Global Cooling or Global Warming?

People want to Quote all kinds of Facts and figures about Global warming and Cooling and climate change. I never hear anyone speaking about how we are Currently in an Ice age.

No offense to anyone here, " I honestly didn't read the entire thread" But, I'm willing to be not one soul mentioned that "Hey We are currently in an interglacial period of an ice age" Ice age - Wikipedia
Global warming? We're in middle of an Ice Age
Ice age

I mean, People can Talk to me about Global warming, But we are still in an interglacial Ice age, and That's kind of a scientific fact though.

Standingstones said:

I would lean towards the sun's activity for the majority of the earth's weather changes. However, you can't deny that humans polluting the atmosphere is also a reason for the weather we have presently.

Looking at photos of China's skies, you can't discount that all human beings are being affected by the crap being sent up into the atmosphere.

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Yes humanity is screwing up the earth and we have to get our act in gear to begin helping the environment. As it stands the next ice age will happen in the near geologic future.....I just hope we can have the earth on the right track by then.

I remember the skies in China.

spacecase0 said:

I have tried to get people to separate the pollution issue and CO2 for a long time now
and it would seem as if the propaganda works very well,
many farm fields and forests are below 160PPM of CO2 soon after sunrise,
below 160PPM is the point when almost all the plants on earth will die, and with that, all the animals.
most life on earth was headed to die from lack of CO2, it seems as if we are on a dying planet from lack of CO2.
the levels are still way to low, but better now in the last few years.
ideal CO2 numbers for humans and plants is about 750PPM, with 500 to 1000 being in the ok range.

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Studies have shown that large field crops (like corn), run out of CO2 around midday (peak sun) and go dormant.

The photosynthesis rate shows an odd "birds beak" around noon when photosynthesis declines. That should be peak photosynthesis, and isn't.

Thomas R. Morrison said:

I used to fear for the future, but now I fear for the present. In addition to all the poison we've been belching into the ecosphere for the last century and the rise of neofeudal economics and widespread global political corruption over the last few decades as corporations have seized power pretty much everywhere, the global temperature has risen by about 1.8 degrees over the last century, and that's far more dramatic at the poles where the net temperature has risen by at least 4-5 degrees...that's why the polar ice caps are melting so quickly. We are on a doomed course and the UN report gives us about 12 years to retool the global energy sector before catastrophic events for our civilization become unavoidable.


I have this thought often, because it seems to explain the prevalence of AAVs in recent decades, and the reluctance of the operators to talk with us: not much point in opening a conversation with a species that isn't long for this world.

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Well...

The Antarctic is gaining ice mass and has been colder than most of the interglacial.

During the interglacial the Antarctic has been getting about 250 GT more snow a year (it loses ice mass during a glacial period because of low precipitation).

NASA in 2015 estimated it is gaining 82 GT/Y.

Greenland ice mass has been flat for 3 years and low loss for the two before.

Albedo in the Arctic is increasing.

And besides the Arctic was 6-9°C warmer 9000 years ago. The LIA was probably the coldest period in Greenland of the interglacial.

Thomas R. Morrison said:

I used to fear for the future, but now I fear for the present. In addition to all the poison we've been belching into the ecosphere for the last century and the rise of neofeudal economics and widespread global political corruption over the last few decades as corporations have seized power pretty much everywhere, the global temperature has risen by about 1.8 degrees over the last century, and that's far more dramatic at the poles where the net temperature has risen by at least 4-5 degrees...that's why the polar ice caps are melting so quickly. We are on a doomed course and the UN report gives us about 12 years to retool the global energy sector before catastrophic events for our civilization become unavoidable.

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I don't give much credence to UN reports given the widespread corruption in that organization as there is in most all major governments of the world, but you are correct, and adding to what you spoke of, also a huge amount of plastic pollution throughout the world with no end in sight, we are choking the very ecosystem we depend on to survive...Survive is a just word to use here, because if changes are not made soon it will be a grave matter of survival for not only humans but other lifeforms we share this planet with...

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CasualBystander said:

Well...

The Antarctic is gaining ice mass and has been colder than most of the interglacial.

During the interglacial the Antarctic has been getting about 250 GT more snow a year (it loses ice mass during a glacial period because of low precipitation).

