Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

Queen will urge Britons to 'take pride' in their response to the coronavirus crisis and hail their 'quiet, good-humoured resolve' in the face of 'enormous changes' as she addresses the nation after 708 deaths, including a five-year-old, in one day

The Queen will at 8pm on Sunday deliver a rallying cry to the nation in which she expresses hope that the 'quiet, good-humoured resolve' of the British people will help to overcome the coronavirus crisis. In the televised broadcast, recorded in extraordinary circumstances in the White Drawing Room at Windsor Castle with a sole cameraman dressed in protective clothing, the 93-year-old monarch will confront the scale of the crisis, which has 'brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many, and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all.’

She will tell tens of millions of viewers: ‘I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say that the Britons of this generation were as strong as any. That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country.’ In only the fifth such address of her 68-year reign, the Queen will also thank NHS staff and other key workers. Prince Philip is understood to have advised on the tone and delivery of the message. The development comes as the nation suffered the worst day yet in the coronavirus crisis with 708 dead. Since the start of the outbreak there have been 41,903 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK with a total death toll of 4,313.

nivek said:

Queen will urge Britons to 'take pride' in their response to the coronavirus crisis and hail their 'quiet, good-humoured resolve' in the face of 'enormous changes' as she addresses the nation after 708 deaths, including a five-year-old, in one day

The Queen will at 8pm on Sunday deliver a rallying cry to the nation in which she expresses hope that the 'quiet, good-humoured resolve' of the British people will help to overcome the coronavirus crisis. In the televised broadcast, recorded in extraordinary circumstances in the White Drawing Room at Windsor Castle with a sole cameraman dressed in protective clothing, the 93-year-old monarch will confront the scale of the crisis, which has 'brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many, and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all.’

She will tell tens of millions of viewers: ‘I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say that the Britons of this generation were as strong as any. That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country.’ In only the fifth such address of her 68-year reign, the Queen will also thank NHS staff and other key workers. Prince Philip is understood to have advised on the tone and delivery of the message. The development comes as the nation suffered the worst day yet in the coronavirus crisis with 708 dead. Since the start of the outbreak there have been 41,903 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK with a total death toll of 4,313.

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I know a lot of people from over there, But I suppose you do too, It's my understanding that the royal family is relegated to mostly a superstar status. That they have no true connection to the actual government in many ways, Even top secret information isn't really revealed to them. So to put this into context, Wouldn't this be more or less like if Tom hanks Addressed America on the Coronavirus?

I mean, If someone had to throw a context to this? Thought That's an unfair analogy, She is the Queen, but, I mean, She wouldn't really have the power of say, someone Like an actual world leader has? Am I correct in thinking this?

Theres a joke in my country that when you go to hospital in the US, they will likely save you from death, but you may wish that you had died when the bill comes.

Shadowprophet said:

Wouldn't this be more or less like if Tom hanks Addressed America on the Coronavirus?

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Hardly even close, and careful now, you don't want to insult our British friends here...

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'People Are Not Complying': Chennai Market Bustling Despite Lockdown Measures

A market street in the east Indian city of Chennai was bustling on April 4, despite an ongoing nationwide lockdown. This footage, posted by a local journalist, shows the busy street on Saturday. It comes amid reports of overcrowding at meat and fish stalls in Chennai. Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a 21-day lockdown in India on March 25 in an effort to prevent the coronavirus from spreading.

Spaceman spiff said:

Unfortunately it seems like this was a statistical error. The Infections have continued, they seem to rising again after flattening for a week.

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Yesterday, according to Worldometer, Finland had only 97 new cases of Covid-19 whilst only losing 1 life, however today there are 267 new cases of Covid-19 and 5 deaths...Has anything changed to cause this spike?...

