Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

AD1184

Celestial
I do think that actual recoveries are being kept in the 'active cases' category due to under-reporting. I saw it happen with the daily updated Wuhan data. I calculated the CFR daily at work from the published numbers. It was initially a nearly 30% CFR in the outcomes, before gradually reducing to single digits.

Worldometer includes those outcomes of which it has learned through the various global health authorities. If they report deaths more diligently than they report recoveries, then the outcomes are going to over-represent the deaths. Recoveries are more ambiguous than deaths (at least, the point in time at which they occur is), which probably explains why they are more conservatively reported.
To illustrate my point with a local example, here is the UK-wide data I have recorded from Public Health England (I record it because it updates with the current daily and cumulative amounts only, and historic data is otherwise not easily retrievable):
upload_2020-3-27_18-6-41.png

It seems that Britain is much worse than the average in reporting recoveries, and if we take the data on reported outcomes as Gospel, then Britain has an 84.9% CFR for Covid-19. You can notice that the count of recoveries has not been updated since the 22nd, but there was still a CFR of 67.5% on the day of the last update to the recovered figure.

We might suppose that there is a lengthy delay in the reporting of recoveries, which leads to them being under-reported until a correction is made at some point later on. This does not appear to be a priority at this time, however.
 
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pepe

Celestial
Had a thought of being negative in a world of positive and how that would change the run and hide approach.

First penguin to dodge the leopard is the start of them all and I always worry for the last one.
 
I have full faith that before this virus claims millions of lives we will have a vaccine though. That's the thing, To give it time to claim millions of lives,, Which I admit, In third world countries, It may, even this year. But, People are doing their numbers all wrongly on this, They are estimating numbers without account for any defense, There are several defenses we will have,

Defense one, Some people on planet earth already have immunities built up against this, Yes they call it novel, But Those who have already recovered, do have some small amount of immunity. I question, Why we can't study those people who have recovered and attempt to get antibodies from those people?
Okay first of all, the empirical data right now shows that these "defenses" you're talking about are doing exactly jack shit to slow the spread of this virus in the US. Every 8 days the official number of infections has grown by a factor of 10, in a clear geometrical progression. Without a national lock-down, this will continue until the virus starts to run out of new people to infect, but by then the fate of millions of Americans will be sealed.

They're working on harvesting antibodies from recovered patients right now so they can start treating the infected, and it might help. But it's a very limited form of treatment, because the antibodies have to be harvested from patients who beat the virus, and you can only squeeze so much blood from a patient. Over the next few months as this virus ravages America, maybe we'll save 100 people that way. Maybe a thousand. Maybe even 10,000. But that's a mighty small percentage of the millions of people we're about to see hospitalized.

Defense two, We will eventually have a vaccine, So, Yes, doing the numbers in this way, By the time it can take millions of lives there will be a vaccine, Look at the numbers it's claimed so far, For it to claim millions of lives exponentially, It's going to take time, You speak truly when you say there is no cure for viruses, But there are vaccines. A vaccine will come in time, I promise.
No, this is a pipe dream. At the current rate of infection the entire country will have been exposed to this virus within the next 4-8 weeks. Eighteen years after the first SARS virus, we still don't have a vaccine for that one, and the two viruses are closely related. And even if we came up with a vaccine today, it takes 12-18 months just to conduct safety studies. Setting up manufacturing at the scale we need would take many months more:

"Overall, if all pieces fell into place, Hatchett guesses it would be 12 to 18 months before an initial product could be deemed safe and effective. That timeline represents “a vast acceleration compared with the history of vaccine development,” he told me. But it’s also unprecedentedly ambitious. “Even to propose such a timeline at this point must be regarded as hugely aspirational,” he added."
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

We may see a vaccine someday, but not until long after this virus has swept the globe.

Defense 3, Heard immunity, As more people recover and build immunity to this virus, They will not be active spreaders. The Virus won't always spread like wildfire. from person to person. A person who has good immunity to this, won't be contagious as long as others. eventually no matter how one slices it the spread will slow brother.
Again, this is no help right now, when the virus is spreading like wildfire totally unimpeded by any herd immunity. Herd immunity will help us battle future outbreaks of this virus (we hope - but there are concerns that the immunity to this one may be unusually short-lived), but it will play no significant role this year, which is the time frame of immediate concern.

