Wars & Rumours of Wars

Remember Gulf 1 in which we staged a huge demonstration with a Marine amphibious unit making it appear as if we were about to hit the beaches ? We even had two Iowa class battleships out there blowing the crap out of ... whatever they wanted to blow the crap out of (that's how they work....). That most certainly fixed the Iraqi's attention and they prepared for it. Meanwhile Stormin' Norman's armored schwerpunkt came boiling out of the 'impassable' desert from an unexpected direction. Yes, I know it does not literally translate to 'armored fist' but you get the point.

I've been going on about B2s and bunker busters here for weeks. Now those are in the news cycle and the concept is being bandied out by people that didn't know what a B2 was until yesterday.

Ever wonder if that's a distraction also ?

Beepers, shmeepers: Israel had even better surprises for Iran, envoy to US says

.......he says: “We’ve pulled off a number of surprises — when the dust settles — you’re going to see some surprises on [last] Thursday night and Friday, that will make the beeper operation almost seem simple.”

I read this morning that Iran has told it's citizens to not use/delete a WhatsApp from their phones. Obviously they have some concerns, possibly well founded.

I can't help but wonder if all the bunker buster talk is a distraction, a big loud one - although admittedly not quite as big an loud as Wisconsin and Missouri. A ground operation to take out that underground site is not out of the realm of possibilities, used in conjunction with airstrikes or not. The IDF has practiced smaller versions of this before and obviously have very capable boots on the ground in Iran right now. I wonder what we'll know Friday that we don't know now.

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Remember Gulf 1 in which we staged a huge demonstration with a Marine amphibious unit making it appear as if we were about to hit the beaches ? We even had two Iowa class battleships out there blowing the crap out of ... whatever they wanted to blow the crap out of (that's how they work....). That most certainly fixed the Iraqi's attention and they prepared for it. Meanwhile Stormin' Norman's armored schwerpunkt came boiling out of the 'impassable' desert from an unexpected direction. Yes, I know it does not literally translate to 'armored fist' but you get the point.
pigfarmer said:
I've been going on about B2s and bunker busters here for weeks. Now those are in the news cycle and the concept is being bandied out by people that didn't know what a B2 was until yesterday.

Ever wonder if that's a distraction also ?

Beepers, shmeepers: Israel had even better surprises for Iran, envoy to US says

.......he says: “We’ve pulled off a number of surprises — when the dust settles — you’re going to see some surprises on [last] Thursday night and Friday, that will make the beeper operation almost seem simple.”

I read this morning that Iran has told it's citizens to not use/delete a WhatsApp from their phones. Obviously they have some concerns, possibly well founded.

I can't help but wonder if all the bunker buster talk is a distraction, a big loud one - although admittedly not quite as big an loud as Wisconsin and Missouri. A ground operation to take out that underground site is not out of the realm of possibilities, used in conjunction with airstrikes or not. The IDF has practiced smaller versions of this before and obviously have very capable boots on the ground in Iran right now. I wonder what we'll know Friday that we don't know now.

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Iran is far more populous then Iraq. As well Iran is mostly mountains, while Iraq is mostly plains. Its one thing to dominate air, another to wage guerilla war. If war with Iran turned into guerilla war it would last far longer then war in Iraq. Taking into account percentagy or religious hardliners in Iran's population probably it would be very similar to Aftanistan.

For Iran's leadership to disappear from radar they just need to stop using mobile phones. On the other hand, Iranian regime lacs popularity and it would quickly topple if nudged, its already showing signs of decay.

But, undeniably, great strategic opportunity is there. Taking Iran would starve Chine of oil and bring NATO on Russian border :). Nothing Trumps double-whammy.
 
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Russia warns Trump against bombing Iran and says Israel is 'millimetres away' from sparking nuclear 'catastrophe' with its airstrikes as Trump considers US military attack​

Russia's top brass has issued stark warnings to US President Donald Trump, urging the White House to stay out of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran as American military assets bear down on the region.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared that US military assistance to Israel could 'radically destabilise the Middle East' as Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the world was 'millimetres from catastrophe'.

The head of the SVR foreign intelligence service, Sergei Naryshkin, described the situation as 'critical' and added his agents were 'in contact with special intelligence services of both Iran and Israel'.

Vladimir Putin meanwhile has reiterated his willingness to act as a mediator between the warring parties as he seeks to position Moscow as a regional power broker.

Fears that the United States could wade into yet another war in the Middle East grew yesterday when a security source revealed Trump and his team were considering a number of options, including joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

On Tuesday, Trump openly mused on social media about killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but said 'We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.'

Russia's insistence that the US must exercise restraint in the conflict comes after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to punish Israel for its strikes, dismissed Trump's call for 'unconditional surrender' and said that an American military intervention would lead to 'irreparable consequences'.