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Thomas R. Morrison said:

I hate to post bad news. Here's what I'm seeing - the growth rate of the virus within the US is still falling, but on March 31st the growth rate started to decline at a pretty anemic rate; the slope of the decline went from a nice and steep -3/1 slope about 10 days ago, to a pitiful -1/4 slope today. So now it looks like the US outbreak won't peak until mid-April. And the growth rate now is a multiplication factor of 3.25 per 8 days, and only very slowly dropping now.

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Sadly, I don't think that it is only the US where things are not going very well.

It seems that in almost all countries (except China) that have taken serious measures to deal with this epidemic, like lockdowns, the rate of new cases, rather than 'peaking' and then declining, seems to have switched from exponential to roughly linear growth. Italy, in lockdown since the 9th of March, is not seeing a marked reduction in its rate of new cases:


Spain, in lockdown since the 14th of March, is a similar story:


I worry that these expected peaks and declines are not going to come as quickly as even the experts are hoping. Maybe the figures are more promising if you do not consider the epidemic at the national level, but rather at the local authority level instead, because there are many smaller epidemics in each country of a substantial size, each at a different stage at any one time.

Even my favourite exemplar, South Korea, is showing a fairly uniform rate of new cases



Although, I don't know if these are perhaps due to a steady stream of infected arrivals from abroad. Worryingly, the CFR in Korea has risen to 1.7% of all cases, and 2.7% of cases with an outcome.

AD1184 said:

Sadly, I don't think that it is only the US where things are not going very well.

It seems that in almost all countries (except China) that have taken serious measures to deal with this epidemic, like lockdowns, the rate of new cases, rather than 'peaking' and then declining, seems to have switched from exponential to roughly linear growth. Italy, in lockdown since the 9th of March, is not seeing a marked reduction in its rate of new cases:
View attachment 9395

Spain, in lockdown since the 14th of March, is a similar story:
View attachment 9396

I worry that these expected peaks and declines are not going to come as quickly as even the experts are hoping. Maybe the figures are more promising if you do not consider the epidemic at the national level, but rather at the local authority level instead, because there are many smaller epidemics in each country of a substantial size, each at a different stage at any one time.

Even my favourite exemplar, South Korea, is showing a fairly uniform rate of new cases

View attachment 9398

Although, I don't know if these are perhaps due to a steady stream of infected arrivals from abroad. Worryingly, the CFR in Korea has risen to 1.7% of all cases, and 2.7% of cases with an outcome.

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In every graph posted we are not currently at the peak, Yes it sucks, It's not going away any time soon, but I hold hope that the worst part of the spread is behind us at this point and the decline continues.

Thomas R. Morrison said:

I hate to post bad news. Here's what I'm seeing - the growth rate of the virus within the US is still falling, but on March 31st the growth rate started to decline at a pretty anemic rate;

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I think this is possibly because the New York City epidemic peaked (or flattened out), whereas others around the country were just getting started.
COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

AD1184 said:

I think this is possibly because the New York City epidemic peaked (or flattened out), whereas others around the country were just getting started.
COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

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You have to account that less populated rural areas away from metropolis areas won't have spread like the more dense cities.

The spread physically can not and will not be as devastating in areas with fewer people to infect. I mean Panic and fear and dread can make people immune to logic but, No one could convince me places like Utah and Oklahoma physically can be hit as hard and NYC or LA.

The dread and fear has made people blind to the light, We are seeing the peak now I believe.

*Edit
The peak of the infection rate. Not the death toll. This is going to be ongoing for a while.

Did coronavirus leak from a research lab in Wuhan? Startling new theory is 'no longer being discounted' amid claims staff 'got infected after being sprayed with blood'

Ministers fear that the coronavirus pandemic might have been caused by a leak from a Chinese laboratory, The Mail on Sunday can reveal. Senior Government sources say that while 'the balance of scientific advice' is still that the deadly virus was first transmitted to humans from a live animal market in Wuhan, a leak from a laboratory in the Chinese city is 'no longer being discounted'.

