August
Metanoia
Germany goes into hard lockdown from today.
Merkel Seeks to Regain Grip on Virus With Hard Holiday Lockdown (msn.com)
Merkel Seeks to Regain Grip on Virus With Hard Holiday Lockdown (msn.com)
nivek
As Above So Below
No explanation is needed, it should be obvious, as I mentioned early in this thread back in the springtime, even the new cases per day does not reflect that particular day because it takes at least 3 to 5 days for test results to come back...Its impossible to report same day statistics during this pandemic, however when those reported numbers exponentially increase and stay increased its also obvious of the virus spread and deaths as a result of such spread...Again we are seeing a past window and as the rate grows we should expect the reality to be worse than what was reported for any given day, as the rate decreases in those reports the opposite can be assumed...
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AD1184
Celestial
All right. You said after my post that there were "two days last week of deaths over 3000 in the US". After this you then posted a comic which claimed that more than 3,000 people were dying per day in the US. Neither of which gave any indication that you knew the real value was lower than this.
The second derivative of both the number of new deaths and the number of news cases in the US are both negative. The expected post-Thanksgiving surge appears not to have materialized after more than two weeks. Unless something else changes, it doesn't look at this point like the national death rate in the US is going to rise much above its current value which is around 2,500 deaths per day. Which is not a figure to be proud of, but is on a par with European countries and the UK, when adjusted on a per-capita basis. It is much Below Italy's current rate of death.
nivek
As Above So Below
Sigh, since you desire to pick my posts apart here we go...There was no desire at that moment to give you any indication that I was WELL aware the real value was lower, when I posted that I was just giving you my point of reference in that moment back a week ago when I wrote that post...In other words I was not pointing at the average I was pointing at a spike, which should have been obvious to you, apparently not because you are whingeing about it...
Apologies for not dotting every I crossing every T sometimes I do not have the time in the moment to write out a long lengthy post explaining every minute detail what I'm trying to convey, again should be obvious...Please let me know next time you're expecting a peer reviewed paper instead of personal comments, I will try to accommodate you if time permits...
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nivek
As Above So Below
Judging or assuming the totality of someone's knowledge or understanding by a few forum posts is very shortsighted, that's where questions and discussion comes in to play...If something seems left out ask about it instead of making judgement or assumptions, which the latter usually ends up making an arse of us both...That happens on social media more times than nought...
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nivek
As Above So Below
@AD1184 Apologies for my attitude and snappyness, it isn't anything you've said, weighing on my mind is something a close friend has been dealing with recently which has really troubled me lately and I want to help him but there's nothing I can do, I've realized its affecting me more than I thought...
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Spaceman spiff
Noble
Whats funny in my country is that last spring when we had the first wave we pretty much shut down the country. Now that we have the 2nd wave which is at least twice as spread out, there hasnt been that much done really in comparison.
And just read, its gonna rain, so black christmas in the south, with little to nil chance of snow. What a perfect way to end this damn miserable year.
And just read, its gonna rain, so black christmas in the south, with little to nil chance of snow. What a perfect way to end this damn miserable year.
nivek
As Above So Below
August
Metanoia
So does anyone know what these vaccines are actually made from ? They are going to have 3 different ones rolled out in Australia next March now they all can't have the same ingredients in them can they ? Scuttlebutt here is that some of the vaccines are made from Chimpanzee blood and aborted human fetus's. So everyone's just expected to roll up and have a shot not knowing what's in it . That's nuts. They said on the news that there were no eggs or preservatives used in the ones we are all getting but then the next day they said there was those substances in them. Its all a shonk.
nivek
As Above So Below
Closed case fatalities have remained constant at three percent for at least a couple months or longer...The chart comes from worldometer...Three percent of the United States' population is roughly nine million nine hundred thousand people...
AD1184
Celestial
OK, I accept your apology. I am sorry that you are going through a difficult situation.
AD1184
Celestial
Here is a link about the 'aborted foetus tissue' supposedly being in the Astrazeneca vaccine:
PolitiFact - The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine does not contain aborted fetal tissue
This apparently results from a mis-reading of a scientific paper. The vaccine was tested in vitro in a human cell line derived from an aborted foetus. It does not contain such tissue. It's a bit like reading that a car company tested their latest 4x4 by driving it across a peat bog, and then a rumour starting that the car is actually made of peat.
