Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is a complete arse

Yes indeed. Welcome to what we know. He sounds good but rewind to a recent New York City Housing Authority crisis in which he showed up with hard had and safety vest tsk-tisking deplorable living conditions. Photo op over, nothing's changed. But it sounded good ....

In one of the massive corruption cases a wire picked up two conspirators thanking Italy for beautiful women, beautiful cars and Andrew Cuomo - for being oblivious.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Counties without coronavirus are mostly rural, poor

As the coronavirus rages across the United States, mainly in large urban areas, more than a third of U.S. counties have yet to report a single positive test result for COVID-19 infections, an analysis by The Associated Press shows.

Data compiled by John Hopkins University shows that 1,297 counties have no confirmed cases of COVID-19 out of 3,142 counties nationwide. Of the counties without positive tests, 85% are in rural areas — from predominantly white communities in Appalachia and the Great Plains to majority Hispanic and Native American stretches of the American Southwest — that generally have less everyday contact between people that can help transmit the virus.

At the same time, counties with zero positive tests for COVID-19 have a higher median age and higher proportion of people older than 60 — the most vulnerable to severe effects of the virus — and far fewer intensive care beds should they fall sick. Median household income is lower too, potentially limiting health care options.


(more on the link)

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Shadowprophet

Truthiness
Counties without coronavirus are mostly rural, poor

As the coronavirus rages across the United States, mainly in large urban areas, more than a third of U.S. counties have yet to report a single positive test result for COVID-19 infections, an analysis by The Associated Press shows.

Data compiled by John Hopkins University shows that 1,297 counties have no confirmed cases of COVID-19 out of 3,142 counties nationwide. Of the counties without positive tests, 85% are in rural areas — from predominantly white communities in Appalachia and the Great Plains to majority Hispanic and Native American stretches of the American Southwest — that generally have less everyday contact between people that can help transmit the virus.

At the same time, counties with zero positive tests for COVID-19 have a higher median age and higher proportion of people older than 60 — the most vulnerable to severe effects of the virus — and far fewer intensive care beds should they fall sick. Median household income is lower too, potentially limiting health care options.


(more on the link)

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Yes but the rural part makes perfect logical sense, I mean.. And to cover the poor part, I was poor when I was younger, Like really poor, I can tell you, Poor people aren't attending the socialite balls. It's psychological really, Poor isn't popular at parties, It isn't popular with the ladies, regardless of how people take this, The hot young ladies aren't all clamoring to spring break to meet a poor man who can't afford the gas it takes to get to the beach. Poor people tend to be isolated more because they simply can't afford to do anything else.

I don't really feel that needed explaining, Morso it puzzles me that that article is even a thing, because logic dictates that a virus spread by human contact would affect the poor to a lesser degree,

When's the last time you saw someone run-up to a homeless man and give him a hug? The truth is every time that even happens, A camera is rolling.

Poor isn't popular, Though it is common.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Yes but the rural part makes perfect logical sense, I mean.. And to cover the poor part, I was poor when I was younger, Like really poor, I can tell you,

I was also poor growing up, my family was, and being on my own since I was 17 years old, everything I have now I did on my own...

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Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I was also poor growing up, my family was, and being on my own since I was 17 years old, everything I have now I did on my own...

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I would love to say I did everything own my own, But, I owe a lot to my grandfather, He Plucked me up right after high school and told me of all his grandchildren, I deserved college the most. He changed my life forever, Just by being a loving person.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
No state or city will be spared: Experts warn that new US coronavirus hotspots including Detroit and New Orleans are 'off the chart' and could be WORSE than NYC as death toll doubles to 2,000 in two days

Several other cities including New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago and Boston are now being monitored as potential hotspots, threatening to push the overall case count in the US higher and higher. 'Every metro area should assume that they will have an outbreak equivalent to New York,' Dr Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, told NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday morning. Some experts have said that outbreaks in other parts of the country could be even more devastating than the ones seen in New York City because they are less prepared. 'I'm worried that New York might not be the worst-case scenario,' Retsef Levi, a professor of operations management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said .

