Wars & Rumours of Wars

nivek

As Above So Below
Huge convoy of Belarusian tanks and troop carriers is seen near Ukraine's border as Kyiv and Moscow start negotiations

Ukraine has indicated it will request a ceasefire and full withdrawal of Russian forces but Moscow has remained tight lipped over what the negotiations, held at noon in Gomel in southeastern Belarus, could entail. Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky admitted he was not confident of a positive resolution, adding that he owed it to his people to at least try and engage. He had been reticent to agree to talks in Belarus, a country used as a staging ground for the Russian invasion and which is now poised to join the war, offering instead to meet in Istanbul, Warsaw or Baku. Columns of Belarusian military vehicles were spotted today heading east from the south western corner of the country in what appeared to be preparations to join the invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile observers have warned the talks could be a pretext for Moscow to ramp up its attacks on Ukraine if Kyiv's officials refuse Russian demands.

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nivek

As Above So Below
Rattled Putin rants about West's 'empire of lies' as worldwide sanctions reduce rouble to rubble: Desperate leader hikes interest rate to 20% sparking rush on ATMS, US cuts off Russia's central bank - and now even Switzerland slaps Kremlin with penalties



Pictures show people in Saint Petersburg queuing around the corner to use nearby cash machines, as fears rise of an economic collapse due to biting Western sanctions imposed following Russia's floundering invasion of Ukraine. In a bid to stop a run on the rouble, Russia's central bank - The Bank of Russia - is hiking interest rates from 9.5 per cent to 20 per cent this morning. Its board of directors blamed a 'drastic change' on the 'external conditions for the economy' behind the massive interest rate hike. Top economists and the finance ministry also ordered exporting companies to sell 80 per cent of their foreign currency revenues on the market to try to support the rouble - the value of which continued to collapse against the dollar and the euro on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Monday. It comes as the Russian economy plummeted 30 per cent overnight to an all-time low as the West's sanctions over the Ukraine war start to squeeze the economy. The European Central Bank also warned on Monday that the European subsidiary of the Russian state-owned Sberbank - one of the Russian banks under UK sanctions - was facing bankruptcy.

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AD1184

Celestial
There are now calls to remove Russia from the UN security council which started with the Ukraine president and now with some Republicans...This is a very dangerous maneuver...


Gung-ho, jingoist morons are going to lead us all into peril.
 

AD1184

Celestial
I have been thinking about other recent conflicts in the world. One which came to mind was the 2019 offensive into Syria by fellow NATO member Turkey. This was into the Kurdish-held North Eastern region of Syria, and occurred in October of 2019, three days after Trump ordered the withdrawal of US forces in the region, who had been there to support the Kurds in their fight against Syria's Assad regime. The area was under the control of the Syria Defence Forces, a largely Kurdish rebel group, seeking independence from Assad's government. The Turks moved in under the stated rationale that the SDF was a terrorist organization, with strong links to the proscribed PKK group. There were many civilian casualties, and about 300,000 people were displaced from their homes. There was some western grumbling, but Erdogan was permitted to get on with it. So, is it purely on grounds of principle that NATO countries oppose what Putin is doing?
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
The German news video clip in post #613, to me, demonstrates the blind ignorance of the EU leaders as they squarely blame Russia for the current hostilities, not themselves nor NATO...The West should have been working with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union and made concessions with regards to NATO instead of the continual expansion mentality...We see the results of the latter and I think this is only the beginning...If we continue backing Russia into a corner its only going to get worse for everyone...

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Not sure I’m ready to be sympathetic to Putin’s Russia. Considering the amount of energy they provide there were other ways to demonstrate displeasure without war. Looks more like an excuse for armed conflict and a demonstration of power than an unavoidable need to pacify Ukraine. If stability is the goal then talking about nuclear weapons is a strange way to go about it
 

Rick Hunter

Celestial
Huge convoy of Belarusian tanks and troop carriers is seen near Ukraine's border as Kyiv and Moscow start negotiations

Ukraine has indicated it will request a ceasefire and full withdrawal of Russian forces but Moscow has remained tight lipped over what the negotiations, held at noon in Gomel in southeastern Belarus, could entail. Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky admitted he was not confident of a positive resolution, adding that he owed it to his people to at least try and engage. He had been reticent to agree to talks in Belarus, a country used as a staging ground for the Russian invasion and which is now poised to join the war, offering instead to meet in Istanbul, Warsaw or Baku. Columns of Belarusian military vehicles were spotted today heading east from the south western corner of the country in what appeared to be preparations to join the invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile observers have warned the talks could be a pretext for Moscow to ramp up its attacks on Ukraine if Kyiv's officials refuse Russian demands.