This virus is fighting us. But We are fighting it, In a myriad of ways. The human immune system Will fight back. Eventually, This Coronavirus will be nothing more than serious flu.
It spreads like it does Because its novel, That won't be the case always and its spread will slow without question, without a doubt.
Yes, in a generation or two, this may be no more lethal to us than the seasonal flu. But that's no help now, when we need it.

People worry about it mutating, But it hasn't yet,
That's untrue, there are two strains already, known as the "L strain" and the "S strain." Virologists are concerned that this could hamper vaccine efforts. Also, the virus undergoes several mutations with every person it infects - this is how virologists use its genome to understand the spread. So far none of those random mutations have seemed to increase the lethality of the virus, but that could change at any moment - maybe tomorrow, maybe next century.

And if it doesn't then we will fully defeat this virus within five years.
If by "defeat" you mean "the virus will infect everyone on the planet within the next five years so outbreaks will be less common and less severe," then we agree.

I will grant you, In third world countries, This is going to be bad. Just as bad as you guys think, Yes.
I can't even pretend it won't be. It will.
The numbers already prove that the worst-case scenario is playing out here in the US, so our "first world" status is not protecting us, at all.

The flu is a coronavirus, The family you are thinking of is the Sars and MERS coronaviruses bro.
Nope. They all have a similar visual appearance (reminiscent of how different varieties of pollen look similar to one another) but influenza viruses belong to the family Orthomyxoviridae, and coronaviruses belong to the family Coronaviridae. So the influenza virus is not a coronavirus. Dr. Guido Vanham, a Belgian virologist, put it this way:

"It is a completely different virus from the Influenza viruses which belong to a very different group, meaning that flu vaccine or flu medication will not help. For now, we have no medication or vaccine for the virus. The genetic structure of this virus and a flu virus are as different as we are from dinosaurs."
A virology expert answers key questions on COVID-19

Here's what another virologist, Dr. Kurt Williamson, has to say about it:

"How do coronaviruses differ from, say, flu or cold viruses?

All three are what we would call RNA viruses (their genomes are made of RNA, not DNA) and all three are respiratory viruses. But all three are distinct in terms of their genetics, how the particles are put together and in the severity of disease that they can cause"
A coronavirus Q&A with a virologist | William & Mary

Here's a breakdown of viral taxonomy: https://watermark.silverchair.com/2...jXdVJ7MnBVfrqtVkWZxsECmxrAzxq3m_5T4OE5FTuYjgf
 

pepe

Celestial
Couldn't have put it better myself if I could have put it so well in the first place.

Very impressed with that information and worth the mention.

If everyone read that Thomas, you would save many a covidiot life form.
 

AD1184

Celestial
my secret terrius episode 10 recap - Google Search

Oof!.....

While wrong about mortality Rate this show did call it.... Get your Conspiracy Hat's out Fellers...
This series is South Korean. South Korea had a fairly serious outbreak of MERS (another coronavirus explicitly mentioned in the dialogue, with a higher mortality rate than either SARS1 or SARS2) in 2015. This likely influenced the writers of the programme.

2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in South Korea - Wikipedia

The SARS epidemic of 2003 also had a lasting effect upon the east Asian psyche.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
@Brother Thomas, A little pessimistic and fearful. One can feel the negativity in your words.
I am doing well to hold myself together as it is. I'll be back once everyone calms from the fear.
Who can live comfortably in an environment of fear? All it does is breed discord

When Times Improve I will return. I am a positive person, As such, I become a target in a negative environment. I have faith that we will all mostly be safe. And I will return once the fear and agitations subside.

Even if, Everyone was right, Truly? What does a man benefit from within a negative atmosphere? Think about it, If we are all really gonna die, And times are gonna get that bad, What comfort can be found in a place where everyone is screaming about the end is coming?

Negative and Positive. If we look in our hearts, We all know the truth, The truth is, In a few months when I return, We will all be here to talk about it. But A coronavirus Is, in fact, called such because of its crown, I've fussed more today than I have in some time, That life is behind me, I avoid conflict, I am past that prideful person who must always be correct.

So I simply don't wish to argue points right now, Everone is entitled to their views without having to go on a three-day campaign to explain why they feel the way they do.

