Computer Predicted the End of Civilization

Discussion in 'Past & Historical Events' started by Toroid, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. Toroid

    Toroid Founding Member

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    A computer program developed by MIT in 1973 predicted the end of civilization by 2040.
    End of the world: MIT prediction from 1973 is proving true

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCxPOqwCr1I
     
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  2. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

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    Interesting video. I think this may be the study referenced at the beginning of Soylent Green. I wonder about this a lot these days. I doubt that we'll be eating food processed from humans any time soon but the dire warning is still as relevent and significant today as it was in 1973.
     
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  3. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet N=R^.fp.ne.f1.fi.fc.L

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    Damn. Scary stuff bro, What's weird is, Civilizations for generations have all been vigilant, awaiting an end, It's like we know it's going to end someday, And it's been that way since time began. It's spooky, The end of time, Is a story in itself as old as time itself, And what's really strange about it is, It's a story that has to come true someday. It's unavoidable.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
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  4. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

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    I hate to say it, but I think the world population truly is too great to be sustainable. In order for humanity to survive for centuries to come with an acceptable level of quality of life, the population needs to be much smaller.

    The scoops are on their way!

     
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  5. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet N=R^.fp.ne.f1.fi.fc.L

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    Normally I'd fully agree with you, But I see Wealth and greed as a far larger problem than overpopulation. There is enough food and money and medicine on earth right now to feed and medicate every person on earth, It's the distribution of wealth and resources that is the true limitation. If we must I mean absolutely must begin controlling the population. Then let us get rid of those people who horde all the resources first, see how quickly things would get better worldwide. Just, My op.
     
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  6. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

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    That's a theme that also came up in the movie. As I recall, Joseph Cotten's character was a member of the wealthy elite who shielded himself from all of society's problems through his money. He bought concubines, body guards, luxury apartments, etc.
     
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  7. Toroid

    Toroid Founding Member

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  8. SOUL-DRIFTER

    SOUL-DRIFTER Administrator

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    Civilization will change, but not end.
    Human population will be suddenly reduced by 50% or greater in a single day, but life will go on and we will endure.
    A big space rock is on it's way and sometime after there will be a war, but again we will get through it all, changed but still mostly human.
     
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  9. michael59

    michael59 Noble

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    I hope I don't live to see it. If I am still alive, I hope that rock lands right on top of me.
     
  10. AD1184

    AD1184 Adept

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    Just because a computer model predicted something does not mean anything, and it is not in itself a compelling forecast of planetary doom. The results of any model are dependent on assumptions, and guesswork, made by the modeller. Interestingly, the narrator of the ABC report in the Youtube video says at about 0:42 that "[the programme] doesn't pretend to be a precise forecast".

    Moreover, any sensible model of a complex system like the world economy does not usually predict only a single outcome, but usually a range of outcomes with varying outputs dependent on a range input variables and parameters. Even then, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

    We must also ignore all developments that have happened in the interim. There is now a long history of new data not available in 1973, important new events, new global environmental legislation and regulations, and new technologies and modelling methods. What do they have to say on the matter?

    To draw any conclusion from this model, it should be critically evaluated and compared with more recent work. Saying that the computer model's predictions are on track because globally there is more pollution now than there was then is fatuous. Anyone who read a newspaper in 1973 could have predicted that. It says that 'quality of life' has been in decline. That is true enough in western nations, but the cause is nothing to do with pollution, or declining resources, but the concensus of economic policy developed since the 1980s in those nations which leaves those in the bottom two-thirds of society left out. I think the global average of quality of life has been increasing though, in spite of increased pollution.
     
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  11. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

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    I was going to hit "like" but then I realized it would sound like I wanted you to be crushed to death! a0039
     
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  12. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

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    This may not be relevant to this thread, but I've been reading a lot about the current situation in China.

    Many factories are grossly inefficient, thousands of recently built apartment buildings sit empty as ghost towns, and many of the more than 250 million people who moved from small farming towns to the big cities now want to move back. Wages are rising dramatically and China is losing many of its low cost manufacturing contracts to places like India, Vietnam, and even some countries in Eastern Europe.

    There has never been an example in modern history where a centrally-planned economy has maintained long term growth and stability. I worry about what could happen if things really go down hill in China. It could be the biggest social and economic crisis the world has ever seen.
     
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