karl 12
Noble
Yes the interesting thing is every time a longer study has been done it shows a residue of unknown anomalies, which remain so even after efforts of trying to understand them. Blue Book, Sturrock Panel, Cometa, GEIPAN studies, same things.
Good to see you mate, well said and think that aspect is deserving of a thread in itself - looks like the 'residue' could probably be more like 20%.
Based upon unreliable and unscientific surmises as data, the Air Force develops elaborate statistical findings which seem impressive to the uninitiated public unschooled in the fallacies of the statistical method. One must conclude that the highly publicized Air Force pronouncements based upon unsound statistics serve merely to misrepresent the true character of the UFO phenomena."
Yale Scientific Magazine (Yale University) Volume XXXVII, Number 7, April 1963
Dr Hynek states that about 20 percent of Bluebook cases could not be explained (great interview).
Researcher Kevin Randle on numbers:
"There are many such cases in the Blue Book files. Cases in which the solutions are simply not borne out of the documentation available. Yet we continue to hear about only 701 unidentified cases when the number is probably closer to 5000 when the solutions are examined carefully and those labeled as insufficient data are included. Insufficient data is not a solution, but is a label other than unidentified"
Project Blue Book Declassified - Really?
Researcher George Fawcett on numbers:
"I have found there are real objects under in intelligent control being seen on the ground and in our skies worldwide. The unknowns have varied over the decades from 22 percent in my own civilian files, 30 percent in the University of Colorda Condon Committee scientific studies, to at least 40 percent (recently revised) found in the U.S. Air Force Project Blue Book military investigations. This is not acceptable, no matter who is doing the investigations"
George Fawcett, UFO researcher (Ronald Story, Encyclopedia)
‘Curious George of UFOs’ devotes 40 years to study'
When it comes to Battelle Memorial Institute's BB14 actual unknown 20% unexplained rate (21.5% out of 3201 cases) then Ruppelt also describes the classification status below.
To be classed as an unknown, a UFO report also had to be "good," meaning that it had to come from a competent observer and had to contain a reasonable amount of data..
USAF Captain Edward J. Ruppelt's "Report on Unidentified Flying Objects", pp.9-10
• USAF attempts to mislead the public on numbers.
This was a good report, but the Air Force deliberately tried to mislead the public. The report actually showed that 21.5% of the sightings were unknowns. However, the first page of the report contains the press release which stated that only 3% percent of the sightings were unknowns. (This only represented reports received in early 1955 and not reports in the actual study which covered 1947-1952.) The Air Force also tried to weight the report by removing astronomical phenomena from the study. This had an effect of showing that known and unknown sightings were more similar (using characteristics such as color, speed, number of objects, aerial maneuvers etc.) However, dropping astronomical phenomena didn't much difference in the outcome of the report, but it illustrates how the Air Force was trying to deceive the public. In other words the Air Force didn't appear to want the public to know the results of there own study of UFOs.
link
Ruppelt also discusses radar UFO tracking and 25% unexplained rate in this article.
Also, not to go on about it but there's a 1949 Government document below sent to the Director of Intelligence entitled which it states that only 20% of UFO incidents have been explained.
Title: Unusual Incidents
To: Director of Intelligence, General Staff, U.S. Army
Authors: C. P. Cabell, Major General, USAF, Director of Intelligence, Office of Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations.
Date: February 23, 1949
Length: 1 page.
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Reports that detailed investigations of all UFO incidents reported from June 1946 to date have been conducted and only 20% have been explained. "There is no tangible evidence which would support a theory that any incidents are attributable to activity of a foreign nation. The Air Materiel Command of the USAF is continuing investigations of each unexplained event."
link
Won't even bother with the Condon report unexplained rate (30% possibly 50%) but always seem to hear the 5% figure being bandied about by debunkers on cheesy TV shows when think it's fair to say the general consensus from official government UFO studies is far more like a conservative 20%.
Cheers.