How is The Coronavirus affecting your life?

Discussion in 'Social Hub' started by nivek, Mar 21, 2020.

  1. Standingstones

    Standingstones Celestial

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    I don’t know if this falls under the paradox category, but I read more and more stories of Covid deniers or people who just refuse to wear masks or distance themselves. You can almost begin to start counting to one hundred before these people are now in the hospital fighting for their lives because they have the virus.
     
  2. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    My gear for going to the grocery store...

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  3. 1963

    1963 Honorable

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    Does anyone agree with me that it is time for the world to get a grip on reality, instead of rushing head long into a global third world that we find hard to recover from?
    [​IMG]
    Bruce Maccabee sent this stat to me this morning.
    There are three times as many women that tragically lose their lives while giving birth than 'covid 19' takes! ... for god's sake just look, there are five times as many that die of friggin' measles! ... come on now folks it's time to get back to normal... but still be sensible about it, and we'll soon adjust to the reality of this 'not-so-superbug'! :Thumbsup:

    Cheers.
     
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  4. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Sorry but that chart is both ridiculous and erroneous...

    According to worldometer statistics there have been 1,092,210 covid deaths worldwide and if we figure about 10 full months since this pandemic began that divides out to approximately 3,640 deaths per day which is a far higher number of deaths than anything on that erroneous chart...

    ...
     
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  5. AD1184

    AD1184 Noble

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    How about before we start doing that, you begin to get a grip on the numbers? It ought to be obvious that this 56 deaths per day due to COVID, as against TB's 3,000 and childbirth's 162, cannot possibly be true. There were 143 new COVID deaths announced in the UK alone yesterday.

    Worldwide, the disease is killing more than 5,000 per day and peaked at more than 7,000 per day in the spring. These numbers are due to counts of reported deaths. The death toll due to things like childbirth and TB relies mostly upon estimates. COVID has killed more than one million people this year already, that we know about. An estimate will be much higher, because there are a lot of unknown deaths in countries which do not have the same systems of reporting as the first world, where the problems of counting the dead are already difficult enough.

    That Covid deaths are as low as 5,000 per day is due to people changing their behaviour due to the pandemic, whether through legal requirement or voluntary means. If we got back to 'business as normal' then expect the number of daily dead to skyrocket to many multiples of the current figure.
     
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  6. AD1184

    AD1184 Noble

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  7. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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  8. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    Of course my calculations here are conservative and generous, as @AD1184 points out in his post above, the deaths per day due to covid are likely much higher than reported...

    ...
     
  9. AD1184

    AD1184 Noble

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    About 99% of the global deaths have been been in the last seven months. So there could be around 1.9 million deaths in a full year at the current rate. It might get much worse over the coming northern hemisphere winter.
     
  10. 1963

    1963 Honorable

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    Hi Nivek, it seems that the information that Bruce sent me is not at all as rigorously checked as I would have thought from the source.... and by your determined opposition to the notion, I have been trying to clear up the disparity derivation.
    Firstly, I messaged Bruce to ask where the chart came from? ... No answer yet. ... and so have spent some time online checking the validity of the chart, and found no corroborating official lists ... but found plenty of references to your own figures. Having said that, I see that they are all emanating from the same original source, which is the CDC... which in turn accepts the numbers of unverified death certificates as quotable data.
    And If you look at the CDC data in this link ... Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
    ... And I have found that this practice is not confined to the U.S, but rather is the accepted method used almost globally. Even in my own country, the figures that are bandied by the press have been has been queried by many who suspect exaggeration , even the health secretary Matt Hancock seems to mock the official figures quoted ...
    So given that, who knows what the true morbidity rate from covid 19 is? ... But I agree with your comment of the chart being erroneous, and probably would agree to the 'ridiculous' comment too, .. but cannot say that I could agree with the numbers that you quoted either and that in this day and age of 'fake news and media-propaganda' i'll suggest that we'll never really be certain of the true death toll of this virus!
    All that said, ... I will stick by my previous statement of it being "time for us all to get a grip!" and start getting back to as near as normal as we can before it's too late for the world's economy and evolution progress to recover.
    ... It's not a very nice thing this corona virus.. but then nor are a lot of things in this world, and even if the 'official numbers' that you have accepted are correct , and the mortality rate as advertised is in fact 1087035 ... COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 14 October 2020 ... and with the current population [as I type] being 7,818,547,600 [and counting] then that means that the average mortality rate of corona virus is 2.84%.. which is of course sad and terrible, but not even close to making me think that it's time for the whole world to start regressing as it surely will if this humongous fear is encouraged.
    Yes, as I said in the [offending post] that we should also be 'sensible' and we would surely "soon adjust to the reality of this 'not-so-superbug'! .. by being sensible, I do not mean drive around in your own car 'wearing a face mask' as I have seen some people do on many occasions since the outbreak... nor do I mean phoning the police to report your elderly neighbour for having his/her grandkids around for Sunday lunch! .. and I do not think it a reasonable idea whatsoever to allow people to go into a pub , but can't have a beer unless they are having something to eat! ... the list could be endless if I could be bothered, but the main thing that worries me about this current trend of media-scaremongering is that the sensation-seeking press are relishing in the flummoxing their less than savvy readers [in particular the guardian readers] into canvassing the feckless government into shelling out the national wealth on furlough payments in order for the country to down tools and stay at home! [nice work if you can get it ... but then what is going to replenish the governments coffers? ... how are they going to pay the teachers, police , army, NHS etc?... how are they going to build the roads, houses, keep the street lights on etc? ... in other words, how are they going to stop the kind of dystopian Mad Max type future that we all love to watch at the cinema ... if everyone is too scared to go out to work??
    ... So let's get it right mate, a 2.8% mortality rate is not too much of a cost to avoid the complete horrors that this present state of mind is leading us to! ... Alright, i'll say it again, it's about time that we all got a grip of the big picture and get back to some assemblance of normality, with the codicil of protecting the ones that truly need protecting. .. the disabled and elderly... the rest can take their chances as nature decides.

