Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

Xuu

Honorable
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Shame. We were doing pretty well at the start of the month with 0..1 deaths per day... Then the government apparently forgot that it's still around, splurged billions on a test and trace system that doesn't work, and started programs to ram people into one of the most easy to spread areas, restaurants.

Per capita our numbers are nearly as bad as the US. I don't think that's being put on Boris as much as it should.
 

AD1184

Celestial
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Shame. We were doing pretty well at the start of the month with 0..1 deaths per day... Then the government apparently forgot that it's still around, splurged billions on a test and trace system that doesn't work, and started programs to ram people into one of the most easy to spread areas, restaurants.

Per capita our numbers are nearly as bad as the US. I don't think that's being put on Boris as much as it should.
It seems to me also that there are growing reporting delays, as the government's data portal is currently showing a peak for cases by date of specimen around the 19th to the 21st of October, eight to ten days ago, whereas the cases by date of report still seem to be growing. There was a large single day spike on the 21st of October of 26,688 cases, but it is unlikely that this meant they were able to catch up with reporting of specimens taken between the 19th and the 21st, and the excess reported cases on that date were most likely older cases.

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There were also announced to be 9,520 Covid patients in hospital as of the 26th of October. This compares with a peak in the spring of 19,849 on the 12th of April. The recent peak in deaths by date of death is also the 22nd of October, suggesting lengthy reporting delays there, too.

Given this, and how quickly the situation can change, I believe that the situation currently is quite a bit worse than the latest government data suggest. We will know only in a week to ten days how bad the picture is presently, by which time the situation will have changed still further in an uncertain way.
 
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nivek

As Above So Below
Coronavirus mutation spread across Europe

Researchers studying the coronavirus and its genetic mutations revealed in a study a genetic mutation that originated in farmworkers in Spain may have contributed to the second wave in Europe, a report said.

The Financial Times reported scientists are working to determine what role, if any, variant 20A.EU1 could play in disease's transmission or lethality. Scientists are looking at the mutation's possible effect on the virus' “spike protein." The variant was found in cases across the continent, including more than 80 percent in Spain, the paper reported.


The report pointed out the study has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal. Dr. Emma Hodcroft, an evolutionary geneticist at the University of Basel, said there is no evidence the mutation “increases transmission or impacts the clinical outcome,” according to the paper.

A new wave of lockdowns and business closings swept across France, Germany and other places in Europe as surging coronavirus infections there and in the U.S. wipe out months of progress against the scourge on two continents.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “We are deep in the second wave. I think that this year’s Christmas will be a different Christmas.”

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nivek

As Above So Below
This is ALL on China, every death and all the economic ruins brought on by this pandemic...China are the ones who let this virus spread across the world, they could have avoided this pandemic by locking down Wuhan and not allowing anyone to leave that area...China could have been heroes to the world and stopped the coronavirus from spreading across the world but instead tried to cover it up and allowed it to spread...We can blame our politicians or local authorities for not doing this or that, we can blame those covid deniers for continuing to spread the virus through their own ignorance, but in reality China is solely responsible for the mess we are in...

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nivek

As Above So Below
Here's a bit more on this new mutation...

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A new coronavirus variant is seen spreading across Europe, research says

LONDON — A variant of the coronavirus that is believed to have originated in Spain has spread across Europe and now accounts for most of the new cases reported in several countries in the region, according to the findings of a new study.

The research, which is due to published on Thursday and has not been peer reviewed, details how an international team of scientists has closely monitored the coronavirus through its genetic mutations. Each variant of the coronavirus has its own genetic signature, meaning it can be traced back to the place it first emerged.

It says a new variant of the disease, identified as 20A.EU1 by researchers from Switzerland and Spain, was first observed in Spain in June. The new variant has been recorded in Spain at frequencies of above 40% since July, the study said.

Elsewhere, the new variant of the coronavirus has increased from “very low” values prior to July 15 to 40% to 70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the U.K. in September. It was also found to be prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France.

Researchers of the study said they had no direct evidence to suggest the new variant of the virus spreads faster than other mutations, despite the rise in frequency across multiple countries.

It also said there was currently no data to assess the severity of the disease, and while 20A.EU1 was dominant in some countries, it had not taken over everywhere and diverse variants of the coronavirus “continue to circulate across Europe.”

The authors of the study comprised of researchers from the University of Basel, the Biomedicine Institute of Valencia, and the University of Valencia, among others.

What are the implications?

The findings of the study indicate that people returning from vacations in Spain may have played a role in spreading the new variant of the virus across Europe. It also raises questions about whether a recent upsurge in the number of new reported Covid-19 infections across the region could have been capped by stricter travel measures and improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

“It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries,” the study said.

