Methods to Combat the COVID-19 Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Present & Current Events' started by Thomas R. Morrison, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. Thomas R. Morrison

    Thomas R. Morrison Administrator

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    The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is sweeping across the world and the official numbers here in the US are grossly misleading. A medically reasonable assumption is that >1% of the US population is already infected and the vast majority of those people haven’t yet begun to exhibit symptoms[1]. If there are 50 official cases in your area then there are probably roughly 50,000 people in your vicinity with the virus right now and it’s communicable for days before symptoms appear.

    Our officials have failed to act and now it’s too late to prevent it from sweeping through our country, but we can learn from the very effective steps that were taken in Taiwan and China and save many predominantly older lives by simply acting intelligently and responsibly right now.

    #1 – Limit your movements and work at home if at all possible. The widespread adoption of social distancing dramatically reduces the contagion rate from over 2 (resulting in the exponential infection rate that we’re seeing right now), to a rate of under 1 – which reverses the spread and turns the rising number of cases into a dropping number of cases.

    #2 – Sanitize your hands frequently and don’t touch your mouth or nose or eyes (a mask and goggles are very useful for this). This thing can survive on plastic and metal surfaces for 3-9 days[1,3] and can remain contagious in microscopic droplets in the air for 3 hours[2] so try not to touch door handles and other publicly used surfaces. If you must do so wear disposable surgical gloves or a paper towel to protect your hands, or at least sanitize your hands promptly after doing so.

    There are some excellent information resources available that can answer most of our questions, so I’m posting them below and will update these links as I find superior information.

    Be safe, be smart, and don’t panic – the vast majority of us can get through this infection without developing any severe symptoms, but the better we do at responding intelligently to this then the more lives we will save, so let’s all do that.

    Here’s a good overview of the pandemic and the powerful effect of the measures that we can all take right now:

    "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now," Tomas Pueyo, Medium, Updated March 13, 2020


    Here’s how to make disinfectants that are effective against the COVID-19 virus using commonly available household chemicals:

    “disinfectants with 62-71% ethanol (rubbing alcohol), 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite (chlorine bleach solution at 1/3 cup per gallon of water) can ‘efficiently’ inactivate coronaviruses within a minute, according to the study.”
    How long can the new coronavirus last on surfaces? | Live Science

    I'm keeping a solution of 1/2 cup of bleach per 1 gallon of water in three sprayers:

    - a mini sprayer with a cap that I keep in my pocket so I can sterilize my hands or anything else that I want to disinfect wherever I go

    - a medium sprayer plus a roll of paper towels and a box of disposable latex surgical gloves in the car so I can disinfect my hands and steeling wheel and door handles whenever I want, and

    - a large sprayer and a box of disposable latex surgical gloves at home for home use

    [1] "Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus," Peter Sullivan, The Hill, March 12, 2020

    "We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said.
    Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus

    [2] "Tests indicate coronavirus can survive in the air" (for three hours), John Bowden, The Hill, March 11, 2019
    Tests indicate coronavirus can survive in the air

    [3] "Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents," Journal of Hospital Infection, March 2020

    "The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days"
    Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents - ScienceDirect
     
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  2. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    I fear we will be in a situation similar to Italy within weeks...I also have recently suspected that I've possibly been exposed to this virus as well from direct contact with an engineer I was working with for a week...He has been traveling via the airlines between Florida, North Carolina and Arkansas for the past few weeks and came to my place of employment to specifically train me on high pressure hydraulic seal replacement for highly expensive and precise machinery...He flew back to Arkansas this past Thursday and now I've heard he's become sick with a respiratory illness but hasn't been tested yet...I hope he only has the flu or a common sinus infection and not this COVID-19 Coronavirus...I don't feel ill, I feel fine currently, prepare for the worst but hope for the best...

    ...
     
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  3. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    I've been tempted to avoid the news as a means of panic prevention. Somehow, It seems unwise in times like this to avoid the news as Someone could miss important messages like lockdowns and quarantines and the like.

    For me, This has been a horrific shitshow. I can't even retreat to my bubble. Because My bubble is uninformed, And lack of information could be the deadliest thing possible right now.
     
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  4. Thomas R. Morrison

    Thomas R. Morrison Administrator

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    Yes - we appear to be about 1-2 weeks behind Italy and given the age of our population and the insignificant national precautions to date, we should expect to follow in Italy's footsteps.

    Given the widespread and unreported prevalence of the virus there's a high probability that he has the virus. If you've been careful about handshakes and general hand sanitization, you might dodge the bullet. But even if you don't, an estimated 80-85% of people who get the virus experience only very mild to moderate symptoms that don't require any medical attention.

