Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

USS Theodore Roosevelt WILL evacuate and quarantine its 4,000 crew on Guam after unprecedented plea by captain of the aircraft carrier that sailors could die as coronavirus cases QUADRUPLE on board

The 4,000 sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt are to be evacuated from the nuclear warship a week after at least 25 positive cases of coronavirus were identified on board and the ship was forced to dock in Guam. Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Tuesday that the Navy is working with the captain of the ship, its medical officer and the government in Guam to bring the sailors to shore as quickly as possible but there currently not enough beds available.

The announcement came after a letter from the ship's captain Brett Crozier pleaded with the Pentagon to let the bulk of its 4,000-person crew off the warship so they can quarantine safely, warning that 'sailors do not need to die'. The Navy is now working to identify sailors who are clear of coronavirus who will be able to maintain the ship's functions while the rest of the crew are taken into quarantine, as officials battle to ensure the United States is protected while also protecting the safety of its personnel.

UN chief Antonio Guterres says coronavirus is biggest global threat since WWII as cases hit 850,000 and deaths soar towards 42,000

On Tuesday, UN chief Antonio Guterres said there is a risk the coronavirus crisis will contribute to 'enhanced instability, enhanced unrest, and enhanced conflict.' Guterres called for a stronger and more effective global response to the pandemic, as cases hit 846,156 with 41,494 deaths. He stressed that this will only be possible 'if everybody comes together and if we forget political games and understand that it is humankind that is at stake.' The coronavirus is continuing to wreak havoc around the world, with several countries reporting huge rises in cases. Pictured are graves in Brazil (top left), people being tested in Israel (top right), the army on the streets in Spain (bottom left) and masked workers making protective equipment in Bangladesh (bottom right).

Chaos in India as hundreds of thousands try to get home in the wake of coronavirus shutdown: People are squashed together as they flee cities, sparking mass infection fears

The announcement of a country-wide shutdown in India last week has caused millions of migrant workers to flee major cities, resulting in huge crowds risking coronavirus infection.

The unprecedented 21-day lockdown, which in terms of people is larger than the one seen in China earlier in the year, gave the 1.3 billion citizens less than four hours to prepare, throwing the country into chaos.

With no way to make money, migrant workers who moved to India's bigger cities from villages to make a living are now desperately trying to return home. This scramble caused huge crowds to form at bus stations, captured in these videos and photographs.

In his address to the nation, Modi said: 'Forget about leaving home for the next 21 days. If you cross the threshold of your house, you will invite the virus home.' He reassured his citizens that essential services would continue, but was not clear about how people could buy food and other essential goods.

This lack of assurance and security caused a rush on the shops with people seen lining the streets late into the night to get food. Others were desperate to get out of the cities and back to their rural homes where they can be with their family and away from the larger population hubs which have incredibly high population densities.

nivek said:

I don't know, it all sounds good, but I'm seeing reports and models projecting a peak around April 15th to the 2nd with American deaths running at 2000-2500 minimum per day...We are already over 700 deaths just for today and we still have less than 3 hours until midnight GMT+0 which is when the next day of counting begins...Its likely we will have close to 800 deaths today and on track for that estimated over 2000 body count...I wish I had more of your optimism, but at this point I am going to act as if worse case is up on the horizon heading our way and I don't want to sound like a doomsayer because I still have much optimism for a leveling off and quick end to this crisis, but I don't see it yet...
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You're not going to see it in the daily case numbers; those are still rising, and the virus has spread so far already that the daily increases are numerically huge. And the death tolls are the trailing indicator, so those are going to keep rising for weeks.

What I've been showing you is the leading indicator: the driving force behind the daily numbers - the rate of increase of active cases. You can't see that directly; it has to be calculated. That's why I made a graph - that shows you what's really going on behind the scenes, on the front lines of this battle.

