Possible Triple Phased Superstorm

Caeldeth

Noble
As some of you may know I studied meteorology in college. My specialty was severe winter weather. Whenever I see an extreme cold snap I think to myself "there is going to be a blizzard when the cold let's go" Well, the period from the 3rd and 4th of January when the polar vortex pulls out is getting me very intrigued. Every single weather model is showing a triple phased Superstorm that could very well drop 2 - 3 feet of snow and some spots 3 - 4 feet from NJ to Maine with hurricane force winds. This is an extremely rare weather event and a triple phased storm has only ever happened once in recorded human history which was the Great Superstorm of 93'. Right now I am giving this storm a 50/50 shot at development but I will keep my eye on it for sure. Here is what are the models are looking like for this time period.

In the image you are seeing a classic double barreled low. One very strong parent low off the coast and another very strong low south of NYC. They will merge to create a triple phased winter hurricane off the coast of NYC and absoloutly crush the coast and interior portions of New England. The pieces are there, the cold is there, all three jets are already in play. It's all a matter of when this storm pops it's ugly head out of the gulf and if phases quickly enough to make it go nuclear. Stay tuned.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
Here are the snow totals for this possible storm. NJ and NYC get CRUSHED. I see little lollypops of 40+ inches for them. Then pretty much everybody else gets close to two feet of snow.

In weather terminology this is what you would call a HECS. Historic East Coast Snowstorm. Still a week out though and details will be fine tuned before the event.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
As a weather freak. This gives me a hard on. So impressive looking. I've never seen anything like it in all my years.
 

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nivek

As Above So Below
The farmers almanac told me this was coming when I read it's forecast for the winter back a few months ago, not this particular system but overall an unusually harsh cold snowy icy winter this season...
 

Caeldeth

Noble
The European model is showing a 947MB low just south of NYC after it has become TRIPLE PHASED. Scratch the HECS. Make it a BIBLICAL EAST COAST SNOWSTORM!

Strongest storm I have ever seen and I have been forecasting storms for 20 years. Get ready folks!

I repeat

Euro control is 947 mb near Long Island. Life changing storm on the control.
 
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Caeldeth

Noble
The farmers almanac told me this was coming when I read it's forecast for the winter back a few months ago, not this particular system but overall an unusually harsh cold snowy icy winter this season...

Yes I remember reading this as well. But I did not expect I once in every 200 year storm to be on the horizon. I'm going to have fun tracking this beast.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
Fucking beast. We are talking 120+ mph winds with ungodly snow amounts of up to 8 inches to a foot an hour of snow.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
There may be enough moisture coming off the gulf Thursday to make some wet snow flakes in TAMPA. Amazing the dynamics of this storm if it pans out. Tampa will be dealing with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes then a few hours later dealing with snow. Insane.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
There may be enough moisture coming off the gulf Thursday to make some wet snow flakes in TAMPA. Amazing the dynamics of this storm if it pans out. Tampa will be dealing with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes then a few hours later dealing with snow. Insane.

I was in Florida once when it snowed, flurries but lasted a half hour or so around Orlando...
 

Dundee

Fading day by day.
I am jealous, we don't get much in the way of crazy weather round here. Would be an awesome event to experience.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
New models come out at 10pm. I will have an update then. I like to get a look at every model before I make I call. This afternoon had the storm headed out to sea on the GFS. GFS has a hard time dealing with Miller A type storms so I am waiting for the Euro and UK models. They have a really good handle on these types of storms.

But, this is what it looked like. I've outlined the two pieces of energy to the south. The main piece of energy is that big red monster. That's the northern vort. Pretty much what steers the storm. This model run has the other two pieces of energy coming in a little slow so it didnt triple phase allowing it to go out to sea. Still early and I fully expect the models to flip flop until the pieces of energy can be sampled by hurricane recon. For this fucker to ride the coast all three pieces of energy need to combine and become one.
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
UK model holds strong. Phases off yhd coast of Cape Cod and goes nuclear. Direct hit for ALL of the East Coast including inland areas. Everybody gets hammered. Would post the image but it's a payed model and it won't let me save it.
 
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Toroid

Founding Member
UK model holds strong. Phases off yhd coast of Cape Cod and goes nuclear. Direct hit for ALL of the East Coast including inland areas. Everybody gets hammered.
Do you think the media are being ordered to downplay the severity of the situation? There's been no government announcements like they have before a hurricane hits. Does the amount of ice at the north pole dictate how cold it'll get in the states during winter?
 

Caeldeth

Noble
Do you think the media are being ordered to downplay the severity of the situation? There's been no government announcements like they have before a hurricane hits. Does the amount of ice at the north pole dictate how cold it'll get in the states during winter?

The Weather Channel briefly talked about the potential for this storm but it wasn't much. Triple Phased Nor'easters are very rare, in such only one has ever been observed. They are probably playing cautious as I said I still only give this a 50/50 shot at development. They are called Superstorms because they are a hybrid hurricane/noreaster.

Lack of sea ice and a warmer artic is what causes a weakening in the polar vortex and that's what causes it to dip south to the states.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
This morning's run. Look at the last map I posted and you can see all three jets aren't murged, but on this run you can see all three have murged to create a Superstorm. Still needs to come in more west for a direct hit but the rule of thumb with meteorology and winter weather is that all big storms come west.

NOAA had a very brief write up on this storm this morning too.

"Miller type-A storm that could ride up the coast and potentially be far enough west to produce significant snow and blizzard conditions around Thursday."
 

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Caeldeth

Noble
I just can't believe how many gefs members blow this storm up to a sub 970 before it even reaches the benchmark. I've never seen such a thing other than with a tropical hurricane.
 

Caeldeth

Noble
Hurricane Recon will be sampling this storm tonight or tomorrow. Depending on when all three pieces of energy get into North America. Very rarely does hurricane recon sample winter storms.
 

SOUL-DRIFTER

Life Long Researcher
Well, I am not working and have no where to go for a few weeks yet.
I have plenty of popcorn to enjoy the show when the storm hits. But how much of Wisconsin will be effected?
 
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