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nivek

As Above So Below
'I was afraid I would die': Woman, 22, describes how coronavirus left her crawling to the bathroom to vomit, struggling for breath and lying in a pool of her own sweat

Amy Shircel (pictured), 22, shared her experience with Covid-19 in a viral Twitter thread. Shircel revealed tested positive for the disease after a trip to Europe. She described her mild symptoms soon turning severe in just three days. Vomiting, loss of appetite and shortness of breath were some of her symptoms. Shircel went to the emergency room at least twice for her illness. CDC said older adults or people with severe underlying medical conditions could be at a higher risk of developing serious complications. United States reached 123,778 confirmed cases and 2,164 deaths as of Saturday.

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nivek

As Above So Below
I imagine that soon other states will start screening any and all travelers that enter each respective state, we should have already stopped all state to state travel with the exception of essential travel, like shipping trucks and whatnot...

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Florida is setting up border checkpoints to screen travelers from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and get them to quarantine
  • Florida is working to set up more highway checkpoints to deter New York, New Jersey and Connecticut travelers from arriving in the Sunshine State
  • Gov Ron DeSantis said Saturday screening of travelers will be on Interstate 95
  • Travel restrictions follow governor's order that visitors flying in from tri-state area are to self-quarantine for two weeks under threat of a 60-day jail sentence
  • Despite the restrictions, DeSantis has still refused to lockdown the entire state
  • Social media photos show that some beaches have closed but others have not
  • Spring Breakers have been partying at beaches despite social distancing order
  • The state's death toll increased to 54 on Saturday. More than 4,000 people have tested positive in the state and more than 500 people are hospitalized.
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nivek

As Above So Below
It is unsettling to think this virus has began infecting dogs and cats with Covid-19, two dogs and one cat have been reported as confirmed cases, I think it will be nearly impossible to stop if it begins spreading rapidly through our pets and especially if the virus begins jumping back to humans from our pets...I guess the one thing on our side is that for the most part our pets are isolated from one another, unless they mingle at dog parks, but the virus could spread fast through kennels and veterinary clinics...

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nivek

As Above So Below
How are things in Tasmania @August ?...Hope you are well...

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New Zealand supermarkets install FENCES around checkouts and impose strict customer limits to stop spread of coronavirus - while Australian staff have almost no protection

Photos of a New World outlet in Onerahi, north of Auckland, showed temporary fences separating checkouts from each other the the aisles along with huge plastic screens. By contrast, most shops in Australia have nothing protecting staff except some smaller screens Woolworths installed in the past few days. New World, along with bigger competitors Countdown and Pak 'n Save, also has a long list of coronavirus procedures to make shopping safer, while Coles, Wooloworths, and Aldi have far fewer measures in place.

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You are not completely right @Thomas R. Morrison, although I am center-left as you are. These corporations are the engine of the economy, they employ millions of people. When gov. is pumping cash into corporations it is saving the engine. Once virus is defeated you just re-start the engine and you start re-building the society.
No Dejan - the workers are the engine of the economy; the engineers, the innovators, the scientists, the construction workers, the architects, the laborers, etc. The workers built our civilization and they generate the value that drives the global economy.

A corporation is just the legal structure that allows a handful of fat sociopaths to exploit all of that value generated by the workers to line the pockets of the 1% of the population that generate no value and live like kings at the expense of 99% of the population. At this point we have a series of monopolies that have seized the fruits of the labor class entirely for themselves, just like they did back in the Gilded Age before organized labor leveled the scales a bit - which produced the most prosperous era in American history.

If the corporations collapse then we'll still have all of that infrastructure and a new generation can build a more equitable and just society that's far more stable because the wealth generated by the workers of the world won't be exclusively funneled into the pockets of 2,604 billionaires.

If many people die it's no big deal.
That's how the Nazis thought. You should be ashamed - and if you're not, then you're a sociopath.

Surviving generation will have lots of sex and in no time we'll be back to the per-epidemic numbers. Same thing happened across the Europe and US after WWII. That's what term "baby boomers" stands for. I just wish I am a bit younger so I can help them out with re-population :)
That's basically my point: we made it through two world wars and the influenza pandemic of 1918 without spending trillions of dollars bailing out big business. Human life has intrinsic meaning and value. Corporations like JP Morgan and CitiGroup do not - corporate entities have no intrinsic value (and in this era are basically parasitic in nature) and they are easily replaceable.