One member of Cobra, the emergency committee led by Boris Johnson, said last night that while the latest intelligence did not dispute the virus was 'zoonotic' – originating in animals – it did not rule out that the virus first spread to humans after leaking from a Wuhan laboratory.

The member of Cobra, which receives detailed classified briefings from the security services, said: 'There is a credible alternative view [to the zoonotic theory] based on the nature of the virus. Perhaps it is no coincidence that there is that laboratory in Wuhan. It is not discounted.'Wuhan is home to the Institute of Virology, the most advanced laboratory of its type on the Chinese mainland.

The £30million institute, based ten miles from the infamous wildlife market, is supposed to be one of the most secure virology units in the world. The state-run People's Daily newspaper said in 2018 that it was 'capable of conducting experiments with highly pathogenic microorganisms' such as the deadly Ebola virus.

Scientists at the institute were the first to suggest that the virus's genome was 96 per cent similar to one commonly found in bats. But despite its reputation for high security, there have been unverified local reports that workers at the institute became infected after being sprayed by blood, and then carried the infection into the local population.

A second institute in the city, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control – which is barely three miles from the market – is also believed to have carried out experiments on animals such as bats to examine the transmission of corona viruses.

American biosecurity expert Professor Richard Ebright, of Rutgers University's Waksman Institute of Microbiology, New Jersey, said that while the evidence suggests Covid-19 was not created in one of the Wuhan laboratories, it could easily have with her own life' that the outbreak was not related to the lab. Despite the denials, Beijing has issued new laws that call for the improved management of viruses and for facilities to ensure 'biological safety'.

In 2004, a leak from a Chinese laboratory led to an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), killing one person and infecting nine others. The Chinese government said the leak was a result of negligence and five senior officials at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention were punished.

(more on the link)

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When I'm wrong I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.

yeah,, I'm still not giving up hope. But this is by no stretch of the imagination good news.

nivek said:

Not according to the report I posted, it states quite the opposite, that we are experiencing a steep uphill rate of infection...
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They've misspoken. What they meant to say was "a steep uphill number of infections," which is true and readily evident from the charts showing the total number of cases. The "rate of infections" is a totally different metric - the one that I've been charting using the CDC data. It's indisputable that the rate of infections has been dropping for weeks, while the number of infections continues to steeply climb. It's analogous to the difference between "velocity" and "acceleration" - when the acceleration is decreasing the velocity is still increasing; the velocity doesn't stop increasing until the acceleration reaches zero. Sadly, we're not there yet.

The rate of infection was very high from March 5-24, therefore by the last week of March so many people were infected that the number of daily new cases were huge even as the rate of growth dropped to its current and slowly declining factor of 3.25(n) every 8 days.

And 3.25(n) per 8-day interval is a manageable rate when the total number of cases is low...but it's an unmanageable rate when you already have >300K cases, because that still means that you're facing about 1 million cases in 8 days. It's much better than the growth rate we were seeing between March 5-24 when the growth factor was over 10(n) every 8 days...if that rate hadn't come down to the current levels then we'd been looking down the barrel of 3 million cases 8 days from now.

But it's still a really fugly situation. At the decline in the growth rate that we were seeing just last week, it looked like we could peak at around 500K cases in the US, then at least flatten out, if not actually decline from there. But the sudden shift in the growth rate totally screwed us. Now we're looking at >2-3 million cases, and at least 200K - 300K fatalities in the US. And that's probably an optimistic assessment, because like AD1184 pointed out, this pandemic doesn't seem to be acting like previous pandemics - instead of a fairly symmetrical bell-shaped curve in the number of cases, it seems to be reaching a plateau and moving forward at a level number of active cases. Hopefully that will change soon, because if it doesn't then this could go on for months at unmanageable hospitalization levels, and a corresponding increase in the case fatality rate.

nivek said:

I would have to see more evidence than a tweet to believe that...
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It's pretty simple: the US is the only country with a private "health insurance" industry, so roughly 3.5M Americans have just lost their healthcare because they lost their job - and most healthcare in the US is tied to the employer. Every other developed country in the world provides healthcare as a right, so they get treatment regardless of job status. It may not be quite as neat and tidy as the numbers in that tweet, but it definitely captures the fundamental problem of the rapacious private healthcare industry in the US compared to the vastly more humane socialist healthcare systems that all of our nation's closest allies have enjoyed for many decades now.