Any risk posed by the vaccine needs to be balanced against the risk of getting Covid. I can guarantee that receiving the vaccine is a lot less risky than getting Covid (kills up to 1% of people who catch it, whereas the vaccine does not kill anything like 1% of people who receive it). Also, if large swathes of the population refuse to take it, then it just prolongs the pandemic. It is particularly important, when the most vulnerable people have been vaccinated, that the least vulnerable can also be persuaded to take it, in order to greatly reduce the prevalence of the virus to protect those vulnerable people who could not get the vaccine and the proportion in whom the vaccine is not effective. This means we can all go back to normality, without enforced social distancing regulations.
AD1184
Celestial
Parts of England have been plunged into 'tier 4' restrictions this evening, including the part in which I live. Previously, the highest tier of restrictions was 'level 3'.
The reason is the new strain mentioned by August here which has arisen in the south of England, which is causing concern:
Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus
The government is saying that the new strain is up to 70% more transmissible than other dominant strains in the country. Apparently it contains the H69/V70 deletion that made the Danish mink strain, but which had evolved independently in a few other locations, like the Netherlands, over the summer. It also contains another mutation, called N501, to the spike protein, in an are called the receptor binding domain, which is the part of the virus which binds to human ACE2, leading to infection.
There were reports of in vitro testing back in early November indicating that the virus with the H69/V70 deletion is less susceptible to human SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. The government has not said exactly why they believe that the strain transmits 70% more easily. The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, said in an address to the nation this evening that it increases the R rate of the virus by about 0.4. The median R-nought number was previously 5.7, so that would make it 6.1 for the new strain.
According to this tweet by a researcher, the strain has also been detected in Denmark, and as of the 14th of December, England and Denmark were the only two countries to have identified this strain.
Somewhat ironic given that Britain was the only country, that I know of, which imposed restrictions on people entering the country from Denmark after the announcement of the new mink strain there at the beginning of last month. England was also in a national lockdown for a month, until the 2nd of December, where outward travel was not generally not allowed, unless for special reasons.
Authorities are saying that there is no evidence that it affects vaccine effectiveness. However, that may be taken to mean that there is also no evidence that it does not affect vaccine effectiveness. Some experts have said that it is unlikely, because you would need multiple different mutations to the spike protein to alter vaccine effectiveness. However, the proof will be in what happens. There were experts who assured us that it was unlikely that Covid-19 would lead to a global pandemic.
It would probably be a good idea for other countries to bar entry to travellers from England for the time being.
The reason is the new strain mentioned by August here which has arisen in the south of England, which is causing concern:
Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus
The government is saying that the new strain is up to 70% more transmissible than other dominant strains in the country. Apparently it contains the H69/V70 deletion that made the Danish mink strain, but which had evolved independently in a few other locations, like the Netherlands, over the summer. It also contains another mutation, called N501, to the spike protein, in an are called the receptor binding domain, which is the part of the virus which binds to human ACE2, leading to infection.
There were reports of in vitro testing back in early November indicating that the virus with the H69/V70 deletion is less susceptible to human SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. The government has not said exactly why they believe that the strain transmits 70% more easily. The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, said in an address to the nation this evening that it increases the R rate of the virus by about 0.4. The median R-nought number was previously 5.7, so that would make it 6.1 for the new strain.
According to this tweet by a researcher, the strain has also been detected in Denmark, and as of the 14th of December, England and Denmark were the only two countries to have identified this strain.
Somewhat ironic given that Britain was the only country, that I know of, which imposed restrictions on people entering the country from Denmark after the announcement of the new mink strain there at the beginning of last month. England was also in a national lockdown for a month, until the 2nd of December, where outward travel was not generally not allowed, unless for special reasons.
Authorities are saying that there is no evidence that it affects vaccine effectiveness. However, that may be taken to mean that there is also no evidence that it does not affect vaccine effectiveness. Some experts have said that it is unlikely, because you would need multiple different mutations to the spike protein to alter vaccine effectiveness. However, the proof will be in what happens. There were experts who assured us that it was unlikely that Covid-19 would lead to a global pandemic.
It would probably be a good idea for other countries to bar entry to travellers from England for the time being.