NASA in 2015 estimated it is gaining 82 GT/Y.

Greenland ice mass has been flat for 3 years and low loss for the two before.

Albedo in the Arctic is increasing.

And besides the Arctic was 6-9°C warmer 9000 years ago. The LIA was probably the coldest period in Greenland of the interglacial.

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This is why I hate debating with climate change deniers – it's like debating with creationists. You can always cherry-pick a narrow data point here or there that reinforces the nice cozy lie that “oh look, everything’s fine - nothing to worry about” self-delusion that everyone wants to believe because the threat is so enormous and terrifying.

But those of us who don’t succumb to the denial impulse because the stakes are too high to bury our heads in the sand, look at the entire current data set to see the complete and deathly sobering picture here.

Like:

“Over the last 25 years, melting Antarctic ice has added nearly 3 trillion tons of water to the ocean, enough to fill Lake Erie six times over. That’s according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, which used more satellite data than any other investigation of Antarctica.

By measuring the Earth’s gravitational pull and changes in ice sheets, the researchers show a sharp uptick in Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise over the last decade.

Most of this ice loss comes from West Antarctica, where the rate of ice melting tripled over the past quarter century from 58 billion to 175 billion tons per year. Less substantial losses occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula, while East Antarctica remained mostly unchanged.”

Source: “Antarctica is losing ice twice as fast as anyone thought,” 6/13/2018
Antarctica is losing ice twice as fast as anyone thought


“The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992–2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.”

Source: “Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017,” 6/13/2018
Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017 | Nature


Antarctica experienced a sixfold increase in yearly ice mass loss between 1979 and 2017, according to a study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Glaciologists from the University of California, Irvine, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Netherlands' Utrecht University additionally found that the accelerated melting caused global sea levels to rise more than half an inch during that time.”

“Antarctica losing six times more ice mass annually now than 40 years ago,” 1/14/2019
Antarctica losing six times more ice mass annually now than 40 years ago: Climate change-induced melting will raise global sea levels for decades to come

Climate change is happening. Problem is that it is not caused by human activity, but by natural changes. At various times Earth was much hotter or much colder than now. By insisting on false story that humans caused warming we are risking wrong allocation of resources for remedy and making situation worse.

Plastic pollution was definitely caused by humans and we should clean it up.

Dejan Corovic said:

Climate change is happening. Problem is that it is not caused by human activity, but by natural changes. At various times Earth was much hotter or much colder than now. By insisting on false story that humans caused warming we are risking wrong allocation of resources for remedy and making situation worse.

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No man - it's beyond any doubt a primarily human-caused problem: just look at the charts of cyclical temperature changes over geological timescales, and then look at the sharp vertical spike that's been happening in the last century or so. Not a natural phenomenon. Clearly a result of the industrial age. I wasted weeks of my life studying this subject in detail to respond to all the Koch-brothers-sponsored BS that people keep spouting at me about this topic. It's totally insane to think that we could burn about 1 trillion barrels of oil without making a substantial impact on the environment.

There are one or two Nobel prize winners and many more climate scientists who say human contribution hypothesis was result of chap mathematical modeling. Many videos on YouTube. It's politicised hype.

By far, the biggest green house gas is water vapor, second is CO2. Simply by breathing we and all animals produce green house gasses.

Please check messages box.

Dejan Corovic said:

Climate change is happening. Problem is that it is not caused by human activity, but by natural changes. At various times Earth was much hotter or much colder than now. By insisting on false story that humans caused warming we are risking wrong allocation of resources for remedy and making situation worse.

Plastic pollution was definitely caused by humans and we should clean it up.

Click to expand...

My thoughts on this is our activities are assisting and expediting what would otherwise be a natural occurrence, climate change is something natural but we are adding to it, making things worse than what it would have been...The world is not going to become too hot to live in although it may very well get hotter before it gets cooler, we should expect an ice age in the near future...Plastic pollution however may be our real downfall, an ice age can and will thin out our population but it may be fifty years before the brunt of an ice age hits the world, a lot can happen in fifty years, we may die out as a species before then if changes are not made...We certainly cannot maintain the status quo and expect to survive...

