The Challenges of the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis of UFO Phenomena

nivek

As Above So Below
The Challenges of the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis of UFO Phenomena

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In the past, I often explained that nearly all UFO sightings are misidentified terrestrial objects such as man-made aircraft, weather balloons, and satellites; as well as natural phenomena like meteors, birds, lens flares, and just about anything moving within the electromagnetic spectrum’s visible band. Moreover, alleged physical evidence such as debris from UFO crashes, burn marks on the ground, or alien implants have all turned out to be quite terrestrial, including elaborate hoaxes. Thus, after decades of research by hundreds of UFO investigators, not one UFO has been unequivocally identified as an extraterrestrial spacecraft in a way required by science and/or common sense. Contrary to what most mainstream ufologists proclaim, there is no physical evidence to support their extraterrestrial hypothesis of UFO phenomena.

Attacking physics and space science, furthermore, is the standard modus operandi I have encountered at UFO gatherings. Rather than presenting incontrovertible evidence to prove their extraterrestrial hypothesis, members of the UFO community attack scientists and skeptics by attempting to expose weaknesses to a counterargument. Such refutation, however, is no substitute for evidentiary support of the extraterrestrial hypothesis for UFO phenomena. It is simply faulty logic to assume that, because a scientist’s or skeptic’s explanations may be flawed, the UFO community’s hypothesis is valid. Another common tactic deployed by the UFO community is to claim that, if science cannot prove that a UFO was not an extraterrestrial spacecraft, one can infer that it is in fact an extraterrestrial spacecraft (e.g., because it was too large or moved faster than conventional aircraft). This kind of reasoning is known as the argumentum ad ignorantiam or the argument from ignorance. A claim does not become true or reasonable if a contrary claim cannot be proved to be true.

The UFO community, unfortunately, has become a cult inundated with New Age claptrap, pseudoscience, cryptozoology and the paranormal. This is why scientists and academicians (including me) distance themselves from the UFO community. In addition to false hope from the science-fiction entertainment industry, as well as spectacles found only at large-scale UFO conferences, there are several reasons why the UFO community believes that extraterrestrials are behind UFO phenomena. Some of these reasons include:




    • Questionable interpretations of visual experiences augmented by pseudoscience such as hypnosis.
    • The testimony of unreliable witnesses.
    • Inability to separate science fiction from science.
    • The inclination to believe people who tell fantastic stories.
    • The naïve belief that all disagreement among sources is part of a worldwide government conspiracy to withhold the truth about UFOs.
    • A desire for contact with beings from another world.
    • A belief that extraterrestrials are interested in the welfare of humanity, which either already is, or eventually will become, part of a preexisting civilization.
Ufology, in short, is now a cult in which belief in extraterrestrials is analogous to belief in the supernatural.

Emotions and Confirmation Bias

Rather than applying science and logic to defend the extraterrestrial hypothesis of UFO phenomena, the UFO community addresses the issue through emotions and confirmation bias. Ufologists have a predisposition to favor information, no matter how fantastic, that confirms their beliefs or assumptions. They display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively or when they interpret it in a biased way. This inclination is especially prominent at UFO conferences when emotionally charged stories of alleged alien abductions and government conspiracies are presented. Those who support the extraterrestrial hypothesis of UFO phenomena, moreover, tend to interpret ambiguous and anecdotal evidence as supporting their existing position. This is often the result of media sound bites, social media, and UFO organizations’ claims that they are “scientific” entities. When confirmation bias is coupled with pareidolia, apophenia, and illusory correlation, the end result is belief perseverance, which contributes to overconfidence and strengthens beliefs even in the face of contrary evidence.