Look at it this way: think of the virus as an invading army. On March 9th that invading army was racing forward toward our capital city - over the course of eight days it had pushed forward 21.57 times further than it had progressed all the way up to eight days previous to that date. But then it slowed down (because of our national sequestration and disinfection protocols), so by March 21st it only progressed 12.96 times further than it had gotten eight days earlier. Then the rate of encroachment suddenly plummeted even further over the course of the past week, so today it has only progressed 4.9 times as far as it had progressed eight days earlier. Right now it's advancing at only 22.7% the rate that it was advancing at the peak on March 9th. And the trend is still continuing downward - at this point it only has to drop from 4.9 to 1 and then this epidemic in the US will have peaked. And as the number falls below 1, the number of active cases will begin to drop each day.

The death rate trails the number of active cases by about 2+ weeks, so that's going to be the last number to drop. So yes, the next few weeks are going to get really fugly. We'll be in the paradoxical phase of this crisis where we're finally turning this damn thing around - seeing the number of active cases dropping at last...but at the same time we'll be seeing the highest number of daily deaths.

That's just the lag between the leading indicator - the rate of increase, and the trailing indicator - the mortalities.

I'm sharing my findings now so that we can all understand that we're actually winning this battle, even when the situation reaches its deepest darkness and thousands of people are dying every day. We can see the light at the end of this tunnel right now...but we're going to see the worst of this playing out even as we're coming out the other side of this.

The first independent confirmation that I've seen about the downward trend that I've been tracking appeared today on The Hill's podcast today with Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti:

I watched the daily briefing yesterday. Went on for quite some time. It was coherent and informative if you took the time to actually listen. What I heard almost immediately afterwards coming out of the news sphincters had me wondering if they saw the same thing I did.

Like light passing through a prism - goes in one way and comes out in slices useful to whoever wants to make their point.

nivek said:

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I never realized how big these carriers actually are. People are just dots on the deck.

Dejan Corovic said:

I never realized how big these carriers actually are. People are just dots on the deck.

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I was in a wedding many years ago and one of the other groomsmen was an officer aboard the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. Got a tour that most don't. It was docked on Norfolk so no planes aboard. I remember consoles with roller ball controllers that looked exactly like Missile Command, that the arresting cables on deck were as thick as the calf of my leg, and that when his little daughter peed and made a mess on the floor he whipped out a mop from somewhere so quickly and took care of it that like that happened all the time. Maybe it does. If you'r ever in Norfolk also sitting there is the USS Wisconsin - something else that will cause you to recalibrate your Big-o-mometer.

There is not really one big US epidemic, but many. Just as there is not really one big global epidemic, and the disease takes a different course in each country. Currently the American figures are dominated by the New York epidemic. Just as earlier in the year, the figures for China and the world were dominated by the Wuhan epidemic. Any country-wide projection needs to consider the sum of disease trajectories in all US epidemics. Hopefully a near-universal lockdown causes many to die out before they go very far.

U.S. coronavirus death toll eclipses China's official figure as it climbs to 3,906 in just two months amid warnings it could become worse than Italy

According to MIT the safe distance from a sneezer is 8m / 24 ft:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-meters-social-distancing-mit-droplets.html

Another cat has been confirmed to have Covid-19, that makes two dogs and two cats confirmed...

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Pet cat becomes the second to test positive for coronavirus after its owner became infected in Hong Kong

A pet cat has tested positive for coronavirus in Hong Kong, in only the second such case in the world. The city's Agricultural and Fisheries department said the cat was tested after its owner was confirmed as having the virus.

It is the second cat to test positive after another feline was found to have the virus in Belgium last week. Two dogs have also tested positive, also in Hong Kong, although experts say there is no evidence that pets can spread the virus to humans

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Dejan Corovic said:

According to MIT the safe distance from a sneezer is 8m / 24 ft:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-meters-social-distancing-mit-droplets.html

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There's information on that here:

Methods to Combat the COVID-19 Coronavirus

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So this whole six-foot distancing thing does nothing then?

We got into coronavirus mess because China can't drop their habit of eating wild animals. But now it turns out that many special forces, during their training, practice eating wild animals. Here US Marines are literally drinking snake blood.

Considering the price we are paying now, it might be good idea to at least cook these snakes?

PETA Asks U.S. Marines to Stop Drinking Snake Blood During Training

Shadowprophet said:

So this whole six-foot distancing thing does nothing then?

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It works as well as the air never moving.

Shadowprophet said:

So this whole six-foot distancing thing does nothing then?

