Iranian tensions

Discussion in 'Present & Current Events' started by nivek, May 11, 2019.

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What do you think will be the outcome of General Soleimani’s death?

  1. Full scale war

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Small scale confrontations

    3 vote(s)
    27.3%
  3. Escalated terrorist attacks

    6 vote(s)
    54.5%
  4. Nothing, the anger will fade

    2 vote(s)
    18.2%
  1. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    Prudent or maybe just crappy missiles. Several of them failed. I doubt it was intentional and bet they would have preferred to kill as many as they could. Remember that errant Scud that wiped out a barracks in Saudi Arabia and killed a couple of hundred service men and women? Those things are unguided about on par with a V2.

    Also, remember all the oil well fires? I can't find a link to what I'm talking about but there was part of a refinery leaking into the Persian Gulf. There were pictures from orbit showing the blight. F-111 precision strike took out some valve that stopped it. Wow. That was almost 20 years ago and those planes far older. Defense contractors haven't been idle and ours hit what they're pointed at. Today's announcement will probably include some sort of reminder.
     
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  2. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    737 Bound for Ukraine Just happens to plummet into Iran dot dot dot.

     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
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  3. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

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    572
    yeah, things are already cooling off. Price of oil is falling back down from the peak few days ago:

    upload_2020-1-8_12-58-53.png
    Oil prices rise after Iraq missile attacks

    Trump would need to double down with one more stupid and unbalanced move if he really wanted war with Iran.
     
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  4. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    No survivors after the Iran plane crash.



    Trump says all is well after Iran attack, Plans to speak to the nation later this morning,
     
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  5. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    Iran Leader, Missile strikes were retaliation, It's like a Slap in the Face to America.



    Iran Claims Victory Despite No US Casualties.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
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  6. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

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    That's all just symbolic stuff, for the show and to please Iranian crowds and Iranian terrorist allies. Attacking with obsolete missiles an airbase, which, like all airports, consists of 80% empty space with obsolete North Korean missiles that can not hit football stadium is just posturing. I bet there were zero US casualties or even zero building damage.

    But, it's all good. Iranian leadership saved face and everybody can now cool off. We are all for piece.

    Now Europeans and Russians can quietly, behind the scene, negotiate restraint on both overheated sides.
     
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  7. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    I will allow you to have the politics of this. Politics are something I don't entirely grasp. The intricacies of how some nations will react to another are fickle at best, If it weren't fickle we wouldn't have these unpredictable outbursts of attack, but that's logic, Not politics and war, and As Time proves, Politics and war don't run off logic.
     
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  8. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

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    What I think happened was, exactly what general Westley Clark said: "I was told we'll attack first Iraq, than Syria, than Iran ..." etc. etc. Well, very similar to what gen./POTUS Eisenhower said in his parting speech 50 years ago. So, Trump got himself into a pickle with impeachment. Although impeachment was and is completely based on false partisan premise, it's still serous trouble. So these unellected shadow gov. officials came to Trump and told him something like: "You are in trouble now and we can help you. You won't get out of this one, it's time for you to divert attention to patriotic cause." Just remember, Trump pulled out of Syria less than a month ago. He's businessman and war is naturally abhorrent to any business person because it is waste of money and hindrance to trading and making profits.

    If you think I am wrong, just go and check CNN's front page, to find any talk of impeachment now :). And only 3 days ago CNN was blasting and salivating on at least 3-5 articles per day just on impeachment alone.
     
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  9. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    PIERS MORGAN: Deluded liberals will rage and Iran will seek revenge but America looks stronger thanks to Trump’s decision to take out the world’s most dangerous terrorist

    I’ve been pondering what to write about Iran’s top military leader Qassem Soleimani ever since he was killed last Friday. Sometimes in this high-speed, social media-driven, fake news-corrupted era, patience is a virtue for journalists, especially opinionated columnists like me, and it makes sense to take a pause before committing to any firm conclusions.

    My initial feeling on hearing the news was one of relief that such an obviously despicable human being was dead.

