Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

nivek said:

I am correct to surmise that those who get well from receiving plasma treatment have the possibility of getting Covid-19 again?

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I do not know what the effects are of introducing someone's antibodies into the body of another person. Evidently it can have an acute beneficial effect on the disease course, potentially saving their life. I do not know what the effect is on a person's long-term immunity from the pathogen for which specific neutralizing antibodies were introduced to fight. Is the patient's immune system still stimulated to produce the same antibodies post-infection? Do the introduced antibodies last only a short time before they are excreted? You will have to find an expert on immunology for the answers.

How would you respond to the charge that lockdowns do not achieve anything? Taking the two examples of the United Kingdom and Sweden, one has been in lockdown since the 16th of March, the other has had no lockdown. Sweden's measures of combating the epidemic are mostly voluntary. It has banned gatherings of more than 50 people and has closed secondary schools and primary schools remain open (in Britain, primary schools and secondary schools are open to the children of key workers). Most other measures are in the form of government advice to citizens.

The official death statistics for Sweden and the United Kingdom, normalized for population, look like this:



I thought maybe the population density had something to do with it. Sweden has a population density less than one-tenth that in Britain. It has about twice the land area with less than one-sixth the population. But the urban population of Sweden is at 87%, whereas in the UK it is 83%. The population densities of their capital cities are not hugely different (14,700 per square mile in London, versus 13,000 per square mile in Stockholm).

I have heard it mentioned that Sweden is distinguishing between people dying with Covid-19 and people dying of Covid-19, thus getting a lower death rate than what it would be if they applied other countries' reporting methods, but I cannot substantiate this claim.

Life is not as normal in Sweden, but it is not in the same state of complete economic paralysis that we are.

I compare deaths only, because positive case numbers are more so an indicator of the activity of testers than they are an indicator of how many people in a country have the disease.

AD1184 said:

I do not know what the effects are of introducing someone's antibodies into the body of another person. Evidently it can have an acute beneficial effect on the disease course, potentially saving their life. I do not know what the effect is on a person's long-term immunity from the pathogen for which specific neutralizing antibodies were introduced to fight. Is the patient's immune system still stimulated to produce the same antibodies post-infection? Do the introduced antibodies last only a short time before they are excreted? You will have to find an expert on immunology for the answers.

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That maddening fact is that we just don't have those answers yet...even the experts are only now making strides to get the answers. I've read quite a few articles and papers to see what they know, and even the most recent publications are raising more questions than providing answers. Apparently that's one of the real problems with a pandemic like this - it comes on fast and sweeps the world before we can even figure out what we're dealing with. I have a nagging feeling that we're only going to understand key features of this virus and our immune response to it, years after the outbreak is behind us.

Thousands descending on reopened Florida beaches prompts #FloridaMorons trend on Twitter as coronavirus cases continue to rise in the state

Thousands of people flocking to reopened Florida beaches that were forced to close due to the coronavirus pandemic prompt the #FloridaMorons hashtag on Twitter. Florida Gov Ron DeSantis gave the green light for some beaches and parks to reopen if it can be done safely, even as the Sunshine State recorded its highest single-day increase in confirmed coronavirus cases. As of Sunday afternoon, Florida has more than 25,000 cases of the coronavirus and 748 deaths. Photos taken on Sunday showed locals running, walking, biking and fishing at a Duval County beach.

Mayor Lenny Curry said Duval County beaches reopened Friday afternoon with restricted hours. Curry said beachgoers are only allowed to walk, bike, hike, fish, surf, run, swim and take care of their pets while on the beaches. Several people taking to Twitter to voice their concerns over the reopening of the beaches prompted the trend of #FloridaMorons. 'Can't we just spatial distance this whole State? #FloridaMoron,' one user tweeted. Another person wrote: 'Life's a beach--then you die. #FloridaMoron.'

baleeber said:

But Nivek, if you test everyone, you're only going to find that almost everybody has it ...except, as you mention, a very small number of truly immune.