Lastly, belief in the extraterrestrial hypothesis of UFO phenomena did not develop into self-validating structures all by themselves. They are the direct result of the UFO community leaders’ often modifying and revising their agenda to conform to the prevailing culture of their memberships. A clear example of this occurred when the UFO community was faced with a serious institutional crisis regarding the U.S. government’s explanation for the 1947 Roswell incident. Rather than accepting the proven fact that the UFO was actually a balloon under the auspices of Project Mogul, the UFO community conveniently resorted to claims of a government cover-up.

Ufology Is Not a Science

Science is a systematic enterprise that constructs and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe. Ufology, however, is not a science, and no research on or investigation of UFOs has provided a testable explanation and prediction. Nevertheless, there is a growing trend in the UFO community to present ufology as a science and a topic that requires urgent response from the government. Many mainstream ufologists as well as speakers at UFO conferences attempt to use fancy words such as quantum mechanics, which should immediately be considered a red flag. Most ufologists are not scientists and are simply invoking a poorly understood branch of science. Quantum mechanics is the science that deals with matter at the level of atomic and subatomic particles; thus, it cannot be applied to the macroscopic world of large physical objects such as UFOs.

Too often attendees at UFO conferences are perfectly willing to believe the alleged evidence that supposedly proves the UFO hypothesis in their favor, but they steadfastly refuse to consider the overwhelming evidence that contradicts or refutes their claims. In other words, most ufologists cherry-pick the evidence, which is not an allowable option in legitimate science.

Reliability vs. Credibility

Every year hundreds of thousands of reports of unusual sightings and alleged abductions flood the Internet and social media. Organizations such as the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) and National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) inundate the UFO community with reports that thousands of UFOs are being documented each month. If only 1% of these sightings were both reliable and credible, it would appear, on the surface, that at the very least thousands of extraterrestrials are visiting planet Earth. That is not the case.

From 2010-2017, I conducted a comprehensive analysis of approximately 10,000 sightings reported to MUFON. The analysis concluded, first, that the vast majority of these sightings were reported by the average person and almost never by professional or amateur astronomers, who are trained observers and spend inordinate amounts of time observing the sky. Second, more than 85% of these reports were incomplete, contained inaccurate and ambiguous information, and were not properly vetted under a systematic control system. The reliability of most of these reports, therefore, was questionable at best. I suspect that if a proper case-control system had been in place and the monthly reporting numbers reflected such a process, perhaps only a few dozen reports per year would be forwarded for investigation. In short, most reports of UFO sightings are unreliable, and the numbers routinely published are deceptive.

From time to time a handful of pilots, military personnel, and police officers did report seeing a UFO. The credibility of these witnesses was taken for granted because of their official titles and/or positions. Unfortunately, however, such reports are too often sensationalized to imply that, because there are no logical explanations for what the officials observed, it must have been an extraterrestrial spacecraft. Regardless of these witnesses’ positions, their reliability can only be established once a thorough Personal Credibility Assessment Investigation on them is completed, which my research found to be rarely conducted.

Challenges for the UFO Community

The UFO craze is now part of a modern subculture. Every year thousands of UFO buffs spend millions of dollars to attend UFO conferences and purchase clothing with pictures of little green men, sensationalistic books, and a variety of UFO paraphernalia. Some U.S. cities even sponsor annual parades, such as that at the Annual Roswell UFO Festival in New Mexico.

In closing, the facts are quite simple. The UFO community’s hypothesis of extraterrestrials is scientifically unsubstantiated conjecture at best. The Observable Universe’s scale, the composition of stars and alleged extraterrestrials’ home planets, the speed of light as applied to interstellar travel, and the hazards of prolonged spaceflight all indicate that technologically advanced, spacefaring civilizations either do not exist, are extinct, or are too far away to detect. That is not to say that other Earth-like planets, or for that matter other planets with complex and/or primitive life, do not exist. Even planets with intelligent life can be common in the universe. Ultimately, however, these assertions are speculation at best because no planets with technologically intelligent life have been detected, yet.

Plous, Scott (1993). The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. New York: McGraw-Hill.

