Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

If the current rate of decline in the growth rate of new cases holds over the following six days of data, then we could see the last new case as early as April 4th (see below) - that's an overly optimistic projection because it's more likely to trail off more gradually in the coming days, but it's a hopeful sign that we can turn this battle around surprisingly soon:

Coronavirus Growth Rate Graph.March 2020.projection.jpg
 

pepe

Celestial
Yes this ick has to keep moving forward or its done. We have two of the three occurences on our side and stopping it just takes a bit longer and I reckon we are seeing that commencing.

Just don't let the guard down.
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Yes - all militaries have to train/condition soldiers to devalue the lives of the adversary so they can commit mass murder on behalf of The State without losing their marbles. I still remember how my surrogate father when I was growing up would casually dehumanize the Viet Cong after serving as a medic in the Vietnam war. The way that soldiers are programmed by the military is a lot like the way an attack dog can be trained with "split personality" to ravage intruders and yet be cuddly as a kitten with the family kids - it's a deeply unnatural and morally bankrupt mentality to inflict upon a human mind.

Yeah, what I was talking about here is that soldier are "programmed", as you say, to devalue even lives of their own people during particularly hard times, not just enemies. For soldiers it is all about damage control, rather that saving the lives of individuals. I guess it's just a type of mindset I wasn't able to imagine to exist.
 
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Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Mass in Poland where people pray for Coronavirus to stop. I am sure they are doing from love for the others, so my respect to them, but for me this is the second most shocking image of the epidemic after that image of the bat in the soup from Wuhan.

Graphic_29_03_2020 12_08_23.jpg
 
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AD1184

Celestial
nostra.jpg
Cite the original source. Not a meme graphic.
 

AD1184

Celestial
This study suggests the virus is also possibly airborne which could explain why it seems to spread so quickly...

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Coronavirus could be airborne, study suggests

It may be possible for the novel coronavirus to transmit through the air, a new study released over the weekend suggests.

In a joint study by the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC), the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska and others, researchers found genetic material from the virus that causes COVID-19 in air samples from both in and outside of confirmed coronavirus patients’ rooms. The findings offer “limited evidence that some potential for airborne transmission exists," researchers said, though they warned that the findings do not confirm airborne spread.


Researchers, looking to better understand viral shedding and how it related to the novel virus, took air and surface samples from 11 patients’ rooms during the initial isolation of 13 people who tested positive for COVID-19. The researchers found virus genetic material on commonly used items such as toilets, but also in air samples, thus indicating that “SARS-CoV-2 is widely disseminated in the environment.” SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus that causes COVID-19.

Not only was the virus detected within COVID-19 patients’ rooms, “air samplers from hallways outside of rooms where [the] staff was moving in and out of doors were also positive,” they wrote.

“These findings indicate that disease might be spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and airborne transmission) and suggests airborne isolation precautions could be appropriate,” they concluded, noting that the findings also suggest that COVID-19 patients, even those who are only mildly ill, “may create aerosols of virus and contaminate surfaces that may pose a risk for transmission.”

The study’s authors also said that the results underscore the importance of personal protective equipment or PPEs, and the use of negative air pressure rooms for confirmed COVID-19 patients.

(more on the link)

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Health authorities in the west (and the WHO, for that matter), seem to have abandoned the precautionary principle in this pandemic. They will only change the advice to the public in keeping safe if it is absolutely proven that there could be a greater danger than the current advice accounts for. Rather than just assuming there is, for the sake of public safety. I make the assumption that the research that shows the greatest danger is correct and act accordingly. It may later be shown to be overly cautious, but I am at least less likely to be infected if it is shown later that official advice is too lax.
 

nivek

As Above So Below

nivek

As Above So Below
Health authorities in the west (and the WHO, for that matter), seem to have abandoned the precautionary principle in this pandemic. They will only change the advice to the public in keeping safe if it is absolutely proven that there could be a greater danger than the current advice accounts for. Rather than just assuming there is, for the sake of public safety. I make the assumption that the research that shows the greatest danger is correct and act accordingly. It may later be shown to be overly cautious, but I am at least less likely to be infected if it is shown later that official advice is too lax.

In this we are the same, I would assume the worst case scenario in a crisis in general, acting accordingly, and in this virus crisis we are dealing with I am doing doing just that...The new norm for me, using a respirator and wearing skin-tight goggles and gloves in order to buy groceries, who would have thought, thanks China...

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nivek

As Above So Below
America's deadliest day to date: Coronavirus death toll soars to 3,180 - an increase of 605 with a person dying every TWO MINUTES - as 22,000 new infections are recorded and experts say the worst is yet to come

The US death toll from the coronavirus pandemic climbed past 3,000 on Monday, making the outbreak more deadly than the September 11 terrorist attacks that killed 2,977, and health experts are warning the worst is yet to come. Total deaths across the United States increased by at least 605 on Monday, reaching a total of 3,180. It meant someone died every two minutes from the deadly disease. There were 22,022 new cases which brings the total to 164,671. The amount the daily deaths increases and will continue to rise until the pandemic hits its peak in America which is still weeks away.