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AD1184 said:

I don't think this is true. Why do you think this is true?

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No scientific reason. Everywhere I go I hear the same light, dry cough. It seems everywhere. I cannot remember a year where everywhere there was this cough.

Is there more coughing this year, or am I just more aware of it?

baleeber said:

No scientific reason. Everywhere I go I hear the same light, dry cough. It seems everywhere. I cannot remember a year where everywhere there was this cough.

Is there more coughing this year, or am I just more aware of it?

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It could be that you are noticing it more. I remember a colleague in the office remarking a couple of months ago, in response to someone coughing, "it makes you realize how often people do cough", because we were all more conscious of it. If you go to lectures, debates, plays or classical concerts, the cacophony of coughing from the audience often mars the experience.

I have had a dry cough since the autumn. It is probably due to allergies.

If everyone where you are did already have the disease, then there wouldn't be a problem, would there? It runs its course in three to four weeks on average. There also would not be a mounting total of hospitalizations and deaths. If these things are increasing, then it suggests that the spread of the disease is growing in the population.

I am looking at the data of the UK daily confirmed case counts again. I thought of illustrating what is going on graphically. It is the assumption of many, even in the press, to believe that when a daily case count is released, it is the number of people who have been tested within the past 24 hours for whom the result is positive. This chart illustrates what is really going on.



When looked at by date of specimen, and compared to the same statistics from the day before, we can see the change between the data for the 16th and 17th of April, above. In the data for 17th, no sample was taken after the 16th. So it is the data for the previous day. This much is advertised. However, the modal date of specimens of new cases announced on the 17th is actually the 14th of April, and some are even as far back as the 2nd. Some of the data has been adjusted on the same date for data as far back as February, but these are downward adjustments, and I am only showing positive adjustments above.

I would like to compile a similar graph for death data, but these are published by Public Health England by date of report, and not by date of occurrence. Therefore, the data for previous dates do not change day-to-day like the daily case numbers do, which are by date of specimen.

baleeber said:

No scientific reason. Everywhere I go I hear the same light, dry cough. It seems everywhere. I cannot remember a year where everywhere there was this cough.

Is there more coughing this year, or am I just more aware of it?

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AD1184 said:

It could be that you are noticing it more. I remember a colleague in the office remarking a couple of months ago, in response to someone coughing, "it makes you realize how often people do cough", because we were all more conscious of it. If you go to lectures, debates, plays or classical concerts, the cacophony of coughing from the audience often mars the experience.

I have had a dry cough since the autumn. It is probably due to allergies.

If everyone where you are did already have the disease, then there wouldn't be a problem, would there? It runs its course in three to four weeks on average. There also would not be a mounting total of hospitalizations and deaths. If these things are increasing, then it suggests that the spread of the disease is growing in the population.

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I am noticing a slight cough of my own, but in my case its likely because of pollen as it has been heavy this Spring, I've had this slight cough for a month and half now which matches up with Springtime blooming of trees, grasses and other vegetation...These days I'll really watch where and when I do cough in public or at work, I don't want to give reason for others to think I may have Covid-19...

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Anti-lockdown riots break out in Paris amid anger at 'heavy-handed' police treatment of minorities after Macron extends social distancing to fight COVID-19 until May 11

Riots have broken out in Paris amid anger over police 'heavy-handed' treatment of ethnic minorities during the coronavirus lockdown. Police used tear gas and baton charges in Villeneuve-la-Garenne, northern Paris, in the early hours this morning as fireworks exploded in the street.

Armed police were seen moving through the area as groups of protesters congregated. It comes after a 30-year-old was critically injured in the neighbourhood in a collision with an unmarked police car. President Emmanuel Macron has extended France's social distancing measures until May 11. Its daily death toll from the virus fell to the lowest level in three weeks today as 395 deaths were recorded, bringing the total to 19,718, though deaths are typically under-reported over the weekend.

