Wars & Rumours of Wars

AD1184

Celestial
What are the western powers attempting to achieve with their interventions in this conflict? We seem to have launched another emotive campaign without firm objectives, just as we could never crystallize what firm goals there were for Covid interventions, or for interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya. I would have hoped that the avoidance of war with Russia would have reigned supreme above every single other consideration. Not for the Russians' sake, but for our own, given the threat of mutually assured destruction. The NATO secretary general and various national leaders of NATO countries have ruled out direct military intervention in the conflict, which is a good thing. However, we are quite happy to intervene military in a less direct fashion by handing arms to Ukraine in a boastful way with expressions of hope that they may be used to kill Russian soldiers. What's more many western officials have made undisciplined remarks, such as France's finance minister declaring yesterday that they were 'waging all-out financial war' on Russia with sanctions and other financial measures, and Spain's prime minister announcing earlier today that his country would deliver 'offensive' military weapons to Ukraine, and that 'the only language Putin understands is war', implying that Spain is waging war on Putin.

Russia is condemned for violating Ukraine's territorial sovereignty, for launching a war on a bogus pretext, and for bombing civilians. However, the United States and allies did all of these things in Iraq, for example, less than twenty years ago, thus we have very little credibility in taking a stand. What we are saying is that it is only wrong when the Russians do it.

I have noticed for some time now that western media and governments have been attempting to condition us to accept the Ukrainian nationalist cause as our own. This is justified in various places as being out of a principle of fighting for freedom, democracy and national self-determination. But we frequently look the other way when these things are violated elsewhere, if not seek friendly relations with many of the violators (China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia to name a few). It is also at a time when western states are becoming increasingly authoritarian by clamping down upon freedom of speech, thought, and assembly, and, with extensive Covid lockdowns, even preventing people from leaving their homes and visiting friends and family, and from travelling between states. The European Union can only palate democracy when a vote goes the way that it wants it to go. The EU policy on democracy may as well be "you will keep voting until you give the correct result, then you must stop voting." The EU may welcome a desire from the Ukrainian people to join the bloc now, but it could never welcome a desire for those same people to leave later down the line, should they ever decide that membership is not for them.

We are now seemingly doing everything short of declaring out-right war on Russia, so what further room does that leave for escalation? We are eager to punish, but what are we offering Russia if it acquiesces and does what we want it to do? Are the sanctions going to be lifted immediately if Putin calls an end to his invasion? No doubt there will be many who will call for them to remain as an enduring punishment, and it is possible that this is what the Russians will now expect. And if that is the case, then what would be the point for Putin to comply with western demands, from his perspective? Boris Johnson has seemingly called for Putin to be jailed for war crimes, but how then can we expect him to ever relinquish power? There must be an avenue given for Putin to climb down diplomatically, or western efforts are likely to fail.
 
Last edited:

AD1184

Celestial
The Russian military, or at least parts of it, appear to have slipped somewhat.

This going to sound screwed up, but I used to think it was good for the US to fight occasional wars and engage in other military actions in order to keep the military, in all aspects, always experienced as well as prepared.
The Russian Air Force has recent experience of fighting in Syria. This is a contributing factor to the depletion of their smart bomb arsenal.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Boris Johnson has seemingly called for Putin to be jailed for war crimes, but how then can we expect him to ever relinquish power?

There is no conclusive evidence for any claim of war crimes right now...Johnson isn't the only one claiming this either...

 

nivek

As Above So Below
 

nivek

As Above So Below
The EU, G-7, Allies, and partners are united in denouncing Russia’s premeditated, unprovoked and unjustified attack against Ukraine.

Unprovoked?...NATO has been provoking Russia for years, it was just a matter of time...

...
 

Rick Hunter

Celestial
Both sides have been playing brinkmanship for decades. Constant pecker measuring where (usually) nobody gets hurt. It's just what they do.
 