Shadowprophet said:

The peak of the infection rate. Not the death toll. This is going to be ongoing for a while.

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The infection rate peaked twice - around March 9th and March 22nd. It's been declining since March 23rd, but it seems to be leveling out now. The rate of growth is currently fairly low but at the scale of the epidemic now, even a modest growth rate translates into hundreds of thousands of fatalities.

Around the end of March it was looking like our social distancing measures were working well enough to spare the country from the worst-case scenario of overrun hospitals and mass graves near every major city all across the nation. But the decline in the rate of growth that we're seeing now is pointing to a best-case scenario of a quarter of a million dead, and that's probably a significantly conservative estimate.

nivek said:

Yesterday, according to Worldometer, Finland had only 97 new cases of Covid-19 whilst only losing 1 life, however today there are 267 new cases of Covid-19 and 5 deaths...Has anything changed to cause this spike?...

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That number jumped cause of the new testing thats been increased. Likely the total infections might be 20-30 times the official numbers since we dont have the capacity to test everyone. Also some carriers might not even have symptoms, which is a problem.

Thomas R. Morrison said:

They've misspoken. What they meant to say was "a steep uphill number of infections," which is true and readily evident from the charts showing the total number of cases. The "rate of infections" is a totally different metric - the one that I've been charting using the CDC data. It's indisputable that the rate of infections has been dropping for weeks, while the number of infections continues to steeply climb.

That's because the rate of infection was very high from March 5-25, so by the last week of March so many people were infected that the number of daily new cases were huge even as the rate of infection dropped to its current and slowly declining growth factor of 3.25 every 8 days.

And 3.25 per 8-day interval is a manageable rate when the total number of cases is low...but it's an unmanageable rate when you already have >300K cases, because that still means that you're facing 1 million cases in 8 days. It's much better than the rate we were seeing between March 5-25 when the growth rate was over 10 every 8 days - if that hadn't come down to the current levels then we'd been looking down the barrel of 3 million cases 8 days from now.

But it's still a really fugly situation. At the decline in the growth rate that we were seeing just last week it looked like we could peak at around 500K cases in the US, then at least flatten out, if not actually decline from there. But the sudden shift in the growth rate totally screwed us. Now we're looking at at least 2-3 million cases, and at least 200K - 300K fatalities in the US. And that's probably an optimistic assessment, because like AD1184 pointed out, this pandemic doesn't see to be acting like previous pandemics - instead of a fairly symmetrical bell-shaped curve in the number of cases, it seems to be reaching a plateau and moving forward at a level number of active cases. Hopefully that will change soon, because if it doesn't then this could go on for months at unmanageable hospitalization levels, and a corresponding increase in the case fatality rate.


It's pretty simple: the US is the only country with a private "health insurance" industry, so roughly 3.5 Americans have just lost their healthcare because they lost their job - and most healthcare in the US is tied to the employer. Every other developed country in the world provides healthcare as a right, so they get treatment regardless of job status. It may not be quite as neat and tidy as the numbers in that tweet, but it definitely captures the fundamental problem of the rapacious private healthcare industry in the US compared to the vastly most humane socialist healthcare systems that all of our nation;'s closest allies have enjoyed for many decades now.


The infection rate peaked twice - around March 9th and March 22nd. It's been trending down since March 23rd, but it seems to be leveling out now. The rate of growth is currently fairly low but at the scale of the epidemic now, even a modest growth rate translates into hundreds of thousands of fatalities.