The interactive map is on the link, below is just a screenshot...

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Facebook & Carnegie Mellon University COVID-19 Symptom Map

With over 2 billion people on Facebook, we are in a unique position to support COVID-19 research. We’re inviting people to participate in a survey conducted by Carnegie Mellon University Delphi Research Center, and over a million people responded to this survey within the first two weeks.

About this survey
The survey from CMU Delphi Research Center asks people to self-report symptoms associated with COVID-19 or the flu that they or anyone in their household has experienced in the last 24 hours. Surveys like this have been used globally for public health research. Even with as few as several thousand responses, survey data like these have been successfully used to forecast the spread of the flu and other illnesses.

Who’s taking this survey
Facebook reaches large segments of the population allowing for a significant representation of age, gender and state of residence. Every day, a new sample of Facebook users over 18 years old within the United States are invited to participate in the survey. Facebook doesn’t receive, collect or store individual survey responses, and CMU doesn’t learn who took the survey.

Adjusting for survey bias
To help CMU measure results, Facebook shares a single statistic known as a weight value that doesn’t identify a person but helps correct for any sample bias, adjusting for who responds to survey invitations. Making adjustments using weights ensures that the sample more accurately reflects the characteristics of the population represented in the data. The weight for a survey respondent in the sample can be thought of as the number of people in the population that they represent based on their age, gender and state of residence.

Using the data
The estimates can be helpful for policymakers and health researchers to forecast potential COVID-19 outbreaks. These estimates don’t represent confirmed COVID-19 cases and shouldn’t be used for diagnostic or treatment purposes, or guidance on personal or business travel. Facebook’s research partners are committed to only using survey results to study and help contain COVID-19.

Europe's coronavirus divide: Germany is latest country to re-open shops while nurseries resume in Norway, but France and Spain will remain in near-total lockdown into May

(excerpts)

Germany is re-opening shops today as it takes its first steps out of the coronavirus lockdown, joining a group of European countries which are restarting their economies while others remain firmly shut down. Small shops including garden centres, bookstores and car and bicycle dealers are allowed to re-open in Germany from today, while some children will start returning to schools and kindergartens from next week.

Elsewhere, children were today returning to nurseries in Norway, while Denmark has already re-opened some of its schools and Switzerland has set a date (May 11) to do the same.

Italy has taken only very limited steps to ease the lockdown - and certain regions have even resisted some of those - while Finland still has most of its restrictions in place. Italy which has been in lockdown since March 9, longer than any other European country, opened a handful of shops on a trial basis last week.

Meanwhile, France says its nationwide lockdown is starting to bear fruit more than a month after it was imposed, but is yet to announce any lifting of measures. The current confinement rules have been extended until May 11 and the government has warned that people should not be planning to travel to faraway destinations in the summer holidays.

Spain is also expected to extend its lockdown into May, beyond the current deadline of April 27. Measures will be slightly loosened to allow children to leave their homes for short periods, the government says. People could be allowed to exercise outdoors, officials say, which is not currently regarded as a valid excuse to go outside in Spain.

Switzerland will start easing lockdown measures on April 27, with hairdressers and garden centres among the businesses set to re-open. Children will return to school on May 11 while universities, libraries and museums will re-open on June 8.

Austria, which has enjoyed similar success to Germany in reducing the rate of infection, allowed some shops to open last week with a view to opening larger ones on May 1. The shops already open include DIY stores and garden centres, where masks are now compulsory. Schools remain closed until at least mid-May, unlike in Denmark where children returned to primary schools and daycare centres last week.

Danes are, however, still urged to practice social distancing by keeping two metres apart, gatherings of more than 10 people are banned, and cafes, restaurants, shopping centres and gyms will remain closed until May 10, as will middle and secondary schools.

Norway is also allowing children to go back to nurseries on Monday, although some parents expressed reservations over the decision. The government plans to allow a partial re-opening of high schools, universities and hair and beauty salons from April 27.