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Anyway, last week I noticed that the rate of spread of this virus across America was progressing at a terrifying geometric rate - roughly a 10-fold increase in the total number of official cases every 8 days. And I could see no signs that the policy of voluntary social distancing was working.

But the CDC just updated their database to include the last couple of days, and it's very good news: in the last few days the rate of expansion has dropped to nearly half of the growth rate we've seen for the last three weeks. That's going to save a lot of lives. Here's the chart I made of the CDC numbers to track the situation - note the rapid decrease over the last four days:

US Pandemic Growth.March 29 2020.jpg
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Anyway, last week I noticed that the rate of spread of this virus across America was progressing at a terrifying geometric rate - roughly a 10-fold increase in the total number of official cases every 8 days. And I could see no signs that the policy of voluntary social distancing was working.

But the CDC just updated their database to include the last couple of days, and it's very good news: in the last few days the rate of expansion has dropped to nearly half of the growth rate we've seen for the last three weeks. That's going to save a lot of lives. Here's the chart I made of the CDC numbers to track the situation - note the rapid decrease over the last four days:

View attachment 9330

Could this be a reflection of the spread of the virus slowing a bit in more rural areas that its taken a foothold in?...Seems that slower rural spread of the virus would water down the speed in which it infects the more heavily populated city population...

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Could this be a reflection of the spread of the virus slowing a bit in more rural areas that its taken a foothold in?...Seems that slower rural spread of the virus would water down the speed in which it infects the more heavily populated city population...

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No I don't think that's it - the drop in growth rate is much too sharp for that explanation; there are still way too many uninfected people in the cities and the transition from urban to rural growth dynamics would be expected to take several weeks, not just a few days.

This is the result of our countermeasures: social distancing and disinfection protocols. We're doing this. Not the virus, not the government, not the media - this is happening because of us.

And if the growth rate continues to drop at this rate for just a few more days then R will fall below 1, and we'll start seeing a decline in the number of cases each day, rather than a dramatic increase every day.

But of course, that will depend on us maintaining the current conditions - if we get too complacent too quickly, this thing will rise sharply again.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
I had been meaning to talk to Nivek About adding some sort of Html plugged-in version of this page so people can track the virus from AE, But I'm almost certain the thought has occurred to him to do something. I mean everyone is tracking it anyway, So why not add some sort of option to track the heat map here. It's just logical. But this is just a thought.

Here is a simple page I set up on AE...

Covid-19

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nivek

As Above So Below
Ventilator 'rationing' begins in UK: Only patients with 'reasonable certainty' of survival are put on the machines at London hospital - as Britain's coronavirus death toll rises by 209 to 1,228 and infections jump by 2,483 to 19,522

Machines used to keep patients breathing are being restricted on medical grounds, not because of a lack of capacity, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust told the Daily Telegraph.

The trust said that 'very poorly patients with coronavirus may need to be on a ventilator for extended periods', adding that 'for some patients this would not be in their best interests'.

A senior consultant told the paper: 'As we learn more about the disease, we are being much more careful about which patients are being considered for critical care. In normal times we will give most people the benefit of the doubt. That has changed.'

'With this infection you need a couple of weeks on a ventilator, so with resources being used for such a long time, you have to be reasonably certain the person is going to get better. Delaying their death for two or three weeks is not the right thing for them or for society.'

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AD1184

Celestial
I have recently been reminded of a few Trumpian headlines about the coronavirus from liberal media outlets around the late January, early February period.

The Washington Post had an opinion piece with the headline "Get a grippe, America. The flu is a much bigger threat than coronavirus, for now."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...a15166-4444-11ea-b5fc-eefa848cde99_story.html

(Behind paywall)

The Daily Beast had a headline of "The Virus Killing US Kids Isn't the One Dominating the Headlines". Its Tweet to advertise this read "Coronavirus, with zero American fatalities, is dominating headlines, while the flu is the real threat". This article seems to have been deleted.