    My second feeling, one that I suspect most people had whatever their view of President Trump’s decision to order Soleimani’s death via a drone strike on his car convoy at Baghdad airport, was concern at what this meant for world peace.

    But now, five days later, and after Iran hit back at America last night with missile strikes at US bases in Iraq, I know what I think, and it’s this: Trump was absolutely right.

    Let’s be very clear: Soleimani was the world’s most dangerous terrorist. No ‘ifs’, no ‘buts’, no carefully-worded equivocation.

    (more on the link)

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  10. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Iran DELIBERATELY failed to hit US military targets in Iraq missile attack for fear of escalating conflict with Donald Trump, intelligence sources reveal

    Iran deliberately pulled its punches while launching 22 missiles at American military bases in Iraq overnight because it was afraid of provoking Donald Trump, US and European intelligence believe (circled damage to the bases). It comes after Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi said Iran warned him about the attack on the Ain al-Asad and Erbil airbases an hour before they took place - allowing Iraqi and US troops to take shelter - while Finland and Lithuania said they were also informed to get their soldiers to safety.

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed the strikes had delivered a 'slap in the face' to the US while Iranian TV claimed to have killed 80 'American terrorists', though Iraq and America said there were no casualties in the attacks. Foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted that the attack had 'concluded' while praising Iran's 'proportionate' response, adding: 'We do not seek escalation or war.'


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  11. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    I initially thought crappy missiles - easier to mess up an oil refinery with something like that than hit an airbase with lots of empty space inside. But you’re right, it was staged for effect at home. Had they actually killed people they know full well the shit would hit the fan. But oh boy, that was risky.
     
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  12. The shadow

    The shadow The shadow knows!

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    3,378
    trump just won the ultimate game of poker. he showed his hand they called and trump won.
    Well played Mr. President well olayed..
     
  13. Thomas R. Morrison

    Thomas R. Morrison Unapologetic Rationalist & Grand Inquisitor

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    908
    I find it to be deeply disturbing that Americans (even Christians, no less) are conditioned by the state news media to celebrate any and every military action that we take in the world, even in a case like this where we just assassinated a revered general of a nation that we're not (yet, anyway) actually at war with. Here are a few of the reasons why this was a bad thing:

    1.) It'll take 6-12 months to see what the outcome of this will be, so let's stow the party hats until we see how many Americans end up dead over this.

    2.) By assassinating this guy we showed the world that we're just as murderous as the terrorists we claim to despise for being murderous - the only difference is that we use drones and cruise missiles instead of a machete. We could've captured Soleimani and tried him in court, and thereby showed the world that we believe in justice and due process - demonstrating that we're more civilized and just than our geopolitical adversaries. Instead we assassinated him in cold blood, just as our foes assassinated US Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens, and sacrificed any credibility for our claim of moral superiority.

    3.) This assassination was an act of war. Under US Constitutional law, Congress is supposed to vote before we commit an act of war, but thanks to the 2002 authorization granting idiot warmonger liar President G. W. Bush the right to unleash warfare upon any target that's either directly or indirectly related in any conceivable way to the war against Saddam Hussein (who's now dead, and we now know that we were lied into the Iraq war on fake claims of WMDs that both parties and the fake news media dutifully parroted like credulous robots). So we're no longer acting as the Constitutional republic that the founding forefathers intended - now our Presidents are acting more like warmongering monarchs, freely taking military actions with no representational oversight by the People. But I will give credit where credit's due - prior to this Trump has resisted the pressure from the Deep State to wage war, and escalate wars, all around the world...and I'm grateful for that. Hillary Clinton would've slaughtered millions, which is why I'm glad she lost: minimizing the body count is the top priority in my political calculus.

    4.) Soleimani was probably the most effective force against the Islamic State terrorist network, who we oppose when they target us but quietly support when they're furthering our insane and illegal efforts to kill someone we don't like, such as Assad. So this assassination was a major victory for ISIS. And that should make anyone's stomach turn.

