Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek

As Above So Below

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable

AD1184

Celestial
Here's the part that worries me though: the closed cases data is telling us that if you test positive for this virus, then you're facing a 13% chance of dying from it.

If I've missed something or my logic is flawed somewhere, let me know: I want to be wrong about this.
I think you are correct in your surmise that there is a high mortality in medically significant cases of the disease. I think that the mortality rate is going to change throughout the course of the epidemic as medical capacity is stretched more thinly.

A statistic that I have seen reported in several places is that 80% of cases are mild (not requiring hospitalization). Of the remainder, about 5% of cases are 'critical'. Critical presumably means requiring mechanical ventilator support. Possibly the 'serious' 15% of cases are those needing oxygen support (or similar) only, although I cannot find a source that states this explicitly.

At the peak of the epidemic throughout many countries, the intensive care capacity is going to be fully occupied, and thus there will be nowhere for the 5% critical cases to go. So 5% critical probably becomes 5% dead, which appears to be what happened in Wuhan (the mortality rate was about 5.8% in Wuhan, and about 0.7% for the rest of China, which had adequate medical capacity for the number of cases), and has possibly been even worse in Northern Italy.

These numbers are only estimates, of course. The actual mortality is not known, and testing is inadequate in most affected countries. The ratio of mild/serious/critical cases depends on the age distribution and health of the infected.

But at this point we now have a large number of closed cases, so we can get a clear empirical estimate of the actual fatality rate. Here it is:
I am not usually an optimist, but I would expect recoveries to be reported more cautiously than deaths. This is what happened in the Wuhan outbreak, as I was observing this statistic at that time as the epidemic progressed. The figure started high, but gradually lowered as more recoveries were reported. The mortality rate is bad, but probably not as bad as that.
 

AD1184

Celestial
It behoves me to point out that the situation out of doors grows more dangerous by the day. The number of infected people is rising exponentially, as we are in the early stages of the epidemic. There will be twice as many infected in a few days' time. And twice as many as that a few days later. People can spread the disease pre-symptomatically, or even asymptomatically (before they get symptoms, or when the disease is so mild they do not have symptoms).

You do not want to get infected now. There is an incubation period of a few days (I have seen a figure of an average of six days). It then apparently takes about eight days from the onset of symptoms for your condition to deteriorate (if you are not fortunate enough to escape the serious disease). Therefore, if you are infected now, you can expect you will not be presenting to the emergency room for another two weeks. What provision of care will be able to be provided to you in two weeks' time? Probably a much worse one than at present. You could be spending weeks in intensive care if you can get to intensive care. If your condition takes a downturn, then they might deem that there is someone more likely to benefit in your stead.

I have been trying to avoid going out of doors at all costs. I have had some food deliveries, but a lot of items I ordered did not show up because of panic buying by others stripping supermarket shelves. I have an office job and we have all been told to work from home. Going out for food might be the only reason I have to go out, but I am not relishing it, given reports of scenes at local supermarkets, and the fact that I have some risk factors for the serious illness.

I managed to buy a plastic face shield on Amazon, which should be delivered shortly. There is some criticism of the effectiveness of PPE for the general public by, particulalry western, health authorities. However, the official information is nevertheless that the disease is spread primarily through projected respiratory droplets from coughing and sneezing. Therefore a face shield that covers your eyes, nose and mouth (not a surgical mask) would have to make a difference to your level of risk. It will also stop you unconsciously touching your face. If transmission is truly airborne (not requiring respiratory droplets) then the shield will be less effective of course. Doubt has been cast officially on this disease being airborne, although some studies have claimed it is. Some people might be airborne spreaders ('super-spreaders') and others not.

I also have disposable nitrile gloves and hand sanitizer bottles that I can refill from a larger pump bottle which I bought before the epidemic became significant. I also have some touch screen styluses, which mean I can use my phone when wearing the gloves (touch screens don't work when you are wearing nitrile gloves).

Medics are going to run out of PPE shortly. They are reliant upon a stock of disposable PPE which is changed multiple times per shift. There are so many health workers that no stockpile is sufficient to last throughout a lengthy epidemic. They are probably going to have to revert to some form of non-disposable PPE, which is probably not as effective, but at least will last.
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Here where I live panic is slowly subsiding. 7 days ago there was no milk or bread. Today there was plenty of both. Some other things are still in short supply, like pasta, Paracitamol, C-vitamin and toilet paper. I think that most people are stuck with tons of dry food and they will realize that they over reacted.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Had a long talk with my sister in Raleigh last night. While chatting she told me that her husband was working from home but she had no problem going to the gym, hair and nail salons, etc. Business pretty much as usual. She grew up here in Dutchess county and when I told her how things were up here she actually took me seriously. I guess it - the virus and the panic - hasn't struck there quite the way it has elsewhere. They just set up a big drive-thru testing facility a few miles away at the county baseball stadium.

