Global Cooling or Global Warming?

Discussion in 'The Natural World' started by nivek, Aug 17, 2017.

  1. Zeke

    Zeke Infrequent

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    People can Talk to me about an interglacial Ice age and being kind of a scientific fact.

    Even Nivek here accepts that man made -is a factor- contributing to the equation. Besides the obvious spike in CO2 since the industrial evolution, (weather you are riding the Interglacial Ice Age train or Global Warming Train), now that's a fact. The question is, how much of an effect does man have to adversely accelerate the equation - with cutting down trees and taking CO2 out of the ground - on top of the natural cycle and natural forces of nature such as the sun activity. And the answer Musk provides in the video below - it's a stupid gamble and the sooner we transition the better.

    I don't know where Casual is pulling his charts out of, but doesn't take a chart to see the ocean's reefs are dying. Why? "Presently, oceans are CO2 sinks, and represent the largest active carbon sink on Earth, absorbing more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide that humans put into the air. The solubility pump is the primary mechanism responsible for the CO2 absorption by the oceans." -wiki

    Someone who's created technologically ahead of the curve companies to put man on Mars - SpaceX, Tesla, PayPal, Boring - explains - a real idiot /s. Does he want to profit from his ventures? OF COURSE. Is that wrong or make his claims wrong? OF COURSE NOT. Naturally the smart guys quit Trump's science team given he is so anti-science, and lacking any long term global objectives.

    At least we got @Thomas R. Morrison here to counter these misdirected claims and charts shown. It reminds me when Cruz was telling everyone how the "satellite data" is showing we are cooling, cherry picking the one data that supports his asinine view, and ignoring all others.



    Pozdrawiam wszystkich
     
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  2. wwkirk

    wwkirk Celestial

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  3. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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    Manmade is not CO2 Greenhouse effect.

    The CO2 greenhouse effect is relatively small.

    From a 2015 UCB study of forcing.

    [​IMG]

    The CO2 effect (since it is measured over 11 years it is a quasi-TSR) is 0.2 for 22 PPM CO2. The measurement includes all radiative forcing change (not just CO2).

    We can plug the data into F = µ * ln(C/C0)

    0.2/(0.0783) = µ = 346.

    The IPCC µ for instantaneous forcing is 5.35. 5.35* ln(2) = 3.71 W/m2. Or 1°C (assuming 3.7 W/m2 TOS change = 1°C at 255 K).

    There are two problems: the forcing is pretty much a surface effect (bottom 100 meters) so we should use 5.5 W/m2 (288 K)

    Second: the forcing is much less that the IPCC figure and much much less that Hansen's 4°C which includes a 3X "water vapor multiplier".

    Yeah, the coral is bleaching more - but that started before the 2oth century. Which is expected since the LIA was ending.

    The coral bleaching hit it's minimum in the middle of the LIA.

    Because the reefs are on the continental shelves (and weren't there 12000 years ago) they are affected by runoff.

    So two things are happening - they are adapting to warmer temperatures, and being hurt by runoff.

    Given that there are 56 or so types of tropical coral and only 6 temperate ones - the claims that warm temperatures hurt them are dubious.
     
  4. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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    Just to put a point on it:

    3.46 * ln (392/370) = 0.2 W/m2. Which is what UCB measured in their study.

    3.46 * ln (2) = 2.4 W/m2 or about 2/3°C for doubled CO2 from 280 to 560 PPM.

    That is less than the 20th century warming alone.

    And the peak CO2 level isn't going to get close to 560 PPM and 1970 predictions were around 460 PPM.

    Bottom line - less than a third of warming is CO2 caused. This means that other things are driving most of the warming.
     
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  5. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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  6. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    ‘Greatest scam in history’: Greenpeace co-founder thrashes global warming ‘brainwashing’ campaign

    Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore had harsh words for the modern environmental movement, calling global warming “the greatest scam in history” and denouncing the use of “fear and guilt” to push the message.

