Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek

As Above So Below
Hundreds of churchgoers in Louisiana IGNORE ban on gatherings as state cases rise by 225 to 3,540 overnight and governor warns healthcare system will be overwhelmed

Hundreds of people flouted Louisiana's COVID-19 ban on gatherings, coming on buses and in personal vehicles to the first of three Sunday services at their church a day after New Orleans police broke up a funeral gathering of about 100 people. An estimated 500 people of all ages filed inside the mustard-yellow and beige Life Tabernacle church in Central, a city of nearly 29,000 outside Baton Rouge. More than 3,500 Louisiana residents have been diagnosed with the disease caused by a new coronavirus, and 151 people have died, according to state figures released Sunday.

The church's pastor, Tony Spell (bottom right), defied an order from Gov John Bel Edwards who banned mass gatherings in the state where more than 3,500 Louisiana residents have been diagnosed with the disease caused by the coronavirus, and 151 people have died, according to figures released Sunday. Edwards repeated on Sunday's national news talk shows what he's been saying for days: the state's hospitals may become overwhelmed due to rise in cases in New Orleans. Hospitals in the city are likely to run out of ventilators by April 4 and of hospital bed space by April 10.


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nivek

As Above So Below
Australians face fines of up to $13,000 for 'gathering' with more than ONE other person from today as virus shutdown tightens - and we are told there are now only four excuses for leaving home

Australians could be fined $11,000 or be thrown in jail if they are seen outside in the groups of three or more. Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the tightening of social isolation measures on Sunday to further slow the spread of coronavirus, as early figures show the shutdown was working effectively to slow the rate of increase in COVID-19 infections. Amid the new restrictions, playgrounds will be closed from Monday and outside group exercise of more than two people was banned.

The Prime Minister said the only reasons for people to leave the home were:

  • shopping for essential items,
  • seeking medical care and supplies,
  • exercising alone or with one companion,
  • and to go to work or attend school but then only when there was not the option to do so from home.
He also instructed people over 70 to remain in their homes full-time until restrictions were lifted.

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nivek

As Above So Below
Spain announces record 838 virus deaths in 24 hours

MADRID, Spain — Spain confirmed another 838 deaths in 24 hours from coronavirus on Sunday, a new daily record bringing the total number of deaths to 6,528, according to health ministry figures. The number of confirmed cases in Spain has now reached 78,797 — after the one-day increase of 9.1 percent — as the country battles the world's second most deadly outbreak after Italy. Except for a brief lull recorded on Thursday, Spain's death toll has been rising daily. However, officials have pointed to a slower growth rate for both deaths and confirmed cases and expressed hope that the peak of the outbreak was approaching.

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nivek

As Above So Below
Here's a couple maps showing the extent of the infections and concentrations...

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Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
That's how the Nazis thought. You should be ashamed - and if you're not, then you're a sociopath.

Yeah, it's not my opinion, it's opinion I heard from one surprisingly mild mannered army officer, who actually sacrificed his own life so that younger officers can live on. His opinion stunned me, as well. I guess when one goes through military academy he gets to accept death and trauma as unavoidable in times of suffering. That's exactly what officer's job is, minimizing the damage, without avoiding it. Most likely large number of military officers everywhere in the world see things like that.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
US map does show that warmer states have less cases, even when they are densely populated like Florida. That might mean that with warmer weather epidemic will ease a bit.
I hope so, I worry immediately about the current pandemic, But if this doesn't resolve, We will have this happen next year as well. :(
 
Here’s a chart that shows the impact of our social distancing and disinfection measures. Last week the rate of growth for the official number of coronavirus infections was 12 cases for each patient today, 8 days down the road. Today that number is less than half of that: 6 official cases 8 days later for every patient today, and the trend is still downward. This means that at the current growth rate, in 24 days the US will have roughly 30 million official cases instead of 243 million cases – our actions have spared over 200 million Americans from contracting the virus in the next 24 days. At a fatality rate of 1% that’s 2 million lives saved.

In the last 5 days we’ve seen the 8-day growth rate drop from 12.89 to 5.73 – if we can maintain this rate of decline then the number of cases will peak by this weekend and then begin to drop one week from today. That’s an optimistic projection, but it shows that we can turn this around faster than most of us realize if we all do our part.

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nivek

As Above So Below
This study suggests the virus is also possibly airborne which could explain why it seems to spread so quickly...

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Coronavirus could be airborne, study suggests

It may be possible for the novel coronavirus to transmit through the air, a new study released over the weekend suggests.

