Iranian tensions

Discussion in 'Present & Current Events' started by nivek, May 11, 2019.

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What do you think will be the outcome of General Soleimani’s death?

  1. Full scale war

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Small scale confrontations

    3 vote(s)
    27.3%
  3. Escalated terrorist attacks

    6 vote(s)
    54.5%
  4. Nothing, the anger will fade

    2 vote(s)
    18.2%
  1. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Donald Trump tweets in English and Farsi that he stands by the 'long-suffering people of Iran' and warns Tehran 'the world is watching' the protests as thousands demand the Ayatollah's resignation for the 'unintentional' jetliner missile strike
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    President Donald Trump tweeted a message of support for Iranian protesters on Saturday, saying 'my Administration will continue to stand with you' as thousands decried the government in Tehran. 'To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I've stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage,' Trump tweeted in English and in Farsi. On Saturday vigils for the 176 victims of the downed Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752 took place in Tehran. They later turned into protests against the government, hours after Iranian officials admitted the Revolutionary Guard mistakenly fired a missile at the flight, leading it to crash. Riot police quickly arrived on the scene to control the protesters as they chanted 'Death to the Islamic republic' and were seen firing tear gas into the crowd.

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  2. coubob

    coubob Celestial

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    1,541
    I think its a set up
     
  3. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Ukraine demands punishment for Iran plane downing

    Kiev (AFP) - Ukraine on Saturday demanded that Iran punish those guilty for the downing of a Ukrainian airliner and compensate victims while praising Tehran for cooperating with an "objective" investigation.

    Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensky was due to discuss the incident with his Iranian counterpart President Hassan Rouhani at 5:00 pm local time (1500 GMT), his press office said.

    "We expect Iran... to bring the guilty to the courts," the Ukrainian leader wrote on Facebook, calling also for the "payment of compensation" and the return of remains.

    Tehran admitted Saturday that it accidentally downed the Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) plane, killing all 176 people on board on Wednesday, shortly after launching missiles at bases hosting US forces in Iraq.

    Rouhani said Tehran "deeply regrets this disastrous mistake".

    Tehran has invited the United States, Ukraine, Canada and others to join the crash investigation.

    Kiev said that Iran had cooperated with its experts and it expects an objective probe.

    Tehran has handed Ukrainian experts enough data including "all the photos, videos and other materials" to show the investigation "will be carried out objectively and promptly," Zelensky's office said.

    "The political part of the work is finished," it added.

    It published photos of experts examining the scene and close-ups of holes in the fuselage and shrapnel damage.

    Ukraine said Friday its experts dispatched to Iran had been granted access to the flight's black boxes, debris from the plane, the crash site and to recordings of conversations between the pilot and the airport control tower.

    Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's national security and defence council which is coordinating the probe, told AFP Kiev did not yet have evidence on where the missile was produced, only that it was "launched from Iranian soil."

    Zelensky said earlier that Ukraine hoped the inquiry would be pursued "without deliberate delay and without obstruction."

    He urged "total access" for the 45 Ukrainian experts, and in a tweet also sought an "official apology".

    - 'Absolutely irresponsible' -

    UIA vice president Igor Sosnovsky told a news conference in Kiev on Saturday that Tehran should have closed the airport due to the escalation of regional tensions following the US assassination of a top Iranian general.

    "It's absolutely irresponsible," Sosnovsky said, accusing Iran of failing to protect ordinary citizens while "playing at war."

    "They were obliged to close the airport. Obliged! Then shoot as much as you like."

    Iran said a missile operator shot down the Boeing 737 after mistaking it for a cruise missile at a time when threats were at the highest level.

    The majority of passengers on UIA Flight PS752 from Tehran to Kiev were Iranian-Canadian dual nationals but also included Ukrainians, Afghans, Britons and Swedes

    Many in Kiev have compared the crash to the 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines MH17 killing 298 people over eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian separatists are fighting government forces.

    Moscow has denied the findings of international investigators that a Russian BUK misile hit the Malaysian flight.

    "Iran has shown itself to be more civilised than Russia," pro-western Ukraine MP Volodymyr Ariev wrote on Facebook.

    "Tehran has admitted its guilt in three days while Russia continues to try to get out of it."

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  4. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    a couple hundred dead because of the goddamned funeral
    some unknown number of thousands injured or dead as a result brutal crackdowns of the protests
    176 people dead for committing the sin of trying to leave
    and to put the cherry on top arrest the UK ambassador

    nicely done boys. nobody f***s you like you f**k yourself.
     
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  5. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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  6. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Pro-government gunmen 'open fire on demonstrators in Iran': Activists post videos of bloodshed on the streets of Tehran - hours after Donald Trump warned Iran 'do NOT kill your protesters' amid fury at downing of airliner

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    Local media footage showed a woman with blood pouring from a purported gunshot wound in Tehran amid furious protests against the Ayatollah's regime. Other images showed a 'militiaman' holding a shotgun running away from the scene as a crowd gathered around the woman who was allegedly killed. Thousands have flocked to the streets of the Iranian capital after the government admitted that a passenger jet carrying 176 people had been downed by a missile last week. Demonstrators have been seen tearing posters of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and slain general Qassem Soleimani.