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nivek

As Above So Below
This is a good read, I thought I'd post the entire article here...Any thoughts, I have a few which I'll post soon...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
I think there are many good points here in that article but the perspective is erroneous to a certain degree...Many of the things described do occur, I have seen that for myself, bad-mouthing or attacking science or scientific views, some think the scientists are part of the NWO or alien conspiracy to hold back knowledge or whatever, it happens on UFO alien forums too...

There is a great deal of voodoo cultish pseudoscience mixed in the UFO community with all of the interdimensional paranormal theories too which has still more science fiction than anything else...But there is also a great deal of evidence that shows us there are physical creatures of intelligence visiting our world and science supports the evidence of these aliens are extraterrestrial in origin...Science cannot support science fiction as a reality and that is what the interdimensional ideas are, science fiction, some day in the future that might change as our knowledge of the universe grows and more evidence and understanding is gained, but that's how I see it...

I'm a spiritual person and science is only beginning to understand the spiritual side of man, for the most part spiritual experiences are rejected by science, in my opinion, but that does not mean I reject science, I actually embrace it because its an ever evolving process, meaning the more we explore the more we discover and our views of the reality around us changes over time...I have many spiritual experiences on a regular basis, I have walked my own path of the esoteric for over 30 years, its been my life's work, although science rejects or would discount my personal experiences I do not reject science, I'm also an engineer lol...

Many of you have researched and explored the UFO phenomena a lot longer than I have but its also been my interest for a long time, having experiences of my own...From my perspective there is a mixing of the supernatural, paranormal, alien, UFOs and even cryptozoology to a point of ridiculousness...There is a diverse universe before us and what we are seeing is very diverse accounts and sightings, not one theory or concept or idea can cover all of these, but that's what a lot of people in Ufology want to do, some even go so far as to call it all the work of some 'trickster' an all mighty being who is playing games with us and then state we will never figure it out...What an absurdity, such utter nonsense...This type thinking has no place in valid research, in my opinion, it has no place in describing spiritual experiences either, its simply science fiction thinking, keep it on on telly or in the movies and let proper research discover the answers and we will in time...We are dealing with otherworldly beings, it takes time to gather this kind of evidence and proof and conduct proper investigation...The answers are not going to come overnight unless alien spacecraft suddenly start landing all over the world and interact with us directly...Well that hasn't happened yet and honestly I hope it doesn't happen without proper warning or we will have a mass planet wide panic...

I think this article has some good points and bad points and much misinterpretation, there is a mix of views in Ufology from the ETH to interdimensional but the evidence speaks for itself and most of it does point to the ETH explanation...There is a percentage of sighting or encounters which cannot be properly explained and are used as evidence of an interdimensional source and will this many be possible, its too soon to jump to that conclusion...I believe there are other dimensions because of my esoteric work and experiences but it is not to be confused with claims of physical contact or physical sightings from other dimensions, these are different things...I don't think we should shun other theories as much as put them in their proper place and perspective and shouldn't allow wild unsubstantiated concepts to push out real scientific research and discovery...

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ImmortalLegend527

The Messenger Of All Gods old and new
I really don't know when you opened this particular program Nivek. Its very unusual for some one to just...delete...and...reprogram the way you did.

I know I sound weired but in reality,we talk in codes because we find it special for a mortal to actually understand what in your gods life I'm talking about.

It's what's real in our teachings and research.
Did it hurt, when that door opened up...this,new...freuqency/program?

Ufology was uploaded june 24th 1947."Upload kennoth Arnold"

How complicated and how complex,would it be,when every humans reactions on this Earth changes the future. This action and reaction is done close to 13 billion times per milisecond everyday none stop.

THAY"...THEM......the ones that you see some times...Destroyed Ufology less then 29 hours later.

Every reaction creates another reaction.

Roswell, July 8th 1947 they uploaded Ufology for you humans and it was quickly put in the trash bin once again.

