Deadly Wuhan Coronavirus

AD1184

Celestial
[...] The evening of the 16th was the date of our lockdown, and six days seems like a reasonably long doubling time, pre-lockdown, for this disease), then there may have been a million or more cases in the country by the time that Sir Patrick spoke.
I misremembered here. The date of our lockdown was actually the 23rd of March. The 16th was the date on which government advice was issued for us all not to socialize, not to visit restaurants, pubs, cinemas, theatres, etc, and to work from home if able.
 
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pepe

Celestial
Meta discussion is a new term for me, always learning and hope to live long enough to be able to use it on someone.

It's posh talk for a row yeah ? Sounds like something a disfunctional family would get up to every night, come to think of it i had a two year meta discussion with a woman I was with. Never actually held the original message at any time and became a "yeah but" game of pong that neither lost or neither won.

Covid fatigue syndrome will not better my resolve.
 
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AD1184

Celestial
Britain's current death toll exceeding five thousand suggests that there were in the vicinity of half a million infections four weeks before those figures were accurate. (Reports are that there are several days' delay in the reporting of deaths in this country, and I assume that there is an overall infection fatality rate of 1%. If the Lancet study figure of 0.66% I mentioned several posts ago is accurate, then there would have been about three-quarters of a million infected.)

This exceeds by an order of magnitude the estimate given by the government's Chief Scientific Adviser, Patrick Vallance, on the 17th of March to the House of Commons' Health and Social Care Committee, when he said that 55,000 might be infected at that point (the official count on that date, three weeks ago today, was 1,950). If we assume that the cases doubled in the seven days between the 10th of March and the 17th (the evening of the 16th was the date of our lockdown, and six days seems like a reasonably long doubling time, pre-lockdown, for this disease), then there may have been a million or more cases in the country by the time that Sir Patrick spoke.

Up to 55,000 people could be infected with coronavirus in UK, government says
Today's figures have pushed the death toll over 6,000 in this country. So it is more likely that there were 1.2-1.8 million infections at the time that Patrick Vallance told MPs that there were likely 55,000 cases, a figure which itself probably sounded unbelievably too many to most at that time, with an official count of only 1,950. But it was probably an underestimate by a factor of twenty or more, and the official case count was underreporting the amount of infections by a factor between 500 and 1000.
 

AD1184

Celestial
It's posh talk for a row yeah ?
No. By meta-discussion, I mean a discussion about a discussion, rather than about the subject of the discussion. i.e. This thread is supposed to be about the coronavirus pandemic, but people have instead been talking about the thread itself lately within it. The prefix meta- means beyond in this case, like in the word metaphysics.

Asking Google to define "meta", it says that it is not just a prefix, but also a word with this meaning:
upload_2020-4-7_21-17-9.png

This thread does not just discuss the coronavirus, but also the people who discuss the coronavirus in this thread.
 

nivek

As Above So Below


That is what's being reported by China and possibly not accurate, worldometer isn't showing any information on Chinese deaths today but is showing there were 39 new infections 'reported' yesterday and 32 'reported' today, the word reported being emphasized...Sorry, I have little trust in the Chinese government of being honest through all of this mess, then they go and sell back to Italy medical supplies that Italy gave them free, and I heard that the goods were still in the same Italian crates too, how pathetic...

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
No. By meta-discussion, I mean a discussion about a discussion, rather than about the subject of the discussion. i.e. This thread is supposed to be about the coronavirus pandemic, but people have instead been talking about the thread itself lately within it. The prefix meta- means beyond in this case, like in the word metaphysics.

Asking Google to define "meta", it says that it is not just a prefix, but also a word with this meaning:
View attachment 9427

This thread does not just discuss the coronavirus, but also the people who discuss the coronavirus in this thread.

Indeed, many larger threads seem to evolve to include this aspect, for lack a better phrase, it seems inevitable lol...