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  7. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

    Messages:
    925
    I've had these exact thoughts also, PF. Maybe it's because we're the same age or maybe it's because we both grew up on the East Coast exposed to Navy culture. Who knows?

    After Saigon fell, the relationship between the US and Vietnam was very strained for about 20 years. In the 1990's US companies began doing a lot of business with Vietnamese companies and the relationship warmed up considerably. Today people are always saying Vietnam is the place to visit because the people, for the most part, love Americans. Most of the population was born after the war so it's all ancient history to them. Besides, they were the winners and we were the losers.

    The outcome has been so different with Iran. They effectively defeated the Shah and kicked out the US yet the ruling regime is just as angry as they were 40 years ago. Truly puzzling.
     
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  8. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

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    572
    Iran's internal dynamics is very different than Vietnam's, but is by no means unique. Iranian's didn't kick out Americans, they kicked out urban secular culture of their own people and imposed agrarian religious dictatorship. Americans were simply supporting a wrong side, purely by chance and bad timing. I am saying that because in Saudi Arabia, US supports feudal dictatorship w/o any problems.

    But Iranian leadership is so hardline, they are prepared to ruin their own economy, in order to keep the grip on authority. That is sure way to the bottom, it's just question how much more they have to go to go all the way.

    Once country's leadership starts caring about economy, and in turn about it's own people, they naturally align with US. Vietnam is friendly because they care about their economy and their people. So dubious dogma of hte past took a backseat.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020
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  9. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

    Messages:
    925
    I think you're right -- the one element that was missing with the conflict in Vietnam was the fanaticism, especially religious fanaticism. Ho Chi Minh and the North Vietnamese hardliners espoused Marxism and supported the leaders in China and the Soviet Union but in reality they really weren't into all the dogma.

    Vietnam was a French colony beginning in the 1880's. In the 1930's and 40's they fought the Japanese. In the 50's they fought the French. In the 1960's and 1970's they fought the Americans. All they really wanted was to be a free and autonomous country that made its own decisions.
     
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  10. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

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    That is exactly right.

    There is one excellent documentary on YouTube where former US secretary of state during Kennedy, Robert McNamara (who's by the way my idol) went to a dinner with top crop of Vietnamese generals. McNamara reported after the dinner that North Vietnamese leadership was simply afraid that US wants to replace French as their masters and just exploit them. While US only anted to prevent another Asian country becoming Soviet client state. US called it "domino theory". What McNamara was bringing on was that there was total luck of communication between two countries and that many of casualties would have been avoided just if there were some "unofficial" channels through which they could had talked and understand each other's position.

    Luckily for the world, during Cuban crisis, there was constant "unofficial", behind the scene, communication between US and Soviets and even some deal was brokered in secret, without any side risking to loose face publicly. Because of that we are all much less radioactive than if things went wrong way.

    But how does one communicate with Iran, when they are so radical and don't care about practical approach.
     
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  11. Sheltie

    Sheltie Noble

    Messages:
    925
    I think there's always a lot going on the behind the scenes unofficially that we don't hear about. There are probably a lot of more moderate voices in Iran that do talk to the US.

    With regards to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US quietly removed its Jupiter missiles from a NATO base in Turkey as part of our agreement with the Russians. We always hear how Krushchev "blinked" during the standoff but in reality it was more of a mutual understanding between the US and the USSR.

    After the French were defeated in Vietnam in 1953, they pulled out with the promise that there would be reunification talks between North and South. The US disregarded this understanding and professed continuing support for South Vietnam. The argument was that we needed to be proactive and nip communism in the bud because we had sat back and done nothing while fascism spread through Europe in the 1930's. Hindsight being 20/20 tells us this was a mistake as the dominoes did not fall.
     
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  12. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    The current regime is behaving a lot like the one they overthrew to get into power in the first place
     
  13. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    Vietnam wanted the right of self determination above all else, and that reaches back a lot longer than European involvement. Chinese hegemony in the region has been their big problem far longer than we have. One of the reasons they had to recognize the value of a market economy and act on it. As I said, they are a practical lot.

    Pretty much what Iran wanted also but they got too much Western influence too fast and they choked on it fearing loss of cultural identity. Understandable. There are loons of that type here in the US. Nothing wrong with you that being beaten with a thick enough Bible won't cure. But the finger waggers in charge in Iran now are as bad or worse than the Shah they replaced. Not practical.

    I'm not sure who has the market in crazy cornered here. Them for their religious lunacy or us for thinking that we can continue to indulge in regime change and nation building to inflict our own views and the end of a .... guided munition. I never really thought much of the phrase saying that the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect a different result, but it applies here.
     
  14. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    makes me want to overthrow up
     
  15. Dejan Corovic

    Dejan Corovic Noble

    Messages:
    572
    What is even more interesting than crisis with Iran is a big picture and, honestly, I find it very strange.