AlienView

Noble
Russian businessman puts bounty of $1 million on Putin’s head

Putin-boundy-via-LinkedIn-900x506.jpg

Russian businessman, Alex Konanykhin, is offering a reward of $1 million to the officer who arrests "Vladimir Putin as a war criminal under Russian and international laws. Alex Konanykhin/LinkedIn)
Russian businessman puts bounty of $1 million on Putin's head

Russian businessman puts bounty of $1 million on Putin's head
 

AD1184

Celestial
This is not good news:

Most people in Sweden and Finland now want to join NATO after war broke out in Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

The Finns and the Swedes now want to join NATO, despite their historic neutrality. Russia has threatened military retaliation if they join. If they were not interested even at the height of the Cold War, they shouldn't be let in now. Finland and Sweden are most useful as buffer states between NATO and Russia.

As a subject of a NATO-member country (one of the original 12), I resent NATO obligations being extended to more and more states, particularly at a time of such escalating tensions. Liberal internationalists in the western world seem to have been taken over by a kind of euphoria in this moment, and are relishing the conflict with Russia. NATO's ethos ought to be discipline and restraint, and not reckless gambling when overcome with passion.

The only hope we can cling to is that NATO membership is by invitation only, and an invitation is extended only after the unanimous agreement of all existing member countries, and that the leadership of at least one of those countries will see sense. It is not solely up to would-be members to decide. However, I do worry as there is madness in the air.
 
Last edited:

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Fighting wars by proxy is nothing new and neither is fighting a propaganda campaign that has questionable roots in reality. We're being far more overt about it and honestly, looking only at what I've seen in the media regarding Zelensky and the nature of the Ukrainian resistance they won that battle hands down.

The Russians just plain ****ed up. Famously, war plans rarely survive first contact with the enemy and apparently the estimations of their military capability and global reaction were not accurate. Maybe their activity in Syria gave them a false sense of efficacy. Also, the world sort of rolled over when they annexed the Crimea in 2014 and has largely ignored fighting in the 'breakaway provinces' and they probably expected that to happen again.

I watched an interesting press conference with John Kirby the Pentagon spokesman last night and he called it a 'misstep' of combined arms. Meaning, not to put too fine a point on it, they need to get their shit together. Kirby also warned that lessons can be drawn from this failure, that it isn't over and that the Russian military still retains considerable combat power that has yet to be employed.

Something I've been going on and on about and we see it here: the effect of the immediacy of communication. We've been killing one another for millennia. It's only very, very recently we've been able to see it like this. Pandering to a news cycle is also not new, but doing it to this endless near-instantaneous roller coaster ride of questionable information is par for the course these days. You can see it with covid, you can see it with the knee jerk reaction to this.
 
Last edited:

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Where's the Russkie air force been? Out polishing their .... Migs?

Once in a while there comes a story that I just file away - to be taken out from time to time with a smile, admired, and then put back to await another reference. A couple of points about this one. First is, if you're a terrorist then skip the ice cream and cupcake party after graduation from terrorist school. Just mentioning it.

upload_2022-3-3_8-8-26.jpeg

The other thing is - this is how it's done by people that know what the hell they are doing.

U.S. Strikes in Somalia Kill 150 Shabab Fighters (Published 2016)

U.S. Strikes in Somalia Kill 150 Shabab Fighters
March 7, 2016

WASHINGTON — American aircraft on Saturday struck a training camp in Somalia belonging to the Islamist militant group the Shabab, the Pentagon said, killing about 150 fighters who were assembled for what American officials believe was a graduation ceremony and prelude to an imminent attack against American troops and their allies in East Africa.

Defense officials said the strike was carried out by drones and American aircraft, which dropped a number of precision-guided bombs and missiles on the field where the fighters were gathered. Pentagon officials said they did not believe there were any civilian casualties, but there was no independent way to verify the claim. They said they delayed announcing the strike until they could assess the outcome.

It was the deadliest attack on the Shabab in the more than decade-long American campaign against the group, an affiliate of Al Qaeda, and a sharp deviation from previous American strikes, which have concentrated on the group’s leaders, not on its foot soldiers.