(More on the link)

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Netanyahu: ‘We will not let the world’s most dangerous regime get the world’s most dangerous weapon’​

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a forceful statement Wednesday on X, formerly Twitter, expressing his government’s commitment to stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions amid the ongoing military campaign.

“We will not let the world’s most dangerous regime get the world’s most dangerous weapon,” Netanyahu wrote.

The post comes as Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian nuclear and military sites in and around Tehran in what the IDF calls a strategic campaign to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile capabilities.

The statement quickly drew a flood of responses online, including support from some Iranian users.

One reply read: “As an Iranian I want to thank you for the incredible hard and important task you’ve took on. From Cyrus the Great to Benjamin Netanyahu. What times to be alive.”

The Israeli government has framed its strikes in Iran as both defensive and preemptive. Netanyahu’s comment adds to a growing list of official declarations positioning the conflict not just as a matter of national defense, but global security.


View: https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1935410480140472709


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Its not clear from the news have both sides run out of missiles?

Has intensity of missile attacks subsided?

Presumably, Iran should run out of missiles shortly, because it can't resuply in large quantities from outside.
 
nivek said:

Russia warns Trump against bombing Iran and says Israel is 'millimetres away' from sparking nuclear 'catastrophe' with its airstrikes as Trump considers US military attack​

Russia's top brass has issued stark warnings to US President Donald Trump, urging the White House to stay out of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran as American military assets bear down on the region.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared that US military assistance to Israel could 'radically destabilise the Middle East' as Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the world was 'millimetres from catastrophe'.

The head of the SVR foreign intelligence service, Sergei Naryshkin, described the situation as 'critical' and added his agents were 'in contact with special intelligence services of both Iran and Israel'.

Vladimir Putin meanwhile has reiterated his willingness to act as a mediator between the warring parties as he seeks to position Moscow as a regional power broker.

Fears that the United States could wade into yet another war in the Middle East grew yesterday when a security source revealed Trump and his team were considering a number of options, including joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

On Tuesday, Trump openly mused on social media about killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but said 'We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.'

Russia's insistence that the US must exercise restraint in the conflict comes after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to punish Israel for its strikes, dismissed Trump's call for 'unconditional surrender' and said that an American military intervention would lead to 'irreparable consequences'.

(More on the link)

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Ah. The same Russia that's always rattling it's nuclear sabre and the same Russia that had no problems endangering Chernobyl and other nuclear facilities inside Ukraine.
 

Iran Drops Cluster Munitions on Israeli Civilians: A Legal and Strategic Flashpoint​

(Excerpt)

Iran just crossed a major line. On June 19th, they are reported to have launched a ballistic missile toward Israel that carried a cluster munition warhead. When it exploded in the sky over Israeli territory at around 7,000 feet, it scattered about 20 smaller bomblets across an eight-kilometer radius. These things didn’t hit military targets—they hit neighborhoods. One detonated inside a residential home in the town of Azor. Others landed near the Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, where dozens of civilians were injured and the hospital had to partially evacuate. Iran knew what it was doing. This was a calculated strike aimed at civilian infrastructure.

International humanitarian law still applies. The Geneva Conventions require all combatants to distinguish between civilian and military targets and to avoid attacks that are indiscriminate or disproportionate. Dropping cluster munitions near homes and hospitals absolutely violates that principle. There’s no gray area here. Iran’s latest strike may not just be a violation of the rules—it could very well be classified as a war crime.

(More on the link)

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nivek said:

Iran Drops Cluster Munitions on Israeli Civilians: A Legal and Strategic Flashpoint​

(Excerpt)

Iran just crossed a major line. On June 19th, they are reported to have launched a ballistic missile toward Israel that carried a cluster munition warhead. When it exploded in the sky over Israeli territory at around 7,000 feet, it scattered about 20 smaller bomblets across an eight-kilometer radius. These things didn’t hit military targets—they hit neighborhoods. One detonated inside a residential home in the town of Azor. Others landed near the Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, where dozens of civilians were injured and the hospital had to partially evacuate. Iran knew what it was doing. This was a calculated strike aimed at civilian infrastructure.

International humanitarian law still applies. The Geneva Conventions require all combatants to distinguish between civilian and military targets and to avoid attacks that are indiscriminate or disproportionate. Dropping cluster munitions near homes and hospitals absolutely violates that principle. There’s no gray area here. Iran’s latest strike may not just be a violation of the rules—it could very well be classified as a war crime.

(More on the link)

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That's sign Iran is desperate.
 
Guessing time . . . Trump will not send US troops to join Israel in attacking Iran. He'll stick to aiding it as proxy war. The reason being is the since Trump doesn't want to help EU fight Russia, EU will not help Trump fight Iran. As well, US intelligence believes that Iran is not close to making bomb, so case for war is not too strong. Its more that Israel wants to drag US into getting rid of it's foe, then there is a big problem.
 