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I think Belarus is a really bad choice for a place to hold talks. Always read that they are pining to go back to Soviet days.
 

cosmic joke

Honorable
While I've not experienced it in my life, I know what a nuclear bomb can do. I don't know for sure, nor am I able to predict the future, but are his Generals following him now?
 

wwkirk

Divine
While I've not experienced it in my life, I know what a nuclear bomb can do. I don't know for sure, nor am I able to predict the future, but are his Generals following him now?
Nobody is going to nuke Russia nor its troops. Therefore Russia is not going to nuke anybody.

If they were being invaded, all bets are off, but that's not what happening.

Nonetheless, I shied away from posting this...
Vladimir Putin's mental state questioned by growing number of US officials
Has Putin Actually Lost His Mind? | National Review
Is Putin mentally unstable? Some lawmakers suggest he's 'erratic'
Putin health fears: President 'going mad' as mental state 'definitely deteriorating'
 

Rick Hunter

Celestial
I have to wonder if some of the higher ups in Moscow are already planning to depose Putin one way or another, as often happened to the Soviet premiers. Of course, Putin would be a KGB man to the end and respond to such efforts with rounds from his Makarov.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
This is not wise...

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8 EU countries support Ukraine's call to fast-track membership talks

On Monday, the leaders of eight European Union countries in Central and Eastern Europe gave their support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plea to quickly facilitate his country’s membership in the EU.

“We, the Presidents of the EU member states: the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the Republic of Slovenia strongly believe that Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective,” the leaders wrote in an open letter.

Zelensky asked for immediate EU membership as Russian troops encircle the cities in Ukraine, and much of Europe has rallied in support of Kyiv. Eastern European countries once under Soviet control have been particularly shaken by Russia’s invasion of its smaller neighbor.

(More on the link)

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AlienView

Noble
I have to wonder if some of the higher ups in Moscow are already planning to depose Putin one way or another, as often happened to the Soviet premiers. Of course, Putin would be a KGB man to the end and respond to such efforts with rounds from his Makarov.
One thing has become obvious over the years - Putin is a lousy diplomat, and has little if any diplomatic finesse.

Being a former KGB agent may have taught him to play games of war, but not politics.

If anything his handling of the current situation in the Ukraine and other events of the past show a poor track record.

This war in the Ukraine is totally unnecessary - A truly smart Russian politician could have given Ukraine the sovereignty it wants and yet still maintained a benign Russian influence over them - Instead Putin has so antagonized the Ukrainians so as to seed a hatred of Russia that may no longer be resolvable - Unless Russia replaces Putin this problem is not going to go away. Todays mainstream news said at least a couple of Russian oligarchs want Putin replaced.

I remember when the Soviet Union collapsed Russia indicated it wanted to do business openly with the West
- And over many years did so {more or less}. Unfortunately Putin and whatever cartel still supports him is doing nothing but setting the World backwards to the Cold War era - Maybe even worse than that !
 

AlienView

Noble
In fact the way things are going Putin reminds us of another 'strong man dictator' of Russia's past:

How Joseph Stalin Starved Millions in the Ukrainian Famine
Cruel efforts under Stalin to impose collectivism and tamp down Ukrainian nationalism left an estimated 3.9 million dead.

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At the height of the 1932-33 Ukrainian famine under Joseph Stalin, starving people roamed the countryside, desperate for something, anything to eat. In the village of Stavyshche, a young peasant boy watched as the wanderers dug into empty gardens with their bare hands. Many were so emaciated, he recalled, that their bodies began to swell and stink from the extreme lack of nutrients.

"You could see them walking about, just walking and walking, and one would drop, and then another, and so on it went," he said many years later, in a case history collected in the late 1980s by a Congressional commission. In the cemetery outside the village hospital, overwhelmed doctors carried the bodies on stretchers and tossed them into an enormous pit.


The Ukrainian famine—known as the Holodomor, a combination of the Ukrainian words for “starvation” and “to inflict death”—by one estimate claimed the lives of 3.9 million people, about 13 percent of the population. And, unlike other famines in history caused by blight or drought, this was caused when a dictator wanted both to replace Ukraine’s small farms with state-run collectives and punish independence-minded Ukrainians who posed a threat to his totalitarian authority.

Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University and author of the 2018 book, Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine. He describes it as “a hybrid…of a famine caused by calamitous social-economic policies and one aimed at a particular population for repression or punishment.”