    Cheers Buddy.
     
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  11. michael59

    michael59 Celestial

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    It's the same here in Edmonton. I did see my pharmacist withour a mask behind the plastic. He said it is considered personal space and that he only has to wear a mask if he steps into the public areas. When I saw a doctor on the 5th, he came in the little examining room with a mask on and then removed it, so I removed mine. I also noticed that management in Safeway Grocery Stores do not wear masks even when in public areas.

    And last but not least, Walmart has stopped sanitizing shopping carts and you now have to pay a dollar to use them again. When I was there on Monday there were no carts available. Even though there were only about 12 cars in the parking lot because it was the Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend so, most people were home eating turkey.

    Something tells me, and I really am only guessing here, but I think they (Walmart) got smacked for not sterilizing carts and so, they took the weekend to clean them all since it was less traffic on a holiday Monday.
     
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  12. August

    August Metanoia

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    5,077
    We are still under stage 2 lockdown here where I am with social distancing and hand sanitizing , no masks and the supermarkets here have stopped doing trolley sanitizing . Its slackened off since the toilet paper riots and food pillaging I think people are over the initial months of Covid 19 restrictions. I went to the local markets here in town and no one seemed to worried about bumping into each other . I mean at the moment our state is Covid free with our borders locked down, well that is until they open up the borders with others states on the 26th October.
     
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  13. pigfarmer

    pigfarmer tall, thin, irritable

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    Sanitizing shopping baskets is one of those things that sounded like a good idea at the time, like wearing gloves, but I have serious doubts about how much good it was doing. Seen too many people doing too many stupid things i.e nose picking with gloves, etc.

    I don't worry about surface ick much but I definitely keep my hands away from my face and wash them properly and frequently. I think that and the mask are what we need to be doing. Even apart from covid there are a lot of truly disgusting people with truly disgusting habits out there and our overall health could only benefit with soap and water.

    Haven't seen this lately - bet they could be put to better use elsewhere
    upload_2020-10-15_6-37-59.png
     
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  14. AD1184

    AD1184 Noble

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    510
    1,087,035 is a count of the number of dead globally, it is not a mortality rate (in population statistics, a rate is a measure of the prevalence of something relative to the total population being considered, e.g. the current incidence of Covid infection per 100,000 people in a country). 2.84% is more like a rate, but I don't see how you arrived at it from the two figures that you gave.

    Like many proponents of getting back to normal, you only consider the damage done to date under the presence of restrictions on people's behaviour to limit the spread of the virus, as if this is some kind of measure of the total harm that the virus can do if the populace received instruction to go about their normal business as before the pandemic. This is flawed reasoning. For example, three-quarters of Britain's cumulative recorded dead due to the illness (30,000) died in only a six week period from the start of April until the middle of May, with only an estimated exposure to the total population of a single-digit percentage. This gives a better idea of the lethal potential of the virus.
     
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  15. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    It is not only the sick and elderly this virus kills and not the only ones that need protecting IMO, however that being said, I have spoken here and on twitter of my views on lockdowns...I personally think lockdowns are behind us, we simply cannot continue to lock down everything each time a spike in new cases emerges...Not only giving consideration to the economic perils in doing so, but also that there are some indications that the naturally developed immunity people acquire may only last about a year...There's already cases of people who have got covid infection twice, we will keep chasing our tails with this virus if we keep overly reacting...I do think everyone and I mean every single person needs to maintain sanitary standards and wear a mask and practice social distancing to minimize exposure and minimize overwhelming our hospitals with a flood of sick folks...

    I don't buy into the number 2.8% mortality, I prefer to deal with the closed case numbers which show a current 4% mortality rate as shown on worldometer stats...