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Today's figures have pushed the death toll over 6,000 in this country. So it is more likely that there were 1.2-1.8 million infections at the time that Patrick Vallance told MPs that there were likely 55,000 cases, a figure which itself probably sounded unbelievably too many to most at that time, with an official count of only 1,950. But it was probably an underestimate by a factor of twenty or more, and the official case count was underreporting the amount of infections by a factor between 500 and 1000.

On one hand it's kind of disturbing because it shows how infectious this virus truly is but on the other hand it shows its not quite as deadly as assumed, without belittling the severity...No matter what the death percentage ends up being for his virus I still do not want to roll that dice and take a risk of exposing myself, it could likely be the last...

...
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I know I've been acting out lately, I want you guys to know, Nobody knows what kind or pressure I'm under, I have a wife that Travels all over Kentucky meeting peoples families and their homes to make determinations, Then she fucking comes home and gets mad at me if I won't kiss on her.

I don't like fighting and arguing so I do, And She knows how I feel about it, I've had arguments with her about it. I'm going to catch this, She's going to see to it that if she catches it I do too.

I'm so beside myself angry about that. You guys don't understand what it's like to be under this kind of pressure.
I hate this. Like Enough to burn the house down just to get away. I hate this.
 

pepe

Celestial
No. By meta-discussion, I mean a discussion about a discussion, rather than about the subject of the discussion. i.e. This thread is supposed to be about the coronavirus pandemic, but people have instead been talking about the thread itself lately within it. The prefix meta- means beyond in this case, like in the word metaphysics.

Asking Google to define "meta", it says that it is not just a prefix, but also a word with this meaning:
View attachment 9427

This thread does not just discuss the coronavirus, but also the people who discuss the coronavirus in this thread.

Logged it, thanks.

A discussion about a discussion that can become personal does still have a domestic undertone. I'm A symptomatic and just get a basic sense of the meaning that reflects in a common perspective of situational life.

Review the reviewers who review things.


Signs of cracks appearing by going in on itself. I've lived it.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
That is what's being reported by China and possibly not accurate, worldometer isn't showing any information on Chinese deaths today but is showing there were 39 new infections 'reported' yesterday and 32 'reported' today, the word reported being emphasized...Sorry, I have little trust in the Chinese government of being honest through all of this mess, then they go and sell back to Italy medical supplies that Italy gave them free, and I heard that the goods were still in the same Italian crates too, how pathetic...

...

Here's a screen shot from worldometer of today's numbers, it's only about 5 pm eastern standard time in the eastern US so the numbers for the US will be larger for today than whats showing now on this list...France has spiked as well as the UK...

2020_04_07_16.51.58-1.jpg
 

pepe

Celestial
I know I've been acting out lately, I want you guys to know, Nobody knows what kind or pressure I'm under, I have a wife that Travels all over Kentucky meeting peoples families and their homes to make determinations, Then she fucking comes home and gets mad at me if I won't kiss on her.

I don't like fighting and arguing so I do, And She knows how I feel about it, I've had arguments with her about it. I'm going to catch this, She's going to see to it that if she catches it I do too.

I'm so beside myself angry about that. You guys don't understand what it's like to be under this kind of pressure.
I hate this. Like Enough to burn the house down just to get away. I hate this.

If she has it and lives with you, you will get it without kissing so I would work on that basis and keep your relationship smooth for that reason.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
If she has it and lives with you, you will get it without kissing so I would work on that basis and keep your relationship smooth for that reason.
Thank you!!! Thank you!! Again, Your wisdom benefits me greatly, Thank you Brother
 

AD1184

Celestial
On one hand it's kind of disturbing because it shows how infectious this virus truly is but on the other hand it shows its not quite as deadly as assumed, without belittling the severity...No matter what the death percentage ends up being for his virus I still do not want to roll that dice and take a risk of exposing myself, it could likely be the last...
It is still scary, because 1% of a very large number is still a large number. Your number of deaths today only tells you how far the virus spread up until about a month ago, and you don't know for sure how far it has travelled in the interim, or whether the measures taken have had the desired effect.
 