    “The climate catastrophe is strictly a fear campaign – well, fear and guilt,”

    “You’re afraid you’re killing your children because you’re driving them in your SUV and emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and you feel guilty for doing that. There’s no stronger motivation than those two.”

    "This abomination that is occurring today in the climate issue is the biggest threat to the enlightenment that has occurred since Galileo."

    “Nothing else comes close,” Moore insisted, likening the contemporary environmental movement to “a toxic mix of ideology, of politics and religion.”


    CO2 is the food for life! It’s not pollution,” the would-be heretic declared, claiming that the use of fossil fuels had actually “saved life from an early demise” because CO2 had been declining since the last ice age, with barely enough for the earth’s plant life to sustain itself, until humanity stepped into the breach during the Industrial Revolution.

    (More on the link)

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  7. Castle-Yankee54

    Castle-Yankee54 Celestial

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    So when did he turn against protecting the environment?......20 years ago a fire near Toronto was a global catastrophe.
     
  8. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Never heard about that fire nor saw any indication it harmed anything in the area I resided in twenty years ago, must not have been too global...

    ...
     
  9. Castle-Yankee54

    Castle-Yankee54 Celestial

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    It was only global to greenpeace…….its not likely it affected anything beyond the west end of Lake Ontario.
     
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  10. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Ah yeah lol, many things to Greenpeace are epic or global or so they say lol...

    ...
     
  11. Castle-Yankee54

    Castle-Yankee54 Celestial

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    The smoke and emissions from the fire were no worse than the local factory. They needed some serious environmental regulations in Canada at that time.
     
  12. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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  13. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    A report on 'global warming' from the year 1989 claiming we had only ten years left to reverse things...:Whistle:

    U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked - June 29, 1989

    UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

    Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees,′ ′ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.

    He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.

    .
     
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  14. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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    Well...

    It wasn't in human control to begin with, since it is mostly natural.
     
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  15. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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  16. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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    What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic,' said Joyce Msuya, UN Environment’s Acting Executive Director.

    Gee, not a science study or even an IPCC report.

    UN Environment Director. Political <insert derisive noun here>.

    Just remember that the UN is fueled by government funds.

    All funds corrupt, Government funding corrupts absolutely.
     
  17. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Well Britain is having the hottest Easter weekend in almost a century...Here in my region of the US our weather is quite normal, not hot at all, cool springtime weather...

    Britons soak up glorious Bank Holiday sun and are set for hottest Easter in SEVENTY years - with temperatures hitting 77F tomorrow
    [​IMG]

    Britain is looking forward to the warmest Easter weekend for 70 years, after enjoying the hottest day of the year so far yesterday. Temperatures of 73.9F (23.3C) were recorded in West Sussex, and things are expected to heat up even more as the bank holiday continues, with London likely to hit 25C (77F) tomorrow.

    A Met Office forecaster said: 'It's going to be dry, bright and sunny for nearly everybody this weekend. Temperatures are expected to reach into the 20s every day of the four-day break. It is likely to be the warmest Easter Sunday since 2011 and the warmest Easter weekend since 1949.' Back then, temperatures in Camden Square, London, reached a sweltering 29.4C (84.9F) over the Easter weekend. Pictured: Lucy Laphan, 21, enjoys an early-morning punt down the River Cam in Cambridge as the UK basks in Bank Holiday sunshine (top); Visitors to West Bay on the Dorset coast enjoy the early morning heat (bottom left); There wasn’t a cloud in the sky along the Long Walk in front of Windsor Castle this morning (bottom centre); The sun illuminates the English Channel in Selsey, East Sussex, on Good Friday (bottom right).


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  18. CasualBystander

    CasualBystander Celestial

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    People punished by global warming sure look happy.
     
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  19. AD1184

    AD1184 Honorable

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    The tabloids do love to use Easter as a false bellwether for unseasonal temperatures. The date of Easter is variable; this year it is exceptionally late. We have had a later Easter in only six years in the last seventy.
     
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  20. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    I was wondering if someone would have noticed that about Easter being late this year than it normally is...:laugh8:

    ...
     

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