U-Unidentified.
And
O-Object.

Just those 2 words are blocking 1,578 programs,2 doors and an eye opening from being uploaded to humans and then down loaded amongst the "sightful".

:facepalm: wtf.
:movember:I am..new here and uh,I..don't have no idea WTH your talking about.What is the sightful?

:movie: The sightful are the ones whom dwell on sites such as the one your on.The ones that have seen or experienced events.

Example.5 people are on the balcony All 5 are looking the same way.A shooting star appears but only 2 people see it.

Those 2 people who saw the star first are sightful. In our teachings their are layer's to reality layer's to exactly witch upload adapts to whoms sight.

Those 2 people point at the star and they say look!

As they say look-they have then-at that point-have giving thier eyes -the right-to jump into thier layer and now all are seeing the star.
:sarcastic: Bravo...now explain that again!

a0014 Hell no,we understand, you don't need to explain.
.:smoke: Let me get this correct, 5 people can look in the same direction but only 2 people can see the star and

:movie: 2 people can be standing right in front of each other but only one can see that it's raining,yes.

I'm so off topic,sorry great thread.
 

ImmortalLegend527

The Messenger Of All Gods old and new
PS.Close the door completely on science if you do 23 doors will opened plus 3 eye openers.

Science has 9,756 viruses in all it's programs.5,654 of them are created viruses which are the worst.

Clear all programs that's not under the category of reality.

It's time to permently delete alot of unwanted programs...exspecielly before winter.

Your seeing between the layers....Greatest Secret ever told copy written by iml527.

But in some cases the layers can see you.

They have the ability to peirce trough the layers as well.
 

SOUL-DRIFTER

Life Long Researcher
So did the psychologist Scott Plous write that article, or someone else?
He is correct on some of it.
Some he shows a lack of education about UFOs and the reports.
He writes almost as if he is angry....

His message seems to be...if science has not yet proven it, then it probably does not exist....
 
So did the psychologist Scott Plous write that article, or someone else?
He is correct on some of it.
Some he shows a lack of education about UFOs and the reports.
He writes almost as if he is angry....

His message seems to be...if science has not yet proven it, then it probably does not exist....
I've read so many of these absurd attempts to discredit this field of inquiry that I can't even waste my time with it anymore. The arguments are all dated and irrelevant now anyway. Look at this closing statement:

"In closing, the facts are quite simple. The UFO community’s hypothesis of extraterrestrials is scientifically unsubstantiated conjecture at best. The Observable Universe’s scale, the composition of stars and alleged extraterrestrials’ home planets, the speed of light as applied to interstellar travel, and the hazards of prolonged spaceflight all indicate that technologically advanced, spacefaring civilizations either do not exist, are extinct, or are too far away to detect. That is not to say that other Earth-like planets, or for that matter other planets with complex and/or primitive life, do not exist. Even planets with intelligent life can be common in the universe. Ultimately, however, these assertions are speculation at best because no planets with technologically intelligent life have been detected, yet."

We can go over these points one by one and easily destroy them.

"The UFO community’s hypothesis of extraterrestrials is scientifically unsubstantiated conjecture at best."
Actually the more we learn about astrophysics, the more likely it appears to be that life is ubiquitous throughout the universe, and it seems likely that intelligence will also be fairly common because it's such a powerful evolutionary advantage.

Also, I would challenge this writer to go ahead and offer a more scientific explanation for the thousands of anomalous sighting events that involve physical devices operating in our airspace that can hover silently and accelerate instantaneously, vastly outperforming and sometimes evading our top jet interceptors with the ease of an adult taking candy away from a baby. Many of these cases involve radar confirmation, and the testimony of extremely credible witnesses, like the recent Nimitz Carrier Strike Group case. And the Pentagon's AATIP investigative effort concluded that these devices are real, and aren't a part of any terrestrial inventory. So that leaves nonterrestrial inventories as the only remaining credible explanation.