    So the odds are in your favor. You may want to wear a mask and surgical gloves when you see your mother, just to be safe.

    When it does hit hard, it comes on with a sudden fever and breathing difficulties. Apparently the first sign of infection is difficulty holding a deep breath for 10 seconds. And it may be wise to take your temperature if you start to feel feverish.

    I'm suggesting that everyone limit their contact with other people as much as possible and as soon as possible - social isolation has proven to be the most powerful weapon to halt the exponential rise of infections and reverse it.
     
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  5. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    I can't help but resound the news the Cdc and Who has been reverberating, It's going to get worse. I know this sounds bad to say, But I look at our numbers versus other countries like Japan, I feel that We here in America weren't and aren't as prepared as some other places. The Death toll kind of illustrates that.

    I feel that with words from the authorities on this being Quips like, "It's going to get worse", and Get ready"
    To be honest with both of you, I've had tamer nightmares than what's pervading in our waking world...
     
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  6. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    She refuses to see anyone, when I run errands for her I leave the bags in her garage, she uses an ultraviolet handheld wand and disinfectant before handling the bags...We only speak via cell phone, I haven't directly spoken to my mother in weeks...

    I was working with this guy for a week straight, practically side by side daily and eating lunches and a couple dinners together...He has also walked through our entire facility before the owner of the company banned all outside visits, even delivery drivers are now banned from entering the facility at work u til further notice...

    ...
     
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  7. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    Just remember, I know I'm the King of corny, But hear me out, The first and best medicine is love. Love isn't going to cure the Coronavirus, But it's a great comfort, Don't forget amid panic and fear to shower your family with love.

    I may sound like a corny precious moments card. But any comfort in times as difficult as this. It would be worth their weight in gold.
     
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  8. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    There's love and then there's common sense, lol, I fully understand and agree with her choice in self-imposed lock down in her house, she is 82yo and is healthy...I would hate it if she fell ill and died because of his coronavirus, best thing for her to do is exactly what she's doing...

    ...
     
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  9. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    Last night Dr.Fauci downplayed the use and effectiveness of masks unless they were of a specific type. At one time I had to have a license to deal with asbestos abatement and the masks we used were only effective if you were clean shaven. Using one without a snug fit left me gagging.

    He also said we're better off washing properly with soap and water and using things like rubbing alcohol on readily and easily cleaned surfaces. I've always been careful to wash my hands frequently - sanitizer was only used on waterless job sites.

    I've always been horrified to hear people on their phones in bathroom stalls. That's just nasty pandemic or no. In fact, how many times have you seen someone go straight from the crapper right out the door without even washing? Blaaargh. No matter what there's a significant percentage that never did and never will 'get it.'

    I use rubbing alcohol on a lot of stuff, or used to anyway. Don't know what the hell I'll use now.
     
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  10. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    I get that that's possibly the wisest thing to do, I'm just a different kind of person, I see things differently than a lot of people would. If My wife gets Coronavirus. I'm not going to let her Go through it alone. I get that fear is a great motivator. But the Vows were in sickness and in health. Yes. If she gets it, And I kiss on her while she's sick, I will get it too. But, That's what's so scary about this situation. Extenuating circumstances can make this unavoidable. Just As I will be with my wife. how many parents would refuse their children care if somehow they became sick with this. Love doesn't deny Danger, But If necessary It will risk it.

    I wouldn't not be there to hold her if she was sick. I know I sound insane. But If I denied my wife care and affection if she got sick, Every day of my life afterword would have no meaning, Because I wouldn't have been True to myself or her.

    None of these words may make sense. They may even sound unwise to the ear. But If I can't love my family. What is the value of being alive? If she gets sick, I will lay next to her and wait for my turn. That's just the truth in things.

    [​IMG]

    People have done this since the beginning, I couldn't deny any of my family and feel like me.. If it is my fate to Die, Then that will happen I suppose, But the moment we stop living, We are dead already aren't we?


    I say this because She works in Social services, She is at high risk to contract it,
    I am almost on a different page than most people, I'm not fearing "IF" I am Preparing for "When"
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
  11. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    I honestly am expecting very soon, We will start getting reports of people here, "as in This community, AE," getting this. It would be some kind of miracle if no one in the forums got it.
     
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  12. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    Granted Brother Nivek, Even The CDC says self-isolation even in the home is the wisest move. I don't disagree that that is the wisest possible move. I just don't know If I could allow Sam to suffer if she got sick. I may be one of those people who catch it because they can't refuse healthcare and interaction with a loved one. However, I would perfectly accept this if Sam isolated herself from me or me from her. "Which is possible. Sam is a logical thinker, She's not the romantic I am either. She most likely will isolate herself before I came up with the idea too.