    I read lots of history and the main trend was constant state of war, from tribes of Papua New Guinea to European feudal kingdoms. Countries were on 24/7 watch, so to say, for a provocation just to jump at each other's throats. Actually educated monks were employed in medieval Italy to come up with "bella causa" (beautiful cause) so to give reason to their feudal master to attack his neighbors. I think that some historian found that till modern times there was never a single year without a war between at least two European countries. Something like that.

    But look now. Iran attacked Saudi oil refineries few months back. Than Iran hijacked oil tanker that belonged to UK, I think. Than Iran fired 11 missiles at US base in Iraq. Provocations aplenty, but NO WAR.

    I am kind of wandering if this is a good sign, that times had changed and globalization kicked in so much that everybody's money is invested with everybody's else, so by hurting other's economy you hurt your own pockets? Like a huge chunk of US pension funds is invested in China and China is heavily invested in US Gov. Bonds. Or is it something more mundane and nobody want's to shake oil price too much, which would stall nice economic growth that is enjoyed right now.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020
  16. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

    Messages:
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    Making war on one another is a normal human condition. Our interest in sports is just mock warfare. We like it. Competition is hardwired and, I hate to say it, probably healthy from a certain perspective. Right up until the 20th century anyway when we figured out how to extinguish ourselves.

    About time for something flippant. Didn't Captain Kirk explain all of this to us a long time ago?
     
  17. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Iran Is Left With Few Strategic Options After Trump's Bold Move

    Scoring legitimate foreign-policy wins has not been easy for U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter proclamations notwith-standing. But he's just notched his biggest one yet against Iran.

    Since Trump decided to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has been careful to take only incremental steps away from the hard-fought nuclear deal in hopes that the other signatories would salvage it, but to no avail. Since then, Iran has spent the better part of a year testing U.S. limits. Cyberattacks. Harassing tankers. Shooting U.S. drones. Hitting Saudi oil facilities.

    The U.S. response to all these has been notably restrained, at times infuriatingly so from the perspective of allies. When the U.S. finally did respond with the shock escalation and assas-sination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force, it sent a clear message to Iran that the U.S. was done being cautious.

    Trump has argued in the past that his attimes erratic approach is to his advantage: "I don't want people to know exactly what I'm doing–or thinking. I like being unpredictable. It keeps them off balance." In a world as chaotic as ours, it's a questionable strategy (especially when it comes to dealing with our allies) but one that has paid dividends in this case.

    Had Iran not shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, it's possible the rest of the world would be applauding Iran for its attempt to deescalate tensions by shooting missiles into two U.S. military bases in Iraq and giving enough warning to ensure zero fatalities (though a few U.S. troops were wounded). But as it is, the Iranians' misfire cost them any goodwill that the world was willing to spare Tehran's regime.

    Iran is now under massive pressure, from within and without. The Iranian people are suffering under tightening sanctions that have brought the country's teetering economy to its knees. The European signatories to the deal, while still hoping it can be salvaged in some way, are increasingly reluctant to spend their own political capital for an Iranian leadership that seems just as determined as the U.S. to force the world to choose sides, even at the cost of civilian lives. Germany, France and the U.K. have now triggered the disputeresolution mechanism written into the JCPOA, a clear signal to Iran that they are no longer willing to let Tehran inch closer to a nuclear weapon while they wait for the 2020 election and hope the American people vote Trump out of office.

    At this point, waiting out Trump is the only hope Tehran has left. If Trump wins another term, it will be near impossible for Tehran to avoid renegotiating the nuclear deal if it wishes to escape sanctions. But given just how large the divide between the country's hard-liners and reformists has become, that's a tall order.

    With the benefit of hindsight, it's becoming clear that the biggest mistake Iran's reformists made wasn't signing the JCPOA, but overselling the benefits of that deal to the public (a criticism that can also be lodged against the Obama Administration, if we're being honest). A diplomatic breakthrough never came for Tehran, nor the economic revitalization that was promised them.

    Achieving foreign-policy break-throughs is hard enough. Overpromising and underdelivering on those breakthroughs can be a tragic mistake–a lesson that Iran's leadership, America's and the rest of the world's leaders would do well to heed.

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  18. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    I'd like to put that reporter on that airbase as those missiles were inbound and ask them how relaxed they feel at that moment. I bet 'happy for this outcome' wouldn't have been the response.

    "Had Iran not shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, it's possible the rest of the world would be applauding Iran for its attempt to deescalate tensions by shooting missiles into two U.S. military bases in Iraq and giving enough warning to ensure zero fatalities (though a few U.S. troops were wounded)"

    I understand it the missile strike was intended for internal consumption but it's insane to say that behavior should have been applauded as a means of deescalation. When tensions are that high and everybody's got an itchy trigger finger all bets are off. Mars the God of War would point to 176 souls as proof of this

    And PS - if it was your kid over there with a concussion from it you wouldn't be as dismissive of it as that reporter
     
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