Discussion in 'End Times & Conspiracies' started by nivek, Jan 16, 2020.
It seems that deaths are being grossly under-reported...
I hope you're right, but did you read that Twitter thread? That's exactly what he's talking about - if you look at the national data as a single aggregate, then you'll get the misleading idea that the decline in deaths is meaningful, whereas if you look at the situation at a local level we're about to see NYC-scale crises in dozens of locations around the country with a surge in deaths over the next eight weeks.
Nivek's post seems to confirm this - care capacity is already maxing out in some locales:
Idk what it's like elsewhere, but here in New Orleans I'm seeing more people on the streets walking together, jogging, riding bikes, walking their dogs, sight-seeing, drinking beers together on the porch, and gathering in groups on the sidewalk and at cafe's and at outside patio bars without wearing masks, than at any other time in history. It's like people think this is over and they've all decided to celebrate, when in reality we still haven't reached a peak.
During the NYC crisis the reported deaths due to heart attacks was over 400% what it was during the same period last year. So yeah, I think the death toll from COVID-19 is being grossly misreported.
"New York City, which reports its covid-19 statistics separately from the state, quickly became the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States and saw more than 4,700 excess deaths from heart disease — more than four times the number of any other jurisdiction The Post examined."
COVID-19 is airborne and has mutated to be more infectious: Studies
Found out something this morning I didn't know about...
I think Miles Beckett on Twitter is misapplying Simpson's paradox. That paradox is to do with proportions as evidenced in contingency tables, where one can infer contradictory causal relationships by grouping data in different ways.
Here we are dealing with simple counts, i.e. is the count of the number of dead recorded each day increasing along with the increase in the number of people testing positive? He mentions that the US epidemic consists of lots of small outbreaks in every locality in the US, and I agree with this. You may remember that I made the same point a few times back in March and April in this thread. The national trend does not necessarily tell you what is going on in a locality, but this is not Simpson's paradox.
The current increase in US cases is being driven primarily by outbreaks in California, Arizona, Texas and Florida. However, even when we look at the death data for these states we see the following (this is the smoothed data with a seven-day moving point average):
This compares with New York state like this:
New York had a period of rapid exponential growth, and reached a peak in deaths in just over three weeks from the first recorded death.
In the four states of concern, one is recording no increase in the number of daily dead (California), the others are trending upward but more slowly than New York and the numbers are far smaller. The situation could deteriorate, but there does not seem to be a New York-scale disaster yet unfolding in any of these states.
So, although national statistics can obscure what is going on in a locality, the increase in the positive tests is visible in the bulk data, but there is no concurrent increase in the number of daily dead. I think there is more virus about, as the increase in positive tests is only partially attributable to increased testing. However, it also appears that the virus is not as deadly, or not spreading as it was in New York in March.
Organization files request to block Dane County, Milwaukee pandemic orders
if successful there will be a compete reopening of dane county and half the city with coronavirus
Florida's covid cases DOUBLE in less than two weeks and hospitals in two Texas counties hit FULL capacity over the Fourth of July weekend
Even as states tempered their Fourth of July celebrations, record-setting rolling seven day average case increases were hit in 14 states, with Florida and Texas among the hardest hit. Florida's case count has doubled from 100,000 to more than 200,000 in less than two weeks. Texas hit a new record number of daily infections over the holiday weekend, as the mayors of Austin and Houston warned their hospital systems were on the brink of being overwhelmed with coronavirus patients. Already, two counties' hospitals are at 100% capacity. Nationwide, more than 130,000 Americans have died of coronavirus as of Monday.
Three pubs are forced to close because customers test positive for coronavirus just TWO days after they reopened on Super Saturday
Three pubs have been forced to close after customers tested positive for coronavirus following Super Saturday.
The Lighthouse in Burnham-on-Sea, Somerset, the Fox & Hounds, in Batley, West Yorkshire and The Village Home in Alverstoke, Hampshire are the first pubs in England to close following the easing of lockdown restrictions. Thousands of drinkers flocked to pubs over the weekend following three months of lockdown.
However, now all three pubs have taken to Facebook to reveal how customers had tested positive for coronavirus, forcing them to close again.
The Fox and Hounds, in Batley, wrote: 'This morning I got a phone call off a customer which visited our pub on Saturday to say they'd tested positive for coronavirus.
'On their visit they was unaware and had no symptoms but after seeing a post off another place they'd visited thought it was best to take a test to which come back positive. Due to privacy reason we won't be naming this person.' Management have sought advice from NHS Track and Trace. All staff have been tested for the virus and the pub is undergoing a deep clean. 'We fully understand this is a scary time but want to ensure our customer safety is our main priority in these tough times,' continued the post.
(more on the link)
Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable': Only 5% of people in Spain developed antibodies three months after the pandemic peaked, study suggests
A new study shows that achieving so-called herd immunity against the novel coronavirus may be 'unachievable.'
Researchers found that only five percent of the population in Spain have previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and have built up antibodies. However, not enough people have gotten the illness for there to be no spread in communities.
This means that 95 percent of Spaniards remains susceptible to contracting COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. Public health officials have warned for years that vaccines not only protect individuals but the community as a whole in what is known as 'herd immunity'. This occurs when the vast majority of a community - between 80 and 95 percent - becomes immune so that, if a disease is introduced, it is unable to spread.
Therefore, those who are unable to be vaccinated or at high-risk of severe illness, including the ill, very young and very old, are protected. The study's lead author, Dr Marina Pollán, director of Spain's National Center for Epidemiology, told CNN possible herd immunity rates may even be lower but that we're still not anywhere close.
