Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek

As Above So Below
Yesterday I was reading about how much Sweden is defending their style of 'combating' the virus by leaving everything open and allowing the people to social distance themselves, but their numbers of infected are climbing fast, are they not seeing this themselves?...Surely they must know given what's been occurring in other countries that the status quo will not help them...

...
 

pepe

Celestial
Well, there's stupid deeds and then there's knuckle-dragging stupid, yeah I'd say natural selection will pull through lol...



The walkways smell better too...:Whistle:

...

The Isles are much wider and an older customer base feels safer.

All very orderly and a nice experience, in fact I would like it to be like this all the time. Just pure shopping with a clinical purpose of minimising time wasting. I'm an in and out man at the best of times and the cues are ok now, one in one out with the cueing all done before hand.

I like that better than waiting on paying.
 

pepe

Celestial
Yesterday I was reading about how much Sweden is defending their style of 'combating' the virus by leaving everything open and allowing the people to social distance themselves, but their numbers of infected are climbing fast, are they not seeing this themselves?...Surely they must know given what's been occurring in other countries that the status quo will not help them...

...

Whether we have spent wisely is also yet to be seen but i'm sure glad not to be Swedish.

They have shielded the vulnerable and the rest is fair game. It might be where we all end up but to know we made the effort is important.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
I live fairly close to a large sewage works. Thankfully I live to the west of it, and we have prevailing westerly winds. However, on some nights, when the wind is in the east, there is a foul smell that descends over the area where I live. It happened on a night the other week. I had heard of the survival of SARS-Cov-2 in human waste at that point, and was rather worried.

About eight years ago, the sewer on my street also clogged due to a 'fatberg', which caused an overflow after some rainfall, and the fire brigade and sewerage maintenance people had to come out and pump the sewers. They provided some sandbags to stop it from flowing through my front door. The overflow was so bad that my neighbour's property was flooded on the ground floor (they sit slightly lower than my house). I worry that something like that might happen again during this crisis. I can't imagine that the sewers are being as well maintained at the moment, or that the response will be so swift if it does happen.

It would be disastrous if the virus can live on through sewage treatment and become waterborne in city drinking water, surely it cannot live through wastewater treatments...

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Perhaps we should be administering smell tests, it is one of the symptoms of the virus in about 60 percent of those infected, at least that's what I read, really all you need is a tangerine or an orange, if you cannot smell it, well then...

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
That number jumped cause of the new testing thats been increased. Likely the total infections might be 20-30 times the official numbers since we dont have the capacity to test everyone. Also some carriers might not even have symptoms, which is a problem.

Today its back down to 45 new cases of infection and 3 deaths...

...
 

AD1184

Celestial
It would be disastrous if the virus can live on through sewage treatment and become waterborne in city drinking water, surely it cannot live through wastewater treatments...
I wouldn't expect it to be able to survive treatment. However, and I am not an expert, I would imagine the stuff arriving at the treatment works is somewhat raw. It is somehow exposed to the air, because it reeks to high heaven. I don't know if they stir it up or something, because it seems most likely to stink at night.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
USS Theodore Roosevelt WILL evacuate and quarantine its 4,000 crew on Guam after unprecedented plea by captain of the aircraft carrier that sailors could die as coronavirus cases QUADRUPLE on board

The 4,000 sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt are to be evacuated from the nuclear warship a week after at least 25 positive cases of coronavirus were identified on board and the ship was forced to dock in Guam. Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Tuesday that the Navy is working with the captain of the ship, its medical officer and the government in Guam to bring the sailors to shore as quickly as possible but there currently not enough beds available.

The announcement came after a letter from the ship's captain Brett Crozier pleaded with the Pentagon to let the bulk of its 4,000-person crew off the warship so they can quarantine safely, warning that 'sailors do not need to die'. The Navy is now working to identify sailors who are clear of coronavirus who will be able to maintain the ship's functions while the rest of the crew are taken into quarantine, as officials battle to ensure the United States is protected while also protecting the safety of its personnel.