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nivek said:

My thoughts on this is our activities are assisting and expediting what would otherwise be a natural occurrence, climate change is something natural but we are adding to it, making things worse than what it would have been...The world is not going to become too hot to live in although it may very well get hotter before it gets cooler, we should expect an ice age in the near future...Plastic pollution however may be our real downfall, an ice age can and will thin out our population but it may be fifty years before the brunt of an ice age hits the world, a lot can happen in fifty years, we may die out as a species before then if changes are not made...We certainly cannot maintain the status quo and expect to survive...

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This discussion belongs to another thread.

Dejan Corovic said:

Plastic pollution was definitely caused by humans and we should clean it up.

Click to expand...

Its worse than you can imagine, this thread linked below barely scratches the surface of the problem...There is no soil on earth that does not contain plastic of some quantity...

This thread linked below is active currently even though it started in 2017...

A million plastic bottles a minute

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Thomas R. Morrison said:

This is why I hate debating with climate change deniers – it's like debating with creationists. You can always cherry-pick a narrow data point here or there that reinforces the nice cozy lie that “oh look, everything’s fine - nothing to worry about” self-delusion that everyone wants to believe because the threat is so enormous and terrifying.

But those of us who don’t succumb to the denial impulse because the stakes are too high to bury our heads in the sand, look at the entire current data set to see the complete and deathly sobering picture here.

Like:

“Over the last 25 years, melting Antarctic ice has added nearly 3 trillion tons of water to the ocean, enough to fill Lake Erie six times over. That’s according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, which used more satellite data than any other investigation of Antarctica.

By measuring the Earth’s gravitational pull and changes in ice sheets, the researchers show a sharp uptick in Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise over the last decade.

Most of this ice loss comes from West Antarctica, where the rate of ice melting tripled over the past quarter century from 58 billion to 175 billion tons per year. Less substantial losses occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula, while East Antarctica remained mostly unchanged.”

Source: “Antarctica is losing ice twice as fast as anyone thought,” 6/13/2018
Antarctica is losing ice twice as fast as anyone thought


“The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992–2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.”

Source: “Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017,” 6/13/2018
Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017 | Nature


Antarctica experienced a sixfold increase in yearly ice mass loss between 1979 and 2017, according to a study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Glaciologists from the University of California, Irvine, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Netherlands' Utrecht University additionally found that the accelerated melting caused global sea levels to rise more than half an inch during that time.”

“Antarctica losing six times more ice mass annually now than 40 years ago,” 1/14/2019
Antarctica losing six times more ice mass annually now than 40 years ago: Climate change-induced melting will raise global sea levels for decades to come

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This is why I hate debating with global warmers... The facts mean nothing.

Hansen's 2013 prediction for current Greenland ice melt, conservatively, is off between 1000 and 2000%.

That doesn't even qualify as a guess.

NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008...

At the end of the last Ice Age, the air became warmer and carried more moisture across the continent, doubling the amount of snow dropped on the ice sheet,” Zwally said.

The problem - if you look at the estimates - is that the top surface is somewhat accurately measured, and they guess at what is happening to the terrain underneath.

Viscosity estimates for the magma vary by a factor of 10.

The high loss estimates assume the ice sheet is losing mass and rising.

Given that 1/3 of the ice loss is by sublimation, with 10000 years of doubled precipitation, and that much of the Antarctic ice sheet is core locked and not moving, the gain of ice mass in the last 10,000 years means the surface is sinking.

I'm not a denier either. That is just name calling.

The only study to measure CO2 forcing (actually all greenhouse forcing) showed a 0.2 W/m2 change for 22 PPM increase over 11 years, or 0.48°C for 2x CO2. It should have been around 1.6°C since that is a quasi-TSR measurement.

Yeah, there is some CO2 warming... So what???

It isn't a climate driver.

Further - if polar ice was melting - the Length of Day would have gotten longer since 1975, not shorter. NRL Leap Second chart refutes your claims (the "Munk's Enigma").

For reference here is the length of day chart.

It should have increased .92 ms since 1973 if there was no ice melt or sea level rise.

Polar ice melt and sea level rise should have caused it to increase more than that - depending on your estimates of polar melting and sea level rise it should be 7 or higher (due to the change in the moment of inertia).