Vox tweeted, in an effort to 'inform' its followers, as part of a larger tweet on coronavirus 'facts', "[...] Is this going to be a deadly pandemic? No."

Buzzfeed has an article (still up):

Here's What We Do And Don't Know About The Deadly Coronavirus Outbreak

The current headline is "Here's What We Do And Don't Know About The Deadly Coronavirus Outbreak." There is a sort of retraction at the top, reading:
"Update: This story was originally published with a different headline comparing the effect of the coronavirus outbreak in the US to the flu. The headline, and the story, was based on information available in late January. Because the story is still being widely shared, we have decided to change the headline in order to reflect our current understanding of the pandemic. Here is the most recent BuzzFeed News coverage on the coronavirus."

I believe that the original headline was something like "Don't worry about the coronavirus. Worry about the flu." There is still a subheading to one section of the article that reads "The risk of getting infected is high in China -- but people in the US should be way more worried about the flu."

There was also an article I read at the time on the European Euronews website titled "Which is the real pandemic, coronavirus or the hysteria that follows?" formerly available at this link:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/05...-hysteria-that-follows-euronews-reality-check

This has since been deleted. I believe that the author was an academic physician, but I cannot recall his name. It excoriated people in the media and the public for being needlessly concerned about the coronavirus in early February. Styled as a 'reality check', it confidently asserted that the Chinese coronavirus epidemic would not result in a global pandemic, and that there would be a peak of 70,000 or so infections before it would die out. Besides, the mortality rate is low, and those who die were going to die anyway, so why worry?

A lot of these self-same outlets are now leading the charge against the coronavirus and seemingly not viewing any measure as too harsh to contain it. It was not always so, however. I think that there is quite possibly a cognitive difficulty they struggled with, in that as long as the epidemic was largely confined to China and to a lesser extent the wider East Asian region, voicing any sort of concern about its possible spread outside of that region, and seeking to mitigate against that, would have had racist connotations. And so at that time they invested some energy in concocting Trumpian opinion pieces to downplay the pandemic potential, and to make flawed comparisons with the seasonal flu.

It was only when the virus had demonstrably established itself far beyond this region that they allowed themselves (and others) to voice concerns.

Of course, Euronews' precious EU freedom of movement and the Schengen Zone have now been effectively abolished for the time being and such drastic measures now do not look so disproportionate or extreme to EU/Schengen governments. What price have we paid in our war against "panic"?
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Wuhan residents believe 42,000 people may have died in the coronavirus outbreak there - not the 3,200 claimed by Chinese authorities

Wuhan locals claim coronavirus has killed 42,000 people in the city alone, more than ten times the national figure claimed by Chinese authorities.

The killer bug, which originated in Wuhan in China's Hubei Province has claimed the lives of 3,300 people and infected more than 81,000. Of those, 3,182 deaths were reported in Hubei Province.

But residents in Wuhan claim 500 urns have been handed out to grieving families every day from seven separate funeral homes all serving the city.

This means the ashes of 3,500 people are distributed every 24 hours.

The homes - in Hankou, Wuchang and Hanyang - have told grieving families that they will receive the ashes before April 5, the date of Qing Ming festival where people tend the graves of their ancestors.

This means that 42,000 urns could be distributed in that 12-day period.


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nivek

As Above So Below
There was also an article I read at the time on the European Euronews website titled "Which is the real pandemic, coronavirus or the hysteria that follows?" formerly available at this link:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/05...-hysteria-that-follows-euronews-reality-check

This has since been deleted. I believe that the author was an academic physician, but I cannot recall his name. It excoriated people in the media and the public for being needlessly concerned about the coronavirus in early February. Styled as a 'reality check', it confidently asserted that the Chinese coronavirus epidemic would not result in a global pandemic, and that there would be a peak of 70,000 or so infections before it would die out. Besides, the mortality rate is low, and those who die were going to die anyway, so why worry?

Would this be the version you were referring to, its from February 6th, compliments of the wayback machine...

What's deadlier, coronavirus or hysteria? | Euronews Reality Check

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