Finland has slightly eased its restrictions by lifting a ban on travel in and out of the Helsinki region, but schools and restaurants remain closed.

The Nordic countries have a nervous eye on their neighbour Sweden, which has never imposed a lockdown in the first place, with bars and shops still open. Swedes are advised to practice social distancing but the government has emphasized 'individual responsibility' and is not enforcing most of the measures.

I just read an internet article where the mayor of Los Angeles stated that there would be no sporting events and concerts taking place until 2021. That sounds more logical than all this talk about normalcy happening in the next few weeks.

Oil Crashes: Barrel prices plunges to below zero as coronavirus collapses demand, leaving global glut

Ongoing concerns over swelling oil inventories pushed West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery down by as much as 316 percent to a record low -$39.55 per barrel. At a price below zero, buyers would be paid to take delivery as there are costs associated with transportation and storage.

The plunge in crude prices pressured oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which were the biggest decliners among Dow components. Elsewhere in the space, oil services provider Halliburton lost $1.02 billion in the first quarter and said it would cut costs by $1 billion as the crash in oil prices has decimated investment. Explorers Continental Resources and EOG Resources were among the other energy names in focus.

(more on the link)

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China's state TV anchor tells the Arabic world that coronavirus pandemic started in the US and suggests it escaped from an American lab

A Chinese state media presenter has claimed that the coronavirus originated from the US instead of China in an Arabic programme.

The anchor, who calls herself 'Ms V', referred to several conspiracy theories in an opinion show on CGTN to prove 'it is clear that the virus in China was transmitted from abroad'.

The Arabic-speaking reporter hinted that the contagion could have escaped from a US lab or been brought into China during the Military World Games in Wuhan last October. These claims have been debunked by researchers.

In one episode of her show called 'China View', Ms V first quoted unidentified research and claimed that the coronavirus started spreading after the Wuhan Military World Games in October last year, an annual sports event attended by over 100 countries.

'The research also reported that the virus had started spreading after the Wuhan International Military Games ended in October 2019.

'So, it is expected that the 'patient zero' in China has come from outside China,' said Ms V in the video uploaded on March 14.

Zhao Lijian, a Chinese government spokesperson, also echoed the conspiracy theory in a tweet in March, claiming 'it might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan'.

The comment was slammed by the Pentagon, who called it 'false and absurd'.

Chinese study finds up to 30% of coronavirus patients hardly develop ANY antibodies against the infection - raising concerns many who recover from COVID-19 are not immune

Up to 30 percent of coronavirus patients may not develop enough antibodies to offer them any protection from reinfection, a recent study suggests. The Trump administration has repeatedly pointed to the results of antibody testing as a key signal for when the US can reopen.

But experts have cautioned that disparate antibody tests are being used across the US, many of them have not been validated diligently, and that even if they're accurately identifying the antibodies, it's not yet clear what protection those immune cells offer.

Researchers from Fudan University in China found that nearly a third of the patients they tested had such low levels of coronavirus antibodies, they were unlikely to have any meaningful immunity to reinfection.

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Coronavirus has mutated to become far deadlier in Europe than the milder strain that made its way to the US west coast, Chinese study finds

Is the UK's REAL COVID-19 death toll 40% higher? ONS statistics show huge disparity with official daily count non-hospital deaths are included - and reveal one in every three people who died in April's deadliest week had the virus

The true number of coronavirus victims in the UK may still be 41 per cent higher than daily Government statistics are letting on. Weekly data published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that at least 13,121 people had died in England and Wales by April 10.

Department of Health statistics had, by that date, announced only 9,288 fatalities - the backdated deaths increased the total by 41.2 per cent. That suggests the death toll of 16,509 confirmed yesterday could in reality be closer to 23,000. And care homes in England and Wales had recorded the deaths of at least 1,644 residents by April 10 - 10 per cent of all the UK's COVID-19 deaths. Today's update is one of the first real official glimpses of the crisis gripping the care sector.

