nivek
As Above So Below
Only thing I know is that global warming equals more voilent weather...
I wonder if they are predicting these storms from warming models or actual probabilities?...
Only thing I know is that global warming equals more voilent weather...
the version of warming that we are told by the news says it is more violent,Only thing I know is that global warming equals more voilent weather...
the version of warming that we are told by the news says it is more violent,
but if you look at history at warm times they are nice stable weather.
the reason the warming and cooling happens is energy from the sun.
here are the reasons why it happens as history shows us.
lots of sun energy causes warming, and the way it does this is by expanding the upper atmosphere,
that causes more insulation and more room for weather systems to happen, also it shields from cosmic rays that make clouds, so it is sunnier. makes for a fantastic place for plants to live.
when solar output drops, the upper atmosphere collapses and the cosmic rays are let in, so there is less insulation, more clouds, and less room for the weather to happen. so, less sun, cooler, and more random weather.
Only thing I know is that global warming equals more voilent weather...
Only thing I know is that global warming equals more voilent weather...
They predict how violent a hurricane season will be by 30 years of statistical predictors with seasons that are similar is sea level pressure and air pressure in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The prediction of how violent a hurricane season will be is really just a guess. Many times they have called for an above average hurricane season and it becomes a historically low. Weather changes all the time, that is why I don't put any stock into long range weather models.
Yes and no. As casual pointed out it reduces the polar equatorial temputure differential. Warmer tempurtures could increase the amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere. It could effect storm formation around the mid latitudes like last years very violent hurricane season. Global warming may decrease the temputure at the poles and the equator which would decrease the amount of storms but make what storms do form very violent.
I guess my real bias is after all that is that if you get ready for warming, and you get cooling, you die
if you get ready for cooling (or nothing), then you are just fine.
Well...
We won't be testing that theory this year.
The area of formation and near the coast is colder than normal. I believe it was quoted as coldest in 18 years.
Last year had above normal sea surface temperatures.
That is just for the probable area of formation and that is, in most cases the mid latitudes. This does not account for the northeast seaboard which is not in the "probable" area of statistics and probable outcome of the weather models that are used. In my opinion though, this will not be a major hurricane season like last year. Wouldn't rule out some big boys though later in the season.
Temperature profile could change significantly during the summer.
We are going into a weak El Nino. Does that make hurricanes more or less likely?
A weak El Nino is a toss up. It warms the ocean in the equatorial Pacific, but at the same time increases wind sheer in that same area that is favored for development. So when storms do form in years where there is El Nino influence they need to find that "sweet spot" to avoid that wind sheer so it can undergo rapid cyclonic development and become your category 4 and 5's. But in most cases, the amount of named hurricanes increases, the amount of violent long lived hurricanes decreases during years of El Nino influence.
Starting from below normal temperature water (except for a diagonal stripe far off the coast) I would expect a below average season.
More than likely quieter in the Atlantic because of cooler water temp and the weak El Nino creates wind sheer in the Atlantic, but a much more active Pacific season because El Nino alters the sheer in such a way in the Pacific that it creates a breeding ground for violent Typhoons.
California (which is always bitching) is bitching about drought again - a good hurricane should cure that.
It is amazing how few hurricanes walk up the Baja peninsula to hit California.
Is it the California Current that causes this?
We are going into a weak El Nino.
Was he beat up by La Niña ?