Why discovering aliens is a really BAD idea

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
I recently picked up a phrase "cognitive dissonance" so this is a good opportunity to use it because that line of thought is full of it.

First, if we discover life in our galaxy, that doesn't mean that they'll immediately come here. One reason they be more primitive then us, second reason it might take 100 or even 1,000 years to exchange messages.

Second, if aliens are more advanced then us, then aliens already had discovered us. Possibly even few million years ago. All we can do is discover that we had been discovered. In that case it might even turn out that aliens had already been here, and so on.
 

Todd Feinman

Show us the satellite pics...
I recently picked up a phrase "cognitive dissonance" so this is a good opportunity to use it because that line of thought is full of it.

First, if we discover life in our galaxy, that doesn't mean that they'll immediately come here. One reason they be more primitive then us, second reason it might take 100 or even 1,000 years to exchange messages.

Second, if aliens are more advanced then us, then aliens already had discovered us. Possibly even few million years ago. All we can do is discover that we had been discovered. In that case it might even turn out that aliens had already been here, and so on.
Exactly!! That is what we are / have been seeing for a long time.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I mean, there is evidence, then there is evidence. Is there life in the universe, of course there is. We ourselves are evidence of the probability of this.

Consider panspermia. When people consider if life may have evolved on other planets they tend to think it will be much like us. people tend to often overlook that humans aren't the only life on this planet, earth is teaming with life that I would consider highly intelligent. We have dogs that know how to make emergency phone calls. Yeah that's an extreme, but it has occurred.

Look at the intelligence that viruses and bacteria display just from mutating what works and what doesn't. We even debate what constitutes life and cognition itself. Are viruses and bacteria even a living organism? In many cases they don't meet the minimum criteria to be called living organisms, yet they, via trial and error and various hosts and mutations, spread and evolve. It's a wondrous universe out there and the reason we can't prove there is life out there beyond earth is simple. We simply don't understand enough about what life or intelligence is to recognize it.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
The truth is. We are looking for something that may be some what rare, are we looking out into the cosmos for actual intelligent life, or are we looking for us. A reflection of humanity.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
The truth is. We are looking for something that may be some what rare, are we looking out into the cosmos for actual intelligent life, or are we looking for us. A reflection of humanity.

From a physiological point of view generally speaking, I would surmise that we would hope to find intelligent life somewhat like ourselves since we are mainly searching planets similar to our own...However science fiction and the many contact reports opens up the possibilities of intelligent life much different than ourselves and that does instill some fear into many...I'm more of the cautious type, we don't know what's out there truly, and we should proceed cautiously, blatant advertising of our existence and sending out contact signals is very foolish...We aren't talking about unknowns in our world like past travelers have experienced, this endeavour of attempting contact with unknown species in the galaxy is a much different scenario and could cause our demise as a species worst case...

...
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
blatant advertising of our existence and sending out contact signals is very foolish.

Well, that's completely irrational view.

All the nearby civilisations, that are significantly more advanced then ourselves, know of our existence.

We don't need to send them any messages, because our planet Earth had been advertising that it can support life for at least last half a billion years. Just the gasses in our atmosphere, whose presence can be detected from millions of light years away, would tell advanced aliens straight away what's going on here. Just a presence of oxygen and water vapour in atmosphere of a planet would immediately tell one if planet is habitable or not. Not to mention all the green plant zones on the planet.

On the top of what planet is advertising itself comes human activity, like: disappearance of forests and their replacement with rectangular patterns of cultivated agricultural fields, appearance of night lights, radio emissions both from power grids and radio and TV, nuclear bombs etc.

If anybody is out there, they had plenty of time to find us. Most likely we are very well known and much studied location. I can imagine their scientist constantly writing scientific papers about our evolution.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Well, that's completely irrational view.

All the nearby civilisations, that are significantly more advanced then ourselves, know of our existence.

We don't need to send them any messages, because our planet Earth had been advertising that it can support life for at least last half a billion years. Just the gasses in our atmosphere, whose presence can be detected from millions of light years away, would tell advanced aliens straight away what's going on here. Just a presence of oxygen and water vapour in atmosphere of a planet would immediately tell one if planet is habitable or not. Not to mention all the green plant zones on the planet.

On the top of what planet is advertising itself comes human activity, like: disappearance of forests and their replacement with rectangular patterns of cultivated agricultural fields, appearance of night lights, radio emissions both from power grids and radio and TV, nuclear bombs etc.

If anybody is out there, they had plenty of time to find us. Most likely we are very well known and much studied location. I can imagine their scientist constantly writing scientific papers about our evolution.

Well that's a very irrational view based upon conjecture and hypothesis...