Fifteen per cent of all people dying with COVID-19 were succumbing to their illness outside of hospitals, the stats showed, revealing the crisis cannot be managed solely by the NHS. And one in every three people (33.6 per cent) who died of any cause between April 4 and April 10 had coronavirus.

That week, authorities recorded the most deaths for a single week in 20 years, with 18,516 people dying - 8,000 more than average. Around 6,200 of those were officially linked to the coronavirus, suggesting a further 1,800 were indirect 'excess' deaths or COVID-19 sufferers who never got tested.

The record number of fatalities coincides with what now appears to have been the peak of the UK's COVID-19 outbreak on April 8, when NHS hospitals recorded 803 coronavirus patients dying.

They have been cold stone caught in a lie already over the Turkish delight, full of Eastern promise that saw an announcement on Saturday with a stating of it arriving on Sunday. The clearence they thought was good enough was applied for on Sunday evening.

I'm done with them and specifically for the handling of this event. I prayed for Boris because he is our leader and has charisma which people can relate to but beyond that he didn't act anywhere near promptly enough. He didn't attend the first five Cobra meetings, actually announced he was going to continue shaking hands, his father said he will still go drinking and then becomes one of the very statistics he begs us not to become.

My bidding has been done with the ending of free movement of people coming here and yes I did vote Boris in the elections but for an express purpose of keeping Steptoe out and leaving the EU, who by the way actually wanted to involve us in their PPE arrangements and we turned it down to follow our own disastrous path. I will say that our hospitals haven't been broken and I don't forget that this was our priority but will never see them the same after the performance of herd immunity coming straight off the bat and up front, only for them to deny the sentiment so obviously broadcast to the nation. I will always remember that emotion felt and guess million of others will too, unique and permanent.

Merkel, Macron love it of hate it and Jimmy cranky from Scotland have out performed the UK government on all fronts and we are the poor kids up the street when the covers are pulled back.

Turkish government had taken control of all exports and our government went through the he same channels of a normal deal, as if we are supposed to believe they didn't know who to deal with but set it up anyhow and then sent jets in to pressurise the deal is something I used to do as a kid when trying to hide a wrong by taking it to the point of virtual exposure in the hope of getting away with it.

Boris to call Trump today so I will upfront apologise for the begging I'm sure that will come in advance.

Unlocking America: Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina join Texas in restarting their economies by easing stay-at-home restrictions

• Georgia will reopen some businesses by the end of this week, while Tennessee says businesses can open again next week
• South Carolina says department stores and some other retail businesses can reopen as early as Tuesday
• Texas became the first state to commit to partially reopening from Monday
• Michigan, Wisconsin and Idaho have all expressed plans to reopen in some form by May 1 when the federal guidelines for social distancing expire
• Some states, like hard-hit New York, had already committed this week to extending lockdown measures into at least mid-May
• About 95 percent of the country currently remains on some form of lockdown in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus
• Seven states - Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming - still have no stay-at-home orders in place for its residents
• Trump last week gave the nation's governors his road map for how the US can reopen businesses and schools shut down by the coronavirus

UK announces 873 more coronavirus victims pushing death toll to 17,382 as report suggests the true number is 40% higher - and a THIRD of all people who died in April's deadliest week had the virus

Data from the Office for National Statistics, which is released every Tuesday, includes deaths happening outside of hospitals and is the most accurate information about COVID-19 deaths in the UK. This week it shows that 13,121 coronavirus fatalities are recorded as having happened up to April 10, 41.2 per cent more than the 9,288 announced by the Department of Health by that time. Figures published today showed that the week from April 4 to April 10, which now appears to have been the peak of Britain's coronavirus outbreak, was the deadliest week for 20 years in England and Wales, with more than 18,000 people dying - some 6,213 deaths that week were linked to COVID-19.

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