Great idea - let's read into some totally irrelevant chart about the rotation speed of the Earth to make up fake arguments against the actual relevant empirical data measuring temperature, atmospheric CO2, and the rapidly rising ocean levels as huge ice shelves continue to break off into the oceans while the water and air temperatures continue to rise. Brilliant.

Here's what matters.

This is the global temperature of the planet over the last 2000 years, estimated using a variety of techniques:


And this is the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last 400,000 years:


One might notice a similarity - that steep vertical spike taking place right now in both charts, which are both obviously dramatic departures from any natural cycles dating back millennia.

The two are obviously directly related, representing empirical proof of human causation and not naturally occurring cycles.

And here's the resulting seas level rise over the past 140 years:



Most of our global civilization is within a feet feet of the current sea level, and the sea level has already risen 9 inches, and the rise is accelerating every year.

There's enough ice at the rapidly melting polar ice caps to raise the sea level 216 feet. You do the math.

Case closed.

Thomas R. Morrison said:

Great idea - let's read into some totally irrelevant chart about the rotation speed of the Earth to make up fake arguments against the actual relevant empirical data measuring temperature, atmospheric CO2, and the rapidly rising ocean levels as huge ice shelves continue to break off into the oceans while the water and air temperatures continue to rise. Brilliant.

Here's what matters.

This are the global temperature of the planet over the last 2000 years, estimated using a variety of techniques:

And this is the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last 400,000 years:

One might notice a similarity - that steep vertical spike taking place right now in both charts, which are both obviously dramatic departures from any natural cycles dating back millennia.

The two are obvious directly related, representing empirical proof of human causation and not naturally occurring cycles.

And here's the resulting seas level rise over the past 140 years:

Most of our global civilization is within a feet feet of the current sea level, and the sea level has already risen 9 inches, and the rise is accelerating every year.

There's enough ice at the rapidly melting polar ice caps to raise the sea level 216 feet. You do the math.

Case closed.

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You have black graffiti on your proxy chart that doesn't belong there. Overlaying instrumental temperatures on a proxy chart is the same as lying.

Either go proxy or go home.

PAGES2K: North American Tree Ring Proxies

PAGES2K (2017): Antarctic Proxies

The proxy charts are a joke.

the paleoclimate community, in apparent solidarity with Mann, ostentatiously flouted the 2006 NAS Panel recommendation to “avoid” stripbark chronologies in temperature reconstructions.

You can't get hockey sticks without stripbark chronologies.

End of story.

Thomas R. Morrison said:

No man - it's beyond any doubt a primarily human-caused problem: just look at the charts of cyclical temperature changes over geological timescales, and then look at the sharp vertical spike that's been happening in the last century or so. Not a natural phenomenon. Clearly a result of the industrial age. I wasted weeks of my life studying this subject in detail to respond to all the Koch-brothers-sponsored BS that people keep spouting at me about this topic. It's totally insane to think that we could burn about 1 trillion barrels of oil without making a substantial impact on the environment.

Click to expand...

Sadly, there are those that don’t want to believe we can destroy ourselves. They won’t acknowledge it until they can no longer deny it, and even then...

Same for aliens, people that want to believe it will believe, those that don’t will find everything wrong with the ETH.

Kchoo said:

Sadly, there are those that don’t want to believe we can destroy ourselves. They won’t acknowledge it until they can no longer deny it, and even then...

Same for aliens, people that want to believe it will believe, those that don’t will find everything wrong with the ETH.

Click to expand...

The problem with length of day to the climate change community is it is a physical measurement that they can't tamper with. It has to be measured and reported accurately or it affects navigation, communications, etc. It has to right.

The reason it is important, is that melted polar ice with virtually no moment of inertia moves to a liquid layer around the planet where half the water (30 lat to -30 lat) is 8000 miles off axis. Much like an ice skater opening her arms the earth has to slow down.

I actually modeled the effect as a shell over a sphere and it is pretty significant.

Here is the chart again (maintained by the Naval Observatory):


Discussion with Nils Axel Morner:

http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf

There’s another way of checking it, because if the radius of the Earth increases, because sea level is rising, then immediately the Earth’s rate of rotation would slow down. That is a physical law, right? You have it in figure-skating: when they rotate very fast, the arms are close to the body; and then when they increase the radius, by putting out their arms, they stop by themselves. So you can look at the rotation and the same comes up: Yes, it might be 1.1 mm per year, but absolutely not more. It could be less, because there could be other factors affecting the Earth, but it certainly could not be more. Absolutely not! Again, it’s a matter of physics

This is called Munk's Engima (after Walter Munk).