When people calm down, I will return, Till then, This environment is becoming toxic with fear. I don't want it.
 
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nivek

As Above So Below
What does a man benefit from within a negative atmosphere?

I don't know how you can see that at all if you're referring to this thread, I think this is a most positive thread sharing Vital Information amongst each other, which promotes Unity over all else including any personal fears we might have...

...
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I don't know how you can see that at all if you're referring to this thread, I think this is a most positive thread sharing Vital Information amongst each other, which promotes Unity over all else including any personal fears we might have...

Fear and negativity are Toxic man, There is no way to make that a positive thing, I don't seek it, I don't want it. I will be back when things calm down. , People are so fearful they don't see the discord, I don't seek discord, That's as simple as I can make this. Discord does no one any good.

I'm not leaving my friends, I'm only avoiding the discord. I will be back
 
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AD1184

Celestial
Fear and negativity are Toxic man, There is no way to make that a positive thing, I don't see it, I don't want it. I will be back when things calm down. , People are so fearful they don't see the discord, I don't seek discord, That's as simple as I can make this. Discord does no one any good.
Fear can keep you alive in times of danger. We live in dangerous times.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
Fear can keep you alive in times of danger. We live in dangerous times.
No your are right, but people forget, I am a bipolar man that has great difficulty processing normal emotions,

I am not accusing people of being wrong, This is beyond my capability personally to process correctly. I assumed people understood that. It's a miracle I've handled this as well as I have.


When things get emotional, I tend to get confused. It's how my mind works... I know things are Scary, And Terrifying, I understand that because that is logical, That doesn't mean I understand those emotions though and that I'm able to truly reply properly to them. It's complicated

Just Know I understand what Friendship and caring, Is, I have that for you guys All of you.


Nivek would know best of all, Every time he has seen me get emotional, He ahs saw me becomes confused and angry, I can't process certain emotions, I possess a high intellect, but that doesn't change that My mind is imperfect and incapable of certain things.

The sad truth is, If people started dying at mass, I wouldn't feel fear or sadness. Not like normal people would, I'm not capable of that. I have panic attacks, Not because I feel fear, but because I feel emotions that I can't process. No one is perfect, And I am least of all.
 
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Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I would have edited the typos out, but My time ran out, I've got so much going on right now and i didn't notice them till it was too late.
 
@Brother Thomas, A little pessimistic and fearful. One can feel the negativity in your words.
I am doing well to hold myself together as it is. I'll be back once everyone calms from the fear.
Who can live comfortably in an environment of fear? All it does is breed discord

When Times Improve I will return. I am a positive person, As such, I become a target in a negative environment. I have faith that we will all mostly be safe. And I will return once the fear and agitations subside.

Even if, Everyone was right, Truly? What does a man benefit from within a negative atmosphere? Think about it, If we are all really gonna die, And times are gonna get that bad, What comfort can be found in a place where everyone is screaming about the end is coming?

Negative and Positive. If we look in our hearts, We all know the truth, The truth is, In a few months when I return, We will all be here to talk about it. But A coronavirus Is, in fact, called such because of its crown, I've fussed more today than I have in some time, That life is behind me, I avoid conflict, I am past that prideful person who must always be correct.

So I simply don't wish to argue points right now, Everone is entitled to their views without having to go on a three-day campaign to explain why they feel the way they do.

When people calm down, I will return, Till then, This environment is becoming toxic with fear. I don't want it.
Shadowprophet, you’re a wonderful and open-hearted guy. I’ve been striving (with limited success) to comport myself with your style of kind and amicable disposition around these forums.

But you’re mistaking your emotional reactions to what I’m saying, with what I’m actually saying. I don’t feel afraid right now because I’m consistently taking wise precautions. But I am very concerned for my fellow humans – and for good reasons.

Clear and factual understanding of the current reality is our most valuable tool for minimizing the impact of this virus on ourselves and each other as a national and global community. So that’s what I’m offering, and I provide my sources so others can check the facts for themselves.