I don't think the US is dependent on EU assistance to do whatever it chooses to (or not) in Iran unless of course we need more posing for pictures and proclamations written on hot air. DT said he is concerned it'll become another Libya and he's probably not wrong about that. You break it you bought it. Frankly there's already been enough Forever War. Yet, this is an historic opportunity. DT can tap the brakes a bit, I don't mind. Without doubt Israel is receiving all sorts of clandestine assistance.

Those bunker busters were designed for exactly this purpose and they could be employed at little or low risk, that's not the problem. Then what ? You'll have Iran shooting missiles at US bases and everything else that we will then be responsible for intercepting. Typically some will penetrate and there will be additional loss of life.

Remember this that we don't need any more of ? Petroleum and Water Department honors fallen from 1991 missile attack

I've read that Iran's 'big surprise' this week came down to being thrilled at how much money they saved by switching their car insurance to GEICO :) Israel's big surprise they hinted at might look something like this:

Ratcheting up threats, defense minister says Iran’s Khamenei ‘cannot continue to exist’
 
Dejan Corovic said:
Guessing time . . . Trump will not send US troops to join Israel in attacking Iran. He'll stick to aiding it as proxy war. The reason being is the since Trump doesn't want to help EU fight Russia, EU will not help Trump fight Iran. As well, US intelligence believes that Iran is not close to making bomb, so case for war is not too strong. Its more that Israel wants to drag US into getting rid of it's foe, then there is a big problem.
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There are suggestions that Iran's nuclear programme was in disarray in recent years, and there was no focused effort to build a nuclear bomb, despite the continued existence of its nuclear facilities, and its stockpile of enriched uranium. However, now that Israel has launched a war against Iran, if the Iranian regime holds, and its nuclear facilities are not destroyed, then building a nuclear bomb may become a priority again. It is a dangerous gamble.

www.economist.com

Was Iran really racing for nukes?

Israel says so, but there are grounds for doubt
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 

The new map that could be guiding Trump's Middle East moves​

President Donald Trump came back into office promising no new wars. So far, he’s kept that promise. But he’s also left much of Washington — and many of America’s allies — confused by a series of rapid, unexpected moves across the Middle East.

In just a few months, Trump has reopened backchannels with Iran, then turned around and threatened its regime with collapse. He’s kept Israel at arm’s length — skipping it on his regional tour — before signaling support once again. He lifted U.S. sanctions on Syria’s Islamist leader, a figure long treated as untouchable in Washington. And he made headlines by hosting Pakistan’s top general at the White House, even as India publicly objected.

For those watching closely, it’s been hard to pin down a clear doctrine. Critics see improvisation — sometimes even contradiction. But step back, and a pattern begins to emerge. It’s not about ideology, democracy promotion, or traditional alliances. It’s about access. Geography. Trade.

More specifically, it may be about restarting a long-stalled infrastructure project meant to bypass China — and put the United States back at the center of a strategic economic corridor stretching from India to Europe.

The project is called the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor, or IMEC. Most Americans have never heard of it. It was launched in 2023 at the G20 summit in New Delhi, as a joint initiative among the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the European Union. Its goal? To build a modern infrastructure link connecting South Asia to Europe — without passing through Chinese territory or relying on Chinese capital.

IMEC’s vision is bold but simple: Indian goods would travel west via rail and ports through the Gulf, across Israel, and on to European markets. Along the way, the corridor would connect not just trade routes, but energy pipelines, digital cables, and logistics hubs. It would be the first serious alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative — a way for the U.S. and its partners to build influence without boots on the ground.

But before construction could begin, war broke out in Gaza.

The October 2023 Hamas attacks and Israel’s military response sent the region into crisis. Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel fell apart. The Red Sea became a warzone for shipping. And Gulf capital flows paused. The corridor — and the broader idea of using infrastructure to tie the region together — was quietly shelved.

That’s the backdrop for Trump’s current moves. Taken individually, they seem scattered. Taken together, they align with the logic of clearing obstacles to infrastructure. Trump may not be drawing maps in the Situation Room. But his instincts — for leverage, dealmaking and unpredictability — are removing the very roadblocks that halted IMEC in the first place.

His approach to Iran is a prime example. In April, backchannels were reopened on the nuclear front. In May, a Yemen truce was brokered — reducing attacks on Gulf shipping. In June, after Israeli strikes inside Iran, Trump escalated rhetorically, calling for Iran’s "unconditional surrender." That combination of engagement and pressure may sound erratic. But it mirrors the approach that cleared a diplomatic path with North Korea: soften the edges, then apply public pressure.

