It seems unlikely that the battery will last ten years, so does this decade-to-break-even estimate factor in the cost of battery replacement? Imagine if you had to replace the engine every five years or so on your ICE car.
To answer my own question, from reading the article, the answer appears to be no. The last paragraph is galling:
Maintenance and life-span
Electric cars often have lower recurring maintenance costs compared to gas vehicles, according to Robert Walden, founder of Vehicle Freak.
'When you swap a traditional engine for an electric motor, you're also saying goodbye to a lot of costly upkeep,' he said.
'Oil changes, timing belts, water pumps - it's a long list, and none of it applies to EVs. Less maintenance also equals more money in your pocket.'
The life expectancy of an electric car is also longer, he said, and battery technology continues to improve so cars last longer before the battery needs replacing.
'So while you might shell out more upfront, you're also investing in a longer-lived vehicle,' he added.
The need for (and cost of) battery replacement is not even mentioned. Without saying why, the supposed expert says that electric vehicles are 'longer-lived'. How is that proven, given that electric vehicles have not even been on the market for the age of my current vehicle. My current car is 19 years old, and I have no plans to get rid of it soon. 19 years ago, there were no credible road-going EVs for sale to the public, except perhaps milk floats.
The section on the cost of charging only mentions home charging, and not charging your electric vehicle on the road if you need to travel outside of its range. A fast charging station is going to charge you an amount approaching the cost of a tank of petrol. A 'fast' charging station only charges at about 150 kilowatts, whereas a petrol pump is putting energy into your tank at a rate of about 18 megawatts (and this is if the pump is constrained to half-a-litre a second, which is what they seem to be where I live, I am pretty sure they used to pump at a faster rate many years ago, and could pump faster if speed were ever prioritized as it is for electric vehicles). Not to mention that, the issue of the proliferation of charging infrastructure aside, the energy grids in all countries do not have the generating capacity to accommodate more than a small fraction of motorists driving EVs.
It also fails to mention the massive depreciation costs of electric vehicles. Not many people are in the market for a second-hand electric vehicle, and they lose up to 40% of their value in the first year. The mail covered this topic in another article the same day, however:
Exclusive figures shared with This is Money show that all 20 second-hand cars that have deflated in price across all fuel types are EVs - while not a single one appears in the list of the 20 biggest risers.
www.dailymail.co.uk
One other thing is that in many countries, EV owners are given all sorts of financial benefits that are likely going to be short-lived. For example, in Britain, EVs are (unjustly) exempt from paying vehicle excise duty, and they are also exempt from paying duty (and taxes on that duty) on the electricity they are charged with. The bulk of the cost of a tank of petrol in this country is from duty and taxes. Take away the duty and taxes, and a petrol car becomes a lot more competitive. The effect of this is that ICE vehicle owners are subsidizing the roads for EV owners, who are getting a (literal) free ride. This is an incentive by the government to get people to purchase EVs. However, this benefit is going to be withdrawn at some point in the future, and EV owners are then going to find that they have to pay for the privilege of using the roads the same as ICE vehicle owners. In Britain, vehicle excise duty is due to be paid by owners of EVs registered in 2017 and later from 2025:
This tax information and impact note is about the introduction of Vehicle Excise Duty for zero emission cars, vans and motorcycles from 2025. This will apply to new and existing electric vehicles.
www.gov.uk
In my opinion, you should have to pay excise duty in proportion to the vehicle's weight, as heavier vehicles put more wear on the road surface. Britain's road infrastructure is deteriorating, and one of the factors is the gradual increase in the weight of new vehicles over time. EVs tend to be substantially heavier than their ICE equivalents.
Soon, too, shall the government find a way to recoup lost fuel duty from EV owners. This might be in the form of dystopian per-mile road pricing, where every car (or at least, every electric car) is fitted with a transponder that informs the government exactly where it is at all times, given the difficulty of distinguishing between electricity consumed for EV use from that for domestic use. There was an effort by the Labour government in the '00s to implement road pricing with GPS transponders in all vehicles, this resulted in a petition which received a record number of signatures to the Downing Street website's then-recently launched online petition service.
However, I predict that the British government, and many other European governments, will launch a war against their citizens over the issue of electric vehicles and related matters.
