Possible Triple Phased Superstorm

Caeldeth

Noble
Nivek, I'd be keeping my eye on this storm if I were you. Models are now bringing it in more west with a very heavy precipitation field. You might get a hell of a lot of snow.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
If I remember your location correctly, another 25 mile shift west will bring you right into the shit show.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
960 already off the coast of the carolinas.. I'm getting concerned for the coast points north and NYC and Boston. I have a hunch this storm may be a sub 930 by the time it hits Boston. That would be about the equivalent to a very strong category 3 hurricane. Coastal errosion is likely. Wouldn't be surprised at all if there is some storm surge either.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
I don't like how they've put up weenie snowmaps and not stressed the potential for a major storm... recipe for disaster. This is why I don't watch the weather channel. They hug the GFS and it's ALWAYS wrong with Miller A type storms. The GFS is literally the only model showing it going east instead of west. So that one out of 60 models that show otherwise.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
Soon we'll be starting Cyclogenesis over Cuba if this trend keeps up.
Arctic front keeps dropping further and further south. 0z GFS running...and my Goodness is it embedded in warm tropical air.
 

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nivek

As Above So Below
After the big chill... comes the big storm:

Major blizzard could bring more than a foot of snow and 'hurricane-force' winds to the Northeast following record-breaking low temperatures

On top of frigid temperatures across the Eastern Seaboard and Midwest, a blizzard is expected to bring snow and wind to the Atlantic Coast later this week.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
Here we go! Show is about to begin. In met class we would call triple phasers "the great white unicorn".. well here is the unicorn. I've circled all three pieces of energy. Show will begin sometime tonight and crank in intensity around supper time tomorrow for the South.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
So beautiful...

See all those dots of red? Those are imbedded thunderstorms in a blizzard. Incredible.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
Look at the final triple phase. Look at the snow to the north in New York State. Then watch it disappear. The storm just explodes from 968 to 951 in 3 hours after it eats that energy making it meteorological bomb.

Also, due to the tropical nature of this storm. And since it developed in Cuba, it will have a very, very warm core like a hurricane. This will make it form an eye and an eye wall exactly like a hurricane. So beautiful. Will probably never see something like this again in my life. Have to savor the moment.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
When storms bomb and bundle all their energy, the usually make left turns and head poleward (at least winter storms make left turns...hurricanes make right turns and recurve poleward). For me, I will be watching the SPC mesoanalysis page and the HRRR come game time and watch where the main SLP is forming, how many other lows to the east are vying for attention and energy, and go from there. If the main low starts bombing close to the coast off of GA and SC, it will not escape out to sea and will be a big hit for many.

One thing to note when looking at the 500mb charts, there is not a whole lot of confluence to the north to shunt the storm and suppress it, but there isnt any real blocking either to slow the flow and allow this to "wait" and phase. The southern stream is progressive and the timing has to be virtually perfect to let the northern branch capture the storm and explode it northwestward. This is one of the more trickiest timing storms to track in a long time.
 

Toroid

Founding Member
Well, they used the word bomb in the article title.
US weather: Deadly cold continues to grip the country | Daily Mail Online
Brace yourselves for a 'weather bomb': Deadly, bone-chilling cold continues to grip the US and break record-low temperatures as the Northeast prepares for heavy snow
  • National Weather Service issued wind chill advisories and freeze warnings on Tuesday covering a vast area across the US
  • The bone-chilling cold is gripping the vast area from South Texas to Canada and from Montana through to New England
  • On top of frigid temperatures, a major blizzard is expected to bring more than a foot of snow and 'hurricane-force' winds to the Northeast later this week
  • School districts in Iowa, Massachusetts, Indianapolis and Northeast Ohio canceled or delayed the start of classes on Tuesday
  • The cold has been attributed in at least eight deaths in the past week
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5228659/Deadly-bone-chilling-cold-continues-grip-US.html#ixzz535Ghxwnk
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
47B557E100000578-5228659-image-a-10_1514935252031.jpg
 

CasualBystander

Celestial
Caeldeth you have beating this drum for about a week.

Looks like something serious is going to happen.

Just glad it is going to miss DC by and large.

You seem to have the pressure about right too.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
Caeldeth you have beating this drum for about a week.

Looks like something serious is going to happen.

Just glad it is going to miss DC by and large.

You seem to have the pressure about right too.

DC is not out of the woods just yet. This will be a "nowcast" storm. It's so strong computer models and weathermen who have been forecasting for many years don't even know what this storm is going to do. They simply have never seen anything like it.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
DC will be hit. My guess is the lower end you will end up with 3 inches. Higher end, if any blocking sets up 12-18. You will be dealing with very strong winds either way.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
Impact will all depend on weather the third and final piece of energy acts as a kicker out to sea or if it acts as a puller and keeps it closer west to the coast. I simply don't know, I've never seen something like this. I'll know by lunchtime. The energy has started it' march up the coast as of right now.
 
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