In a joint study by the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC), the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska and others, researchers found genetic material from the virus that causes COVID-19 in air samples from both in and outside of confirmed coronavirus patients’ rooms. The findings offer “limited evidence that some potential for airborne transmission exists," researchers said, though they warned that the findings do not confirm airborne spread.


Researchers, looking to better understand viral shedding and how it related to the novel virus, took air and surface samples from 11 patients’ rooms during the initial isolation of 13 people who tested positive for COVID-19. The researchers found virus genetic material on commonly used items such as toilets, but also in air samples, thus indicating that “SARS-CoV-2 is widely disseminated in the environment.” SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus that causes COVID-19.

Not only was the virus detected within COVID-19 patients’ rooms, “air samplers from hallways outside of rooms where [the] staff was moving in and out of doors were also positive,” they wrote.

“These findings indicate that disease might be spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and airborne transmission) and suggests airborne isolation precautions could be appropriate,” they concluded, noting that the findings also suggest that COVID-19 patients, even those who are only mildly ill, “may create aerosols of virus and contaminate surfaces that may pose a risk for transmission.”

The study’s authors also said that the results underscore the importance of personal protective equipment or PPEs, and the use of negative air pressure rooms for confirmed COVID-19 patients.

(more on the link)

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The number of new cases is growing each day, although slightly slower in pace, but still growing in numbers each day...
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Of course, but that's not what I'm tracking because the first glimpse of the light at the end of this very long and dark tunnel won't be seen in a dropping number of cases per day, but rather in the changing rate of growth of cases. And that change in the rate of growth first appeared in the data only a few days ago - the first sign that our countermeasures have been working (they've actually been working quite well for about 14 days now, but the data lags the daily reality by about 10 days so we've only just begun to see the fruits of our efforts).

It's a pretty dramatic change - a week ago the number of cases was multiplying by a factor of 12.89 every 8 days...chilling. But that rate of growth has dropped to a growth multiplier of 5.73 every 8 days, over the last five days as seen in the CDC data, and it still appears to be dropping further. If that rate of decline continues for 5 more days, this thing will peak, and then the case numbers will start to decline in the US for the first time since this all started. That's an overly optimistic hope at this point, but it shows that we've made big strides against this outbreak, and a reversal could be much closer than we've dared to hope.

The next few weeks are going to be awful - there's nothing we can do about that because this got too far out of control before our country started to fight back. But there's a significant shift in momentum seen in the data right now, and the tides could turn the other way while we're going through the worst of it over the next few weeks.

We've made it more than halfway between where we were last week, and where we need to be: at a growth rate of less than 1.

In raw numbers this means that we've saved 200 million people from becoming infected over the next 24 days, which at a 1% fatality rate mean that we've spared 2 million American lives that otherwise would've been lost by the end of May.

So it's working. We just need to keep fighting back through social distancing and disinfection measures.

Here's the leading indicator that we're starting to turn this thing around - we've begun to flatten the curve of daily new cases:

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Here's the 8-Day Growth Factor in graphical form. The y-axis indicates the multiplication factor of the number of official cases on that day, compared to eight days earlier. It peaked on March 9th when the number of official cases that day was 21.57 times higher than it was eight days earlier, on March 1st.

It's on a down trend due to our social distancing and disinfection measures, and if we can get it down to a factor of 1 (the red line) then we'll have stopped its growth in the US. When we get it under 1, the number of cases will be dropping each day.

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Yeah, it's not my opinion, it's opinion I heard from one surprisingly mild mannered army officer, who actually sacrificed his own life so that younger officers can live on. His opinion stunned me, as well. I guess when one goes through military academy he gets to accept death and trauma as unavoidable in times of suffering. That's exactly what officer's job is, minimizing the damage, without avoiding it. Most likely large number of military officers everywhere in the world see things like that.
Yes - all militaries have to train/condition soldiers to devalue the lives of the adversary so they can commit mass murder on behalf of The State without losing their marbles. I still remember how my surrogate father when I was growing up would casually dehumanize the Viet Cong after serving as a medic in the Vietnam war. The way that soldiers are programmed by the military is a lot like the way an attack dog can be trained with "split personality" to ravage intruders and yet be cuddly as a kitten with the family kids - it's a deeply unnatural and morally bankrupt mentality to inflict upon a human mind.

Devaluing the lives of other humans is not a virtue. The innate regard for the value of human lives is the central feature of our humanity - if we survive as a species that will be the reason why. That empathy is even hard-wired into our brains in the form of mirror neurons, which make us yawn when others yawn. Interestingly, true biological sociopaths don't have that response, which is one of the ways you can identify them.
 
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