(more on the link)
New highs for a few states again today, I think many states are under-reporting deaths as it seems Florida has done...They can only hide the truth for so long if that is the case, as its been mentioned previously, the next two months will be the tell...
I do recall your posts about the importance of highly localized analyses, so I thought you might find Beckett's analysis interesting. There are many factors at work here so it's easy to draw the wrong conclusions (such as "we've gotten much better at saving the lives of COVID patients" and/or "the virus suddenly and inexplicably isn't as deadly"); that's how I interpreted his reference to Simpson's paradox. I've also heard that more younger people are getting infected right now (not sure if that's true) than previously so that also complicates an effort to understand what's happening, and to project outcomes.
I think it's a mistake to focus solely on the fatalities, because as you know, that's the trailing indicator not the leading indicator. So if we want to forecast (as Beckett is trying to do in his Twitter thread) then we have to look at the number of new cases and the density of new cases in a given area, like Houston for example, because the death tolls only tell us what happened, not what's going to happen.
And if nivek's posts are fairly accurate (the number of new cases per state, per day) - an assumption which seems reasonable to me, I do see cause for alarm: over 9000 cases in one day in Texas is sobering news. In my mind it indicates that within 4 weeks about 5% of those people will be dead, or put another way, about 450 deaths per day in Texas alone sometime within the next month. And with the widespread insanity of denial spreading around many areas of the US right now, I think it's very plausible that many areas will have to be littered with corpses on the sidewalks around hospitals before many Americans will wake tf up and start wearing a damn mask in public. [Note: of course my frustration is directed at the millions of "virus denialists" in the US, not at you personally]
I wonder if the country has gone mad. I read that there have been Covid parties where younger people are trying to catch the virus. If you told me that the end of the world was in sight, I would have to believe you.
Friends in Florida reported the same thing.
Coronavirus expert says Americans will be wearing masks for ‘several years’
Health experts won’t ask Americans to take off their masks any time soon.
That’s the take of Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. He has been preparing for an outbreak like the novel coronavirus as part of his work for years.
Johns Hopkins practices virus simulations as part of is preparedness protocol, with the goal of offering public health experts and policymakers a blueprint of what to do in a pandemic. One of those simulations took place in October 2019, when Toner and a team of researchers launched a coronavirus pandemic simulation in New York, running through various scenarios on how residents, governments and private businesses would hypothetically react to the threat.
One thing that stood out to him: Face coverings are a vital defense to stop the spread of the virus. He believes COVID-19 won’t slow down in the U.S. even as states start to slowly reopen.
“There's going to be no summertime lull with a big wave in the fall,” he said as part of CNET’s Hacking the Apocalypse series. “It's clear that we are having a significant resurgence of cases in the summer, and they'll get bigger. And it'll keep going until we lock things down again.”
(more on the link)
I know lots of people dislike Dr. Falci. Perhaps because he is trying to get some sort of the truth out from this administration. I would tend to believe him. The COVID virus is not lessening but increasing. People not distancing or wearing the mask in public are only making matters worse.
He also stated that an antidote probably won’t be available until 2021 and fully rolled out until 2022. We have a long slog to go it seems.
Last plane out of Melbourne: Shell-shocked travellers say it was like 'flying out of an apocalypse' on the final flight from Victoria - as borders shut TODAY and millions face six weeks of lockdown hell
Hundreds of shell-shocked Australians arrived in Sydney on the last flights out of Melbourne just hours before the New South Wales-Victoria border closed indefinitely for the first time in a century. Qantas and Jetstar flights QF490 and JQ530 were the final two from Melbourne allowed to land in the Harbour City, arriving at about 10pm on Tuesday before the state border slammed shut two hours later. Victoria recorded 191 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday - the biggest daily increase since the outbreak began, plunging 5.2million people in greater Melbourne back into lockdown for six weeks effective from 11.59pm on Wednesday.
Don't go to China: Australians are issued a chilling warning they could be LOCKED UP in hellhole detention centres just for setting foot in the communist nation
Australians have been warned they could face 'arbitrary detention' in China if they travel to the communist nation.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade released a travel advice update on Tuesday featuring a chilling message for travellers planning to head to mainland China. Australians have already been told not to travel overseas during the coronavirus pandemic. But the update went further and stated the Chinese government has detained foreigners who it accused of 'endangering national security'.
'China will not allow most foreigners to enter China due to COVID-19,' the DFAT update reads. 'Direct flights between China and Australia have significantly reduced.
'If despite our advice you travel to China, you'll be subject to 14 days mandatory quarantine. Quarantine requirements may change at short notice.
'If you're already in China, and wish to return to Australia, we recommend you do so as soon as possible by commercial means.
'Authorities have detained foreigners because they're "endangering national security". Australians may also be at risk of arbitrary detention.'
(more on the link)
Today again, all new highs for new cases, and now a spike in deaths, just about a thousand confirmed...
I would like to know why anyone would be traveling to China, whether it was business or vacation. That is taking one hell of a risk with your life right now.
This woman has lost the plot...
DeVos calls out 'adults who are fearmongering' over school reopenings: 'Kids have got to continue learning'
Education Secretary Betsy DeVos told "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Tuesday that her department is "seriously considering" withholding federal funding from school districts that do not make a honest effort to bring students back for in-person classes this fall.
"We are looking at this very seriously, this is a very serious issue across the country," DeVos told host Tucker Carlson. "Kids have got to continue learning and schools have got to open up. There's got to be a concerted effort to address the needs of all kids, and adults who are fearmongering and making excuses simply have to stop doing it and turn their attention to what is right for them and the students and their families."
Later in the interview, DeVos told Carlson that "if nothing else, this whole coronavirus has made more and more parents aware of what's going on in their own children's schools -- or what isn't going on.
(more on the link)
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