A wave of new coronavirus cases in Europe has prompted some countries to impose fresh lockdown measures as winter looms. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday announced a “light lockdown,” with bars, restaurants, gyms, cinemas and theaters to close from next week.

In a similar move, French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed a second nationwide lockdown from Friday, with only schools and factories to remain open — in contrast to March, when these were also shut. Europe has recorded almost 10 million cases of the coronavirus, according to the WHO, with 273,678 related deaths.


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This is ALL on China, every death and all the economic ruins brought on by this pandemic...China are the ones who let this virus spread across the world, they could have avoided this pandemic by locking down Wuhan and not allowing anyone to leave that area...China could have been heroes to the world and stopped the coronavirus from spreading across the world but instead tried to cover it up and allowed it to spread...We can blame our politicians or local authorities for not doing this or that, we can blame those covid deniers for continuing to spread the virus through their own ignorance, but in reality China is solely responsible for the mess we are in...

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Actually, I translated an alien message and they tell us that two sides were involved, on in Wuhan itself and the other in the States very probably. It was apparently for greed, and one of them is going to rat out the other one very soon.
 

Xuu

Honorable
On a virus which has up to a 2 week incubation period, I think it's silly to blame a single country.
By the time it was discovered as something novel and not just the flu (given how they are similar for the majority of cases), it will have already spread around the planet.

This isn't really a situation where it was clear the day it emerged and China just ignored it. Wuhan is larger than New York in population. Imagine a disease with a two-week incubation period emerged in New York - is it reasonable to start grandstanding that New York should have stopped it when New York is a massive tourist destination?
 

nivek

As Above So Below
China knew of the dangers of those wet markets and the risks, and we do not know if China is telling us the whole truth about the virus, there should have been full transparency and openness from the start...Unless it was released intentionally or accidentally from a virus lab, then they had no idea how deadly it could be to large populations...We really got lucky IMO, this pandemic could have been a whole lot worse...

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nivek

As Above So Below
People really shouldn't be traveling for the time being...

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Two Americans in northern Ontario community charged with breaking Quarantine Act

Two people from Pennsylvania are facing fines of $1,000 after they failed to self-quarantine after entering Canada on Oct. 26.

The pair, 47 and 48 years old, were in Chisholm Township, just southeast of North Bay. Police received a complaint Oct. 28 and began an investigation. Three other people were not fined, but were "educated by police."

"A family entered into Canada by land on Oct. 26 from the United States," police said in a news release Thursday. "During the investigation, officers discovered that they were not abiding by the mandatory two-week quarantine upon entering Canada."

The two Americans are charged with failing to comply with conditions upon entering Canada, under section 58 of the Quarantine Act. They will have to pay costs and surcharges in addition to the $1,000 fine.

Staff Sgt. Bill McMullen, detachment commander of North Bay OPP, said in the news release that when individuals enter Canada from another country, they are ordered to quarantine for 14 days. A plan outlining the quarantine is first established with Canada Border Services.

"The OPP will support this process by conducting compliance checks," the release said. "Individuals are reminded that while under quarantine order, there is no exception to leave the quarantine residence until the 14 days are complete. Any goods and services must be delivered to the location of quarantine during the 14 days if required."

The legislation is in place to slow the spread of COVID-19, police said, and protect the public by mitigating risk of exposure.


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nivek

As Above So Below
So it looks like the US will be hitting over 100,000 cases per day soon enough...ugh

These are yesterday's numbers...

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nivek

As Above So Below
The US hit over 100,000 new cases today and 36 states now have a 1000 or more new cases, not looking good at all...


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nivek

As Above So Below
I should add that Texas has been manipulating their covid case numbers recently by only counting cases that require hospitalization towards the official totals...Its likely they have double or triple the count they report...Other states may be doing the same thing...

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AD1184

Celestial
On a virus which has up to a 2 week incubation period, I think it's silly to blame a single country.
By the time it was discovered as something novel and not just the flu (given how they are similar for the majority of cases), it will have already spread around the planet.

This isn't really a situation where it was clear the day it emerged and China just ignored it. Wuhan is larger than New York in population. Imagine a disease with a two-week incubation period emerged in New York - is it reasonable to start grandstanding that New York should have stopped it when New York is a massive tourist destination?
There are some things we know about what the Chinese knew, and when they knew it, which suggest that they could have acted more swiftly and possibly eradicated the coronavirus before it took hold around the world. They also exerted pressure on countries around the world to continue to accept travellers from China, when many were implementing restrictions, and when others were contemplating them, and when it would have been prudent for China not to be seeding the world with coronavirus cases at that time by restricting outward travel from China. Since then they have applied absolute restrictions on the entry of travellers into China without quarantine, when they became aware of the problem of the 'backflow' of infected travellers trying to enter, or re-enter, China.