It comes in response to new concerns that the group, which was responsible for one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on African soil when it struck a popular mall in Nairobi in 2013, is in the midst of a resurgence after losing much of the territory it once held and many of its fighters in the last several years. The planned attack on American and African Union troops in Somalia, American officials say, may have been an attempt by the Shabab to carry out the same kind of high-impact act of terrorism as the one in Nairobi.


The fighters had just completed “training for a large-scale attack” against American and African Union forces, said Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.

Pentagon officials would not say how they knew that the Shabab fighters killed on Saturday were training for an attack on United States and African Union forces, but the militant group is believed to be under heavy American surveillance.

The Shabab fighters were standing in formation at a facility the Pentagon called Camp Raso, 120 miles north of Mogadishu, when the American warplanes struck on Saturday, officials said, acting on information gleaned from intelligence sources in the area and from American spy planes. One intelligence agency assessed that the toll might have been higher had the strike happened earlier in the ceremony. Apparently, some fighters were filtering away from the event when the bombing began.

The strike was another escalation in what has become the latest battleground in the Obama administration’s war against terror: Africa. The United States and its allies are focused on combating the spread of the Islamic State in Libya, and American officials estimate that with an influx of men from Iraq, Syria and Tunisia, the Islamic State’s forces in Libya have swelled to as many as 6,500 fighters, allowing the group to capture a 150-mile stretch of coastline over the past year.

The arrival of the Islamic State in Libya has sparked fears that the group’s reach could spread to other North African countries, and the United States is increasingly trying to prevent that. American forces are now helping to combat Al Qaeda in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso; Boko Haram in Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad; and the Shabab in Somalia and Kenya, in what has become a multifront war against militant Islam in Africa.

The United States has a small number of trainers and advisers with African Union — primarily Kenyan — troops in Somalia. Defense officials said that the African Union’s military mission to Somalia was believed to have been the target of the planned attack.

Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, called the attack a “good example” of how the United States military can work with local partners to advance security.

“The removal of those terrorist fighters degrades Al Shabab’s ability to meet the group’s objectives in Somalia, including recruiting new members, establishing bases and planning attacks on the U.S.,” Mr. Earnest told reporters on Monday. He insisted that avoiding civilian casualties is a “very very high priority, both for moral reasons but also because extremist organizations like Al Shabab would just use the death of innocent civilians to try to recruit additional members and whip up additional anti-U.S. sentiment.”

Saturday’s strike was the most significant American attack on the Shabab since September 2014, when an American drone strike killed the leader of the group, Ahmed Abdi Godane, at the time one of the most wanted men in Africa. That strike was followed by one last March, when Adan Garar, a senior member of the group, was killed in a drone strike on his vehicle.

If the killings of Mr. Godane and Mr. Garar initially crippled the group, that no longer appears to be the case. In the past two months, Shabab militants have claimed responsibility for attacks that have killed more than 150 people, including Kenyan soldiers stationed at a remote desert outpost and beachcombers in Mogadishu.

In addition, the group has said it was responsible for a bomb on a Somali jetliner that tore a hole through the fuselage and for an attack last month on a popular hotel and a public garden in Mogadishu that killed 10 people and injured more than 25. On Monday, the Shabab claimed responsibility for a bomb planted in a laptop computer that went off at an airport security checkpoint in the town of Beletwein in central Somalia, wounding at least six people, including two police officers. The police said that one other bomb was defused.


At the same time, Shabab assassination teams have fanned out across Mogadishu and other major towns, stealthily eliminating government officials and others they consider apostates.

The Shabab have also retaken several towns after African Union forces pulled out. The African Union peacekeeping force, paid for mostly by Western governments, features troops from Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Djibouti and other African nations.

The Shabab were once strong, then greatly weakened and now seem to be somewhere in between, while analysts say the group competes with the Islamic State for recruits and tries to show — in the deadliest way — that it is still relevant. Its dream is to turn Somalia into a pure Islamic state.

The Pentagon’s announcement of the attack in Somalia came as the Obama administration said it planned in the future to be more transparent about the number of casualties caused by the use of counterterrorism strikes outside declared war zones. Lisa Monaco, President Obama’s counterterrorism and homeland security adviser, said a report would be released “in the coming weeks,” on the total number of casualties caused by strikes since Mr. Obama took office.