Then you have my brother-in-law and sister-in-law in Florida. They just bought a house and are 100% oblivious to this. She has a doctorate in nursing and still doesn't get it. Like Egyptian alligators they iz in de-Nile. Their only concern is renovating their stupid new home and are trying to find contractors. Worse, they're calling to my wife's mother and sister on NYC telling her she's overreacting and this is all bullshit - and to turn off Fox news. As if they created the panic. At least her home health aide got the message and is staying home for the duration. There's a whole other can of worms we're trying to figure out how to deal with right now.

I agree there's hype, there always is. It is possible to overreact - but for the love of God doing so means you're isolated, wearing a mask and washing a lot harming no one. Under-reacting means you are a f*****g menace to the public at large.

So here's an educated professional who seems otherwise normal spouting outrageous nonsense. Strange to be thinking of UFOs and the paranormal in this context, but this is why I don't automatically give credibility to someone just because they have a degree.

I am just going about my business here today. Not particularly worked up but in no hurry to go anywhere.
 

AD1184

Celestial
Then you have my brother-in-law and sister-in-law in Florida. They just bought a house and are 100% oblivious to this. She has a doctorate in nursing and still doesn't get it. Like Egyptian alligators they iz in de-Nile.
A lot of people are in denial, including our national governments until quite recently.

Denial of something so enormous seems to be a natural human response for a large proportion of people. I think also a lot of people do not understand how quickly this situation can change.

To those of us who understand what is about to happen, the response has been too late. For those who do not understand, it seems premature. They seem to assume that the signs of an epidemic's seriousness are going to build gradually, and that we only need to respond to these signs, rather than get ahead of them. Both of these assumptions are incorrect, and are going to be fatal to many. The number of infected is growing exponentially fast.

People are still making stupid comparisons to the seasonal flu: "Coronavirus as only killed 15,000 people, whereas flu kills 500,000 every year". The difference is that flu is already an endemic disease, whereas Covid-19 is brand new. We are only in the very early stages of the epidemic, and these people should hold off a year or so before comparing annual death tolls.
 
Yeah some people still think this is nothing. To quote our president Sauli Niinistö : "That kind of foolhardiness wanes away on the hospital bed at the latest."

Never underestimate the power of denial.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Has Italy started to turn the tide on coronavirus? Slowdown in infections and deaths offers glimmer of hope that national lockdown is working two weeks after it was put in place


Italy recorded 651 deaths from coronavirus on Sunday and 5,560 new cases - still the highest daily figures anywhere in the world but a significant drop on Saturday, suggesting national lockdown measures are helping to 'flatten the curve' (graph left shows a drop-off in deaths, pic top right shows a victim lying in the street in Rome, and bottom right soldiers watch over train passengers in Naples). The two week gap between the lockdown being put in place and the figures coming down is significant because this is how long analysts believe it takes for the measures to show in the data.

It is doubly significant because the UK - with 281 deaths - is said to be exactly two weeks behind Italy but with far more relaxed restrictions in place. Italy plans to extend its lockdown even further this week, including slowing industrial production, banning outdoor workouts and placing distance-limits on dog walkers (pictured right, a man talks on the phone on his balcony during lockdown in Milan, and a woman is watched by soldiers after arriving in Naples via train).


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nivek

As Above So Below
Beijing's leading doctor warns of a NEW coronavirus outbreak in China after the country reported its first case of someone 'catching the illness from a person returning from abroad'

Professor Li Lanjuan (pictured), a member of Beijing's expert team on the virus, told state media she was 'very worried that imported cases could trigger another large-scale epidemic in our country'.

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nivek

As Above So Below
Spain is a disaster now...ugh

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Horrifying images show coronavirus patients lying on the floor of a packed Madrid hospital as city is overrun with cases and country's death toll tops 2,000 with 462 victims in past 24 hours

The scenes were reportedly recorded at the Infanta Leonor Hospital and the Severo Ochoa de Leganes Hospital in the Spanish capital Madrid. The shocking video shows some patients coughing deeply as a medic stands nearby and some of those on the floor also appear to be hooked up to oxygen tanks. A second clip shows a health worker walking through the packed corridors of the Severo Ochoa de Leganes Hospital, with patients lining the corridors on gurneys, with many heard coughing too. Local newspaper El Mundo reported that the second hospital confirmed they 'are not admitting more patients' as they are at 'maximum capacity'.