    5.) Anyone who thinks that it's impossible for something like this to lead to a world war is only exposing their own ignorance of history and reality. WWI started over the less significant assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The fragile veneer between peace and widespread mass murder is far, far thinner than most of us can comprehend. And the next world war will be the end of us, so anything that increases the chance of that happening by even 1%, is too high of a risk.

    6.) I think it's sad and revolting that humanity hasn't evolved a single millimeter since the public executions and torture programs of the Dark Ages. Now, instead of going to the gallows to get a dark thrill from watching some "bad guy" get murdered by the state, we see the pictures on the tele - but it's the same dark, twisted thrill...one that we should be ashamed of rather than celebrating. That's probably the same dark thrill that will spell the end our species sooner or later, and for that reason perhaps we do deserve to go extinct. For all of our high talk of morality and justice and spirituality, events like this only reveal that we're the same bloodthirsty mindless savages that we've always been, and frankly, every other form of life on this planet would be better off without us.
     
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  14. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

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    572
    @nivek Oh, can we have anther wager / survey.

    Few months back Israeli stealth planes flew into Iran, took few selfies and safely came back home. So, I would like to predict this:

    1) tits for tats with military force is going to continue at subdued rate, like once per every 3 months, while Trump is president.
    2) this is my wager: in a course of low key slap exchange a wing of US F-35 stealth planes will fly into Iran and hit a high value military target with next 12 months.

    And ... things are cooling really fast. Oil price fell another $2.0 since yesterday, and $5.0 off the peak at $71.0. Please note, that Trump hasn't ordered any new Navy carriers to move to Persian Gulf.

    upload_2020-1-9_9-41-54.png
    Oil prices recede after rise on Iraq missile attacks
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  15. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    True, but that vastly oversimplifies the situation at the time.
     
  16. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    Agreed. This hasn't cooled down, they just had to giving us a reason to act right now. They're actively looking for soft spots and I'm sure they'll find something.

    But I'm not sure if they would send manned aircraft when effective stand off weapons are readily available. I think one of the first shots fired in 2003 was from a sub in the Med.
    Naval Weapon of Choice
     
  17. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Getting thrills and celebrating?...Are we dancing in the streets and chanting death to Iran?...Come on Thomas, a bit overly dramatic here maybe?...Saying its a good thing such a dangerous terrorist was taken out is a far cry from getting dark thrills and dancing in the streets over his body...So please tell me where all these celebrations are, because I don't see it or am I missing something?...

    ...
     
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  18. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Iran sent 'multiple messages' to US that its attacks were done

    Iran initiated contact through at least three back channels starting late Tuesday, including through Switzerland and other countries. There were "multiple messages and they were all the same," a person familiar with the matter said. Iran wanted to convey their retaliatory action had ended -- and was waiting to see how the US would respond.

    The back-and-forth communication came as American officials were still determining the extent of the Iranian attacks, and were formulating plans for a response. In response, the US sought to communicate to Iran that its proxies in the region were of equal concern as the activities of the Iranian state, the person familiar said.

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  19. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    So it seems Iran made sure they weren't stepping on the toes of the US with this missile attack, they are the ones walking on egg shells it appears to me...

    ...

    Iran warned the U.S. via a European embassy of missile attack, troops had THREE hours to prepare and Tehran made sure American satellites could detect their plans, report claims

    The United States had three hours warning of the missile strikes after Iran tipped them off via a European embassy and ensured their plans of an attack were easily detectable, U.S. officials claim. The Iranians prepared for the missile strikes on two Iraqi airbases housing American troops by intentionally making sure U.S. intelligence could detect the plans via satellites and eavesdropping, the officials said. Intelligence managed to pick up the threat of strikes about three hours before they actually took place, according to the U.S. officials. One official said the hours-long warning enabled a U.S. military officer to visit one of the bases in Iraq and warn them of when and where the missiles were expected to strike.

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  20. pepe

    pepe Noble

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    An acronym as to what caused WW1 is M-A-I-N with a huge emphasis on the capital M. The power grab was out of control. The trigger was the assassination but I am on the side of the historians who claim the four causes as Military, alliances, imperialism and nationalism probably have it correct in stating it as unavoidable.
     

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