of one thing in our atmosphere that isn't weakened by time, oh there is one, time itself but even that won't last forever, that's if it is actually a thing.
 
I still think it's losing potency. I can't think of one thing in our atmosphere that isn't weakened by time
I'm sorry to say that this makes zero sense pepe - some things get weaker in time and other things get stronger in time, and it usually has nothing to do with our atmosphere or time itself. For example, everything alive today on our planet has gotten stronger through time - which is how it now occupies a niche in the ecosystem that was previously filled by another species.

Viruses (and lots of other things) don't get weaker in time. The Spanish flu, for example, swept the globe and was only curbed by herd immunity when >70% of the global population had been infected, and its descendants are still with us. Natural selection actually dictates that more powerful variations of successful organisms tend to dominate in the global ecosystem. So time won't save us. Only effective countermeasures can do that.
 

pepe

Celestial
I'm sorry to say that this makes zero sense pepe - some things get weaker in time and other things get stronger in time, and it usually has nothing to do with our atmosphere or time itself. For example, everything alive today on our planet has gotten stronger through time - which is how it now occupies a niche in the ecosystem that was previously filled by another species.

Viruses (and lots of other things) don't get weaker in time. The Spanish flu, for example, swept the globe and was only curbed by herd immunity when >70% of the global population had been infected, and its descendants are still with us. Natural selection actually dictates that more powerful variations of successful organisms tend to dominate in the global ecosystem. So time won't save us. Only effective countermeasures can do that.

You are right, life itself is becoming stronger but that isn't an actual thing, just like time isn't. viruses are not alive as in the sense we know of. I can't think of a strain that is as prevalent than in its hay day. It comes and it goes is what I have picked up through life and it leaves a milder version as a fixture, I can't see why this should be any different.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
You are right, life itself is becoming stronger but that isn't an actual thing, just like time isn't. viruses are not alive as in the sense we know of. I can't think of a strain that is as prevalent than in its hay day. It comes and it goes is what I have picked up through life and it leaves a milder version as a fixture, I can't see why this should be any different.

If in the near future this coronavirus becomes more like the flu or cold it is something we all can reckon with, we're not there yet and I think we may have another year before things start returning to normal, hope I'm wrong about that and we are able to stop this virus sooner...To be honest if and when a vaccine comes out I will not be getting it, I shall wait a while and see what toll it has on the first guineas if mass inoculation begins...

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pepe

Celestial
If in the near future this coronavirus becomes more like the flu or cold it is something we all can reckon with, we're not there yet and I think we may have another year before things start returning to normal, hope I'm wrong about that and we are able to stop this virus sooner...To be honest if and when a vaccine comes out I will not be getting it, I shall wait a while and see what toll it has on the first guineas if mass inoculation begins...

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This all comes from the hip you understand but surely the first ever flu strain to infect our distant ancestors is still with us and a fair guess could add that it is what we know as the common cold. Probably wiped out a large percentage of them. Today a lemsip does a fair number on it. Our getting immune system updates I'm sure are set for 2 am so not to interfere with our daily business.

My guess is two processes are working in our favour simultaneously.

Feels right to say in ten years time we won't be wearing masks or socially distancing and that comes from the fact we weren't operating like this before covid or long after the Spanish out break. I did see a difference in the death percentage rates and the huge jump when looking at the over eighties, something like 0.6 for the under seventies to 6.9 for the over eighties. Survival of the fittest, the only aspect that brings on the question of viral life but again it acts like no organism, killing what keeps it alive is a huge design fault.
 
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