Here is his paper:
Twentieth century sea level: An enigma

The climate community can claim whatever they want, they can't fight physics.

Now we have in the last couple of hundred years destroyed about 80% of the rainforest. That has warmed the planet and caused climate change - if you talk to somebody from Brazil - their climate has gone from two seasons to 4. Because of the original equatorial high humidity CO2 has almost no effect at the equator. Water vapor is already saturating the CO2 bands and the effect is small. But deforestation is a different story.

The last interglacial there was significantly more rainforest than we had to begin with. That is why despite about 13% more insolation the climate was only about 2°C warmer.

The other thing is the claims of a 1 meter by 2100 sea level rise is simply rubbish.

That matches the highest sea level rise of the interglacial. When insolation was 50 W/m2 higher and polar temperatures were 6-9°C higher.

Just can't happen. The Antarctic core is actually cooling because it has a permanent temperature inversion.

The total greenhouse warming effect since 1900- based on the 2015 UCB downwelling radiation study at Oklahoma and Alaska (22 PPM = 0.2 W/m2 over 11 years) is about 1.3 W/m2.

That compares badly to 50 W/m2.

Not saying we can't destroy the planet. But plastic straws and CO2 isn't how we are going to do it.

I just want to say I really like this thread.

Shadowprophet said:

People want to Quote all kinds of Facts and figures about Global warming and Cooling and climate change. I never hear anyone speaking about how we are Currently in an Ice age.

No offense to anyone here, " I honestly didn't read the entire thread" But, I'm willing to be not one soul mentioned that "Hey We are currently in an interglacial period of an ice age" Ice age - Wikipedia
Global warming? We're in middle of an Ice Age
Ice age

I mean, People can Talk to me about Global warming, But we are still in an interglacial Ice age, and That's kind of a scientific fact though.

Click to expand...

This is part of the global warming debate that is hysterical.

When insolation (actual energy hitting the ground) has been up to 50 W/m2 higher - temperatures have been 3°C or less higher.

The planet (when the arctic wasn't isolated and there wasn't land at the south pole) has been 11°C warmer and at more or less a uniform temperature.

The claims by the global warming community that the temperature could rise 11°C because of CO2 are just irrational

The CO2 dropped because the planet got cold. The planet didn't get cold because the CO2 dropped.

There are about 38,000 GT of carbon (co2/3.67) in the ocean. CO2 has 20+ times the solubility of oxygen and the ocean can hold 3 times as much near 0 °C as it can at equatorial surface temperatures. And below 700 meters the ocean is pretty close to zero celcius.

There are only 720 GT of carbon in the atmosphere.

CO2 enters the ocean at the poles (mostly the Arctic) where the solubility is 3 times as high and exits at the equator.

Back to the warming. CO2 forcing is about 2.4 W/m2 or about 2/3 °C for a doubling (using data from a 2015 downwelling IR study).

The IPCC claims 1.5 - 4.5 °C. They also claim the CO2 level will reach 940+ (RCP 8.5) by 2100.

The peak CO2 level is going to be around 460 PPM. RCP 8.5 is 6-9 times higher than actual increase will be. This means their worst case 11°C is 4 x 6 or about 24 times too high. Further - the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenario is increasing viewed as impossible (it was written by the WWF and wrestlers don't know much about climate) and simulating it doesn't yield any predictive information.

11/24 equals about 0.5°C as a worst case increase. Even the IPCC doesn't make the case that a less than 3° C increase has more harm than benefit.

To get to 11°C warmer all the ice would have to melt and the land masses would have to be rearranged. Given the speed of tectonics and the energy required that isn't going to happen. Further the core of Antarctica is cooling and is so far below freezing that all loss is by sublimation.

It is hard to even make the case the Greenland core is warming. Much of the melt was caused by Iceland Volcanic ash and Chinese soot and without these sources the albedo is increasing (and melt declining).

I didn't mention the Himalayas (subtropical mountains) which act like a radiator.

But the current high albedo planet surface can't get much warmer.