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It does not do nothing. Six feet is better than one foot. You would do well to keep an even greater distance from others, though, and avoid walking through public thoroughfares, if at all possible.

I think everyone should wear at least a facial covering when out in public, even if it is not a proper filtration mask or ventilator (which you may not have access to). Airtight goggles are the best you can do for your eyes, but even glasses will make a difference in reducing your level of risk if you do not have access to goggles and you must go out in public.

The benefits of wearing a facial covering are manifold: the respiratory droplets of those who have the disease (but who may not realize it, so are not isolating), will largely (but not completely) be contained within the covering, thus reducing their risk of infecting others.

You are likely to be more conscious of attempts to touch your own face when wearing a mask, and when you do make an attempt you will be less likely to make contact with the inside of your nose and mouth.

Any time you are exposed to projected and airborne respiratory droplets, a covering will reduce the number that might reach your mouth/nose. This reduces the amount of virus particles that you are exposed to. Many viruses induce a disease in an infected person that has a strong dependence on the number of virus particles that person was initially exposed to. You get a milder disease the fewer particles you were exposed to. This is perhaps why some younger, healthy medical workers have been killed by this virus, because their exposure is much greater than the average. So, if you get sick in spite of wearing a facial covering while in public, the disease you get could be milder than if you were not wearing a mask.

The Czech Republic has had a widespread initiative by members of its general public--which has since received government backing--to manufacture home-made masks from whatever material is available. I hope other countries can follow suit. Those Asian countries that have managed this epidemic tend to encourage mask wearing among the general public in at least some circumstances.

The only reason to discourage the wearing of masks by the general public is that they are also needed by healthcare workers. But if they were useless for the general public, then they would also be useless for healthcare workers. Western messages to discourage mask wearing are motivated by attempts to limit the competition between the medical profession and the general public for a limited supply of masks, because we have criminally short supplies of them and no industry for producing our own. It is not because masks are useless in fighting the infection when used by the public.

The competition between the public and medics can be alleviated by the use of homemade, reusable masks that are sanitized after every public use. These will not be as good as proper masks, but are better than nothing. The longest that SARS-cov-2 can survive on a surface is 9 days, so if you have nine masks, and use them in a rotation on each daily outing (which should be of limited duration, and it is even better if you do not have to go out every single day), that is better than nothing and would do something towards reducing your likelihood of getting sick and infecting others.

Shadowprophet said:

So this whole six-foot distancing thing does nothing then?

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Fauci & Birx are saying it definitely does help. Also said the MIT report of 27’ was misleading and would require deliberate effort

Documentary showing a Chinese virus researcher catching wild bats inside Hubei caves fuels conspiracy theory that the coronavirus may have originated in Wuhan's CDC

A documentary showing a Chinese virologist catching wild bats in mountains have fuelled a conspiracy theory, which suggests that the novel coronavirus may have originated in Wuhan's disease control authority. The seven-minute film features the centre's researcher Tian Junhua, who has visited dozens of caves in Hubei province to capture the flying mammal. It has sparked a fresh round of speculation over the origin of the coronavirus, with some people again suggesting that pandemic could be a man-made crisis.

Dejan Corovic said:

We got into coronavirus mess because China can't drop their habit of eating wild animals. But now it turns out that many special forces, during their training, practice eating wild animals. Here US Marines are literally drinking snake blood.

Considering the price we are paying now, it might be good idea to at least cook these snakes?

Click to expand...

I think human interactions with wildlife need to be carefully considered after this. However, are all human-wildlife interactions equal in the risk they pose to everyone else? There have been two noteworthy disease epidemics involving respiratory coronaviruses that have crossed over to humans in very similar locations: Chinese wildlife markets. We might ask if there is something about the geography, the types of animals present in these markets, or other factors that mean that dangerous zoonotic infection is very much more likely to occur in such places.

Are they only as dangerous as someone feeding ducks at a pond? Or a hunter in the United States or Europe shooting a deer, bringing the carcass home and butchering it? Or are they much more dangerous than these activities in the risk of zoonotic infection?

MERS has crossed over (multiple times) to humans from bats via domesticated dromedary camels in Saudi Arabia.