However nobody’s best interest is served by raising false hopes and offering flawed arguments. An analogy might be useful here:

Imagine that we have to cross a pit of snakes to make it home to safety. You could try to make us feel better by saying “most of these snakes aren’t even poisonous, and by the time we reach the other side we can come up with an anti-venom, so don’t worry; everything’s going to be fine.” Or you could arm us with knowledge and say “there are six rattlesnakes, two black mambas, and a cobra over there, and the rest are harmless garden snakes – steer clear of the mambas because if those bite you then you’ll be dead before you reach the other side, and the cobra has a 6ft striking range so give that one a wide berth, and the rattlesnakes will shake their tails if you get too close so slowly back away if they get agitated.” The second type of response is far more likely to help you reach the other side unscathed.

So that’s the option I choose. Sure, I get a little snippy when you raise false hopes – but that’s because we all need to see the situation clearly in order to navigate it effectively, and people with false hopes are more likely to endanger themselves and others.

You shouldn’t take it personally – I rebuke flawed arguments no matter who says them here. Because the truth is what we all need right now.

Look at the enormous scale of damage that Trump has done by choosing to say reassuring falsehoods when this thing was rapidly gaining steam – the resulting body count is blood on his hands. I refuse to take that path, because being well-informed is far more important than feeling good about this situation.

I understand that this subject freaks you out, and I have a glimmer of understanding why that is. So I sincerely suggest that you avoid the threads about this virus because this subject clearly makes you anxious. But the rest of us want the cold hard truth about this, and we’d rather hash it all out and deal with the discomfort, than handle the subject with kid gloves and end up stumbling into a black mamba on the way home.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
Shadowprophet, you’re a wonderful and open-hearted guy. I’ve been striving (with limited success) to comport myself with your style of kind and amicable disposition around these forums.

But you’re mistaking your emotional reactions to what I’m saying, with what I’m actually saying. I don’t feel afraid right now because I’m consistently taking wise precautions. But I am very concerned for my fellow humans – and for good reasons.

Clear and factual understanding of the current reality is our most valuable tool for minimizing the impact of this virus on ourselves and each other as a national and global community. So that’s what I’m offering, and I provide my sources so others can check the facts for themselves.

However nobody’s best interest is served by raising false hopes and flawed arguments. An analogy might be useful here:

Imagine that we have to cross a pit of snakes to make it home to safety. You could try to make us feel better by saying “most of these snakes aren’t even poisonous, and by the time we reach the other side we can come up with an anti-venom, so don’t worry; everything’s going to be fine.” Or you could arm us with knowledge and say “there are six rattlesnakes, two black mambas, and a cobra over there, and the rest are harmless garden snakes – steer clear of the mambas because if those bite you then you’ll be dead before you reach the other side, and the cobra has a 6ft striking range so give that one a wide berth, and the rattlesnakes will shake their tails if you get too close so slowly back away if they get agitated.” The second type of response is far more likely to help you reach the other side unscathed.

So that’s the option I choose. Sure, I get a little snippy when you raise false hopes – but that’s because we all need to see the situation clearly in order to navigate it effectively, and people with false hopes are more likely to endanger themselves and others.

You shouldn’t take it personally – I rebuke flawed arguments no matter who says them here. Because the truth is what we all need right now.

Look at the enormous scale of damage that trump; has done by choosing to say reassuring falsehoods when this thing was rapidly gaining steam – the resulting body count is blood on his hands. I refuse to take that path, because being well-informed is far more important than feeling good about this situation.

I understand that this subject freaks you out, and I have a glimmer of understanding why that is. So I sincerely suggest that you avoid the threads about this virus because this subject clearly makes you anxious. But the rest of us want the cold hard truth about this, and we’d rather hash it all out and deal with the discomfort, than handle the subject with kid gloves and end up stumbling into a black mamba on the way home.

It's okay brother Thomas, I look up to guys, But you guys should know, There are certain things, I can pretend to understand, But I would only be pretending or emulating. I have emotional problems, And by this. I mean, I can't process feelings as most people do. It's been this way my whole life, I can fit in with people and show them how intelligent I can be. But I am not able to process certain emotions, Fear and panic especially are emotions I can't handle because Well, I've always had issues processing them, Maybe it's childhood trauma or something. But I promise, There are people around who have seen me break down and have episodes just because I can't process certain feelings.