 

AD1184

Celestial
Fighting wars by proxy is nothing new and neither is fighting a propaganda campaign that has questionable roots in reality. We're being far more overt about it and honestly, looking only at what I've seen in the media regarding Zelensky and the nature of the Ukrainian resistance they won that battle hands down.

The Russians just plain ****ed up. Famously, war plans rarely survive first contact with the enemy and apparently the estimations of their military capability and global reaction were not accurate. Maybe their activity in Syria gave them a false sense of efficacy. Also, the world sort of rolled over when they annexed the Crimea in 2014 and has largely ignored fighting in the 'breakaway provinces' and they probably expected that to happen again.

I watched an interesting press conference with John Kirby the Pentagon spokesman last night and he called it a 'misstep' of combined arms. Meaning, not to put too fine a point on it, they need to get their shit together. Kirby also warned that lessons can be drawn from this failure, that it isn't over and that the Russian military still retains considerable combat power that has yet to be employed.

Something I've been going on and on about and we see it here: the effect of the immediacy of communication. We've been killing one another for millennia. It's only very, very recently we've been able to see it like this. Pandering to a news cycle is also not new, but doing it to this endless near-instantaneous roller coaster ride of questionable information is par for the course these days. You can see it with covid, you can see it with the knee jerk reaction to this.
Russia is not employing its modern military in this fight yet. It is using its second-rate troops and its older, second-rate equipment. The reasons for that are not quite clear yet. Perhaps they thought that their second-raters were good enough in this case, and Ukraine would be a push-over, so they did not need to risk their best arms and soldiers. Perhaps they are holding them back for an assault in the warmer weather later this year.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
Russia is not employing its modern military in this fight yet.

Revealing. Of what, I don't know but revealing. My guess is they don't have the advertised capabilities. They'd best either get to it already or pull out.
 

Rick Hunter

Celestial
That's what I wonder myself. Has Russian military capability really advanced much since Soviet days? Is their biggest strength (outside of nukes) still largely the ability to pour large amounts of conscripted infantry into the fight? If the people don't want you there and keep resisting then that is a very expensive and ultimately futile way to take over a country or even keep it in your own sphere. It happened to us in Vietnam and you might say it happened to both Russia and the US in Afghanistan.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Putin's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov likens the US to Nazi Germany and repeats warning that WW3 'can only be nuclear' in latest TV rant

Sergei Lavrov has repeated his warning that World War Three would be nuclear as he accused the West of fixating on his dire threats. The foreign minister also compared the US to Nazi Germany in his latest rant after Russian forces seized the Black Sea regional capital of Kherson in Ukraine, its first major city after a week of fighting. On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be put on high alert, accusing the West of taking 'unfriendly' steps against his country. The move was followed up by comments from Lavrov yesterday in which he warned another World War would be 'nuclear and destructive'.

.
 

nivek

As Above So Below

Estonian cargo ship SINKS after 'hitting a MINE' off Ukraine coast near Odessa


An Estonian-owned cargo ship has been sunk off the coast of Ukraine after hitting a mine.

Four crew members are still missing and two are in a life raft at sea following the explosion near Odeasa.

Igor Ilves, managing director of Tallinn-based manager Vista Shipping Agency, said the ship likely struck a mine, adding: 'The vessel has finally sunk. Two of the crew are in a raft on the water and four others are missing. I don't know where they are at the moment.'

Estonia is a member of NATO and the EU, and while an official reason has yet to be given for the blast, the possibility that it was the result of a mine risks further destabilising an already explosive situation in Eastern Europe.

(More on the link)

54906043-10573541-image-m-35_1646314674614.jpg


54906815-10573541-image-a-43_1646316542516.jpg
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Here is the best analysis of military situation that I found so far. Includes even Russian invasion plans found on a captured high ranking Russian officer. Video is very good because it is well grounded.



As well, here is "open source" real-time update on military situation, including recorded communications between Russian troupes ( I didn't even know such site existed ):

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
 
Top