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America's deadliest day to date: Coronavirus death toll soars to 3,180 - an increase of 605 with a person dying every TWO MINUTES - as 22,000 new infections are recorded and experts say the worst is yet to come

The US death toll from the coronavirus pandemic climbed past 3,000 on Monday, making the outbreak more deadly than the September 11 terrorist attacks that killed 2,977, and health experts are warning the worst is yet to come. Total deaths across the United States increased by at least 605 on Monday, reaching a total of 3,180. It meant someone died every two minutes from the deadly disease. There were 22,022 new cases which brings the total to 164,671. The amount the daily deaths increases and will continue to rise until the pandemic hits its peak in America which is still weeks away.
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It's hard to see this in the daily numbers, because they're still going up. But the rate at which the volume of cases is increasing has been dropping steeply for a week now, and I see no reason to expect that downward trend to change. At this point it looks like we could see the number of active cases in the US to peak by this weekend (or at least sometime next week), and after that I expect the number of active cases to start dropping each day. Here's what the leading indicator - the rate of growth - looks like now. When the blue line reaches the red line, this epidemic will have peaked in the US:

Coronavirus Growth Rate Graph.March 30 2020.Composite.jpg
 

The shadow

The shadow knows!
It's hard to see this in the daily numbers, because they're still going up. But the rate at which the volume of cases is increasing has been dropping steeply for a week now, and I see no reason to expect that downward trend to change. At this point it looks like we could see the number of active cases in the US to peak by this weekend (or at least sometime next week), and after that I expect the number of active cases to start dropping each day. Here's what the leading indicator - the rate of growth - looks like now. When the blue line reaches the red line, this epidemic will have peaked in the US:

View attachment 9348
Thomas you are one of the few I really respect..I hope you are right.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I think my biggest issue right now is the government won't shut down, We have a virus killing people, Estimates that possibly a million people could die,

And the government sites things like essential front line workers and American pride is worth all this death.

It's like retardation is running the country, It feels worse than Rage, It feels like harassment Because I'm potentially exposed to this because Sam gets out and works.

It's like a gun pointed at my head every time she comes home. I hate this so much, I don't know if anyone understands the kind of stress families who are put under this essential worker act go through. It really does feel like an intentional attack. I'm angry and Scared. And mad at this Dumbass American pride that refuses to shut down in the face of death, What is fucking American pride worth if everybody dies? I swear on everything, If I catch this, I will blame the united states Government From my death bed :mad8:

And you guys know, I'm a fucking hermit, I should have been the safest person on the planet from this. But no.


It's almost like the government is orchestrating the whole thing so everyone does intentionally catch this.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
At this point it looks like we could see the number of active cases in the US to peak by this weekend (or at least sometime next week), and after that I expect the number of active cases to start dropping each day.

I don't know, it all sounds good, but I'm seeing reports and models projecting a peak around April 15th to the 2nd with American deaths running at 2000-2500 minimum per day...We are already over 700 deaths just for today and we still have less than 3 hours until midnight GMT+0 which is when the next day of counting begins...Its likely we will have close to 800 deaths today and on track for that estimated over 2000 body count...I wish I had more of your optimism, but at this point I am going to act as if worse case is up on the horizon heading our way and I don't want to sound like a doomsayer because I still have much optimism for a leveling off and quick end to this crisis, but I don't see it yet...

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nivek

As Above So Below
'Prepare for 100,000 to die': Tony Fauci warns of astonishing death toll and tells areas not on lockdown to take action NOW - as Donald Trump says next two weeks will be 'VERY painful' and White House reveals even worse projections

Dr. Tony Fauci warned on Tuesday that Americans should be prepared for 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus.

'The answer is yes - as sobering a number as that is, we should be prepared for it,' he said when asked about the six-figure mark during the daily White House press briefing. 'Is it going to be that much? I hope not and I think the more we push on the mitigation the less likely to be that number but, being realistic, we need to prepare ourselves that is a possibility that that's what we'll see.'

The White House projected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. if current social distancing guidelines are maintained.

'Whenever you’re having an effect, it’s not time to take your foot off the accelerator, and on the brake, but to just press it down on the accelerator,' Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said of mitigation efforts. President Donald Trump said the prediction was 'sobering' and called efforts to spread the slow of the coronavirus 'a matter of life and death.'

'It's absolutely critical for the American people to follow the guidelines for the next 30 days, it's a matter of life and death, frankly,' the president said.

'I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going through a very tough few weeks. And, hopefully, as the experts have predicted is a lot of us are predicting having studied it so hard, going to start seeing some real light at the end of the tunnel and this is going to be a very painful, a very very painful two weeks,' he noted.

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