26507348-0-image-a-11_1585345704325.jpg


26643944-8173797-image-a-11_1585692340706.jpg

Fired captain of USS Theodore Roosevelt tests positive for coronavirus as it's revealed top US commanders 'were opposed to his dismissal but were OVERRULED by Navy secretary because Trump wanted him gone over letter'

Captain Brett Crozier, the officer who was relieved of command of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt after a letter warning of a coronavirus outbreak on board the ship leaked to the press, has tested positive for COVID-19. Two Naval Academy classmates of Crozier who remain close to the family revealed the diagnosis. Admiral Michael Gilday (left), the chief of naval operations, and General Mark Milley (middle top right), the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believed that the Navy should have allowed an investigation into the letter written by Crozier (left top right) to run its course. Defense Secretary Mark Esper initially sided with the officers. But Esper eventually yielded to Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly (right top right), who favored immediately dismissing Crozier from his post in command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt (bottom right) because he believed that is what President Trump wanted, according to The Washington Post.

26835404-0-image-a-74_1586101809305.jpg
 
Well yeah theres some people in my country too who think a few thousand deaths are an acceptable price to pay as long as the economy doesnt take as much of a hit. Its easy to say so when you have the means to go to a private bunker.
 
Last edited:

AD1184

Celestial
These lockdowns, although necessary to prevent loss of life, are causing untold economic damage. Even if the virus miraculously disappeared today and the lockdowns were lifted, I think we will still be feeling their effects for a long-time to come.

The other side of the argument is that the uncertainty around the death rate of Covid-19 might admit a very low number, and that few countries are making a distinction between people dying with Covid-19 and dying from Covid-19, and maintain that a large proportion of the former would die shortly anyway.

Personally, I think the effect on hospitals speaks for itself. I am keeping an eye on this page, which updates its data every Thursday.

EURO MOMO
 

AD1184

Celestial
We can't,. We haven't seen accurate numbers from China on this for literal months now, there is no way, because of the Chinese Data on this, That we can really know the real impact of any of this. We have to grade on a curve because we do know for a fact that China is lying about their numbers.
How do you know for a fact that the Chinese are lying about their numbers? They did in fact lie about some things early in the epidemic, and being a totalitarian communist state they are not necessarily to be trusted. There were reports for example that a Japanese man who died in Wuhan died of 'viral pneumonia', rather than Covid-19, whereas the Japanese government considers that he died of Covid-19. There were also reports that there were not enough tests, and that some sufferers were turned away from hospitals because there was not more capacity.

However, in the west we are not testing comprehensively either. Our figures are incomplete and are being being adjusted in many countries, for example, where previously undeclared deaths occurring in care homes are added to the total. There is no community testing in this country at the moment. This is not the result of lying, however, but due to a lack of resources and preparedness. The Chinese government too adjusted their case figures upward by a large amount when they changed the criteria for a 'confirmed case' to admit clinical imaging results, rather than simply PCR testing.

There is this paper in the Lancet (a non-Chinese state source) which examines the severity of Covid-19 disease from the Hubei epidemic, and estimates an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.66%. This differs from the case fatality ratio, because that number is for medically-known cases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
 

nivek

As Above So Below
How do you know for a fact that the Chinese are lying about their numbers? They did in fact lie about some things early in the epidemic, and being a totalitarian communist state they are not necessarily to be trusted. There were reports for example that a Japanese man who died in Wuhan died of 'viral pneumonia', rather than Covid-19, whereas the Japanese government considers that he died of Covid-19. There were also reports that there were not enough tests, and that some sufferers were turned away from hospitals because there was not more capacity.

However, in the west we are not testing comprehensively either. Our figures are incomplete and are being being adjusted in many countries, for example, where previously undeclared deaths occurring in care homes are added to the total. There is no community testing in this country at the moment. This is not the result of lying, however, but due to a lack of resources and preparedness. The Chinese government too adjusted their case figures upward by a large amount when they changed the criteria for a 'confirmed case' to admit clinical imaging results, rather than simply PCR testing.