...
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Well that's a very irrational view based upon conjecture and hypothesis...

How could it be irrational to say that "aliens more advanced then us would had discovered us before we discovered them"? Better technology would more advanced civilisation advantage, wouldn't it?

As well, with two civilisations on the approximately the same technological level, one that is significantly older, say 10% or more, would have a statistical edge in discovering the other earlier.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
How could it be irrational
I didn't cherry pick one sentence, the whole text was not based upon any known facts...We have proof of what happens when an advanced civilization encounters a lesser advanced one right here on our planet...So to say we should be wary of sending out messages alerting unknown alien species to our presence here is very rational and wise...If there are advanced species out there in our galaxy that knows about us and haven't conquered us then we are fortunate, our messages may inadvertently fall into the hands of alien species who may not be so kind...

...
 

Standingstones

Celestial
You may remember Stephen Hawking warned us that we shouldn’t be sending out signals to try and contact extraterrestrials. We obviously didn’t listen to him.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
How could it be irrational to say that "aliens more advanced then us would had discovered us before we discovered them"? Better technology would more advanced civilisation advantage, wouldn't it?

As well, with two civilisations on the approximately the same technological level, one that is significantly older, say 10% or more, would have a statistical edge in discovering the other earlier.

That assumes there are aliens that observe us from nearby and not everyone believes that.

At one time there were canals on Mars and oceans on the Moon based on contemporary thinking and observation. It was only recently that we realized that no, there are no Venusians or Martians or the like with advanced civilizations in our solar system. Imagine the time spent imagining what those imaginary races were up to.

Even if we are being observed, and no argument from me that it appears that way, you then have to assume their motives and thought processes are anywhere akin to our own. Anthropomorphizing. Who says they give a **** what we do here even if they are watching ?
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
That assumes there are aliens that observe us from nearby and not everyone believes that.

At one time there were canals on Mars and oceans on the Moon based on contemporary thinking and observation. It was only recently that we realized that no, there are no Venusians or Martians or the like with advanced civilizations in our solar system. Imagine the time spent imagining what those imaginary races were up to.

Even if we are being observed, and no argument from me that it appears that way, you then have to assume their motives and thought processes are anywhere akin to our own. Anthropomorphizing. Who says they give a **** what we do here even if they are watching ?

OK, I thought about what you thought and found the reason for "cognitive dissonance" in our conversation ( I have to use that term as much a possible now :) )

We have here two different assumptions:
a.) YOURS: broadcast messages in all directions without knowing if aliens are out there,
b.) MINE: send a specific message in a specific direction once we found some aliens or just a planet with life.

I wrote above under assumption that we have found aliens and wanted to contact them. Broadcasting into empty space is a bit like deliberately dialling a phone number that doesn't exist. One can do it of for fun, or if for sake of some bluff. But one wouldn't do it for any serious reason.
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
At one time there were canals on Mars

. . . you are being kind, not mentioning how long ago that was.

I remember as a teenager, in late 60's, reading about "canals on Mars' and even actively speculating about Martians and Venusians. From today's perspective its really weird how that idea is disconnected from reality.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
'not long ago, compared to the accounts of weird things in the sky that go back millennia.

I grew up with paper mache planets hanging on strings in my grade school classrooms - and Pluto was still a planet. Now we have high definition pictures of it and have been landing on asteroids, snatching hunks of them away for study. Unbelievable. No, no intelligent dragons with 'voders on Venus for sure.

An no, I am not advocating deliberately broadcasting anything however you're right, we've already been doing so since we could so this is a case of closing the barn door after the horse has run away. I'm an old telephone guy - you dial an invalid number and you get a SIT - Special Information Tone .... the number you have dialed is invalid. Please check the number and dial again. I used to put those damned things in :) Far more than you get from yelling out the window into interstellar space.
 

michael59

Celestial
How could it be irrational to say that "aliens more advanced then us would had discovered us before we discovered them"? Better technology would more advanced civilisation advantage, wouldn't it?

As well, with two civilisations on the approximately the same technological level, one that is significantly older, say 10% or more, would have a statistical edge in discovering the other earlier.
Because he's from the USA. If they didn't think of it first, then it didn't happen yet. lol ;)
 

Dejan Corovic

As above, so bellow
Because he's from the USA. If they didn't think of it first, then it didn't happen yet. lol ;)

yeah, there was that famous movie in which Americans captured German WWII submarine and got into a possession of the Enigma coding machine. While everybody knows that in real world it was Brits who stole it from German submarines and it was actually Poles who deciphered it. For the first 50 years Americans couldn't even run their own space program without Germans :).
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
How the U.S. Cracked Japan's 'Purple Encryption Machine' at the Dawn of World War II

How the U.S. Cracked Japan's 'Purple Encryption Machine' at the Dawn of World War II​

By
Alberto-Perez

PublishedMarch 22, 2013


When one thinks about cryptography or encryption in World War II, the first thing that comes to mind is the Enigma Machine used by the Nazis, whose code was broken by the Allies and used as a secret tactical advantage. But what many people don’t know is that just before World War II, the Japanese also developed a series of encryption devices that improved upon the Enigma Machine and were used to transport their top level military secrets. Here's the unknown story of how U.S. intelligence was able to crack the Japanese Purple Machine.