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nivek

As Above So Below
ID to leave the house, non-essential shops shut and police patrolling for anyone in a group: Boris Johnson 'faces Cabinet revolt' unless he imposes European-style lockdown TODAY to stop coronavirus spread


Boris Johnson faces massive pressure to impose a European-style lockdown to avert coronavirus disaster today as people continue to flout government guidance. Demands are growing for the PM to ramp up controls after extraordinary images emerged this morning (centRe) of still-packed Tube trains in London - regarded as the engine of the UK outbreak.After a weekend in which crowds flocked to parks and landmarks to take advantage of sunshine, Mr Johnson effectively put the nation on its final warning last night, saying there should be 'no doubt' he would take draconian action. Health Secretary Matt Hancock underlined this morning that a decision is expected 'very soon', hitting out at 'selfish' behaviour and saying 'nothing is off the table'.

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Shadowprophet

Truthiness
This Is Joe Scott, He is a Yale Graduate, Who found out he could make more money on youtube than his actual Job, He could give any of us here a run for our sourcebooks. A truly scholarly guy, He says, The coronavirus is just the beginning of our woes.

 

nivek

As Above So Below
This will be very very bad if it spreads through dogs...

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Second dog tests positive for coronavirus as owners warned not to abandon pets

The Hong Kong government has urged people not to abandon their pets and to stop kissing them after a second dog tested positive for coronavirus, but stressed that the animal had not shown any symptoms of the disease. A German shepherd living in the Pok Fu Lam area on Hong Kong Island was sent for quarantine along with another mixed-breed dog from the same residence on Thursday after their owner was confirmed as being infected, the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said in a statement.

Though the shepherd tested positive for the virus, no such result was obtained from the mixed-breed dog, and “neither dog has shown any signs of disease,” the AFCD said, adding it will continue to monitor both dogs and conduct repeated tests on the animals.


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Shadowprophet

Truthiness
This will be very very bad if it spreads through dogs...

...

Second dog tests positive for coronavirus as owners warned not to abandon pets

The Hong Kong government has urged people not to abandon their pets and to stop kissing them after a second dog tested positive for coronavirus, but stressed that the animal had not shown any symptoms of the disease. A German shepherd living in the Pok Fu Lam area on Hong Kong Island was sent for quarantine along with another mixed-breed dog from the same residence on Thursday after their owner was confirmed as being infected, the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said in a statement.

Though the shepherd tested positive for the virus, no such result was obtained from the mixed-breed dog, and “neither dog has shown any signs of disease,” the AFCD said, adding it will continue to monitor both dogs and conduct repeated tests on the animals.


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I know my stability has already clocked out, Still, There is nowhere to run from this thing. I last night at 3 in the morning went into my garage turned everything on, and tried to pretend this whole issue simply didn't exist. Now my daughter Jordan who previously wasn't worried about this Coronavirus is beginning to seriously worry, And there is rumors finally that a statewide quarantine is coming. However, To my absolute dismay, Sam was briefed this morning she and several others will be issued special papers and a badge to prove she is an essential worker she is to keep these papers in the passenger seat of her car and present them to the national guard or Police offers, The term used was, "when she is pulled over" It appears the lockdown is finally about to happen here, I can't quote a time frame, But this news is from really high up, at least as far as Kentucky goes.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
An intensive-care expert broke down just how contagious the coronavirus is, showing how one person going out can end up infecting 59,000

Professor Hugh Montgomery, director of the Institute for Human Health and Performance at University College London, told Channel 4's "Dispatches" that the virus is three times more infectious than the flu, and therefore spreads much faster and wider.

"Normal flu, if I get that, I'm going to infect on average 1.3, 1.4 people ... by the time it's happened 10 times, I've been responsibly for about 14 cases of flu," Montgomery said.

This figure comes from calculating 1.4 to the power of ten, which yields 13.786.

"This coronavirus is very, very infectious, so every person passes to it three, now that doesn't sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three pass it to three and that happens in 10 layers, I have been responsible for infecting 59,000 people."

This figure it from raising three to the power of ten, which yields 59,059.


 
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