Around the end of March it was looking like our social distancing measures were working well enough to spare the country from the worst-case scenario of overrun hospitals and mass graves near every major city all across the nation. But the decline in the rate of growth that we're seeing now is pointing to a best-case scenario of a quarter of a million dead, and that's probably a significantly conservative estimate.

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My thing Is, I keep looking at the graphs and every time it slacks, I keep thinking this is it, Finally some light at the end of the tunnel. It's what's been keeping me stable, That hope. But truly, Those graphs and charts aren't exactly a roadmap to the future. It's my hope that wont die, But. At the same time, Reality isn't made out of hopes and dreams.

WTF?...


Georgia reopens beaches despite coronavirus 'shelter-in-place' order

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nivek said:

WTF?...


Georgia reopens beaches despite coronavirus 'shelter-in-place' order

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To be fair, This is why when really important political events occur We ask Georgia last.

What's that?! Missiles are headed toward the pentagon? Quickly! Get Georgia on the phone!!!

nivek said:

WTF?...


Georgia reopens beaches despite coronavirus 'shelter-in-place' order

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You can bet your Buster Browns those beaches will be open. Clearly you don't understand Georgia's problems (to be fair very few do)

I'm not one for Goodwin's opinion pieces but liked this one

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-ma...dwin/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=mail_app

So many to blame for coronavirus crisis, so don’t bother: Goodwin
By Michael Goodwin April 4, 2020 | 11:07pm



As a deadly virus sweeps across America, it was inevitable that we would also suffer an outbreak of the blame game. With the body count soaring and the economy collapsing, finger pointing is in full bloom.

Never mind that all the blame in the world will not save a single life or create a job. The game must go on because politics is ultimately a zero-sum affair.

President Trump, of course, is the most common target, and his critics are the usual suspects. Democrats and the media are ganging up to create a narrative that people died because Trump failed to act fast enough.

“As the president fiddles, people are dying,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in announcing an investigation that smells like impeachment 2.0.

She and others cite the president’s reluctance in January and early February to fully grasp the threat of the coronavirus and delays in providing test kits.

They have a point, especially about the testing fiasco. But they conveniently ignore their own culpability.

First, the president was up to his neck in the flimsy Ukraine impeachment case Pelosi and the media cooked up. The final acquittal vote came on Feb. 6, but recall that the accusers, which included every Dem in Congress and the party’s presidential candidates, demanded additional witnesses. Had they gotten their way, the trial would have run through the end of February and maybe into March.

The second fact they ignore is that Trump already had declared a public health emergency over the coronavirus on Jan. 31, barred entry for most people who came from or visited China and put American travelers under quarantine. At the time, there were only seven known cases in the US, with zero deaths.

Trump’s decisions rocked travel and tourism businesses and rattled stock markets, but also kept out infected visitors who would have accelerated the calamity here.

The China restrictions were not popular among Dems, and the president’s second ban, which covered Europe and was announced on March 11, also drew scorn from the usual cabal.

The New York Times, which now insists the president acted too slowly, said then he acted “without evidence” in claiming European travelers were a threat. Reflecting its own bias and ignorance, the paper lumped Trump in with foreign leaders who shut borders and accused them all of xenophobia.

“The same denigration of science and urge to block outsiders has characterized leaders from China to Iran, as well as right-wing populists in Europe,” sneered Mark Landler, the Times’ London bureau chief.

As those examples show, the blame game cuts in all directions. If Trump is to be held accountable, he should share the dock with many others who failed to foresee the coming destruction.

Most of the big media outlets disgraced themselves by falling for the early lies from China and the World Health Organization about a relatively small number of deaths and the claim the virus was probably not spread by human-to-human contact.