    [​IMG]
    Separate yourself from other people and animals in your home
    • Stay away from others: As much as possible, you should stay in a specific room and away from other people in your home. Also, you should use a separate bathroom, if available.
    • Limit contact with pets & animals: You should restrict contact with pets and other animals while you are sick with COVID-19, just like you would around other people. Although there have not been reports of pets or other animals becoming sick with COVID-19, it is still recommended that people sick with COVID-19 limit contact with animals until more information is known about the virus.
    • When possible, have another member of your household care for your animals while you are sick. If you are sick with COVID-19, avoid contact with your pet, including petting, snuggling, being kissed or licked, and sharing food. If you must care for your pet or be around animals while you are sick, wash your hands before and after you interact with pets and wear a facemask. See COVID-19 and Animals for more information.
     
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  13. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    That's the thing, my mother isn't sick and I fully support her choice to self-isolate while she is still healthy and well...IF she gets this virus I'll do all I can for her as I am doing all I can for her now, I'd rather she be isolated for a few weeks or months and stay healthy than get this virus and likely die from it due to her age...

    ...
     
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  14. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    I grant, At her age. She should be doing everything realistically possible to avoid this. Part of my panic over this is my parents are in their late sixties.

    I honestly had it really hard when my grandparents died last year. I can't imagine being able to deal with the loss of one of my parents. If I lost one of them, I can't promise the stress wouldn't kill me, But even if it didn't, Losing one of them would change me forever. There are so much dread and fear in the air. :(

    For what it's worth brother, I wish Her and you the best. And Realistically, She is doing the best thing she can do right now, make sure she does have enough resources though. Like food medicine and such.
     
  15. Thomas R. Morrison

    Thomas R. Morrison Administrator

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    Ok so the bad news is that this thing is spreading like wildfire - the official counts dramatically lag the actual cases so we can get a more accurate assessment of the number of infected people in the US by multiplying the official cases by a factor of around 1000. With that in mind, here's the exponential spread in the official counts:

    ScreenHunter_1884 Mar. 15 18.27.jpg

    The good news is that 80-85% of the people who get infected only come down with mild to moderate symptoms that don't even require medical attention. And even among the people who do require medical attention, here are the prospects of surviving this virus - even among the elderly a fatality is the exception rather than the rule:

    ScreenHunter_1883 Mar. 15 18.23.jpg

    So it's the sheer number of infections that leads to so many people dying from this virus. Statistically, anyone who gets infected has a really good shot at surviving it. But the infection rate is expected to be around 50-70% of the population, so even a small percentage of fatalities adds up.
     
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  16. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    I think we shouldn't be too complacent yet, this virus has the ability to mutate and evolve to become even more deadly, especially with new territory in the West to spread and grow...I think we must remain diligent and stop this from spreading any further, if that's even possible now...It could be everywhere now and if it is we should expect a huge flare up of infected and subsequent deaths within 2 to 4 weeks...

    ...
     
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  17. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    At 70 percent of the global population, allowing for 2 percent mortality rate. that's 98 million deaths.
    I wonder if it's okay to stop worrying on the basis that the worry alone will kill me.
     
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  18. Thomas R. Morrison

    Thomas R. Morrison Administrator

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    That's right. We should do everything that we can in order to curb the spread of the infection - if we do that now then we'll save a whole lot of lives.

    It is basically all around us right now and things are going to get dicey within 2-4 weeks (to me it looks like we're trailing Italy by about 2 weeks).

    But it's also good to see the real level of risk so people don't shit their pants. For nearly everyone infected under 60 with a healthy immune system, the symptoms will range from undetectable to those of a prolonged seasonal flu. But we can save a whole lot of lives among the elderly generation by self-isolating now, and by taking sensible disinfection measures. So we should absolutely do that right now.

    That's about right. But our actions taken right now can stem the spread and lower the mortality rate.

    Worrying is useless - I prefer to exercise prudence. What we do right now matters - both for ourselves and for millions of others. So act responsibly, but there's no point in freaking out.
     
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  19. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    I just hope it doesn't mutate into something more deadly...


    My nephew, who is in the Army, arrived back in the country this weekend after serving a year in Afghanistan...They are keeping him and those who flew back with him in quarantine for 2 weeks before he's allowed to come home...So he's currently at Fort Bragg in quarantine...

    ...
     
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  20. Shadowprophet

    Shadowprophet Truthiness

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    It eventually will, That is a given, kind of like the flu does, But I don't expect it to any time soon, Maybe we will even have a vaccine by the time it mutates. Giving us a better immunity to it.

    I mean, It's Sars, There are like four variants of Sars right now, So, yeah, It's likely to mutate at some point.
     

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