"The Observable Universe’s scale, the composition of stars and alleged extraterrestrials’ home planets, the speed of light as applied to interstellar travel, and the hazards of prolonged spaceflight all indicate that technologically advanced, spacefaring civilizations either do not exist, are extinct, or are too far away to detect."
All of this is wrong, except for the fact that we have no means of detecting alien civilizations. The Kepler Mission data indicates at least 20 billion warm Earth-like worlds in our galaxy alone, so some of them will be within a few light-years of Earth. The average age of these warm Earth-like worlds that are most suited for life, is between 1-3 billion years older than our planet; so there has been plenty of time for intelligent life to arise on these worlds, and to dramatically surpass us technologically. Recent Harvard astrophysics analyses have found that most Earth-like worlds will have very similar compositions to our Earth, and retain atmospheres of similar molecules, and have magnetic fields, and we know that water is abundant throughout the universe.

And nearly 25 years ago, Miguel Alcubierre published the first academic paper demonstrating that superluminal spaceflight is possible within the context of general relativity, so the speed of light may not be an obstacle to any sufficiently advanced civilization - in theory, gravitational field propulsion permits a sufficiently advanced spacecraft to traverse several light-years of distance and return home in time for lunch, with no time dilation effects. But yes of course extraterrestrial civilizations are too far way to detect, because we can't resolve details about planets orbiting other stars. We could be surrounded with such civilizations and we'd have no way of knowing about it at present, unless they visit the Earth, which seems to be exactly what's happening.

"That is not to say that other Earth-like planets, or for that matter other planets with complex and/or primitive life, do not exist. Even planets with intelligent life can be common in the universe. Ultimately, however, these assertions are speculation at best because no planets with technologically intelligent life have been detected, yet."
Now we're on the same page - it's true that we haven't yet detected technologically intelligent life on exosolar worlds. It's also true that we have no means whatsoever of detecting technological civilizations on exosolar worlds, so this non-detection is totally meaningless. If we reach the level of scientific advancement required to detect alien civilizations upon planets orbiting other stars, and fail to detect such civilizations at that point, then we can begin setting upper limits on the prevalence of technological civilizations in our galactic vicinity. But until then, the absence of data tells us nothing.

These angry pseudoskeptics who irrationally hate the idea of extraterrestrial visitation to our planet, always remind me of the exceptionally talentless scientists who were ridiculing the idea of a man landing on the Moon...right up until the moment that we did it. Minds this small are like ballast, slowing the natural evolution of thought as our scientific knowledge expands and demands new and deeper understanding of our place in the universe.

It's pointless to try to drag them forward with us. We should just leave them behind, like we've always done throughout human history, and forget their names as we forge ahead, buoyed by the brilliance of the real innovators and scientific visionaries who deserve our enduring respect for their historic contributions to human progress.

 
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So it took some digging, but I found the author of that article above, Antonio Paris - here's his Twitter:

Antonio Paris (@AntonioParis) | Twitter

This guy has been the Director of a little organization called Aerial Phenomena Investigations, which has somehow failed to find any compelling evidence of extraterrestrial visitation to the Earth.

But here's the kicker: this guy has somehow completely missed the New York Times story about the Pentagon's Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP), and when somebody shared a CNN clip of Erin Burnett interviewing Luis Elizondo, the former Director of the AATIP, he rejected it because it was on YouTube! Lol. Look, I'm not kidding:

ScreenHunter_738 Aug. 01 19.35.jpg
(Source: Antonio Paris on Twitter)

Here's my reply:

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(Source: Thomas R. Morrison on Twitter)

Wow. I have no idea how it's even possible that someone who professes an interest in this subject could have missed the last 9 months of on-going press revelations about this subject, but somehow he pulled it off. Here's a photo of the genius who wrote that dumb hit piece in the OP - adjunct astronomy professor Antonio Paris, Ladies and Germs:

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