It has also not been proven to my satisfaction that this is not a bat coronavirus that was accidentally let out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China's premier virology centre, and one of two biosafety level-4 facilities in China. A part of the work undertaken at the institute focuses on the study of bat coronaviruses (and also gain of function research on such viruses, thanks in part to funding by the US National Institutes of Health), and it just so happens to be in the city where the first outbreak appeared.

Almost all the governments of the world and the WHO made mistakes also, and many of them still continue to do so. Very few governments outside of east Asia were willing to be pro-active and were only responding to events. With this virus, you do not have time to react to it, because if you are reacting it is already too late. Few governments had the courage to willingly take the actions that they would later be forced to take anyway, and if they had done earlier, those actions would have been more effective.

The British government was working to a pandemic response plan, revised over decades, that was not fit for purpose (and was known not to be fit for purpose, even for the target disease), being for an influenza, rather than a SARS-like illness (after the WHO requested that member nations prepare pandemic response plans both for influenza and for SARS in the mid-2000s).
 

Xuu

Honorable
There are some things we know about what the Chinese knew, and when they knew it, which suggest that they could have acted more swiftly and possibly eradicated the coronavirus before it took hold around the world. They also exerted pressure on countries around the world to continue to accept travellers from China, when many were implementing restrictions, and when others were contemplating them, and when it would have been prudent for China not to be seeding the world with coronavirus cases at that time by restricting outward travel from China. Since then they have applied absolute restrictions on the entry of travellers into China without quarantine, when they became aware of the problem of the 'backflow' of infected travellers trying to enter, or re-enter, China.

It has also not been proven to my satisfaction that this is not a bat coronavirus that was accidentally let out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China's premier virology centre, and one of two biosafety level-4 facilities in China. A part of the work undertaken at the institute focuses on the study of bat coronaviruses (and also gain of function research on such viruses, thanks in part to funding by the US National Institutes of Health), and it just so happens to be in the city where the first outbreak appeared.

What are these things that are known though? I just don't see how it's possible to contain the spread of a disease which has both a huge infectivity period period, and potentially long incubation, when it takes place in a very populated area. Not without time travel at least. By the time the virus was known as novel, it had already left the country.

The main approaches to solving seem to be:
1) Lockdowns until it is locally eradicated
2) Closing the borders. All must quarantine on arrival until proven to the people do not have it. This helped stopped the plague and some cities were relatively unaffected even back then as a result.
3) Ease local lock down, do not ease traveller lock down until a vaccine has been mass distributed.

This harsh initial short lockdown and long term traveller lockdown would have prevented spread without destroying the economy.


This seems to have worked for Wuhan which had a very harsh lock down at first with people being forcibly sealed into their homes, with a recent study showing low levels of antibodies in the gen pop.
Also worked for New Zealand with a very low level of infection, thanks to taking traveller lock downs seriously.

Closing to a single country does fuck all when it's already left that country. Obviously, viruses don't work like a polluting factory outputting in one direction, once it enters a country, that country becomes a generator for new cases.

The virus lab theory is silly imo. It's unfalsifiable based on scary buzz words. Either way, it doesn't excuse that it's our own Governments who've done a piss poor job, as proven by other countries who haven't.
 

AD1184

Celestial
What are these things that are known though? I just don't see how it's possible to contain the spread of a disease which has both a huge infectivity period period, and potentially long incubation, when it takes place in a very populated area. Not without time travel at least. By the time the virus was known as novel, it had already left the country.

The main approaches to solving seem to be:
1) Lockdowns until it is locally eradicated
2) Closing the borders. All must quarantine on arrival until proven to the people do not have it. This helped stopped the plague and some cities were relatively unaffected even back then as a result.
3) Ease local lock down, do not ease traveller lock down until a vaccine has been mass distributed.

This harsh initial short lockdown and long term traveller lockdown would have prevented spread without destroying the economy.


This seems to have worked for Wuhan which had a very harsh lock down at first with people being forcibly sealed into their homes, with a recent study showing low levels of antibodies in the gen pop.
Also worked for New Zealand with a very low level of infection, thanks to taking traveller lock downs seriously.

Closing to a single country does fuck all when it's already left that country. Obviously, viruses don't work like a polluting factory outputting in one direction, once it enters a country, that country becomes a generator for new cases.

The virus lab theory is silly imo. It's unfalsifiable based on scary buzz words. Either way, it doesn't excuse that it's our own Governments who've done a piss poor job, as proven by other countries who haven't.
They were silencing whistleblowers when they knew there was an outbreak of a dangerous respiratory disease and misleading the public about the communicability of the virus causing it. The city authorities in Wuhan allowed a large feast attended by an estimated 40,000 families to take place on the 18th of January. A study estimates that they could have reduced the number of infections in China by 66%, 86%, or 95% if they had acted one week, two weeks, or three weeks sooner, and this would likely also have reduced the number of outbreaks seeded around the world by travellers from Hubei province.

