AD1184
Celestial
That's good, but I think that things that have happened in this pandemic should caution everyone against becoming hopeful due to one-day data trends.
That's good, but I think that things that have happened in this pandemic should caution everyone against becoming hopeful due to one-day data trends.
Well, there's stupid deeds and then there's knuckle-dragging stupid, yeah I'd say natural selection will pull through lol...
The walkways smell better too...
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Yesterday I was reading about how much Sweden is defending their style of 'combating' the virus by leaving everything open and allowing the people to social distance themselves, but their numbers of infected are climbing fast, are they not seeing this themselves?...Surely they must know given what's been occurring in other countries that the status quo will not help them...
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I live fairly close to a large sewage works. Thankfully I live to the west of it, and we have prevailing westerly winds. However, on some nights, when the wind is in the east, there is a foul smell that descends over the area where I live. It happened on a night the other week. I had heard of the survival of SARS-Cov-2 in human waste at that point, and was rather worried.
About eight years ago, the sewer on my street also clogged due to a 'fatberg', which caused an overflow after some rainfall, and the fire brigade and sewerage maintenance people had to come out and pump the sewers. They provided some sandbags to stop it from flowing through my front door. The overflow was so bad that my neighbour's property was flooded on the ground floor (they sit slightly lower than my house). I worry that something like that might happen again during this crisis. I can't imagine that the sewers are being as well maintained at the moment, or that the response will be so swift if it does happen.
That number jumped cause of the new testing thats been increased. Likely the total infections might be 20-30 times the official numbers since we dont have the capacity to test everyone. Also some carriers might not even have symptoms, which is a problem.
I wouldn't expect it to be able to survive treatment. However, and I am not an expert, I would imagine the stuff arriving at the treatment works is somewhat raw. It is somehow exposed to the air, because it reeks to high heaven. I don't know if they stir it up or something, because it seems most likely to stink at night.It would be disastrous if the virus can live on through sewage treatment and become waterborne in city drinking water, surely it cannot live through wastewater treatments...
USS Theodore Roosevelt WILL evacuate and quarantine its 4,000 crew on Guam after unprecedented plea by captain of the aircraft carrier that sailors could die as coronavirus cases QUADRUPLE on board
The 4,000 sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt are to be evacuated from the nuclear warship a week after at least 25 positive cases of coronavirus were identified on board and the ship was forced to dock in Guam. Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Tuesday that the Navy is working with the captain of the ship, its medical officer and the government in Guam to bring the sailors to shore as quickly as possible but there currently not enough beds available.
The announcement came after a letter from the ship's captain Brett Crozier pleaded with the Pentagon to let the bulk of its 4,000-person crew off the warship so they can quarantine safely, warning that 'sailors do not need to die'. The Navy is now working to identify sailors who are clear of coronavirus who will be able to maintain the ship's functions while the rest of the crew are taken into quarantine, as officials battle to ensure the United States is protected while also protecting the safety of its personnel.
How do you know for a fact that the Chinese are lying about their numbers? They did in fact lie about some things early in the epidemic, and being a totalitarian communist state they are not necessarily to be trusted. There were reports for example that a Japanese man who died in Wuhan died of 'viral pneumonia', rather than Covid-19, whereas the Japanese government considers that he died of Covid-19. There were also reports that there were not enough tests, and that some sufferers were turned away from hospitals because there was not more capacity.We can't,. We haven't seen accurate numbers from China on this for literal months now, there is no way, because of the Chinese Data on this, That we can really know the real impact of any of this. We have to grade on a curve because we do know for a fact that China is lying about their numbers.
How do you know for a fact that the Chinese are lying about their numbers? They did in fact lie about some things early in the epidemic, and being a totalitarian communist state they are not necessarily to be trusted. There were reports for example that a Japanese man who died in Wuhan died of 'viral pneumonia', rather than Covid-19, whereas the Japanese government considers that he died of Covid-19. There were also reports that there were not enough tests, and that some sufferers were turned away from hospitals because there was not more capacity.
However, in the west we are not testing comprehensively either. Our figures are incomplete and are being being adjusted in many countries, for example, where previously undeclared deaths occurring in care homes are added to the total. There is no community testing in this country at the moment. This is not the result of lying, however, but due to a lack of resources and preparedness. The Chinese government too adjusted their case figures upward by a large amount when they changed the criteria for a 'confirmed case' to admit clinical imaging results, rather than simply PCR testing.
There is this paper in the Lancet (a non-Chinese state source) which examines the severity of Covid-19 disease from the Hubei epidemic, and estimates an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.66%. This differs from the case fatality ratio, because that number is for medically-known cases.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38%
It's not a proof kind of thing, But in light of this situation, Why would they be honest with us, full knowing they tried to hide this in the beginning, To be fair they don't deserve our empirical trust right now.How do you know for a fact that the Chinese are lying about their numbers? They did in fact lie about some things early in the epidemic, and being a totalitarian communist state they are not necessarily to be trusted. There were reports for example that a Japanese man who died in Wuhan died of 'viral pneumonia', rather than Covid-19, whereas the Japanese government considers that he died of Covid-19. There were also reports that there were not enough tests, and that some sufferers were turned away from hospitals because there was not more capacity.
However, in the west we are not testing comprehensively either. Our figures are incomplete and are being being adjusted in many countries, for example, where previously undeclared deaths occurring in care homes are added to the total. There is no community testing in this country at the moment. This is not the result of lying, however, but due to a lack of resources and preparedness. The Chinese government too adjusted their case figures upward by a large amount when they changed the criteria for a 'confirmed case' to admit clinical imaging results, rather than simply PCR testing.
There is this paper in the Lancet (a non-Chinese state source) which examines the severity of Covid-19 disease from the Hubei epidemic, and estimates an overall infection fatality ratio of 0.66%. This differs from the case fatality ratio, because that number is for medically-known cases.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
But you said 'we do know for a fact', which implies that you have certain knowledge of exactly what China is lying about, rather than a suspicion.It's not a proof kind of thing, But in light of this situation, Why would they be honest with us, full knowing they tried to hide this in the beginning, To be fair they don't deserve our empirical trust right now.
It's safer and more logical to assume a liar continues to lie, Is it not?
Their numbers haven't moved in almost a month. Deduction shows We are to either assume the virus just stopped there. Completely? frozen in time, or they are concealing their numbers..But you said 'we do know for a fact', which implies that you have certain knowledge of exactly what China is lying about, rather than a suspicion.
It doesn't take a flawless data set to get a reasonably clear understanding of what's going on; all it takes is a modestly consistent data collection protocol. And since the testing in the US has been absolutely pitiful from day one, the criterion has been reasonably consistent, which gives us a workable picture. Chances are that we're only detecting the more severe cases, and missing the other 50-80% of the cases - but that's been true all along so the stats are still useful.It seems realistically feasible to consider that we cannot really go by any of these charts or graphs or predictions simply because we don't know and won't know the true extent of our crisis until every person on earth is tested and quickly...
I'm stunned that we still don't have a mandatory lock-down anywhere in the US with the National Guard...the works. By not doing anything like that anywhere in the US, at least tens of thousands of people are going to die who could've been saved - and it's probably actually over 100K people who could've been spared.Otherwise to only way to truly stop this virus dead in its tracks is to impose a full unconditional lock down of all people until testing and treatment clears them...