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As Above So Below
Mini Ice Age May Be Just Five Years Away
A Russian mathematician working in the UK says her model, which she claims has a 97% accuracy rate, predicts a mini ice age beginning in 2021 and lasting for 33 years, dropping temperatures enough to put Britain’s rivers in a permanent freeze.
Valentina Zharkova, mathematics professor at Northumbria University, made these bold and cold predictions based on historical solar activity, particularly data from the last mini ice age – the so-called Little Ice Age from around 1250 to the early 20th century.
No sunspots is not good for Earth
The report on Valentina Zharkova’s research and model has finally been published and she sees another Maunder minimum coming when the solar cycles between 2020 and 2030 cancel each other out. Is this bad?
Zharkova gave Sky News her prediction:
“I hope global warning will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution.”
In other words, she sees the potential for this upcoming downturn in sunspots to cause a freeze that will lessen the effects of global warming, a term she definitely uses this time around. Is 30 years time to “sort out our pollution” by 2050?
The Research Report:
Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia
ABSTRACT
Using a summary curve of two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations
derived with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) from synoptic maps for solar
cycles 21-24 as a proxy of solar activity, we extrapolate this curve backwards three
millennia revealing 9 grand cycles lasting 350-400 years each. The summary curve
shows a remarkable resemblance to the past sunspot and terrestrial activity:
grand minima - Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD), Wolf minimum (1280-1350
AD), Oort minimum (1010-1050 AD) and Homer minimum (800-900 BC); grand
maxima - modern warm period (1990-2015), medieval warm period (900-1200
AD), Roman warm period (400-10 BC) and others. We verify the extrapolated
activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked
eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder
Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely
intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries.
We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053,
which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity
compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the
increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong
increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic
rays of powerful supernovae.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf
.
A Russian mathematician working in the UK says her model, which she claims has a 97% accuracy rate, predicts a mini ice age beginning in 2021 and lasting for 33 years, dropping temperatures enough to put Britain’s rivers in a permanent freeze.
Valentina Zharkova, mathematics professor at Northumbria University, made these bold and cold predictions based on historical solar activity, particularly data from the last mini ice age – the so-called Little Ice Age from around 1250 to the early 20th century.
No sunspots is not good for Earth
The report on Valentina Zharkova’s research and model has finally been published and she sees another Maunder minimum coming when the solar cycles between 2020 and 2030 cancel each other out. Is this bad?
Zharkova gave Sky News her prediction:
“I hope global warning will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution.”
In other words, she sees the potential for this upcoming downturn in sunspots to cause a freeze that will lessen the effects of global warming, a term she definitely uses this time around. Is 30 years time to “sort out our pollution” by 2050?
The Research Report:
Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia
ABSTRACT
Using a summary curve of two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations
derived with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) from synoptic maps for solar
cycles 21-24 as a proxy of solar activity, we extrapolate this curve backwards three
millennia revealing 9 grand cycles lasting 350-400 years each. The summary curve
shows a remarkable resemblance to the past sunspot and terrestrial activity:
grand minima - Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD), Wolf minimum (1280-1350
AD), Oort minimum (1010-1050 AD) and Homer minimum (800-900 BC); grand
maxima - modern warm period (1990-2015), medieval warm period (900-1200
AD), Roman warm period (400-10 BC) and others. We verify the extrapolated
activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked
eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder
Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely
intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries.
We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053,
which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity
compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the
increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong
increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic
rays of powerful supernovae.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf
.