Upon the trust of Hitler and other German officials, Japanese Baron Hiroshi Oshima bought a commercial Enigma Machine from the Germans in hopes of developing a new version for the Japanese. This effort resulted in the creation of a new “enigma machine,” code-named “Red” by the Americans. The Japanese Navy used it from about 1931 to 1936, when the device’s cryptographic method was broken by the U.S. Signal Intelligence Service. Unfortunately for the U.S., the decryption of Red was not kept very secret and the Japanese became suspicious.

Soon after, the Japanese began creating a new system to encipher their messages. In 1937, the Japanese created the “97-shiki O-bun In-ji-ki” or “97 Alphabetical Typewriter,” named for its creation on the Japanese year 2597. This device was better known by its U.S. code-name, “Purple”.
The Purple Machine was made up of two typewriters as well as an electrical rotor system with a 25 character alphabetic switchboard. Like the Enigma Machine, the first typewriter was the method in which the plaintext, or unencrypted message, could be manually inputted. The typewriter was built to be compatible with English, Romaji, and Roman, adding a level of mystery through language choice.

But unlike the Enigma Machine, which presented the text in the form of blinking lights, Purple used a second electric typewriter, which would type the cipher text, or encrypted message, onto a piece of paper. This was a huge advancement to the Enigma Machine, which would require two people to operate (one typing and one to record the projections) because it only required one person to operate and would reduce human errors. The only drawback to this was in the increased size and weight of the Purple Machine, which rendered it unsuitable for use in combat locations.
The Purple Machine enciphered the messages with the use of its four rotors and switchboard. Like the Enigma Machine, the machine would not only have an unknown method of encryption, but also a secret key that was changed on a daily basis. This meant that even if a Purple Machine was stolen, it would be useless without the key of the day.
Additionally, as the key changed every day, code breakers would not be able to find patterns in messages sent over several days. The daily key would be inputted into the device by the arrangement of the switchboard and rotors. The switchboard contained 25 connections, which could be arranged into 6 pairs of connections, yielding over 70,000,000,000,000 possible arrangements which would determine the method of encryption.
Not only that, the rotors could be arranged in various starting positions that would also vary the encryption method. The rotors of the machine were “stepping-switches,” which would rearrange themselves as each letter was inputted and scrambled the alphabet used for the next letter. The Purple Machine would use hundreds of thousands of cipher alphabets before it would repeat one, thus eliminating any obvious patterns in the cipher text. This made the Purple Machine — just like the Enigma Machine — exceptionally difficult to crack.
In order to decipher a message, the switchboard and rotors would need to be set with a key inverse to that of the key used to encipher. The cipher text would then be plugged into the first typewriter and the machine would type the plaintext.
The Purple cipher was used to send secretive messages overseas mostly to diplomats and military officials in Washington, Berlin, and London where Japan did not want unintended recipients snooping around. Breaking the Purple Machine was a daunting task for many reasons other than the complexity of the code itself. While trying to break a code, the more cipher text the code breaker has, the easier his/her task. As the messages were being sent into the U.S. and England, it would have been easy for the governments to seize the messages.
Unfortunately, because the machine was new and still not mass produced, only the most secret military messages were being sent, and code breakers had a very limited amount of cipher text to work with. However, because the code senders were inexperienced with the new system, some messages were sent in both the Purple cipher as well as the broken Red cipher, making it possible for the texts to be compared. Additionally, as time passed, the Purple code was used more often and the U.S. had a plethora of cipher text to work with.
In 1939, cryptography expert William Friedman was hired by the U.S. Army to work on breaking the Purple cipher. Eighteen months into his work Friedman suffered a mental breakdown and was institutionalized. Fortunately, he was able to make some progress before this and, using his incomplete work, other members of his team were able to make continued progress. A substantial chunk of the code was broken, and even though a Purple Machine had never been seen by American code breakers, eight functional replicas of the Machine were created. Eventually, Purple Machine’s method of encryption was completely discovered. This, however, did not mean that the messages could be broken because the daily keys being used were still a mystery to code breakers.
In time, Lt. Francis A. Raven discovered a pattern being used by the Japanese in their daily keys. He noticed that each month was broken into three ten day segments in which a pattern was discerned. With the final touches made to the puzzle by Lt. Raven, the Purple cipher was effectively broken and Japanese secrets were exposed.
The Purple Cipher was one of the most complex and well developed cryptographic methods of its time, and although it was eventually cracked, it kept top secret Japanese messages from prying eyes for almost two years during World War II. After a great effort by U.S. cryptanalysis the code was broken and used against its makers, tracking Japanese Naval troop movement as well as other military communications. Unlike the Red Cipher, the U.S. tried taking full advantage of this by keeping it a well-guarded secret from the Japanese and its allies so that the messages would continue to be sent in the broken code. The U.S. ceased and broke a multitude of Japanese secret messages, even some containing the plans for the attack on Pearl Harbor which could have been used to prepare. However, as history reveals, not all of these were used to their full potential.
Sources: Balciunas, Marijus. (2004). Japan’s Purple Machine | Japanese Purple Cipher. Cipher Machines | PURPLE, CORAL, and JADE.
This post originally appeared at Wonders & Marvels. It's also part of a series of essays on the history of cryptography produced by students at Vanderbilt University. The students wrote these essays for an assignment in a first-year writing seminar taught by mathematics instructor Derek Bruff. The essays are shared here, in part, to give the students an authentic and specific audience for their writing. For more information on this cryptography seminar.
Images: Duke University, Edwards Air Force Base.
 