There is this paper in the Lancet (a non-Chinese state source) which examines the severity of Covid-19 disease from the Hubei epidemic, and estimates an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.66%. This differs from the case fatality ratio, because that number is for medically-known cases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Taken from the link you provided:

However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38%

We must in some way account the under-ascertained infections if we truly want to understand the severity of impact the virus is making in each respective country, its people and its economy...There will always be some individuals who do not seek healthcare when ill and many would not in this case either especially when suffering mild symptoms or having no symptoms at all and they would also be the likely spreaders of the virus too...It seems if we cannot test everyone promptly enough then our responses are going to be incomplete or faulty, we have to know who is infected and who is not in order to get things back to normal, the sooner the better IMO...

...
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
How do you know for a fact that the Chinese are lying about their numbers? They did in fact lie about some things early in the epidemic, and being a totalitarian communist state they are not necessarily to be trusted. There were reports for example that a Japanese man who died in Wuhan died of 'viral pneumonia', rather than Covid-19, whereas the Japanese government considers that he died of Covid-19. There were also reports that there were not enough tests, and that some sufferers were turned away from hospitals because there was not more capacity.

However, in the west we are not testing comprehensively either. Our figures are incomplete and are being being adjusted in many countries, for example, where previously undeclared deaths occurring in care homes are added to the total. There is no community testing in this country at the moment. This is not the result of lying, however, but due to a lack of resources and preparedness. The Chinese government too adjusted their case figures upward by a large amount when they changed the criteria for a 'confirmed case' to admit clinical imaging results, rather than simply PCR testing.

There is this paper in the Lancet (a non-Chinese state source) which examines the severity of Covid-19 disease from the Hubei epidemic, and estimates an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.66%. This differs from the case fatality ratio, because that number is for medically-known cases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
It's not a proof kind of thing, But in light of this situation, Why would they be honest with us, full knowing they tried to hide this in the beginning, To be fair they don't deserve our empirical trust right now.

It's safer and more logical to assume a liar continues to lie, Is it not?
 
Last edited:

AD1184

Celestial
It's not a proof kind of thing, But in light of this situation, Why would they be honest with us, full knowing they tried to hide this in the beginning, To be fair they don't deserve our empirical trust right now.

It's safer and more logical to assume a liar continues to lie, Is it not?
But you said 'we do know for a fact', which implies that you have certain knowledge of exactly what China is lying about, rather than a suspicion.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
But you said 'we do know for a fact', which implies that you have certain knowledge of exactly what China is lying about, rather than a suspicion.
Their numbers haven't moved in almost a month. Deduction shows We are to either assume the virus just stopped there. Completely? frozen in time, or they are concealing their numbers..

I mean, What do you assume? I realize people want facts and figures or for me to reveal Haha I'm a secret agent with photographic evidence, Common sense says they are lying about this Unless they have some sort of ancient Chinese magic and voodooed this away while letting the rest of the world suffer. I mean, You are aware that China has a lot of poverty and over a billion people, 1.6 billion people,. We are to ascertain this is completely contained over there and china has this? Common sense and logical deductive reasoning says otherwise.
 

pepe

Celestial
Johnson has had pneumonia in the past and is chubby.

Seems to be a lot of chubby men suffering more than others. He has been working all through this and has to hand over.
 
It seems realistically feasible to consider that we cannot really go by any of these charts or graphs or predictions simply because we don't know and won't know the true extent of our crisis until every person on earth is tested and quickly...
It doesn't take a flawless data set to get a reasonably clear understanding of what's going on; all it takes is a modestly consistent data collection protocol. And since the testing in the US has been absolutely pitiful from day one, the criterion has been reasonably consistent, which gives us a workable picture. Chances are that we're only detecting the more severe cases, and missing the other 50-80% of the cases - but that's been true all along so the stats are still useful.

Certainly the broad trends that I've been charting with the CDC data indicates the overall trend over any given week; here's what that looks like as of yesterday:

Coronavirus Growth Rate Graph.April 4 2020.jpg

Otherwise to only way to truly stop this virus dead in its tracks is to impose a full unconditional lock down of all people until testing and treatment clears them...
I'm stunned that we still don't have a mandatory lock-down anywhere in the US with the National Guard...the works. By not doing anything like that anywhere in the US, at least tens of thousands of people are going to die who could've been saved - and it's probably actually over 100K people who could've been spared.
 
Top