Meanwhile, Trump’s temporary distancing from Israel is harder to miss. He skipped it on his regional tour and avoided aligning with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s continued hard-line approach to Gaza. Instead, he praised Qatar — a U.S. military partner and quiet mediator in the Gaza talks — and signaled support for Gulf-led reconstruction plans. The message: if Israel refuses to engage in regional stabilization, it won’t control the map.

Trump also made the unexpected decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria’s new leader, President Ahmad al-Sharaa — a figure with a past in Islamist groups, now leading a transitional government backed by the UAE. Critics saw the move as legitimizing extremism. But in practice, it unlocked regional financing and access to transit corridors once blocked by U.S. policy.

Even the outreach to Pakistan — which angered India — fits a broader infrastructure lens. Pakistan borders Iran, influences Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and maintains ties with Gulf militaries. Welcoming Pakistan’s military chief was less about loyalty, and more about leverage. In corridor politics, geography often trumps alliances.

None of this means Trump has a master plan. There’s no confirmed strategy memo that links these moves to IMEC. And the region remains volatile. Iran’s internal stability is far from guaranteed. The Gaza conflict could reignite. Saudi and Qatari interests don’t always align. But there’s a growing logic underneath the diplomacy: de-escalate just enough conflict to make capital flow again — and make corridors investable.

That logic may not be ideologically pure. It certainly isn’t about spreading democracy. But it reflects a real shift in U.S. foreign policy. Call it infrastructure-first geopolitics — where trade routes, ports and pipelines matter more than treaties and summits.

To be clear, the United States isn’t the only player thinking this way. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been advancing the same model for over a decade. Turkey, Iran and Russia are also exploring new logistics and energy corridors. But what sets IMEC apart — and what makes Trump’s recent moves notable — is that it offers an opening for the U.S. to compete without large-scale military deployments or decades-long aid packages.

For all his unpredictability, Trump has always had a sense for economic leverage. That may be what we’re seeing here: less a doctrine than a direction. Less about grand visions, and more about unlocking chokepoints.

There’s no guarantee it will work. The region could turn on a dime. And the corridor could remain, as it is now, a partially built concept waiting on political will. But Trump’s moves suggest he’s trying to build the conditions for it to restart — not by talking about peace, but by making peace a condition for investment.

In a region long shaped by wars over ideology and territory, that may be its own kind of strategy.

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AD1184 said:
There are suggestions that Iran's nuclear programme was in disarray in recent years, and there was no focused effort to build a nuclear bomb, despite the continued existence of its nuclear facilities, and its stockpile of enriched uranium. However, now that Israel has launched a war against Iran, if the Iranian regime holds, and its nuclear facilities are not destroyed, then building a nuclear bomb may become a priority again. It is a dangerous gamble.

www.economist.com

Was Iran really racing for nukes?

Israel says so, but there are grounds for doubt
www.economist.com www.economist.com
Click to expand...

I agree with what you said that "a nuclear bomb may become a priority again". Its normal human reaction that if one survives close call, one will make 100% sure that situation doesn't repeat itself.

Most likely what happened was that Israel was surprised with its own success against Hezbolah, and naturaly they wanted to keep initiative and get rid of real source of all their troubles, Iran. So Israel extended the initiative and went all in to show to US that job can be eaisily completed together.

Real question is how popular / unpopular Iranian regime is, and will it collapse quickly or there will be a prolonged guerilla war that will drag on for years, like in Iraq and Afganistan? Toppled Iraqui regime was unpopular so guerilla war fizzled out relatively quickly, but toppled Afgani regime was popular and it came back, kicking NATO out.

I don't really know, but I'm guessing that Iranian regime is not as unpopular as it is presented in the West. Essentially, they are nationalists, probably not liked very much by urban population, but Iran is still mostly agrarrian country. Again guessing here, but regime might be quite popular internaly.

Just Israel and US on thier own wouldn't' be able to handle years of guerilla war, they would deffinitely need EU. Iran is no joke, its country with 80 million people. Not to mention, if Israeli troops stepped into Iran whole Muslim world would join in on their side.
 
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US strikes 3 Iranian nuclear sites, Trump announces

www.foxnews.com

Israel-Iran conflict: June 21, 2025

The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, President Donald Trump announced Saturday. Iran must "make peace," or face more attacks from the U.S., Trump told the nation at the White House.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

He did it!
 
Dejan Corovic said:
Guessing time . . . Trump will not send US troops to join Israel in attacking Iran. He'll stick to aiding it as proxy war. The reason being is the since Trump doesn't want to help EU fight Russia, EU will not help Trump fight Iran. As well, US intelligence believes that Iran is not close to making bomb, so case for war is not too strong. Its more that Israel wants to drag US into getting rid of it's foe, then there is a big problem.
Click to expand...
There it is, I was wrong.
 
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