Feelings that I should be able to process, But I just don't possess an understanding of them. It's weird, But I'm not a sociopath or a psychopath. It's more like, Maybe something that happened as a kid. Just rejects those emotions or something it triggers a type of Rejection in my mind. It's difficult to explain.

Know that We are all intelligent here. I run away Not because of wrongs. I leave before I disgrace myself. I am having bipolar episodes, These are very difficult times to process.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I will give you guys this, My dad just called, Literally everyone everywhere is panicking. It is not unique to here. I don't know if I'm blessed or cursed to not feel that panic right now, But I do know it is accurate and justified.
 

AlienView

Noble
Great idea: let's ignore all of the empirical data demonstrating that widespread home quarantining is the only known effective measure for impeding the spread of the virus and saving lives...and spit-ball some improbable and complex unproven ideas and try them out on the public at large so we can preserve the broken and draconian system of corporate domination of the world...and if a few million people have to suffocate to death on their own blood plasma along the way when it doesn't work out so well, so be it. After all, the Nazi experiments on Jews may have been unconscionable and morally revolting - but we learned a lot of useful medical data that way, right? /end sarcasm

The current economic infrastructure isn't worth saving; we have a global cabal of plutocrats gang-raping the working class all around the globe, and their sociopathic obsession with their insatiable greed is the reason why we weren't prepared for this horrific pandemic, and let it spread like wildfire throughout our world at the key moment when we could've acted and saved millions of human lives. The whole system needs to burn to the ground so we can build a better world

WOW!!! And you call me a sociopath - Well psycho you should know.

Ranting and raving about ending Civilization so you and whatever group you represent can install a very dark New World Order.

Now do you see why people don't trust Socialists whether Nazis, Communists or just old fashioned
psychopathic criminals with their own 'we' will save you agenda.

As you say Thomas R. Morrison:
"After all, the Nazi experiments on Jews may have been unconscionable and morally revolting - but we learned a lot of useful medical data that way, right? /end sarcasm"
AND WE LEARNED NOT TO TRUST SOCIALISTS OUT TO SAVE THE WORLD BY DESTROYING IT FIRST
- FACT, NOT SARCASM!

No 'Thomas R. Morrison' or who or whatever you really are:

"
You can fool all the people some of the time,
and some of the people all the time,
but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

- Abraham Lincoln
 
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Ron67

Ignorance isn’t bliss!
WOW!!! And you call me a sociopath - Well psycho you should know.

Ranting and raving about ending Civilization so you and whatever group you represent can install a very dark New World Order.

Now do you see why people don't trust Socialists whether Nazis, Communists or just old fashioned
psychopathic criminals with their own 'we' will save you agenda.

As you say Thomas R. Morrison:
"After all, the Nazi experiments on Jews may have been unconscionable and morally revolting - but we learned a lot of useful medical data that way, right? /end sarcasm"
AND WE LEARNED NOT TO TRUST SOCIALISTS OUT TO SAVE THE WORLD BY DESTROYING IT FIRST
- FACT, NOT SARCASM!

No 'Thomas R. Morrison' or who or whatever you really are:

"
You can fool all the people some of the time,
and some of the people all the time,
but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

- Abraham Lincoln
Thomas R Morrison or Thomas R Morrison as he is really known does not need me to defend him.He doesn’t rant,he does deal in facts.You should try doing this yourself.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
This kind of recklessness dooms thousands...

...

Ruby Princess passenger skips quarantine to continue her round-the-world trip before coming down with coronavirus symptoms - and she could have infected thousands of people

British woman Coral Guise-Smith( bottom left), 65, travelled to Australia for the cruise of a lifetime which left Sydney's Circular Quay on Sunday, March 8 to sail across the Tasman Sea and stop at Wellington and Napier on New Zealand's North Island. The Ruby Princess arrived back in Sydney Harbour on Thursday, March 19, where all 2,700 passengers spilled onto the city streets without being tested for coronavirus but with instructions to immediately self-isolate at home or in a hotel room for 14 days. Despite complaining of aches, pains and a 'shocking headache', Ms Guise-Smith (right) flew 18,447km from Sydney to London and on to her home in southeastern Spain in defiance of global measures aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19. The revelation comes as Australia's confirmed cases jumped to 3,050 on Friday after the nationwide d.

26469236-0-image-m-1_1585355291533.jpg
 
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