pigfarmer

tall, thin, irritable
yeah, there was that famous movie in which Americans captured German WWII submarine and got into a possession of the Enigma coding machine
what movie is that?

I know the Brits weren't too happy when we took U-505 away from the very angry Germans inside it becaue of their possession of the Enigma machine. This sub is in Chicago, you can take a tour. And hoepfully not get shot while in the city.

Defeating the Sharks: The Capture of U-505

Defeating the Sharks: The Capture of U-505
4 June 1944

1557501029154.jpg


Captain Daniel V. Gallery, commanding officer of USS Guadalcanal (CVE-60), on the bridge of his prize, U-505, prior to the boat being taken in tow by his escort carrier. Note the submarine's emblem (scallop shell) and the large U.S. flag flying over the German naval ensign (80-G-49176).

On 4 June 1944, a U.S. Navy hunter-killer group organized around USS Guadalcanal (CVE-60) captured the German Type IXC submarine U-505. This was the first time that the U.S. Navy had captured an enemy vessel at sea since the 19th century.
The Navy task group was commanded by Captain Daniel V. Gallery, USN, of Guadalcanal, and was comprised of the escort carrier and five destroyer escorts: Pillsbury (DE-133), Pope (DE-134), Flaherty (DE-135), Chatelain (DE-149), and Jenks (DE-665).
The action took place in the Atlantic, approximately 150 miles off the coast of Rio De Oro in Western Sahara, Africa. U-505 was detected by sonar and, after depth-charge attacks by Chatelain in which the submarine’s rudder was jammed, its auxiliary rudder controls disabled, and aft compartments were flooded, the boat surfaced and was taken under naval gunfire. Convinced that the submarine was about to sink, the commanding officer, Oberleutnant zur See (Lieutenant) Harald Lange, ordered his crew to abandon ship, during which the standard scuttling procedures were only partially carried out. As its crew was being picked up, U-505 was boarded by U.S. Navy personnel from Pillsbury led by Lieutenant Junior Grade Albert L. David, who secured sensitive materials and succeeded in closing scuttling valves and disarming scuttling charges (David was later awarded the Medal of Honor for the intrepidity and gallantry of his actions). Flooding was contained and the submarine’s diesel engines shut down. U-505 was taken into tow and, after a concerted damage control effort that eventually succeeded in recharging the boat’s batteries and bringing it to its proper trim, was brought into Bermuda on 19 June.
Despite the immense intelligence value of the recovered classified publications, codebooks, an Enigma cipher machine with up-to-date cipher rotors, and communications equipment, the relatively visible salvage of the submarine was controversial within U.S. Navy circles at the time. U-505 was one of six U-boats captured by the Allies during World War II. Any indication to the Germans that any of their submarines had been captured rather than lost would have set back or even negated vital Allied codebreaking activities.
After the war and following many detours, U-505 eventually found its final resting place at the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry, where the boat was painstakingly restored. It was designated a National Historic Landmark in 1989 and is one of only two Type IXC U-boats still in existence.
—Carsten Fries, NHHC Communition and Outreach Division, May 2019
 
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