    20201015_080425.jpg

    This is a deadly virus no doubt and no doubt many more thousands are going to die before its over...Masks and social distancing a must for now, lock downs I'm fine with opening everything up as long as everyone wears a mask, keeps up with sanitation and distancing...If our countries do lock down again I'm also on board with even though I think it may not help as much as now but I may be wrong...I don't think we've figured out everything about this virus yet either, and hopefully it doesn't mutate into a more deadly form before we get out of this pandemic...We have to expect about another year of this if the Spanish flu pandemic a 100 years ago is any indication...I don't hope for a vaccine and if a safe vaccine is developed and administered I will pass on it...I never got a flu shot before, not going to start doing a covid shot either...

    ...
     
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  16. nivek

    nivek As Above So Below

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    I also believe there are forces at work in the world which desires to undermine our current economic and political structures and are using this pandemic as a means of pushing their agendas and forcing change in their way...

    ...
     
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  17. The shadow

    The shadow The shadow knows!

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    4,141
    I can think of dozens of other thing more erotic than C19.. where is the Bigfoot porn in all this? Or the alien abduction porn or.. never mind..
     
  18. The shadow

    The shadow The shadow knows!

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    Months ago my oldest son dove head first into magic the gathering.
    The fact he was locked down with us affected him and the rest. I responded by buying magic cards and building strong decks. The Bond between me and my oldest son is stronger than ever
    My younger son also went into a hobby.
    Model rockets. I also have spent cash to get him "cool rockets"
    And so it goes..
     
  19. 1963

    1963 Honorable

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    OK then mate, so you either didn't follow the link that I provided to prove my calculations, or maybe you chose not to believe that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is not 'false news purveyor' ... or perhaps you couldn't work out that percentage from the figures? .. and so i'll try one more time ... COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 15 October 2020
    remember that this chart is live and subject to change constantly! ... when I was typing yesterday the figures were as written in my previous post, ... today, they are Sum of Cases = 38581234 .. and Sum of Deaths = 1093140 ... which if you use a percentage calculator still works out at 2.83% ... so what don't you buy? https://percentagecalculator.net/
    And as we have just found out that the death rate of this thing is up 6105 in about 22 hours. ... which by anyone's calculations works out at 227.5 per hour or more relevantly 6660 for the day! ... [so where did your 3640 per day that you posted earlier come from?] ... Which of course is a much higher figure than even your notion was... but still as you can see only 2.83%.
    The rest of your post I agree with, and never said that we should abandon all caution and safe practices ... but for heaven's sake let's stop burying our heads in the sand when we see an inevitable nasty thing on the horizon... we have to keep just soldiering on as everyone has to do in the face of adversity ... What would have happened to Europe if the British public downed tools and hid away when Hitler announced his intentions of nastiness during the blitzkrieg ? [too cheesy? :Tongue:]

    Cheers Buddy.
     
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  20. AD1184

    AD1184 Noble

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    510
    Nivek explained that he prefers closed case numbers (i.e. the number of deceased divided by the sum of deceased and recovered). Your working includes active cases.

    There is nothing wrong in principle with using the closed case numbers for calculating the case fatality rate. The difficulty is that it is hard to get accurate numbers of recovered cases--the British government does not even release such figures, for example. Furthermore, as there are cases (and deaths) which escape the notice of the medical authorities, it cannot give an estimate of the infection fatality rate.

    There are three distinct measures which are often confused with how they are labelled. One is the case fatality rate. This is the rate of fatalities among medical cases, which are those diagnosed, or suspected, and recorded by the medical system. The second is the infection fatality rate. This is the rate of fatalities among all of those infected, regardless of whether they were recorded by the medical system or not, the true figure for which can only be estimated. The difference between an infection and a case is that the latter is recorded by the medical system, whereas the former is not necessarily so. The third measure is the mortality rate. This is a measure of those who have died of the disease relative to the whole population, including those who may not have been infected. For example, the mortality rate in the UK is at last count 637 per million, or 0.0637%, based on the official count.

    I don't think there is a single infection fatality rate figure to be found that is meaningful, however. It varies depending on when, where, and in whom the outbreak occurs. I think both figures of 2.83% and 4% given are overestimates of the global figure. Prior to the disease taking hold in Britain, the IFR was estimated between 0.66-1% based on an analysis of the outbreak in Hubei province. Subsequent estimates from antibody surveillance testing put it at around 0.84-1.73% so far. There is some debate however as to whether antibody testing on its own is sufficient to be able to draw such a conclusion. The IFR would obviously go up dramatically if hospitals did become overwhelmed with people having to be turned away for medical treatment.

    He explained his working: he averaged the daily count over the first ten months of the year. I made the point that 99% of Covid deaths have been since March. When using a seven-day moving average, there were around 5,200 dying per day over the last week.

    Based on the excess mortality data for Britain, as many as 60,000 died over a six-month period from Covid-19, and around three-quarters of them in a six week period in the spring. The height of the first peak of deaths was greatly suppressed by people behaving very differently to normal, first of all due to voluntary measures when the extent of the spread became known, and then due to the lockdown. That figure of 60,000 is more than the total number of people who were killed on the Home Front during the six years of the Second World War. Those deaths nevertheless led to a large deployment of anti-aircraft artillery, curfews, night-time blackouts, air-raid sirens and the use of shelters.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020
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