Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek

As Above So Below
Americans might still be wearing masks in 2022; world may never reach herd immunity

Over 90,000 more Americans are likely to die from COVID-19 related causes by June 1, a leading forecasting institute says. The projection comes as the U.S. expects to surpass 500,000 deaths within the next two days and Dr. Anthony Fauci says it's "possible" that Americans will still be wearing masks in 2022.

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) also warns that the world may never reach herd immunity.

IHME projects that 589,197 Americans will have died by the end of May. The good news is the institute projects that deaths could drop to fewer than 500 per day by then, and the number could be even lower if Americans are vigilant about wearing masks. The U.S. is currently averaging about 2,000 deaths per day.

More than 75% of Americans now say they wear masks in public. To reach the lower death numbers, the percentage should be about 95%, IHME says.

The institute notes that some political and public health leaders have argued that vaccinating 70%-80% of the global population could effectively end further transmission. But even nations fortunate enough to procure sufficient quantities of vaccine may never reach herd immunity, in which case COVID-19 could become a seasonal affliction that comes each year.

"While it's possible to reach herd immunity by next winter, it seems increasingly unlikely we will do so, and in light of that we all need to shift our expectations," IHME says.

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August

Metanoia
Been wondering myself. I didn't realize that the first vaccine injection provides something like 92% protection and the second shot brings it up to 94% - by whatever method they use to determine that. I'll get one when generally available but figure there are many others who need it more than I do. Have at it.

Yes and when you get the first jab its 12 weeks until the second jab and in that 12 weeks you can still catch Covid 19.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
COVID-19 is circulating in some animals. What does that mean for us?

Last month, the nation watched as Winston the gorilla came down with COVID-19 and then recovered. So far, the virus has been detected in zoo animals like Winston, domestic animals like cats and dogs, and most worryingly, in farmed and wild animals like mink and ferrets.

Now, animal experts are warning that if the virus is circulating freely in wild animals, it might develop mutations and evolve into a new version – one that is capable of jumping back into humans.

January has been the deadliest month in the United States since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last year, as efforts to distribute and administer the new vaccines continue.

And just as the United States is ramping up its efforts to find new COVID variants among people, many scientists are speaking out that we should be doing the same for animals.

“In the current pandemic, we know that the virus originated in wildlife, most likely bats, then jumped to people,” said Dr. Jonathan Epstein, an epidemiologist and vice president for science and outreach at EcoHealth Alliance. “And we know that there are a lot of other animals that are susceptible to this virus.”

Epstein explained that the COVID virus is so widespread and so many people are infected that there is a significant possibility that wildlife could be exposed through the environment, contaminated waste water or direct contact with humans.

Minks are small, carnivorous mammals that are raised mostly for their furs. So far, six countries, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Italy and the United States, have reported COVID virus infections in their mink farms to the World Health Organization.

While there is no evidence yet that the virus found in the farmed mink population is more dangerous than what has already been detected in humans, the virus does spread easily among minks that are housed closely together.

But infections in farmed and captive animals can be managed. Some farmed mink populations in Europe, for example, have been culled. Meanwhile, zoo animals like Winston are isolated and treated for their infections to limit the spread of disease.

But it's a different story once the virus jumps into wildlife.

As scientists were investigating the outbreak of COVID among farmed minks, they discovered that the virus had already spread to wild minks as well.

“What we are seeing right now is known as a spill back infection,” said Dr. Christine Kreuder Johnson, a professor of veterinary medicine and ecosystem health at the University of California—Davis School of Veterinary Medicine. The virus, which likely originated from bats, spilled over to the human population and has now “spilled back” to infect other animal species.

According to Johnson, the threat of spill back includes both wildlife populations and zoo animals. Felines, including both tigers and domestic cats, are suspected to have been infected from their human owners or caretakers.

“Widespread transmission in any animal species could be a source of virus mutation,” she said.

While there is limited evidence that the virus can significantly spread to humans from animals, scientists are concerned that the virus could change while infecting other animal species. If it spills back, or returns, to infect humans again, it could come back as a new variant.

But more testing and research still needs to be done to better understand the extent the virus can spread in animals.

“We may never have the answer to the question about how COVID spreads in wild animals,” said Dr. Tracey McNamara, a professor of pathology at the Western University of Health Sciences College of Veterinary Medicine.

“Testing in animals was discouraged from the very beginning, largely because they were concerned that there were not enough supplies," she said. "Testing in humans and wild animals use the same types of swabs.”

In a statement, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does not currently recommend routine, widespread testing among animals, and animal testing is available if “public health and animal health officials agree the animal’s case merits testing.”

That doesn’t mean, however, that we won’t be able to learn more about the spread of COVID in different species, through a process known as retrospective serologic surveys. As McNamara explained, every time a staff member interacts with or handles an animal at a zoo, they obtain a blood sample and store that in a blood bank.

Those samples are saved, and with enough funding and support, scientists could look back at those samples and potentially learn more about when COVID may have first appeared in different wild and domestic animal species.

“So much funding was poured into the development of the COVID vaccine,” said McNamara. “Creating a vaccine is very expensive, but there may be less expensive modes to decrease spreading between animal species.”

That includes treatment and prevention efforts specifically designed for captive and farmed animals. And for wild animals, it means more robust monitoring and testing -- and reducing direct contact with wildlife when possible.

Ultimately, the threat of "spill back" is a reminder that almost all virus outbreaks are zoonotic, meaning they originate in animals and wildlife.