In those days, Ukraine—a Texas-sized nation along the Black Sea to the west of Russia—was a part of the Soviet Union, then ruled by Stalin. In 1929, as part of his plan to rapidly create a totally communist economy, Stalin had imposed collectivization, which replaced individually owned and operated farms with big state-run collectives. Ukraine’s small, mostly subsistence farmers resisted giving up their land and livelihoods.

kulaks—well-to-do peasants, who in Soviet ideology were considered enemies of the state. Soviet officials drove these peasants off their farms by force and Stalin’s secret police further made plans to deport 50,000 Ukrainian farm families to Siberia, historian Anne Applebaum writes in her 2017 book, Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine.

Center for Russian, East European, & Eurasian Studies.

Collectivization in Ukraine didn’t go very well. By the fall of 1932—around the time that Stalin’s wife, Nadezhda Sergeevna Alliluyeva, who reportedly objected to his collectivization policy, committed suicide—it became apparent that Ukraine’s grain harvest was going to miss Soviet planners’ target by 60 percent. There still might have been enough food for Ukrainian peasants to get by, but, as Applebaum writes, Stalin then ordered what little they had be confiscated as punishment for not meeting quotas.

report, they used long wooden poles with metal points to poke the dirt floors of peasants’ homes and probe the ground around them, in case they’d buried stores of grain to avoid detection. Peasants accused of being food hoarders typically were sent off to prison, though sometimes the collectors didn’t wait to inflict punishment. Two boys who were caught hiding fish and frogs they’d caught, for example, were taken to the village soviet, where they were beaten, and then dragged into a field with their hands tied and mouths and noses gagged, where they were left to suffocate.

secret police and the regime’s system of internal passports. Ukrainian peasants resorted to desperate methods in an effort to stay alive, according to the Congressional commission’s report. They killed and ate pets and consumed flowers, leaves, tree bark and roots. One woman who found some dried beans was so hungry that she ate them on the spot without cooking them, and reportedly died when they expanded in her stomach.

“The policies adopted by Stalin and his deputies in response to the famine after it had begun to grip the Ukrainian countryside constitute the most significant evidence that the famine was intentional,” Erlacher says. “Local citizens and officials pleaded for relief from the state. Waves of refugees fled the villages in search of food in the cities and beyond the borders of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic.” The regime’s response, he says, was to take measures that worsened their plight.

By the summer of 1933, some of the collective farms had only a third of their households left, and prisons and labor camps were jammed to capacity. With hardly anyone left to raise crops, Stalin’s regime resettled Russian peasants from other parts of the Soviet Union in Ukraine to cope with the labor shortage. Faced with the prospect of an even wider food catastrophe, Stalin’s regime in the fall of 1933 started easing off collections.

defined in Article 2 of the U.N. Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (1948) as "any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.” In April 2008, Russia's lower house of Parliament passed a resolution stating that “There is no historical proof that the famine was organized along ethnic lines.” Nevertheless, at least 16 countries have recognized the Holodomor, and most recently, the U.S. Senate, in a 2018 resolution, affirmed the findings of the 1988 commission that Stalin had committed genocide.

Ultimately, although Stalin’s policies resulted in the deaths of millions, it failed to crush Ukrainian aspirations for autonomy, and in the long run, they may actually have backfired. “Famine often achieves a socio-economic or military purpose, such as transferring land possession or clearing an area of population, since most flee rather than die,” famine historian de Waal says. “But politically and ideologically it is more often counterproductive for its perpetrators. As in the case of Ukraine it generated so much hatred and resentment that it solidified Ukrainian nationalism.”

PATRICK J. KIGER
See whole article here:
How Joseph Stalin Starved Millions in the Ukrainian Famine
 

AlienView

Noble
This is currently available on Netflix {possibly elsewhere?}

Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom {Imdb rating 8.3}

"A documentary on the unrest in Ukraine during 2013 and 2014, as student demonstrations supporting European integration grew into a violent revolution calling for the resignation of President Viktor F. Yanukovich."

Official trailer:

 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
A little late for that, eh? Do they have the pilots or airfields? Ordnance? Tactical plans?
Might just wind up captured or destroyed by the Russians.

So far Russians are under performing. Weather that's their overall strategy its hard to say. Maybe they are waiting to amass troupes in large concentrations.

They haven't won a single town in 6 days. Their troupes and equipment are mostly stuck in these long convoys that can easily be attacked. They are overstretched in many in 4 - 5 different areas. Social media shows lots of destroyed Russian equipment as they try to enter cities in lightly armoured vehicles, without tanks or artillery support. Even just 10 - 20 of these Mig-29s can change the tide because they would open skies for Ukrainian drones to attack supply columns. There isn't much of evidence that Russian troupes are receiving any air-support etc.
 
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