Shadowprophet

Truthiness
I know I'm not on anyone's well-behaved list today, I don't deserve to be. I found this weird thing, though.

African Americans more likely to die from coronavirus illness, early data shows

African Americans more likely to die from coronavirus illness, early data shows

(Reuters) - Early data from U.S. states shows African Americans are more likely to die from COVID-19, highlighting longstanding disparities in health and inequalities in access to medical care, experts said.

BB12eDYR.img


© Getty Emergency Medical Technicians bring a patient into Wyckoff Hospital in the Borough of Brooklyn on April 6, 2020, in New York. - New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Monday extended shutdown in the epicenter of America's deadly coronavirus pandemic until near the end of the month. Cuomo said the COVID-19 death rate in New York was "effectively flat" for the past two days but announced that schools and non-essential businesses must stay shut until April 29. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images)

In Illinois, black people make up about 30% of the state's cases and about 40% of its coronavirus-related deaths, according to statistics provided by the state's public health agency. However, African Americans make up just 14.6% of the state's population.

Bing COVID-19 tracker: Latest numbers by country and state

In Michigan, black people account for 40% of the state's reported deaths, according to data released by the state, but its population is only 14% African American.


Is this Bullshit? Is this True? I've looked on the net, There are a lot of sources for this story but they all trace back to this Reuter's place.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
 

nivek

As Above So Below
Here's a screen shot from worldometer of today's numbers, it's only about 5 pm eastern standard time in the eastern US so the numbers for the US will be larger for today than whats showing now on this list...France has spiked as well as the UK...

View attachment 9428

Now the time is 6:49 EST, an hour and forty minutes later and over a 150 more deaths in the US, I do not know how often the site updates it's data...

2020_04_07_18.48.00-1.jpg

It is still scary, because 1% of a very large number is still a large number. Your number of deaths today only tells you how far the virus spread up until about a month ago, and you don't know for sure how far it has travelled in the interim, or whether the measures taken have had the desired effect.

Yes indeed we are dealing with a large population, very large numbers, I read of men 15 years younger than myself dropping dead in 3 days or 6 days and it's very disconcerting...Don't get me wrong, I'm not paranoid about his crisis and I sleep at night just fine, but a pandemic of this magnitude occurring in my lifetime is astounding...My inner considerations have changed because of this once in a lifetime event and some timetables of my inner work have been moved up in preparation for what may come, and outwardly I do have all my affairs in order, my Will and beneficiaries locked in, just in case...The virus has been creeping into the area to which I live, and we are now locally counting deaths attributed to the virus, it's close and I find myself starting to dread doing what we used to take for granted, getting some groceries or putting gasoline in the car or even going to work...The percentages are low but the numbers are high, it could be worse, but also, it could have been better...

...
 
Now the time is 6:49 EST, an hour and forty minutes later and over a 150 more deaths in the US, I do not know how often the site updates it's data...

View attachment 9430



Yes indeed we are dealing with a large population, very large numbers, I read of men 15 years younger than myself dropping dead in 3 days or 6 days and it's very disconcerting...Don't get me wrong, I'm not paranoid about his crisis and I sleep at night just fine, but a pandemic of this magnitude occurring in my lifetime is astounding...My inner considerations have changed because of this once in a lifetime event and some timetables of my inner work have been moved up in preparation for what may come, and outwardly I do have all my affairs in order, my Will and beneficiaries locked in, just in case...The virus has been creeping into the area to which I live, and we are now locally counting deaths attributed to the virus, it's close and I find myself starting to dread doing what we used to take for granted, getting some groceries or putting gasoline in the car or even going to work...The percentages are low but the numbers are high, it could be worse, but also, it could have been better...
...
It's hard to believe that there were only 30 reported cases in the US on March 1st, only 5 weeks ago, and we're going to have over 400,000 cases by day's end. That's a growth factor of over 13,000(n) in 5 weeks. I shudder to think what that number will be in another 5 weeks, because even though we've brought the growth factor down enormously in the last couple of weeks, we seem to have leveled out around a growth factor of 2.7(n) each 8 days. Here's what that looks like if we don't bring it down any further:

1,065,385 - April 15
2,876,539 - April 23
7,766,656 - May 1
20,969,970 - May 9
56,618,922 - May 17

At a case fatality rate of 1% that translates to over half a million deaths.
 

nivek

As Above So Below
It's hard to believe that there were only 30 reported cases in the US on March 1st, only 5 weeks ago, and we're going to have over 400,000 cases by day's end. That's a growth factor of over 13,000(n) in 5 weeks. I shudder to think what that number will be in another 5 weeks, because even though we've brought the growth factor down enormously in the last couple of weeks, we seem to have leveled out around a growth factor of 2.7(n) each 8 days. Here's what that looks like if we don't bring it down any further:

1,065,385 - April 15
2,876,539 - April 23
7,766,656 - May 1
20,969,970 - May 9
56,618,922 - May 17

At a case fatality rate of 1% that translates to over half a million deaths.

This points out another aspect of this pandemic which is very disturbing, by how fast its all happening...

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
I read reports that imply Italy is getting so much better now, really?...over 600 deaths in 24 hours is better?...has that become an acceptable loss for the news media, or maybe they're trying to sound more positive to lift the spirits, or maybe it was just poor choice of words?...To me that is not better, its terrible, granted there were higher numbers of deaths in Italy a few days earlier, but I don't think the conditions in Italy are any better yet...

...
 

nivek

As Above So Below
USS Theodore Roosevelt WILL evacuate and quarantine its 4,000 crew on Guam after unprecedented plea by captain of the aircraft carrier that sailors could die as coronavirus cases QUADRUPLE on board

The 4,000 sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt are to be evacuated from the nuclear warship a week after at least 25 positive cases of coronavirus were identified on board and the ship was forced to dock in Guam. Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Tuesday that the Navy is working with the captain of the ship, its medical officer and the government in Guam to bring the sailors to shore as quickly as possible but there currently not enough beds available.

The announcement came after a letter from the ship's captain Brett Crozier pleaded with the Pentagon to let the bulk of its 4,000-person crew off the warship so they can quarantine safely, warning that 'sailors do not need to die'. The Navy is now working to identify sailors who are clear of coronavirus who will be able to maintain the ship's functions while the rest of the crew are taken into quarantine, as officials battle to ensure the United States is protected while also protecting the safety of its personnel.


26507348-0-image-a-11_1585345704325.jpg


26643944-8173797-image-a-11_1585692340706.jpg

Fired captain of USS Theodore Roosevelt tests positive for coronavirus as it's revealed top US commanders 'were opposed to his dismissal but were OVERRULED by Navy secretary because Trump wanted him gone over letter'

Captain Brett Crozier, the officer who was relieved of command of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt after a letter warning of a coronavirus outbreak on board the ship leaked to the press, has tested positive for COVID-19. Two Naval Academy classmates of Crozier who remain close to the family revealed the diagnosis. Admiral Michael Gilday (left), the chief of naval operations, and General Mark Milley (middle top right), the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believed that the Navy should have allowed an investigation into the letter written by Crozier (left top right) to run its course. Defense Secretary Mark Esper initially sided with the officers. But Esper eventually yielded to Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly (right top right), who favored immediately dismissing Crozier from his post in command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt (bottom right) because he believed that is what President Trump wanted, according to The Washington Post.

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Another bizarre twist in this story:

...

Bungling Navy Secretary Thomas Modly QUITS after flying 8,000 miles to Guam to board USS Theodore Roosevelt and smear fired Captain Crozier as 'naive' and 'stupid' for trying to protect sailors from coronavirus

Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly resigned on Tuesday as pressure mounted on President Donald Trump's administration to take action in the wake of Modly's profanity-laced tirade to the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Modly submitted his resignation letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Tuesday after meeting with him one-on-one, Politico reported. That letter was later accepted. Acting Undersecretary of the Army, James McPherson, has been tapped by Pentagon officials to succeed Modly in the Navy spot, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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