“These pandemics don’t happen by accident,” Epstein said. “They happen because of human activity that changes the environment around us and brings us into closer contact with wildlife.”

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August

Metanoia
Matt Hancock claims cases of Covid variants are 'falling sharply'

BB1dWET2.img
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Fauci says new CDC rules are coming for people who've been fully vaccinated

Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN that new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for those who have been vaccinated should be expected "pretty soon."

The White House's chief medical advisor said on Tuesday that he would expect less-stringent guidance to come soon given the progress with the US vaccination program.

This update should "relax the stringency of the recommendations," particularly for people in the same family who have been vaccinated.

Fauci is not in charge of the CDC but has long been at the heart of the federal response to the pandemic.

It is unclear what the timeline might be for any new rules.

(More on the link)

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pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Not doubting his scientific credentials but he does appear to enjoy the limelight a bit more than I think he should. bad optics. Just goes to show anyone can develop a taste for attention. Something to keep in mind when listening to UFO accounts.



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pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Is he a show pony ?

I saw Britt Hume sum it up nicely - he's an expert with a narrow focus who has been asked to comment on areas that are not strictly his expertise. Those magazine covers belong on a wall with Cuomo's Emmy.

Sometimes things are just what they appear to be


*** and I am dead serious about strange reports. People of all stripe - of all backgrounds and educations - can get addicted to attention and praise. Dr.Davis ... paging Dr.Davis to the white metamaterial courtesy phone .....

... or reporters, pilots or lumberjacks
 

August

Metanoia
I saw Britt Hume sum it up nicely - he's an expert with a narrow focus who has been asked to comment on areas that are not strictly his expertise. Those magazine covers belong on a wall with Cuomo's Emmy.

Sometimes things are just what they appear to be


*** and I am dead serious about strange reports. People of all stripe - of all backgrounds and educations - can get addicted to attention and praise. Dr.Davis ... paging Dr.Davis to the white metamaterial courtesy phone .....

... or reporters, pilots or lumberjacks

A poser.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Amid COVID-19 pandemic, flu has disappeared in the US

February is usually the peak of flu season, with doctors' offices and hospitals packed with suffering patients. But not this year.

Flu has virtually disappeared from the U.S., with reports coming in at far lower levels than anything seen in decades.

Experts say that measures put in place to fend off the coronavirus — mask wearing, social distancing and virtual schooling — were a big factor in preventing a “twindemic” of flu and COVID-19. A push to get more people vaccinated against flu probably helped, too, as did fewer people traveling, they say.

Another possible explanation: The coronavirus has essentially muscled aside flu and other bugs that are more common in the fall and winter. Scientists don't fully understand the mechanism behind that, but it would be consistent with patterns seen when certain flu strains predominate over others, said Dr. Arnold Monto, a flu expert at the University of Michigan.

Nationally, “this is the lowest flu season we’ve had on record,” according to a surveillance system that is about 25 years old, said Lynnette Brammer of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Hospitals say the usual steady stream of flu-stricken patients never materialized.

(More on the link)

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AD1184

Celestial
Amid COVID-19 pandemic, flu has disappeared in the US

February is usually the peak of flu season, with doctors' offices and hospitals packed with suffering patients. But not this year.

Flu has virtually disappeared from the U.S., with reports coming in at far lower levels than anything seen in decades.

Experts say that measures put in place to fend off the coronavirus — mask wearing, social distancing and virtual schooling — were a big factor in preventing a “twindemic” of flu and COVID-19. A push to get more people vaccinated against flu probably helped, too, as did fewer people traveling, they say.

Another possible explanation: The coronavirus has essentially muscled aside flu and other bugs that are more common in the fall and winter. Scientists don't fully understand the mechanism behind that, but it would be consistent with patterns seen when certain flu strains predominate over others, said Dr. Arnold Monto, a flu expert at the University of Michigan.

Nationally, “this is the lowest flu season we’ve had on record,” according to a surveillance system that is about 25 years old, said Lynnette Brammer of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Hospitals say the usual steady stream of flu-stricken patients never materialized.

(More on the link)
Flu is less transmissible than Covid. It is not surprising that measures taken to limit the transmission of Covid have an even more pronounced effect on flu.

In Britain, we saw this not just in the relative prevalence of flu, but of different Covid strains as well. Our second national lockdown in November saw the rates of new cases of the then-dominant strain plummet, even while the rates of the new, more transmissible, Kent strain were rising.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Once a darling of the pandemic, Germany now has more than 1 million vaccines unused in storage

At a time when vaccines are in such urgent demand, Germany has more than 1 million unused doses sitting in storage — partly because people are reluctant to take them.

Once hailed for its coronavirus response, Germany has administered just 15 percent of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine it has received, the country's health ministry said in a briefing Wednesday.

Some officials blame shaken trust among members of the public, following statements by political leaders and incorrect press reports questioning the vaccine's efficacy. Others point to a dysfunctional rollout plan that has failed to invite enough people to make vaccination appointments.

The vaccine rollout in the European Union has been far slower than in the United States or Britain. Leaders from the 27-nation E.U. met virtually Thursday to find ways to speed things up amid fears that new variants could bring new waves of infection to the continent. The E.U. has given just 7 shots per 100 people, compared with 20 per 100 in the U.S. and almost 28 per 100 in the U.K.

The U.K., with one of the highest death rates in the world, has been lauded for its vaccine strategy. This week, the German tabloid Bild splashed the union flag on its front page alongside the message, "Dear Britain, We Envy You."


(More on the link)

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