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China | Nature

New Zealand blocked entry to the country for travellers originating from China, or who had been in the country in the past fourteen days, on the 3rd of February. It did not announce a quarantine for all travellers into the country until the 16th of March, and did not go into full lockdown until the 26th of March.

What do you mean that the lab theory is based on scary buzz words? It is based on the fact that the WIV is in Wuhan, where they work with bat coronaviruses, and that biosafety level-4 labs do not provide perfect protection for the local area from the pathogens that they contain. If the lab-origin hypothesis is unfalsifiable, it is because of the closed nature of Chinese society. After the 2007 foot and mouth outbreak in southern England in 2007, an investigation by the HSE found the likely source of the outbreak to be from effluent discharged from a broken pipe and emanating from one of two laboratories (both considered biosafety level-4) in Pirbright, Surrey. Britain has a society where such a finding can be made public, China does not.
 

Xuu

Honorable
They were silencing whistleblowers when they knew there was an outbreak of a dangerous respiratory disease and misleading the public about the communicability of the virus causing it. The city authorities in Wuhan allowed a large feast attended by an estimated 40,000 families to take place on the 18th of January. A study estimates that they could have reduced the number of infections in China by 66%, 86%, or 95% if they had acted one week, two weeks, or three weeks sooner, and this would likely also have reduced the number of outbreaks seeded around the world by travellers from Hubei province.

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China | Nature

New Zealand blocked entry to the country for travellers originating from China, or who had been in the country in the past fourteen days, on the 3rd of February. It did not announce a quarantine for all travellers into the country until the 16th of March, and did not go into full lockdown until the 26th of March.

Those figures on China acting early are in relation to preventing local infection levels - in the area where they apply the lockdown. Those figures do not apply to the global spread rates for two very obvious reasons: the virus emerged in November, and it has left the country before being known as a threat.
It was not until the 27th December that the authorities were notified meaning for up to 2 months the virus had been spreading and almost definitely had left Wuhan. Again, the time line you're proposing hinges on an impossible level of foresight.
Chinese scientists had not even confirmed human-to-human transmission until the 20th Jan, and it's irrational to bolt people into buildings based on suspicion.
As we've seen from the people in our own country, a large amount people will ignore lockdown orders the second it interferes with their plans. Now imagine those people are not even aware of the new virus.

On the 20th human to human transmission was confirmed.
Three days later, the measures they developed after SARS was activated, putting Wuhan in lockdown. That's a turnaround time of 26 days from first discovering the virus to:
1) Closing the origin site
2) Publicly releasing the genome and that its of the SARS family.
3) Shutting people in.

It was in the 14th, 17 days into the timeline that front line hospitals suspected human-to-human transmission due to the number of cases. It had not yet been objectively confirmed. It had also entered Thailand and the US by then.

It's also likely China was suffering from a severity bias. When it first became aware of the disease, it was due to 27 cases of pnemuemonia, 7 of which being critical cases. That indicated a severity in line with MERS (R0 0.5) and Sars (R0 0.2-1), which are damaging enough that large scale spread of it is difficult. It wasn't until later it was discovered that all of the more minor cases were also the same disease.


China does horrible things. But blaming the shit handling of the Virus by the UK and US governments on them is daft. By the time the first case arrived here preventing travel from China was already too late; and we don't even know for sure when the first case arrives, only the first severe case as the UK figures for cases also suffer from a severity bias for a long time.
 
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nivek

As Above So Below
blaming the shit handling of the Virus by the UK and US governments on them is daft.

Totally agree, and I don't think anyone here was blaming China for our handling of the virus, however I am blaming China for their handling of the virus...It is China's fault we are dealing with a pandemic, if the virus started in Kansas and spread across the world it would have been America's fault but it didn't...

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Xuu

Honorable
Totally agree, and I don't think anyone here was blaming China for our handling of the virus, however I am blaming China for their handling of the virus...It is China's fault we are dealing with a pandemic, if the virus started in Kansas and spread across the world it would have been America's fault but it didn't...

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I would've blamed America's poor food standards for it, just like it's rightful to blame China's atrocious food standards and the mere existence of wet markets. That's true, there's no way that should be a thing and you think they'd have learnt nothing good comes of it.
Can't blame the country for a disease like this leaving once it has emerged though.

But I do see a lot of politicians deflect to China rather than address their own failings. Trump is a prime example, throwing out the "1 million deaths if I didn't close to China" every time he's questioned about what he plans to do. That's not true and isn't how it works as the virus was already there.
 
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