In addition, the media mistakenly likened the coronavirus to the SARS outbreak of 2002, which also started in China and killed about 800 people worldwide. As of Saturday, the coronavirus has killed nearly 64,000 people.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health OrganizationAP
Much of what we know about what Congress knew comes from the outrageous stock sales of Sen. Richard Burr.

Reports say the North Carolina Republican, chair of the Intelligence Committee, got near-daily briefings on the coronavirus in early February. He co-authored an op-ed column on Feb. 7 that declared the nation well-prepared, a common view in Congress.

Yet within a week or so, Burr was unloading up to $1.72 million worth of stock in companies that would tank. By late February, he was privately telling donors the virus “is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history,” according to a recording obtained by NPR.

Three other senators also made big stock sales around the same time, dumping stocks that would suffer huge declines.

All four say they did nothing illegal, and perhaps that is true. But it’s definitely true they did nothing to warn the public about the looming nightmare. So save space for them in the blame-game dock.

State and local officials also have some explaining to do. Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio are forcefully demanding federal help, but neither did much to prepare for a pandemic.

Cuomo, now in his 10th year as governor, never built the stockpile of ventilators and intensive-care beds the state needs and massively underestimated the deadly virus.

Sen. Richard BurrAFP via Getty Images
“This isn’t our first rodeo,” Cuomo said confidently on March 2. “We are fully coordinated, and we are fully mobilized, and we are fully prepared to deal with the situation as it develops.”

Five days later, with most of the state’s 89 cases in Westchester County, Cuomo declared a state of emergency. On March 10, he ordered schools and houses of worship to close in New Rochelle, where the bulk of infected residents lived, and deployed the National Guard. Then he banned gatherings of more than 500 people.

It wasn’t until the third week of March, however, that Cuomo began a near-daily escalation of orders imposing tighter and wider restrictions.

On March 15, he closed schools in the city and some suburbs. On the 16th, he limited gatherings to 50 people and closed bars and restaurants.

On the 18th, he ordered businesses to keep 50 percent of their workers at home, then increased that to 75 percent the next day. On the 20th, he ordered all nonessential businesses to close.

Yet after all that and with more than 20,000 cases in the state, the governor insisted on March 23 that “many people will get the virus, but few will be truly endangered,” according to ABC News.

Just eight days later, on March 31, he conceded the obvious, saying: “We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful. It’s more dangerous than we expected.”

De Blasio, now in his seventh year at City Hall, was louder in his complaints and slower in his actions. He and the health commissioner downplayed risk and urged New Yorkers to attend Lunar New Year celebrations in Chinatown.

City Council Speaker Corey Johnson also gave false assurances. According to Jim Geraghty in National Review, Johnson said on Feb. 13 that fears of the coronavirus “are not based on facts and science. The risk of infection to New Yorkers is low. There is no need to avoid public spaces.”

Clearly, few people in public life will emerge unscathed from the blame game if we ask everyone the same questions: What did you know, when did you know it and what did you do about it?

On the other hand, mutual destruction is neither required nor desirable, and there is a better option. We can just skip the blame game for now and work together to help America get through this worst of times.

Think of that as the patriotic choice.

You so needed a one for all policy which could have occured. Spain should have followed suit with regioanl governances. Glad to be a under a more one for all hand, even if that hand is soft and mix messaged.

Staying at home unless for the four stated reasons is no longer a request, it's now an instruction lol.Bet that shook them up.

Shades of grey.

Global protocol I hope will be a consideration as there has been too many blunders here in the West. Our freedoms have become our failings. We don't take well to authority because of our sophistication. It becomes a mess and unclear where in India they will have a purpose built two yard stick to thrash you back indoors with.

Funny how one can easily think that the third world countries will spread it like the devil and some will but I think the strict hand will protect them well also.

There is something to not locking us down all of a sudden though, nice and slow for the ones who have such freedom and protection as they will be those who revolt and a snap shut for those who can be openly beaten as normal.

Still have good feeling that we will be seeing this out sooner than later.